NFL 2014 Week 16 Predictions

Week 16 Predictions

Eagles -8.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-17

-I am not watching one second of this game. I think McCoy is a good daily league start though.

Chargers +3 over 49ers, 24-13

-He should go to Michigan, right?

Saints -6.5 over Falcons, 34-17

-The Falcons pass defense is abhorrent.

Chiefs +3.5 over Steelers, 20-17

-I don’t trust the Steelers. Or like them. Kansas City is going to have some offensive surprises for them. Heck, maybe even a WR will score!

Ravens -4 over Texans, 24-13

-Tom Savage? Thad Lewis? Case Keenum? Oi.

Packers -10 over Bucs, 41-17

-There is no end to how many points the Packers put up this week.

Lions -4.5 over Bears, 30-7

-Jimmy Clausen, meet Suh.

Panthers -3.5 over Browns, 22-10

-The Panthers need this and the Browns are probably already out of it.

Pats -10 over Jets, 28-10

-Probably an overall boring game, that is why I am projecting this to be so low.

Raiders +7.5 over Bills, 13-19

-Kyle Orton lays over a touchdown to NO team.

Colts +3.5 over Cowboys, 23-21

-Luck over a banged up Cowboys team on national TV GETTING over a FG? Yes please.

Seahawks -7.5 over Cards, 27-10

-Ryan Lindley everyone! Oh, I think he already threw an interception.

Broncos -3.5 over Bengals, 28-20

-Manning in prime time versus Dalton in prime time. I wish it were different, but I can’t ignore both clear histories here.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-2

By Spread:  4-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 113-61

By Spread: 88-84

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 780-416
By Spread: 626-554

NFL 2014 Week 15 Predictions

Week 15 Predictions

Falcons +3 over Steelers, 24-23

-The Steelers are so aggravating and have a bad pass defense. I’ll take the points.

Ravens -13.5 over Jags, 34-6

-Blowout time.

Packers -4 over Bills, 35-20

-Bills fought Broncos hard last week, but the Packers are operating on a different level right now. Rodgers continues his MVP march. The 2010 Brady campaign is my favorite quarterbacking season (36 TDs, 4 INTS), more than 2007 Brady or 2013 Manning or any of the other great seasons. This Rodgers one so far is bettering that 2010 season.

Colts -6.5 over Texans, 28-17

-A shaky status for Andre Johnson and other Texans make what was a decent change fall to nil. Colts need this to seal the division and get it.

Raiders +10 over Chiefs, 13-22

-Just a feeling. This Raiders team is feisty.

Pats -7.5 over Fins, 37-24

-Pats at home in December versus a disintegrating Dolphins team. I’ll take it.

Chargers +4.5 over Broncos, 27-28

-These games seem to be close and the Chargers are still alive.

Lions -7.5 over Viks, 24-13

-The Vikings are going to struggle mightily in moving the ball, and Megatron is rolling at this point.

Seahawks -9.5 over SF, 28-10

-A much different game than just a few weeks ago. The Niners are about to combust. Seattle is going to happily watch.

Saints -3 over Bears, 27-23

-I don’t….I can’t….just give me my Saints and let me burrow into my hole.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 6-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 105-59

By Spread: 84-78

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 772-414
By Spread: 622-548

NFL 2014 Week 14 Predictions

Week 14 Predictions

Bengals -3 over Steelers, 24-20

-I don’t believe the Steelers are a good team, especially on defense. The Bengals at least have some pieces. Big game from Bell though, matched by Green.

Colts -3.5 over Browns, 28-24

-This has nothing to do with the Hoyer start, which I agree with. The Colts are just better and know they need to win a few more games even in their generally pathetic division. Hilton taken away by Haden though.  

Lions -9.5 over Bucs, 35-20

-Start your Lions WRs!

Texans -6 over Jags, 24-9

-Texans are a competent football team. That’s about what I got.

Vikings -6 over Jets, 27-6

-The Jets are not a competent football team. The Vikings are sneakily competent and a good sleeper for next year assuming some growth and more consistency. Love the Vikings DST here.

Saints -9.5 over Panthers, 34-13

-These teams are going in the opposite directions, and, as always, I’m riding NO.

Rams -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 23-12

-The Rams are like the Vikings, just need that QB. I would pay money to watch Mariota on this team.

Broncos -10 over Bills, 31-14

-I don’t like it, but this will indeed be ugly. The only hope is the mismatch between DEN’s OLine and the BUF DLine….but that doesn’t make up for all the issues EVERYWHERE else in Denver’s favor.

Raiders +8 over 49ers, 13-19

-Yes, I’m serious. The 49ers aren’t good, and are a few bad breaks from the team revolting on Jim Harbaugh. Just cover baby.

Seahawks +2 over Eagles, 24-20

-Seahawks are getting points in any scenario, and I’m taking them despite everything else going on. Mark Sanchez still terrifies me.

Patriots -3.5 over Chargers, 36-23

-Pats don’t lose two in a row.

Packers -12.5 over Falcons, 31-17

-Domed war weather team going to Green Bay in winter. Yup. Rodgers all but ends the MVP discussion with ANOTHER huge game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 5-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 96-56

By Spread: 78-73

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 763-411
By Spread: 616-543

NFL 2014 Week 8 Predictions

Week 8 Predictions

Lions -3.5 over Falcons, 24-13

-The Falcons are not very good, so this really doesn’t depend on Calvin being back or not.

Seahawks -6 over Panthers, 28-20

-The Seahawks won’t lose two in a row, especially to such a mediocre team.

Ravens -1 over Bengals, 24-14

-The Bengals are in a tailspin and the Ravens are a legit team.

Fins -6 over Jags, 31-17

-Jags got their win, but it won’t be two in a row. The Fins should put up some strong offensive numbers in this game.

Pats -6 over Bears, 28-20

-Weird line numbers, feels like more of a 3 point game. The Bears just aren’t quite right right now.

Rams +7 over Chiefs, 21-20

Rams are fiester than many are giving them credit for. They have won the majority of their last eight quarters of football…and those were against the Niners and Seahawks.

Bills +3 over Jets, 21-13

-I don’t understand why this line is favoring the 1-6 Jets over 4-3 Bills. I don’t get it. Take the free points.

Texans -3 over Titans, 20-13

-I actually think the Titans have more pieces than most folks would give them credit for, but they are starting a rookie QB. Tough to ride that over the experience the Texans bring.

Cards -2.5 over Eagles, 24-21

Really a clash of two philosophies, but the Cards have the downfield passing attack too. I have backed my Cards for about 2 years now, and am not jumping off now.

Raiders +7 over Browns, 20-23

-Just cover baby.

Colts -3 over Steelers, 26-21

-Steelers were surprisingly effective last week but overall these are two teams going in the wrong direction.

Cowboys -10 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-10

-Boring, but I am taking the layup here.

Packers +2.5 over Saints, 37-24

-Someone how I am getting points here. I love my Saints, but they have killed me all season and the Packers are heating up.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 6-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 53-32

By Spread: 42-41

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 719-387
By Spread: 580-511

NFL 2014 Week 6 Predictions

Week 6 Predictions

Colts -2.5 over Texans, 31-14

-Another blowout? Another blowout.

Ravens -3.5 over Bucs, 20-13

-Low scoring and boring, but the Bucs aren’t nearly as good as Baltimore is. This is especially true for their front 7. 

Broncos -9.5 over Jets, 28-15

-The Jets may do a respectable job on defense and the Broncos are little inflated because they have played 3 of 4 at home. However, this is still a mismatch.

Lions -1.5 over Vikings, 27-23

-A lot depends on Calvin, but I think the Lions are just better regardless. Teddy being back will help though, as the Viks won’t be able to run the ball anyways.

Pats -3 over the Bills, 30-26

-This isn’t Pats/Bills of the last ten years. But it is also Brady versus Orton. I’ll take the Pats.

Browns -1 over Steelers, 21-20

-The Steelers aren’t good. The Browns are….decent?  

Packers -3 over Dolphins, 38-34

-Shootout, but Rodgers is vibing right now. But numbers for everyone involved.

Chargers -7.5 over Raiders, 31-10

-Not even a question. And Rivers, somehow is our MVP front runner.

Seahawks -9 over Cowboys, 28-17

-Seattle will be the first this year to stop Murray, and Romo throws 3 picks after that trying to press.

Cardinals -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-20

-The Cardinals are a great team example of how good you can be without a quarterback. Hopefully they find the answer soon, because the amount you can succeed without one is drying up.

Rams +3.5 over 49ers, 23-21

-Tough, physical game, and I continue to think the Niners are much worse than their listed record.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 37-26

By Spread: 29-33

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 703-381
By Spread: 567-503

NFL 2014 Week 5 Predictions

Week 5 Predictions

Packers -10 over Vikings , 31-13

-With no Bridgewater, the Vikings have no chance. Plus, your weekly Thursday Night Football blowout is obviously in play.

Bears +2.5 over Panthers, 27-16

-One team can score, one team can’t. Also, the Panthers might be starting me at running back this week.

Lions -7 over Bills, 27-19

-This is the adjustment week to Kyle Orton. I think that QB change works out for them overall, but versus the Lions the Bills will have a hard time running the ball. Calvin being healthier will lead them to a win.

Ravens +3.5 over Colts, 23-24

-Just too close for this to be 3.5 points. Baltimore’s media disaster this year is shielding that this is actually a pretty decent team. Andrew Luck, though, continues the streak he is on and grinds out yet another close win in his early career.

Saints -10 over Bucs, 38-27

-If the Saints don’t get it right here, they will never get it right. I’m starting numerous Saints in 1 time use only eliminator leagues.

Eagles -7 over Rams, 30-20

-Eagles are going to score an offensive touchdown. Write it down now, I predicted it. The Rams are a nice team, but I don’t think even off a bye they can score with the Eagles.

Browns +2 over Titans, 24-13

-I don’t think the Titans are good. I know Locker/Whitehurst are no good. The Browns are coming off a bye, and will be well prepared for this game.

Cards +7.5 over Broncos, 27-26

-That Arizona defense is for real. If Demaryus Thomas THOUGHT he was having a bad year, watch out for when he meets Patrick Peterson.

Chargers  -6.5 over Jets, 27-14

-Still hate the Jets. So does Geno Smith, so this is an easy one.

Chiefs +6 over 49ers, 20-17

-I continue to say the Niners aren’t particularly good. We will see how that holds up here.

Pats +1.5 over Bengals, 24-23

-Okay, this is it. If the Pats get blown out, I will step away from my prediction of them as a good team that is going to win 12 games every year. And the Bengals are a tough test. But A. Brady/Belichick don’t lose at home. B. Brady/Belichick don’t lose prime time games. C. Brady/Belichick don’t lose consecutive games. D. Brady/Belichick aren’t scared of Andy Dalton. Here, my thought is if this Pats team is a normal Pats team that is just going through a tough stretch, they will grind this one out behind a pounding running game and some nicely timed turnovers. The return of Brandon Browner should help the secondary improve overall because it allows others to slide back a place or two.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-7

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 30-22

By Spread: 24-27

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 694-377
By Spread: 562-497

NFL 2014 Week 4 Predictions

Week 4 Predictions

Panthers +3.5 over Ravens, 24-23

-Steve Smith Revenge Game aside, the Panthers are a good enough team that 3.5 is just an auto selection.  

Packers -2 over Bears, 31-27

-Forte has a much better day than his season to date, but the Packers are R-E-L-A-X-E-D and will get on track. Jordy may have to have 300 yards to do so, but I’d take that.

Bills +3 over Texans, 21-20

-I don’t like either team, but I really don’t like Ryan Fitzpatrick. We see Mallett at some point this season, right?

Colts -7.5 over Titans, 27-16

-Week 1 seems to be a sham. The Titans are not good and the Colts are rounding into shape quickly.

Lions -2 over Jets, 34-15

-I don’t get it. The Jets are not good. The Lions are decent. No one can cover Megatron here. I see a romp.

Fins -3.5 over Raiders, 20-13

-Loser leaves town, coach-wise?

Steelers -7.5 over Bucs, 27-12

-Mike Glennon, I’m pulling for you.

Chargers -13 over Jags, 31-14

-Lock of the week for the Eliminator community, and Rivers should have a monster day.

Falcons -3 over Viks, 30-13

-3 points? Am I missing something?

Eagles +5 over 49ers, 24-23

-I don’t think the 49ers are good, and believe the Eagles are at least somewhat good. Chip Kelly +5 points seems like it is going to work out most weeks.

Saints -3 over Cowboys, 37-27

-It’s coming some week, and the Saints explosion might as well be this one. They own the Cowboys since Brees came to NOLA

Pats -3 over Chiefs, 24-20

-This is a really tough game to properly predict. However,  the Pats don’t typically lose prime time games, and I believe they have a line on the many Chiefs weaknesses to exploit. Brady gets the offense tooled into a better gear and they find a way to win this game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-4

By Spread: 9-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 25-15

By Spread: 19-21

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 689-370
By Spread: 557-491

NFL 2013 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Colts -2.5 over Chiefs, 21-17

-The Colts are getting right at the correct time. FootballOutsiders has them at the lowest odds of winning the whole thing. While I get why the numbers support that, and that there is little chance of the Colts advancing past the title game round, I think this is a solid bet right now. The Colts have the Ravens ‘13/Packers ‘11 mojo of a strong start, dropping off toward the end of the year, young QB breaking into the elite, and looking good at the very end of the regular season. The Chiefs are going the wrong way, are getting out schemed, and have some injury concerns. In the playoffs, it often comes down to the team with the better QB so often, and the Colts are winning that battle.

Saints +2.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I know, I know. The Saints aren’t any good outdoors/on the road. Well, we have no idea how these Eagles will be in the playoffs at all, and we know Brees and co. can win a Superbowl. Again, I am taking the better QB, this one in a little more of a shootout. If the Eagles get a lead though, this is actually probably over early because they will run it all over the Saints. But, I think Brees gets the Saints ahead and stays there.

Bengals -7 over Chargers, 33-23

-This is the game I feel most comfortable about. The Chargers are the second lowest projected FO Super Bowl team and that I can agree with. I picked the Bengals to make the Superbowl, and still feel okay about that despite the Hall and Adkins injuries. Green and Gio both go off in a big Cincy win. One year too early for the Chargers, who will draft heavily on defense and develop next year.

Packers +2.5 over Niners, 24-16

-This will be the third time in a 365 day span these two teams have played, a rarity for non division opponents. They know each other well, and are in very different spots than the first time. I think this is the matchup where the Packers flip the script. When they met last January, the Packers were the established offense and the Niners the upstarts who were newly developing an offense around a QB who only had a few starts. Now, the Niners have been rolling (successfully?) with their offense for a year plus, while the Packers were a pass team that became a run team with a different QB and now have gotten their All-Pro QB back for good. And if at any point, the Packers have learned how to stop Colin K and that rushing offense, now would be the time to implement it. Here is a thought: stop Davis and Boldin. They caught 20 of Kaep’s 21 TDs this year. That limited offense, with a think an almost worn out Frank Gore, gives the Packers the victory. And if Aaron Rodgers is allowed to get hot, watch out NFC.


As for the overall picture, the best prediction for the Superbowl is the boring one: Seattle over Denver. I really don't see anyone else besides maybe the Packers winning the NFC. The AFC is coming down to the Broncos, Pats, and maybe the Bengals. I like the Pats' chances, but the injuries are probably too much. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 118-68
By Spread: 96-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 657-351
By Spread: 533-465

NFL 2013 Week 16 Predictions

Texans +10.5 over Broncos, 21-31

-Just a covering situation. The Broncos have this swish cheese defense right now that probably keeps the Texans in the game.

Fins -2.5 over Bills,

-I believe in the 6^th seed bound Miami Dolphins. And I believe in Ryan Tannehill.

Bengals -8.5 over Vikings,

-8.5 is a lot. I feel dirty. Giovani Bernard has a big game here though.

Saints +3 over Panthers, 27-26

-Just taking the points. The Saints aren’t nearly as good on the road, but I think they burst the Panthers’ bubble again here.

Jags +5 over Titans, 20-16

-What is so different about these teams that there is a 5 point line, IN Jacksonville? I believe in Gus Bradley, and every game without Mojo is actually a good thing for Jacksonville at this point.

Seahawks -10.5 over Cards, 34-6

-Love the Cards, but not with all these injuries. I’m sitting every Cardinal I have because this is probably going to get ugly.

Lions -9.5 over Giants, 30-17

-Giants are done, and as bad as the Lions have been lately, they need this game. It is go time. If the Lions don’t win this, it’s over for them.

Pats +2.5 over Ravens, 21-20

-Pats getting points versus a team that may not have Rice or Flacco? I’ll just take them and know I’m covering.

Chargers -10 over Raiders, 31-13

-Such a bad defense, and the Chargers need this.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Packers -2.5 over Steelers, 24-21

-A team that needs it versus a team that does not.

49ers -13.5 over Falcons, 20-6

-The Falcons need to actively be trying to lose, and this should be accomplished by halftime here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-5

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:
Straight Up: 102-61
By Spread: 84-80

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 641-344
By Spread: 521-453

NFL 2013 Week 13 Predictions

Lions -6 over Packers, 31-20

-SO excited this is under 7. Megatron is going to put up NUMBERS here.

Cowboys -9 over Raiders, 30-13

-Raiders are not very good, and the Cowboys are finally on the right track here.

Chiefs +6.5 over Broncos, 27-26

-Taking the points. I think the Chiefs have learned from some hurdles the last two weeks, while the Broncos just are falling back to normality.

Colts -4 over Titans, 24-16

-This will be the last week I keep the faith in Luck. I won’t go against him the rest of the year if this goes badly, but I won’t be on the train either.

Bucs +9.5 over Panthers, 20-24

-Purely a cover situation, both teams are now actually playing decently.

Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles, 21-20

-Carson Palmer is like an untrustworthy exGF. It is a bad idea to trust them again, you wince, you try not to, and somehow you decide to do it again. Carson…this is your last chance. Don’t betray my trust.

Dolphins +1.5 over Jets, 24-12

-I trust Tannehill. I don’t trust Geno. I trust Rex not to smartly play Simms over Geno. Questions?

49ers -7.5 over Rams, 24-6

-I don’t like the Niners. But I REALLY don’t like the Cunningham/Klemens-led Rams here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Pats -8 over Texans, 38-17

-I am SO excited. Can someone say “tease with the Lions/Packers game”?

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Bengals +2.5 over Chargers, 31-23

-Bengals should light up that horrid defense, right?

Giants -1 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-16

-Oh, YEAH!

Saints +6.5 over Seahawks, 30-31

-Just cover. And the Seahawks have kept losing cornerbacks like crazy. Don’t be surprised if the Saints just pull this out. Still, I wouldn’t go out on a limb against the Seahawks at home.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-5

By Spread: 6-4

Record this year:
Straight Up: 79-49
By Spread: 68-61

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 618-332
By Spread: 505-434