NFL 2014 Week 15 Predictions

Week 15 Predictions

Falcons +3 over Steelers, 24-23

-The Steelers are so aggravating and have a bad pass defense. I’ll take the points.

Ravens -13.5 over Jags, 34-6

-Blowout time.

Packers -4 over Bills, 35-20

-Bills fought Broncos hard last week, but the Packers are operating on a different level right now. Rodgers continues his MVP march. The 2010 Brady campaign is my favorite quarterbacking season (36 TDs, 4 INTS), more than 2007 Brady or 2013 Manning or any of the other great seasons. This Rodgers one so far is bettering that 2010 season.

Colts -6.5 over Texans, 28-17

-A shaky status for Andre Johnson and other Texans make what was a decent change fall to nil. Colts need this to seal the division and get it.

Raiders +10 over Chiefs, 13-22

-Just a feeling. This Raiders team is feisty.

Pats -7.5 over Fins, 37-24

-Pats at home in December versus a disintegrating Dolphins team. I’ll take it.

Chargers +4.5 over Broncos, 27-28

-These games seem to be close and the Chargers are still alive.

Lions -7.5 over Viks, 24-13

-The Vikings are going to struggle mightily in moving the ball, and Megatron is rolling at this point.

Seahawks -9.5 over SF, 28-10

-A much different game than just a few weeks ago. The Niners are about to combust. Seattle is going to happily watch.

Saints -3 over Bears, 27-23

-I don’t….I can’t….just give me my Saints and let me burrow into my hole.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 6-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 105-59

By Spread: 84-78

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 772-414
By Spread: 622-548

NFL 2014 Week 7 Predictions

Week 7 Predictions

Ravens -7 over Falcons, 30-17

-Falcons are falling apart. Take out the win over Tampa and those numbers look UGLY.

Seahawks -7 over Rams, 27-7

-Seahawks aren’t losing two in a row and the Seahawks are better than the 49ers team that ran by a Rams team they spotted them two scores last week.

Browns -5.5 over Jags, 17-9

-Tough game, winnable I guess by the Jags. However, if the Browns want to be for real this is a “take care of business win”. Like NE over Oakland in a way.

Colts -3.5 over Bengals, 24-20

-After week 2, this would have been a big line FOR the Bengals. Now, they are legit dogs, and going to lose this one to a roaring Andrew Luck.

Bills -5.5 over Vikings, 20-10

-Bills defense is going to step up after the embarrassing loss to Brady and NE. The Vikings have problems all over the place and no running game is going to help them here.

Saints +3 over Lions, 24-20

-Off the bye, even without Graham, the Saints get on track versus the Lions who are missing Megatron. Brees finds a way.

Packers -7 over Panthers, 37-23

-Seems high, so this is probably a stay away. But the Packers are coming on strong and aren’t really hitting their high point on offense yet. It is coming.

Chargers -4 over Chiefs,

-Tough spot for the Chiefs, but the Chargers showed what I wanted to see last week in that trap game versus Oakland.

Cards -3.5 over Raiders, 20-13

-My eliminator lock of the week, despite the uncertainty here. Just shows the randomness of this particular week. The Cards get that leaky pass defense fixed and physically shove the Raiders around.

Cowboys -6.5 over Giants, 24-13

-I haven’t figured each of these teams out to be honest, but I do know the Cowboys can run the ball. The Giants will feel the loss of Cruz here and going forward.

49ers +6.5 over Broncos, 23-24

-Just taking the points. One of these slow starts is going to stick the Broncos in a hole they can’t get out of. Maybe it is this week. Either way, the points should be enough.

On the Texans-Steelers game, I have no idea. Just take the under.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-2

By Spread: 7-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 46-28

By Spread: 36-36

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 712-383
By Spread: 574-506

NFL 2014 Week 6 Predictions

Week 6 Predictions

Colts -2.5 over Texans, 31-14

-Another blowout? Another blowout.

Ravens -3.5 over Bucs, 20-13

-Low scoring and boring, but the Bucs aren’t nearly as good as Baltimore is. This is especially true for their front 7. 

Broncos -9.5 over Jets, 28-15

-The Jets may do a respectable job on defense and the Broncos are little inflated because they have played 3 of 4 at home. However, this is still a mismatch.

Lions -1.5 over Vikings, 27-23

-A lot depends on Calvin, but I think the Lions are just better regardless. Teddy being back will help though, as the Viks won’t be able to run the ball anyways.

Pats -3 over the Bills, 30-26

-This isn’t Pats/Bills of the last ten years. But it is also Brady versus Orton. I’ll take the Pats.

Browns -1 over Steelers, 21-20

-The Steelers aren’t good. The Browns are….decent?  

Packers -3 over Dolphins, 38-34

-Shootout, but Rodgers is vibing right now. But numbers for everyone involved.

Chargers -7.5 over Raiders, 31-10

-Not even a question. And Rivers, somehow is our MVP front runner.

Seahawks -9 over Cowboys, 28-17

-Seattle will be the first this year to stop Murray, and Romo throws 3 picks after that trying to press.

Cardinals -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-20

-The Cardinals are a great team example of how good you can be without a quarterback. Hopefully they find the answer soon, because the amount you can succeed without one is drying up.

Rams +3.5 over 49ers, 23-21

-Tough, physical game, and I continue to think the Niners are much worse than their listed record.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 37-26

By Spread: 29-33

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 703-381
By Spread: 567-503

NFL 2013 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Colts -2.5 over Chiefs, 21-17

-The Colts are getting right at the correct time. FootballOutsiders has them at the lowest odds of winning the whole thing. While I get why the numbers support that, and that there is little chance of the Colts advancing past the title game round, I think this is a solid bet right now. The Colts have the Ravens ‘13/Packers ‘11 mojo of a strong start, dropping off toward the end of the year, young QB breaking into the elite, and looking good at the very end of the regular season. The Chiefs are going the wrong way, are getting out schemed, and have some injury concerns. In the playoffs, it often comes down to the team with the better QB so often, and the Colts are winning that battle.

Saints +2.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I know, I know. The Saints aren’t any good outdoors/on the road. Well, we have no idea how these Eagles will be in the playoffs at all, and we know Brees and co. can win a Superbowl. Again, I am taking the better QB, this one in a little more of a shootout. If the Eagles get a lead though, this is actually probably over early because they will run it all over the Saints. But, I think Brees gets the Saints ahead and stays there.

Bengals -7 over Chargers, 33-23

-This is the game I feel most comfortable about. The Chargers are the second lowest projected FO Super Bowl team and that I can agree with. I picked the Bengals to make the Superbowl, and still feel okay about that despite the Hall and Adkins injuries. Green and Gio both go off in a big Cincy win. One year too early for the Chargers, who will draft heavily on defense and develop next year.

Packers +2.5 over Niners, 24-16

-This will be the third time in a 365 day span these two teams have played, a rarity for non division opponents. They know each other well, and are in very different spots than the first time. I think this is the matchup where the Packers flip the script. When they met last January, the Packers were the established offense and the Niners the upstarts who were newly developing an offense around a QB who only had a few starts. Now, the Niners have been rolling (successfully?) with their offense for a year plus, while the Packers were a pass team that became a run team with a different QB and now have gotten their All-Pro QB back for good. And if at any point, the Packers have learned how to stop Colin K and that rushing offense, now would be the time to implement it. Here is a thought: stop Davis and Boldin. They caught 20 of Kaep’s 21 TDs this year. That limited offense, with a think an almost worn out Frank Gore, gives the Packers the victory. And if Aaron Rodgers is allowed to get hot, watch out NFC.


As for the overall picture, the best prediction for the Superbowl is the boring one: Seattle over Denver. I really don't see anyone else besides maybe the Packers winning the NFC. The AFC is coming down to the Broncos, Pats, and maybe the Bengals. I like the Pats' chances, but the injuries are probably too much. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 118-68
By Spread: 96-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 657-351
By Spread: 533-465

NFL 2013 Week 17 Predictions

Bengals -6 over Ravens, 24-16

-Bengals are playing for a possible bye, and the Ravens are coming apart a bit. I wouldn’t trust Flacco’s knee here, and since you can’t trust any of Ray Rice…

Pats -8.5 over Bills, 34-16

-Pats need this, and are rounding into form. They want to earn that week off.

Falcons +6 over Panthers, 17-20

-Falcons are playing everyone close, the Panthers are pretty injured, and it may be a low scoring game. Taking the points.

Steelers -7 over Browns, 24-7

-Steelers need this to have any shot at the playoffs, so they get it.

Packers -3 over Bears, 29-24

-Rodgers is back, and the Bears are ready to disintegrate.

Jags +11.5 over Colts, 20-24

-They hang in every game.

Texans +7.5 over Titans, 19-20

-Just too many points for a team this talented, even on the road.

Fins -5.5 over Jets, 20-13

-Jets have pulled a lot of magic tricks to get even this many wins, but the Dolphins need this to get into the playoffs.

Eagles -6 over Cowboys, 37-23

-This could actually be a big blowout.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Saints -13 over Bucs, 31-17

-A “take care of business” game for the Saints, which I think straightens them out and gets them primed for the first round. It is interesting, everyone has given up on this team. But they will probably beat the Bucs and then have a good chance at the Packers or Eagles. I am not counting this team out quite yet.

Chargers -9.5 over Chiefs, 30-10

-Meaningless game for the Chiefs, who haven’t been exactly stout on defense anyways.

Cards pk over 49ers, 17-15

-The Falcons played the Niners so tough, and the Cards need the win more desperately than San Francisco does.

Seahawks -10.5 over Rams, 24-10

-Still my favorite to win the whole thing, the Seahawks take care of business here and clinch home field throughout.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-5

By Spread: 4-7

Record this year:
Straight Up: 108-66
By Spread: 88-87

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 647-349
By Spread: 525-460

NFL 2012 Week 8 Predictions

Top 5

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. Houston  

4. San Francisco

5. Green Bay

Bottom 5

28. Philadelphia

29. Cleveland

30. Oakland

31. Kansas City  

32. Jacksonville

Falcons +2.5 over Eagles, 30-22

-One team is 6-0. The other is 3-3, trending downward. I don’t understand. I really don’t. 2.5 points. 2.5 point UNDERDOG? Vegas baby, Vegas.

Colts +3.5 over Titans, 21-20

-Continue to like the Colts. Continue to not like the Titans. Just going with that. Luck!

Bears -9 over Panthers, 24-13

-Late game Cam Newton pick six to cover. Forte gashes them. 13 carries, 105 yards, something like that.

-Best Eliminator Pick (wins over the Packers just because you may want to save the Packers).

Packers -15 over Jags, 34-6

-Not a number high enough. Chad. Henne.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Dolphins +1.5 over Jets, 17-16

-This Dolphins team is pretty decent. We will see how good Tannehill is though when Cromartie takes away Hartline. Jets have to come back to the average, they just do. Kerley could actually have a good game regardless. He might be a thing.  

Patriots -7 over Rams, 31-20

-I could be burned by the NFC West versus NE thrice, but I think NE will travel better to England than the Rams and that makes a difference. Gronk is covered by who exactly?

Chargers -2.5 over Browns, 24-20

-Scared of the Chargers. Legit scared. But I think Weedon regresses here and Chargers right the ship. Love the half point love here.

Lions -1 over Seahawks, 17-13

-Lions just really need this win and it is at home. Calvin needs to have a big game though. Part of the reason I am comfortable with this pick is that the Lions defense is underrated right now.

Giants -1.5 over Cowboys, 27-17

-No repeat of the opener, especially with Demarco Murray not being healthy. Giants roll like they should have in the opener. This puts the Cowboys season, essentially on life support, almost completely down. Ignoring the record, this Cowboys team would be done if they lose badly here.

Saints +6.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-Still don’t think Denver is good, and that Joe Vitt may have righted the ship for the Saints a little. There is lift here. And the Saints can totally get ahead 24 points, which is normally enough to sink the Broncos (San Diego, I’m looking at you).

Cardinals +6.5 over Niners, 17-21

-Close game so take the points. I think the Cardinals are slightly better than the Seahawks, and that SEA-SF was close. Thus, here we are.  

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-2

By Spread: 4-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 50-34

By Spread: 41-42

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 439-231
By Spread: 361-315

MIKE