NFL 2014 Week 12 Predictions

Week 12 Predictions

Browns +3 over Falcons, 27-20

-This is exactly the type of game the “first place” Falcons lose. Josh Gordon + Hoyer is the second best deep ball thrower efficiency wise + Falcons cover WRs about as well as a HS secondary would.

Colts -13.5 over Jags, 34-17

-Oh boy.

Packers -9 over Vikings, 41-14

-Oh boy again.

Pats -7 over Lions, 27-17

-The Lions defense will be tough, but the Pats are just vibing right now. Detroit also has no answer for Gronk.

Eagles -11 over Titans, 27-10

-Sanchez is bad, but the whole Titans team is bad. Weird game that I won’t be watching very much of.

Rams +5 over Bolts, 23-14

-Chargers are going the WRONG direction.

Cards +7 over Seahawks, 20-24

-A good game that the Seahawks probably win at home. But when the probable number 1 seed is getting 7 points, you take it.

Dolphins +7 over Broncos, 27-26

-The interior line issues for the Broncos are very real, and the Dolphins can exploit that. They can also show with the Broncos enough to win this game.

Niners -9 over Ethnic Slurs, 17-12

-I don’t like either team, but the Niners just have far more talent. I won’t be watching any part of this game.

Cowboys -4 over Giants, 20-6

-A slugfest that will be ugly to watch, punctuated by a few big hits to Dez.

Bills -2.5 over Jets, 24-13

-A tough game that will probably be very disjointed. Bills have more talent, so I think that will

Saints -3 over Ravens, 31-23

-Both teams really need it, and at some point at night on national TV at home the Saints will right this ship. I’ve been there all year on the Saints bandwagon: if it goes off the cliff I’ll be on it.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-6

By Spread: 3-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 80-47

By Spread: 66-60

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 747-402
By Spread: 604-530

NFL 2014 Week 9 Predictions

Week 9 Predictions

Fins -1 over Chargers, 24-21

-The Chargers are a better team, let’s get that straight right now. But the Chargers are a West Coast team coming East for an early game. And, they are currently wracked by injuries.

Jags +11 over Bengals, 20-24

-Just too many points.

Eagles -2 over Texans, 27-13

-I don’t understand this line. Explain it to me.

Chiefs – 10 over Jets, 24-6

-The Jets aren’t good. The Chiefs are a competent team. Questions?

Cards +3 over Cowboys, 24-14

-Cowboys are starting to slide off. Their defense isn’t that good, and the running game only takes you so far. This is the week Murray’s streak ends.

49ers -10 over Rams, 20-6

-I liked this Rams team, but the injuries are so extreme right now I can’t even have them as competitive in this game.

Pats +3.5 over Broncos, 34-31

-Pats at home in a nationally televised game are money. Pats as home underdog? NOBOBY BELIEVES IN YOU PATRIOTS!

Raiders +14.5 over Seahawks, 14-27

-The Seahawks are winning this game pretty convincingly. But that is WAY too many points for a team that isn’t exactly fluid on offense right now.

Colts -3.5 over Giants, 30-24

-You take the great quarterback on a prime time game if it is at all close. That simple.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-5

By Spread: 5-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 61-37

By Spread: 47-49

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 727-392
By Spread: 585-519

NFL 2014 Week 7 Predictions

Week 7 Predictions

Ravens -7 over Falcons, 30-17

-Falcons are falling apart. Take out the win over Tampa and those numbers look UGLY.

Seahawks -7 over Rams, 27-7

-Seahawks aren’t losing two in a row and the Seahawks are better than the 49ers team that ran by a Rams team they spotted them two scores last week.

Browns -5.5 over Jags, 17-9

-Tough game, winnable I guess by the Jags. However, if the Browns want to be for real this is a “take care of business win”. Like NE over Oakland in a way.

Colts -3.5 over Bengals, 24-20

-After week 2, this would have been a big line FOR the Bengals. Now, they are legit dogs, and going to lose this one to a roaring Andrew Luck.

Bills -5.5 over Vikings, 20-10

-Bills defense is going to step up after the embarrassing loss to Brady and NE. The Vikings have problems all over the place and no running game is going to help them here.

Saints +3 over Lions, 24-20

-Off the bye, even without Graham, the Saints get on track versus the Lions who are missing Megatron. Brees finds a way.

Packers -7 over Panthers, 37-23

-Seems high, so this is probably a stay away. But the Packers are coming on strong and aren’t really hitting their high point on offense yet. It is coming.

Chargers -4 over Chiefs,

-Tough spot for the Chiefs, but the Chargers showed what I wanted to see last week in that trap game versus Oakland.

Cards -3.5 over Raiders, 20-13

-My eliminator lock of the week, despite the uncertainty here. Just shows the randomness of this particular week. The Cards get that leaky pass defense fixed and physically shove the Raiders around.

Cowboys -6.5 over Giants, 24-13

-I haven’t figured each of these teams out to be honest, but I do know the Cowboys can run the ball. The Giants will feel the loss of Cruz here and going forward.

49ers +6.5 over Broncos, 23-24

-Just taking the points. One of these slow starts is going to stick the Broncos in a hole they can’t get out of. Maybe it is this week. Either way, the points should be enough.

On the Texans-Steelers game, I have no idea. Just take the under.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-2

By Spread: 7-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 46-28

By Spread: 36-36

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 712-383
By Spread: 574-506

NFL 2014 Week 6 Predictions

Week 6 Predictions

Colts -2.5 over Texans, 31-14

-Another blowout? Another blowout.

Ravens -3.5 over Bucs, 20-13

-Low scoring and boring, but the Bucs aren’t nearly as good as Baltimore is. This is especially true for their front 7. 

Broncos -9.5 over Jets, 28-15

-The Jets may do a respectable job on defense and the Broncos are little inflated because they have played 3 of 4 at home. However, this is still a mismatch.

Lions -1.5 over Vikings, 27-23

-A lot depends on Calvin, but I think the Lions are just better regardless. Teddy being back will help though, as the Viks won’t be able to run the ball anyways.

Pats -3 over the Bills, 30-26

-This isn’t Pats/Bills of the last ten years. But it is also Brady versus Orton. I’ll take the Pats.

Browns -1 over Steelers, 21-20

-The Steelers aren’t good. The Browns are….decent?  

Packers -3 over Dolphins, 38-34

-Shootout, but Rodgers is vibing right now. But numbers for everyone involved.

Chargers -7.5 over Raiders, 31-10

-Not even a question. And Rivers, somehow is our MVP front runner.

Seahawks -9 over Cowboys, 28-17

-Seattle will be the first this year to stop Murray, and Romo throws 3 picks after that trying to press.

Cardinals -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-20

-The Cardinals are a great team example of how good you can be without a quarterback. Hopefully they find the answer soon, because the amount you can succeed without one is drying up.

Rams +3.5 over 49ers, 23-21

-Tough, physical game, and I continue to think the Niners are much worse than their listed record.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 37-26

By Spread: 29-33

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 703-381
By Spread: 567-503

NFL 2014 Week 5 Predictions

Week 5 Predictions

Packers -10 over Vikings , 31-13

-With no Bridgewater, the Vikings have no chance. Plus, your weekly Thursday Night Football blowout is obviously in play.

Bears +2.5 over Panthers, 27-16

-One team can score, one team can’t. Also, the Panthers might be starting me at running back this week.

Lions -7 over Bills, 27-19

-This is the adjustment week to Kyle Orton. I think that QB change works out for them overall, but versus the Lions the Bills will have a hard time running the ball. Calvin being healthier will lead them to a win.

Ravens +3.5 over Colts, 23-24

-Just too close for this to be 3.5 points. Baltimore’s media disaster this year is shielding that this is actually a pretty decent team. Andrew Luck, though, continues the streak he is on and grinds out yet another close win in his early career.

Saints -10 over Bucs, 38-27

-If the Saints don’t get it right here, they will never get it right. I’m starting numerous Saints in 1 time use only eliminator leagues.

Eagles -7 over Rams, 30-20

-Eagles are going to score an offensive touchdown. Write it down now, I predicted it. The Rams are a nice team, but I don’t think even off a bye they can score with the Eagles.

Browns +2 over Titans, 24-13

-I don’t think the Titans are good. I know Locker/Whitehurst are no good. The Browns are coming off a bye, and will be well prepared for this game.

Cards +7.5 over Broncos, 27-26

-That Arizona defense is for real. If Demaryus Thomas THOUGHT he was having a bad year, watch out for when he meets Patrick Peterson.

Chargers  -6.5 over Jets, 27-14

-Still hate the Jets. So does Geno Smith, so this is an easy one.

Chiefs +6 over 49ers, 20-17

-I continue to say the Niners aren’t particularly good. We will see how that holds up here.

Pats +1.5 over Bengals, 24-23

-Okay, this is it. If the Pats get blown out, I will step away from my prediction of them as a good team that is going to win 12 games every year. And the Bengals are a tough test. But A. Brady/Belichick don’t lose at home. B. Brady/Belichick don’t lose prime time games. C. Brady/Belichick don’t lose consecutive games. D. Brady/Belichick aren’t scared of Andy Dalton. Here, my thought is if this Pats team is a normal Pats team that is just going through a tough stretch, they will grind this one out behind a pounding running game and some nicely timed turnovers. The return of Brandon Browner should help the secondary improve overall because it allows others to slide back a place or two.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-7

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 30-22

By Spread: 24-27

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 694-377
By Spread: 562-497

NFL 2014 Week 4 Predictions

Week 4 Predictions

Panthers +3.5 over Ravens, 24-23

-Steve Smith Revenge Game aside, the Panthers are a good enough team that 3.5 is just an auto selection.  

Packers -2 over Bears, 31-27

-Forte has a much better day than his season to date, but the Packers are R-E-L-A-X-E-D and will get on track. Jordy may have to have 300 yards to do so, but I’d take that.

Bills +3 over Texans, 21-20

-I don’t like either team, but I really don’t like Ryan Fitzpatrick. We see Mallett at some point this season, right?

Colts -7.5 over Titans, 27-16

-Week 1 seems to be a sham. The Titans are not good and the Colts are rounding into shape quickly.

Lions -2 over Jets, 34-15

-I don’t get it. The Jets are not good. The Lions are decent. No one can cover Megatron here. I see a romp.

Fins -3.5 over Raiders, 20-13

-Loser leaves town, coach-wise?

Steelers -7.5 over Bucs, 27-12

-Mike Glennon, I’m pulling for you.

Chargers -13 over Jags, 31-14

-Lock of the week for the Eliminator community, and Rivers should have a monster day.

Falcons -3 over Viks, 30-13

-3 points? Am I missing something?

Eagles +5 over 49ers, 24-23

-I don’t think the 49ers are good, and believe the Eagles are at least somewhat good. Chip Kelly +5 points seems like it is going to work out most weeks.

Saints -3 over Cowboys, 37-27

-It’s coming some week, and the Saints explosion might as well be this one. They own the Cowboys since Brees came to NOLA

Pats -3 over Chiefs, 24-20

-This is a really tough game to properly predict. However,  the Pats don’t typically lose prime time games, and I believe they have a line on the many Chiefs weaknesses to exploit. Brady gets the offense tooled into a better gear and they find a way to win this game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-4

By Spread: 9-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 25-15

By Spread: 19-21

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 689-370
By Spread: 557-491

NFL 2014 Week 1 Predictions

Week 1 Predictions

Saints -3 over Falcons

-I think the Falcons rebound and have a good season, but the Saints are my Super Bowl pick and I think they put up some numbers in this one.

Vikings +3.5 over Rams

-I don’t know what Shaun Hill is going to do. I know what Peterson is going to do. I like getting 3.5 points in close defensive games. Questions?

Steelers -7 over Browns

-Death, taxes, and Steelers beating the Browns. 25-5 over the last 15 years or so.

Eagles -10.5 over Jags

-I feel weird about this pick. The Eagles are going to win, but if the Jags have a sneaky good 6-10 season with some close losses, I wouldn’t be surprised. I like Gus Bradley. This might be a strong tease candidate.

Raiders +5.5 over Jets

-I believe in Derek Carr. I can’t fully explain why, but I really do. And with this Jets secondary being so horrid, I think he can really get his career off to a good start.

                                                                                   

Bengals +1 over Ravens

-This should be close, but the Bengals might have the lines in the AFC on both sides and should dominate this game. I am not sure the Ravens could run anyways, but especially not here.

Bears -7 over Bills

-Marrone fighting with refs on the daily? Bears romp this. Byrd is in NO now, and that hurts the Bills trying to cover the Bears’ receivers deep.

Texans -3 over Ethnic Slurs

-Washington may be a mess, and the Texans are way undervalued right now. I believe in Bill O’Brien.

Chiefs -3 over Titans

-Probably will be a rough game, but I don’t trust Locker.

Pats -5 over Dolphins

-I love Tannehill but not in these games. Pats roll right through. The new look Pats defense will be fascinating to watch.

Colts +8 over Broncos

-Broncos are adjusting on defense, have lost a lot on offense, and this is a good spot for the Colts, who beat Manning last year, to at least cover. In Luck I trust.

Lions -6 over Giants

-There is no way to properly measure how bad I think the Giants are going to be.

The other games are stay aways: Panthers are a mess, the 49ers are a mess, and Arizona-Chargers should be an awesome and close game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-0

By Spread: 1-0

Record last year:
Straight Up: 125-72
By Spread: 101-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 664-355
By Spread: 538-470

NFL 2013 Week 17 Predictions

Bengals -6 over Ravens, 24-16

-Bengals are playing for a possible bye, and the Ravens are coming apart a bit. I wouldn’t trust Flacco’s knee here, and since you can’t trust any of Ray Rice…

Pats -8.5 over Bills, 34-16

-Pats need this, and are rounding into form. They want to earn that week off.

Falcons +6 over Panthers, 17-20

-Falcons are playing everyone close, the Panthers are pretty injured, and it may be a low scoring game. Taking the points.

Steelers -7 over Browns, 24-7

-Steelers need this to have any shot at the playoffs, so they get it.

Packers -3 over Bears, 29-24

-Rodgers is back, and the Bears are ready to disintegrate.

Jags +11.5 over Colts, 20-24

-They hang in every game.

Texans +7.5 over Titans, 19-20

-Just too many points for a team this talented, even on the road.

Fins -5.5 over Jets, 20-13

-Jets have pulled a lot of magic tricks to get even this many wins, but the Dolphins need this to get into the playoffs.

Eagles -6 over Cowboys, 37-23

-This could actually be a big blowout.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Saints -13 over Bucs, 31-17

-A “take care of business” game for the Saints, which I think straightens them out and gets them primed for the first round. It is interesting, everyone has given up on this team. But they will probably beat the Bucs and then have a good chance at the Packers or Eagles. I am not counting this team out quite yet.

Chargers -9.5 over Chiefs, 30-10

-Meaningless game for the Chiefs, who haven’t been exactly stout on defense anyways.

Cards pk over 49ers, 17-15

-The Falcons played the Niners so tough, and the Cards need the win more desperately than San Francisco does.

Seahawks -10.5 over Rams, 24-10

-Still my favorite to win the whole thing, the Seahawks take care of business here and clinch home field throughout.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-5

By Spread: 4-7

Record this year:
Straight Up: 108-66
By Spread: 88-87

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 647-349
By Spread: 525-460

NFL 2012 Week 8 Predictions

Top 5

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. Houston  

4. San Francisco

5. Green Bay

Bottom 5

28. Philadelphia

29. Cleveland

30. Oakland

31. Kansas City  

32. Jacksonville

Falcons +2.5 over Eagles, 30-22

-One team is 6-0. The other is 3-3, trending downward. I don’t understand. I really don’t. 2.5 points. 2.5 point UNDERDOG? Vegas baby, Vegas.

Colts +3.5 over Titans, 21-20

-Continue to like the Colts. Continue to not like the Titans. Just going with that. Luck!

Bears -9 over Panthers, 24-13

-Late game Cam Newton pick six to cover. Forte gashes them. 13 carries, 105 yards, something like that.

-Best Eliminator Pick (wins over the Packers just because you may want to save the Packers).

Packers -15 over Jags, 34-6

-Not a number high enough. Chad. Henne.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Dolphins +1.5 over Jets, 17-16

-This Dolphins team is pretty decent. We will see how good Tannehill is though when Cromartie takes away Hartline. Jets have to come back to the average, they just do. Kerley could actually have a good game regardless. He might be a thing.  

Patriots -7 over Rams, 31-20

-I could be burned by the NFC West versus NE thrice, but I think NE will travel better to England than the Rams and that makes a difference. Gronk is covered by who exactly?

Chargers -2.5 over Browns, 24-20

-Scared of the Chargers. Legit scared. But I think Weedon regresses here and Chargers right the ship. Love the half point love here.

Lions -1 over Seahawks, 17-13

-Lions just really need this win and it is at home. Calvin needs to have a big game though. Part of the reason I am comfortable with this pick is that the Lions defense is underrated right now.

Giants -1.5 over Cowboys, 27-17

-No repeat of the opener, especially with Demarco Murray not being healthy. Giants roll like they should have in the opener. This puts the Cowboys season, essentially on life support, almost completely down. Ignoring the record, this Cowboys team would be done if they lose badly here.

Saints +6.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-Still don’t think Denver is good, and that Joe Vitt may have righted the ship for the Saints a little. There is lift here. And the Saints can totally get ahead 24 points, which is normally enough to sink the Broncos (San Diego, I’m looking at you).

Cardinals +6.5 over Niners, 17-21

-Close game so take the points. I think the Cardinals are slightly better than the Seahawks, and that SEA-SF was close. Thus, here we are.  

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-2

By Spread: 4-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 50-34

By Spread: 41-42

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 439-231
By Spread: 361-315

MIKE