2014 NFL Season Preview

2014 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

AFC East – Patriots

-Boring I know, but this team is loaded, only the Dolphins are really threatening, and the schedule seemingly has broken nicely for the Pats. 12-13 wins easy, and the top seed in the AFC.

AFC North – Bengals

-Dominant lines, explosive playmakers, and troublesome issues for each of the division mates.

AFC South – Colts

-Luck. Locker. Fitzpatrick. Bortles. Let’s move along.

AFC West – Broncos

-Boring like the Pats, but makes the most sense. 11 wins easy. The West will better than people think so.

Wild Cards: Dolphins and Chargers

-Tannehill takes a step forward, and the Chargers remain offensively efficient while improving the pass defense.

AFC Championship – Patriots over Colts

NFC East – Eagles

-The Eagles are the most complete team. The Giants have little talent, the Ethnic Slurs have a bad defense, and the Cowboys are the Cowboys and destined to be 8-8.

NFC North – Packers

-This is a loaded division; the Packers still have Aaron Rodgers. They dominate the divisional matchups and maximize their most balanced offense in years.

NFC South – Saints

-I love this Saints team. They have a much better defense than they have had in past years, and Cooks evens out the offense. They get 13 wins and the top overall seed.

NFC West – Seahawks

-Tough break for the 49ers again, but Seattle gets

Wild Cards: Lions and Bears

-Both good teams, both would win just about any other division but are stuck with the Packers.

NFC Championship – Saints over Packers

-Quite a shootout, but the Saints have more balance and home field matters here.

Superbowl: Saints over Patriots

-I want to pick the Pats because of their improvements on defense, but the Saints have the look to me.

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

-He is the best player, and will have the best statistical season efficiency wise. Manning will regress, and Brees/Brady have their most talented defenses in years so won’t press as much.

OPY: Drew Brees

-6000 yards and 60 Touchdowns is in play. You heard me.

DPY: Luke Kuechly

-He is a machine.

ORY: Brandin Cook

-He is going to have a crazy weird statline. I think 60 catches for 1150 yards and 10 TDs is in play.

DRY: Jadeveon Clowney

-What a monster. And he is getting single teamed because of Watt!

COY: Sean Payton

-General Saints dominance.

NFL 2013 Week 13 Predictions

Lions -6 over Packers, 31-20

-SO excited this is under 7. Megatron is going to put up NUMBERS here.

Cowboys -9 over Raiders, 30-13

-Raiders are not very good, and the Cowboys are finally on the right track here.

Chiefs +6.5 over Broncos, 27-26

-Taking the points. I think the Chiefs have learned from some hurdles the last two weeks, while the Broncos just are falling back to normality.

Colts -4 over Titans, 24-16

-This will be the last week I keep the faith in Luck. I won’t go against him the rest of the year if this goes badly, but I won’t be on the train either.

Bucs +9.5 over Panthers, 20-24

-Purely a cover situation, both teams are now actually playing decently.

Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles, 21-20

-Carson Palmer is like an untrustworthy exGF. It is a bad idea to trust them again, you wince, you try not to, and somehow you decide to do it again. Carson…this is your last chance. Don’t betray my trust.

Dolphins +1.5 over Jets, 24-12

-I trust Tannehill. I don’t trust Geno. I trust Rex not to smartly play Simms over Geno. Questions?

49ers -7.5 over Rams, 24-6

-I don’t like the Niners. But I REALLY don’t like the Cunningham/Klemens-led Rams here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Pats -8 over Texans, 38-17

-I am SO excited. Can someone say “tease with the Lions/Packers game”?

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Bengals +2.5 over Chargers, 31-23

-Bengals should light up that horrid defense, right?

Giants -1 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-16

-Oh, YEAH!

Saints +6.5 over Seahawks, 30-31

-Just cover. And the Seahawks have kept losing cornerbacks like crazy. Don’t be surprised if the Saints just pull this out. Still, I wouldn’t go out on a limb against the Seahawks at home.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-5

By Spread: 6-4

Record this year:
Straight Up: 79-49
By Spread: 68-61

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 618-332
By Spread: 505-434

NFL 2013 Week 12 Predictions

Panthers -4.5 over Dolphins, 26-14

-A lot of letdown potential, but they should handle the Dolphins.

Jags +10.5 over Texans, 14-17

-The Texans don’t get 10 points over anyone right now.

Vikings +4.5 over Packers, 20-21

-Tolzien makes terrified.

Ravens -3.5 over Jets, 20-11

-Ravens are a better team, the Jets are mostly smoke and mirrors.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Chargers +4.5 over Chiefs, 23-24

-Just because they play teams close every single time.

Lions -9.5 over Bucs, 31-21

-MEGATRON.

Colts +3.5 over Cards, 20-19

-Andrew Luck for the rest of his career, when given points, is going to be an automatic play for me. It just became a rule.

Giants PK over Cowboys, 37-34

-Oh boy.

Patriots +2.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-Broncos are probably the safter bet, but I’m going with a combination of “Brady is 9-4 versus Manning, the Pats don’t lose at home, the Pats don’t lose two in a row, the Pats are insulted to be home dogs” kicking in for this game.

49ers -4.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-13

-Damn, I can’t pick against the 49ers this week because they play the other team I think the public overvalues. Kaep might actually have a good passing day here. This might be painful to watch.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-4
By Spread: 5-5

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 75-44
By Spread: 62-57

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 614-327
By Spread: 499-430

NFL 2013 Week 9 Predictions

Bengals -3 over Dolphins, 27-20

-I like the Fins, but this probably ends the competitive portion of their season. Mike Wallace would normally take advantage the Bengals being without Leon Hall, but that would require Mike Wallace to be conscious and try.

Falcons +7.5 over Panthers, 26-27

-Panthers win, but 7.5 is about a half point too much.

Cowboys -9.5 over Vikings, 31-13

-I am comfortable with laying almost 10 points with Tony Romo, I am comfortable with laying almost 10 points with Tony Romo…..

Saints -4.5 over Jets, 30-10

-A line I don’t understand, but will embrace.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Titans -3.5 over Rams, 24-16

-Titans are a tough little team, and the Rams aren’t nearly as good as they almost looked Monday night.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Chiefs -3.5 over Bills, 17-10

-After 6 straight covers, the Chiefs have dropped 2 in a row. That is breaking now, and the Chiefs get a half dozen sacks.

Chargers +1 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-23

-Yes please. How are the Slurs favored here?

Raiders over Eagles, 26-11

-Man it makes me pained to choose Pryor for anything but a tattoo artist recommendation, but I’m doing it here. Yes I predicted 11 points.

Seahawks -15 over Bucs, 38-16

-Schiano fired, no question. I like Glennon, but this might be embarrassing.

Ravens -3 over Browns, 23-17

-A “we need this” team versus a “it would be nice” team.

Patriots -7 over Steelers, 26-13

-Pats are winning winnable games, the Steelers are losing winnable games. Pretty clear to me.

Colts -2 over Texans, 24-13

-2? 2?! 2! Take it! Run!

Packers -7.5 over Bears, 31-20

-Too many injuries to overcome, and Rodgers is in 2006 Brady mode (And Nelson/Boykins is still better than Caldwell/Doug Gabriel).

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-0
By Spread: 5-3

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 57-30
By Spread: 47-40

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 591-309
By Spread: 490-416

NFL 2013 Week 6 Predictions

Lions -2.5 over Browns, 27-23
-The Lions, assuming Calvin plays, are a much better team than Cleveland. The Browns have a legit defense, but can't score with Detroit. 

Staying away from bad-bad matchups in NYJ-PIT and PHI-TB, and the uncertainty over Peterson's status for CAR-MIN makes me want to be away from that either. 

Bengals -7.5 over Bills, 30-6
-Thad Lewis? Should be a romp, even with Byrd's return to Buffalo's secondary. 
-Best Eliminator Pick

Raiders +10 over Chiefs, 17-26
-Should be an easy win, but the Chiefs probably shouldn't be laying this many points against anyone. If they cover, it will be because of defensive or special team TDs. 

Rams +7.5 over Texans, 23-24
-Way too many points. A pure upset wouldn't surprise me here. 

Packers -3.5 over Ravens, 31-22
-The Ravens continue to have injuries mount, and I don't think they can score with Green Bay anyways. 

Jags +27.5 over Broncos, 17-30
-A win, just not a romp. Justin Blackmon has a big game. Some guy named Manning does too, but I don't think anyone owns him in fantasy though. 

Seahawks -13.5 over Titans, 27-12
-No Locker, the Fitzpatrick rule is in effect. Seattle's DEF/ST is a great play. 

Pats -2.5 over Saints, 34-30
-Saints aren't the same on the road in colder weather, and the Pats don't lose two in a row. That simple. If the Pats lose, I fully anoint the Saints as my favorite in the NFC and probably overall and finally readjust my thinking of the Pats as an elite team. I admit I am borderline on that topic already. 

Cowboys -5.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-13
-Is there a reason this is in the Vegas zone and not a full 7-9 point line? Just RGIII respect? Oh well, take it and run. The Washington defense is horrible and the Cowboys are a competent football team with an explosive offense. 
-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Colts -1.5 over Chargers, 30-24
-Probably a good game, but the start of Andrew Luck dominating in prime time games. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-4
By Spread: 5-4
Record this year: 
Straight Up: 36-23
By Spread: 33-26

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 570-302
By Spread: 476-402

NFL 2013 Week 4 Predictions

Ravens -3 over Bills, 20-14

-It seems the Bills aren’t good.

Bengals -5 over Browns, 27-19

-I am pretty sure the Bengals are good, and the Browns just beat an also bad Vikings team and we are about to overvalue them and Trent Richardson’s Ewing theory.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Seahawks -2.5 over Texans, 24-13

-Seahawks giving less than 2.5 over a mediocre team with Matt Schaub and an over the hill Arian Foster/dinged up Andre Johnson? Hell yes.

Colts -8.5 over Jaguars, 30-13

-Easiest pick. Luck could pile up stats like crazy here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Vikings +3.5 over Steelers, 20-17

-I’m just taking the points and Peterson. Steelers shouldn’t be favored under any circumstances.

Titans -3 over Jets, 20-12

-I still don’t particularly like Jake Locker, but the overall team talent here is really different. And 2-1 just screams “regression” to me.

Cardinals +2.5 over Bucs, 17-16

-Glennon versus Peterson/Matheiu.

Raiders +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-17

-I am taking any and all points against the Ethnic Slurs this season.

Cowboys -2 over Chargers, 27-24

-Cowboys could actually win a game they should, putting a pretty strong hold on their division by week 5 (strangely). I mean, I think the Cowboys are capable of this.

Pats +3 over Falcons, 31-28

-Taking the Pats for me isn’t automatic, though it is close. When the Pats are getting points, however, that is pretty automatic. As much as the Pats aren’t whole right now, the Falcons really aren’t whole. And I think Gronk returning changes a LOT.

Saints -6.5 over Fins, 38-30

-So let’s talk Tannehill. I really love his evolution. He has shown everything about developing into an elite talent. The game winning drive against Atlanta was picture perfect. So I have high hopes for this guy…..but not this week. The Saints are a far more legit 3-0 than Miami, as much as I think both find their way into the post season. The Saints found their scoring vibe last week, and won’t let up in this one. Also, good luck covering Jimmy Graham right now.

Record last week:
Straight Up: 6-6
By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 24-15
By Spread: 21-18

Record last year:
Straight Up: 155-87
By Spread: 126-110

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 558-294  
By Spread: 464-394

NFL 2013 Week 2 Predictions

Chargers +8.5 over Eagles, 20-27

-That’s just a lot of points to cover.

Ravens -6.5 over Browns, 24-16

-Brandon Weeden involved? Brandon Weeden involved.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Texans -10 over Titans, 27-13

-Titans aren’t good. Jake Locker is quickly joining a group that needs to get together for drinks and enjoy their starts while they can. (Weeden, Locker, Ponder, Gabbert, and captain of the group, Josh Freeman).

Rams +6 over Falcons, 24-20

-Injuries man, injuries. The Rams are legit anyways. Daryl Richardson is a sneaky play this week. I am playing him over Gore in two leagues.

Pack -6.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-20

-Strongly under consideration for my Eliminator pick of the week. Based on what we saw last week, and the fact that there is zero chance Aaron Rodgers is letting them go 0-2, this should be an easy win for GB.

Cowboys +3.5 over Chiefs, 22-24

-The Cowboys lose painfully in the last minute, but it is good enough to cover.

Bears -6 over Vikings, 27-16

-The secret is out…the Vikings aren’t very good.

Saints -3.5 over Bucs, 34-17

-What games were everyone watching last week for this to be a 3.5 point line? The Saints beat a good Falcons team…and the Bucs got humiliated by the Jets. This could be a romp.

Lions -2 over Cards, 37-24

-I actually have respect for how well the Cards played last week, but I don’t know if that is repeatable, especially if Fitz is limited. The Lions on the other hand are this good, and could have scored 60 points last week if not for stupid issues and random events.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Raiders -6 - Jags +6, eww. That’s it, no pick, just an icky feeling. They should black this game out on ESPN’s scrolling bottom line.

Giants +4.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-Just a feeling.

Seahawks -3 over 49ers, 27-19

-More than a feeling.

Bengals -7 over Steelers, 31-10

-Emotionally invested. They are my AFC pick after all. Plus, you know, the Steelers are bad AND hurt.

Record last week:
Straight Up: 10-5 (66.7%)
By Spread: 8-7 (53.3%)

Record last year:
Straight Up: 155-87 (64%)
By Spread: 126-110 (53.4%)

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 544-284 (65.7%)
By Spread: 451-383 (54.1%)

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Playoff Picture:

NFC Seeds: 1. Packers, 2. Saints, 3. Seahawks, 4. Giants, 5. 49ers, 6. Lions

AFC Seeds: 1. Patriots, 2. Bengals, 3. Colts, 4. Chiefs, 5. Texans, 6. Ravens

Round 1: Seahawks over Lions, 49ers over Giants, Colts over Ravens, Texans over Chiefs

-Lions remain too one dimensional, Giants are flawed, Colts flip the script from last year, Alex Smith out Matt Schaubs Mat Schaub in the playoffs.

Round 2: Packers over 49ers, Saints over Seahawks, Pats over Texans, Bengals over Colts

-Packers figure out the running QB thing, Saints get the home seed and that makes the difference with Seattle in an amazing game, Pats continue to own theTexans, Bengals roll over Colts because no one can cover AJ Green.

Title Games: Packers over Saints, Bengals over Patriots

-The Packers-Saints game is always entertaining, but the Packers are better overall. The Bengals have a ton of talent at key spots and will out tough the Patriots.

Superbowl: Packers over Bengals

-Yeah, Andy Dalton isn’t beating Aaron Rodgers.

Awards

MVP: Tom Brady

-You win the MVP by overcoming odds, adversity, or exceeding expectations. Brady will do his normal thing with the team winning the normal amount of games, but people will fawn over this because of what has gone on with the team in the offseason.

OPY: Drew Brees

-I think 5500 yards and 50 TDs is in play. Brees has somehow never won the MVP and could be a good candidate for that as well. 

DPY: Luke Kuechly

-Luke is going to rack up an insane amount of tackles. 175 tackles, 5 picks, 5 sacks, 15 pressures, 10 deflections is in range and would earn this award.  

ORY: Eddie Lacy

-Based on pure opportunity.

DRY: Kenny Vaccaro

-The Saints are going to allow a lot of completions for Kenny to clean up. 

COY: Pete Carroll

-I would love Sean Payton but there is no way the NFL would let that happen. The Seahawks will have a great group effort and Pete Carroll, somehow, walks away with COY.