NFL 2014 Week 7 Predictions

Week 7 Predictions

Ravens -7 over Falcons, 30-17

-Falcons are falling apart. Take out the win over Tampa and those numbers look UGLY.

Seahawks -7 over Rams, 27-7

-Seahawks aren’t losing two in a row and the Seahawks are better than the 49ers team that ran by a Rams team they spotted them two scores last week.

Browns -5.5 over Jags, 17-9

-Tough game, winnable I guess by the Jags. However, if the Browns want to be for real this is a “take care of business win”. Like NE over Oakland in a way.

Colts -3.5 over Bengals, 24-20

-After week 2, this would have been a big line FOR the Bengals. Now, they are legit dogs, and going to lose this one to a roaring Andrew Luck.

Bills -5.5 over Vikings, 20-10

-Bills defense is going to step up after the embarrassing loss to Brady and NE. The Vikings have problems all over the place and no running game is going to help them here.

Saints +3 over Lions, 24-20

-Off the bye, even without Graham, the Saints get on track versus the Lions who are missing Megatron. Brees finds a way.

Packers -7 over Panthers, 37-23

-Seems high, so this is probably a stay away. But the Packers are coming on strong and aren’t really hitting their high point on offense yet. It is coming.

Chargers -4 over Chiefs,

-Tough spot for the Chiefs, but the Chargers showed what I wanted to see last week in that trap game versus Oakland.

Cards -3.5 over Raiders, 20-13

-My eliminator lock of the week, despite the uncertainty here. Just shows the randomness of this particular week. The Cards get that leaky pass defense fixed and physically shove the Raiders around.

Cowboys -6.5 over Giants, 24-13

-I haven’t figured each of these teams out to be honest, but I do know the Cowboys can run the ball. The Giants will feel the loss of Cruz here and going forward.

49ers +6.5 over Broncos, 23-24

-Just taking the points. One of these slow starts is going to stick the Broncos in a hole they can’t get out of. Maybe it is this week. Either way, the points should be enough.

On the Texans-Steelers game, I have no idea. Just take the under.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-2

By Spread: 7-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 46-28

By Spread: 36-36

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 712-383
By Spread: 574-506

NFL 2014 Week 5 Predictions

Week 5 Predictions

Packers -10 over Vikings , 31-13

-With no Bridgewater, the Vikings have no chance. Plus, your weekly Thursday Night Football blowout is obviously in play.

Bears +2.5 over Panthers, 27-16

-One team can score, one team can’t. Also, the Panthers might be starting me at running back this week.

Lions -7 over Bills, 27-19

-This is the adjustment week to Kyle Orton. I think that QB change works out for them overall, but versus the Lions the Bills will have a hard time running the ball. Calvin being healthier will lead them to a win.

Ravens +3.5 over Colts, 23-24

-Just too close for this to be 3.5 points. Baltimore’s media disaster this year is shielding that this is actually a pretty decent team. Andrew Luck, though, continues the streak he is on and grinds out yet another close win in his early career.

Saints -10 over Bucs, 38-27

-If the Saints don’t get it right here, they will never get it right. I’m starting numerous Saints in 1 time use only eliminator leagues.

Eagles -7 over Rams, 30-20

-Eagles are going to score an offensive touchdown. Write it down now, I predicted it. The Rams are a nice team, but I don’t think even off a bye they can score with the Eagles.

Browns +2 over Titans, 24-13

-I don’t think the Titans are good. I know Locker/Whitehurst are no good. The Browns are coming off a bye, and will be well prepared for this game.

Cards +7.5 over Broncos, 27-26

-That Arizona defense is for real. If Demaryus Thomas THOUGHT he was having a bad year, watch out for when he meets Patrick Peterson.

Chargers  -6.5 over Jets, 27-14

-Still hate the Jets. So does Geno Smith, so this is an easy one.

Chiefs +6 over 49ers, 20-17

-I continue to say the Niners aren’t particularly good. We will see how that holds up here.

Pats +1.5 over Bengals, 24-23

-Okay, this is it. If the Pats get blown out, I will step away from my prediction of them as a good team that is going to win 12 games every year. And the Bengals are a tough test. But A. Brady/Belichick don’t lose at home. B. Brady/Belichick don’t lose prime time games. C. Brady/Belichick don’t lose consecutive games. D. Brady/Belichick aren’t scared of Andy Dalton. Here, my thought is if this Pats team is a normal Pats team that is just going through a tough stretch, they will grind this one out behind a pounding running game and some nicely timed turnovers. The return of Brandon Browner should help the secondary improve overall because it allows others to slide back a place or two.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-7

By Spread: 5-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 30-22

By Spread: 24-27

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 694-377
By Spread: 562-497

NFL 2014 Week 1 Predictions

Week 1 Predictions

Saints -3 over Falcons

-I think the Falcons rebound and have a good season, but the Saints are my Super Bowl pick and I think they put up some numbers in this one.

Vikings +3.5 over Rams

-I don’t know what Shaun Hill is going to do. I know what Peterson is going to do. I like getting 3.5 points in close defensive games. Questions?

Steelers -7 over Browns

-Death, taxes, and Steelers beating the Browns. 25-5 over the last 15 years or so.

Eagles -10.5 over Jags

-I feel weird about this pick. The Eagles are going to win, but if the Jags have a sneaky good 6-10 season with some close losses, I wouldn’t be surprised. I like Gus Bradley. This might be a strong tease candidate.

Raiders +5.5 over Jets

-I believe in Derek Carr. I can’t fully explain why, but I really do. And with this Jets secondary being so horrid, I think he can really get his career off to a good start.

                                                                                   

Bengals +1 over Ravens

-This should be close, but the Bengals might have the lines in the AFC on both sides and should dominate this game. I am not sure the Ravens could run anyways, but especially not here.

Bears -7 over Bills

-Marrone fighting with refs on the daily? Bears romp this. Byrd is in NO now, and that hurts the Bills trying to cover the Bears’ receivers deep.

Texans -3 over Ethnic Slurs

-Washington may be a mess, and the Texans are way undervalued right now. I believe in Bill O’Brien.

Chiefs -3 over Titans

-Probably will be a rough game, but I don’t trust Locker.

Pats -5 over Dolphins

-I love Tannehill but not in these games. Pats roll right through. The new look Pats defense will be fascinating to watch.

Colts +8 over Broncos

-Broncos are adjusting on defense, have lost a lot on offense, and this is a good spot for the Colts, who beat Manning last year, to at least cover. In Luck I trust.

Lions -6 over Giants

-There is no way to properly measure how bad I think the Giants are going to be.

The other games are stay aways: Panthers are a mess, the 49ers are a mess, and Arizona-Chargers should be an awesome and close game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-0

By Spread: 1-0

Record last year:
Straight Up: 125-72
By Spread: 101-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 664-355
By Spread: 538-470

NFL 2013 Week 17 Predictions

Bengals -6 over Ravens, 24-16

-Bengals are playing for a possible bye, and the Ravens are coming apart a bit. I wouldn’t trust Flacco’s knee here, and since you can’t trust any of Ray Rice…

Pats -8.5 over Bills, 34-16

-Pats need this, and are rounding into form. They want to earn that week off.

Falcons +6 over Panthers, 17-20

-Falcons are playing everyone close, the Panthers are pretty injured, and it may be a low scoring game. Taking the points.

Steelers -7 over Browns, 24-7

-Steelers need this to have any shot at the playoffs, so they get it.

Packers -3 over Bears, 29-24

-Rodgers is back, and the Bears are ready to disintegrate.

Jags +11.5 over Colts, 20-24

-They hang in every game.

Texans +7.5 over Titans, 19-20

-Just too many points for a team this talented, even on the road.

Fins -5.5 over Jets, 20-13

-Jets have pulled a lot of magic tricks to get even this many wins, but the Dolphins need this to get into the playoffs.

Eagles -6 over Cowboys, 37-23

-This could actually be a big blowout.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Saints -13 over Bucs, 31-17

-A “take care of business” game for the Saints, which I think straightens them out and gets them primed for the first round. It is interesting, everyone has given up on this team. But they will probably beat the Bucs and then have a good chance at the Packers or Eagles. I am not counting this team out quite yet.

Chargers -9.5 over Chiefs, 30-10

-Meaningless game for the Chiefs, who haven’t been exactly stout on defense anyways.

Cards pk over 49ers, 17-15

-The Falcons played the Niners so tough, and the Cards need the win more desperately than San Francisco does.

Seahawks -10.5 over Rams, 24-10

-Still my favorite to win the whole thing, the Seahawks take care of business here and clinch home field throughout.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-5

By Spread: 4-7

Record this year:
Straight Up: 108-66
By Spread: 88-87

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 647-349
By Spread: 525-460

NFL 2013 Week 10 Predictions

Steelers -3 over Bills, 24-20

-Ends Buffalo’s season, pretty much.

Bengals -1 over Ravens, 24-20

-I think we know who both teams are, even without Geno Adkins.

Lions pk over Bears, 31-23

-Bears are actually a good team, but the Lions are losing this being both healthier and coming off a bye. Megatron will have a huge game as usual. And I’m not sure Cutler coming back is a good thing.

Titans -12.5 over Jags, 27-12

-Yeah, this could be bad.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Seahawks -5 over Falcons, 30-23

-I think the Seahawks get the offense on track here, and the Falcons complete the “completely and irrevocably fall apart” they started versus the Panthers.

Colts -9.5 over Rams, 27-14

-TY Hilton. I wouldn’t heavily bet on this cover, but it is probably an easy win straight up.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Panthers +6.5 over 49ers, 26-31

-Just cover please.

Chargers and Broncos….OVER

Cards -1 over Texans,

-Texans season is over, they know it, and the Case Keenum dream run must end. It probably does so against the NFL’s best defense. You heard me, the NFL’s best defense. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-9-dvoa-ratings

Saints -7 over Cowboys, 41-29

-The Saints lost last week. They play in a dome this week. They score a LOT of points. Questions?

Don’t touch Miami-Tampa with a ten foot pole.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6
By Spread: 4-9

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 64-36
By Spread: 51-49

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 598-315
By Spread: 494-425

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Playoff Picture:

NFC Seeds: 1. Packers, 2. Saints, 3. Seahawks, 4. Giants, 5. 49ers, 6. Lions

AFC Seeds: 1. Patriots, 2. Bengals, 3. Colts, 4. Chiefs, 5. Texans, 6. Ravens

Round 1: Seahawks over Lions, 49ers over Giants, Colts over Ravens, Texans over Chiefs

-Lions remain too one dimensional, Giants are flawed, Colts flip the script from last year, Alex Smith out Matt Schaubs Mat Schaub in the playoffs.

Round 2: Packers over 49ers, Saints over Seahawks, Pats over Texans, Bengals over Colts

-Packers figure out the running QB thing, Saints get the home seed and that makes the difference with Seattle in an amazing game, Pats continue to own theTexans, Bengals roll over Colts because no one can cover AJ Green.

Title Games: Packers over Saints, Bengals over Patriots

-The Packers-Saints game is always entertaining, but the Packers are better overall. The Bengals have a ton of talent at key spots and will out tough the Patriots.

Superbowl: Packers over Bengals

-Yeah, Andy Dalton isn’t beating Aaron Rodgers.

Awards

MVP: Tom Brady

-You win the MVP by overcoming odds, adversity, or exceeding expectations. Brady will do his normal thing with the team winning the normal amount of games, but people will fawn over this because of what has gone on with the team in the offseason.

OPY: Drew Brees

-I think 5500 yards and 50 TDs is in play. Brees has somehow never won the MVP and could be a good candidate for that as well. 

DPY: Luke Kuechly

-Luke is going to rack up an insane amount of tackles. 175 tackles, 5 picks, 5 sacks, 15 pressures, 10 deflections is in range and would earn this award.  

ORY: Eddie Lacy

-Based on pure opportunity.

DRY: Kenny Vaccaro

-The Saints are going to allow a lot of completions for Kenny to clean up. 

COY: Pete Carroll

-I would love Sean Payton but there is no way the NFL would let that happen. The Seahawks will have a great group effort and Pete Carroll, somehow, walks away with COY.