NFL 2014 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Packers +7.5 over Seahawks, 24-30

-If this goes near 6 or 5.5, jump on Seattle. 7.5 points is just disrespectful. I love Aaron Rodgers, best player in football this side of JJ Watt. But Seattle is on another level and wins this game outright. Wilson continues his unreal run and Seattle physically beats the hell out of Green Bay on both sides of the ball.

Pats -7 over Colts, 38-24

-Luck is great, but it isn’t time yet. He has progressed from the WC round to the divisional round to the championship round over the last three years. It stops here, on schedule. The Pats know this formula, and unlike the Broncos can execute it: run it and kill them with TEs in the middle of the field. The RBs for the Pats will get the carries they need (why Denver didn’t give CJ thirty carries I don’t know), and Gronk is healthy while Julius Thomas was not.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 4-0

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 135-75

By Spread: 109-99

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 800-430
By Spread: 647-569

NFL 2013 Week 14 Predictions

Bills +3 over Bucs, 19-17

-Two bad teams with potential, so a FG seems right. That’s one road FG underdog I am taking this week….

Pats -11 over Browns, 30-16

-Who’s playing QB for the Browns? And at home too?

Lions +3.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I truly believe the Lions are better. And odds are sooner or later Foles throws that first pick (that isn’t called back on a stupid penalty). This is the second time I am taking a FG underdog on the road.

Colts +6.5 over Bengals, 20-22

-Just too many points for an Andrew Luck team.

Chiefs -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-17

-As Bill Simmons pointed out in his Cousin Sal podcast, the Chiefs’ winning this week means that they clinch the 5 seed and can rest the remaining part of the regular season. Weird.

Dolphins +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Third time here I am taking the FG over a home team, but in close games what choice do I have?

Ravens -7 over Vikings, 20-12

-Vikings should be ashamed of themselves, going 1-0-1 the last few weeks. They will start to lose soon, as they should.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Raiders +3 over Jets, 17-3

-Make that four times….

Broncos -11.5 over Titans, 31-14

-Don’t like it, but I am taking the layup.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Giants +3 over Chargers, 27-26

-Make that five times….

Seahawks +2.5 over Niners, 16-13

-Make that six times…..Seattle is just better

Rams +6 over Cards, 13-17

-Reports of Palmer possibly not playing are making me nervous.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 89-51
By Spread: 75-66

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 628-334
By Spread: 512-439

NFL 2013 Week 4 Predictions

Ravens -3 over Bills, 20-14

-It seems the Bills aren’t good.

Bengals -5 over Browns, 27-19

-I am pretty sure the Bengals are good, and the Browns just beat an also bad Vikings team and we are about to overvalue them and Trent Richardson’s Ewing theory.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Seahawks -2.5 over Texans, 24-13

-Seahawks giving less than 2.5 over a mediocre team with Matt Schaub and an over the hill Arian Foster/dinged up Andre Johnson? Hell yes.

Colts -8.5 over Jaguars, 30-13

-Easiest pick. Luck could pile up stats like crazy here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Vikings +3.5 over Steelers, 20-17

-I’m just taking the points and Peterson. Steelers shouldn’t be favored under any circumstances.

Titans -3 over Jets, 20-12

-I still don’t particularly like Jake Locker, but the overall team talent here is really different. And 2-1 just screams “regression” to me.

Cardinals +2.5 over Bucs, 17-16

-Glennon versus Peterson/Matheiu.

Raiders +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-17

-I am taking any and all points against the Ethnic Slurs this season.

Cowboys -2 over Chargers, 27-24

-Cowboys could actually win a game they should, putting a pretty strong hold on their division by week 5 (strangely). I mean, I think the Cowboys are capable of this.

Pats +3 over Falcons, 31-28

-Taking the Pats for me isn’t automatic, though it is close. When the Pats are getting points, however, that is pretty automatic. As much as the Pats aren’t whole right now, the Falcons really aren’t whole. And I think Gronk returning changes a LOT.

Saints -6.5 over Fins, 38-30

-So let’s talk Tannehill. I really love his evolution. He has shown everything about developing into an elite talent. The game winning drive against Atlanta was picture perfect. So I have high hopes for this guy…..but not this week. The Saints are a far more legit 3-0 than Miami, as much as I think both find their way into the post season. The Saints found their scoring vibe last week, and won’t let up in this one. Also, good luck covering Jimmy Graham right now.

Record last week:
Straight Up: 6-6
By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 24-15
By Spread: 21-18

Record last year:
Straight Up: 155-87
By Spread: 126-110

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 558-294  
By Spread: 464-394

NFL 2012 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Time for the annual quest to go 11-0 in the playoff picks. Good luck everyone.

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Nothing changed there.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both shaky but it really seems they will be there in the end.

In Contention: Atlanta and Seattle. For different reasons, don’t know if they will be there in the end.

Week 18: Wild Card Weekend

Bengals +4.5 over Houston, 23-19

-Calling the pure upset. Houston is in free fall, its star RB looks worn out and may have a heart problem, and its QB is playing horribly right now. It wouldn’t surprise me if I found out that Matt Schaub was hiding a major arm injury, because he clearly isn’t the same guy. AJ Green is going to torch the Texans. I trust in him as a top 5 game changer at his position. Like Calvin, AJ can bust a game open even if the QB isn't on. But Geno Atkins especially makes me scared to go against the Bengals here. I think he dominates as he has done all season. Finally this is revenge for the Bengals. They still feel like they could have won last year versus TJ freaking Yates, and everything is setup for them to finally do so now.

Colts +6.5 over Ravens, 24-19

-I really believe that the Colts will upset the Ravens this weekend. I predicted it weeks ago. I have a friend that can attest to this fact. And for those claiming Chuckstrong is counteracted by Ray Lewis's return/retirement news, stop. Lewis already has his announcing gig lined up, clearly has his mind elsewhere now. He isn't that good anymore anyways. The Colts are riding high and coming in with good vibes from their win over the Texans, a game they didn’t need and the Texans did. The Ravens will have trouble with Wayne and even Ballard. While it is true Flacco tends to get better in the playoffs, his general inconsistency scares me. And somehow, despite Ray Rice having the potential to run all over Indy, I think he gets a strong lack of carries. BAL key guard Yanda either won’t play or will be playing hurt. Luck is really good and has that special something, kind of Big Ben esch, and I think they move on. So ends an era from Raven football.

Packers -7.5 over Vikings, 37-20

-I know the purple men from northern Europe just won this matchup last week, but that was different. The Viks were at home, and the Pack were playing for seeding, not their playoff lives. Big difference. Last week featured both a strong multi TD game from Rodgers and a 200 yard game from Peterson with no big runs. Guess which situation I find more replicable? Packers are also getting Woodson and Cobb back, and will unleash Matthews full force. Finally, it is pretty much impossible for Tramon Williams to be that bad again. However, it is fully possible for Christian Ponder to be much much worse than he was. Green Bay is my pick to go to the Super Bowl from NFC, and nothing in this game is going to distract me from that.

Seahawks -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 26-17

-It should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I am taking the Seahawks over the Ethnic Slurs. In a battle of rookie quarterbacks with a style I don't particularly like, I will take the quiet inconsistent leadership of Russell Wilson over the hobbled and overly simplified offense of RG3. However, the truth is the difference in this matchup will probably come mostly come from the vast disparity in their defensive secondaries. Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner should easily dominate their matchups and cause Griffin to have the biggest problems in his young career.  On the other side however, the WAS defense, held together by sticks, glue, and strong play calling, will finally be exposed for its lack of talent. This is mainly due to injury and isn’t their fault, but is just the truth. It will not matter that Seattle is on the road.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-4

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 141-75

By Spread: 110-100

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 530-272
By Spread: 435-373

NFL 2012 Week 15 Predictions

Okay, not a good week by me. I got a lot of the basics right, but the lines were all off for some reason. I am hoping with many playoff pictures clearing up, I will be able to hit a better percentage this week.

By the way, I am staying away from NYJ-TEN this week, mainly because I have no idea how that is going to go. However, the best part of that game is that because it is the MNF game, we all will know how our fantasy matchups ended up because NO ONE SHOULD BE PLAYING ANYONE FROM THAT GAME IN A SERIOUS MATCH.  

Bengals -4.5 over Eagles, 28-22

-One team needs it. One team is not only out but got its “crap we can’t go into the offseason on a 12 game losing streak so let’s just win ONE of these games” game out of the way. I am going to totally ignore this logic with Arizona later.

Ravens +3.5 over Broncos, 23-24

-Broncos are hot right now but these Ravens are still tough. Ravens could do the Pats a favor and pull the Broncos out of the 2-seed conversation, but I think it is more likely only a cover.

Packers -3 over Bears, 27-20

-My team is just going the WRONG way. Marshall continues his streak and has a big game here though.

Colts +9.5 over Texans, 24-30

-If this were in Indy, I’d pick the upset. The timing is just right. But it is in Houston, so the cover is the deal here. 9.5 points GIVEN to a 9-4 team. Um, disrespect much? You know what? Screw it. Colts +9.5 over Texans, 24-23. I’m going for it.

Jags +7.5 over Fins, 14-20

-The Dolphins lay 7.5 to no team.

Vikings +2.5 over Rams, 21-20

-One team has one dynamic player. There’s your difference.

Giants +1.5 over Falcons, 31-13

-Remember the playoffs? The Giants do, but I am pretty sure all the Falcons have spent some time trying to repress that memory.

Saints -3.5 over Bucs, 30-26

-A lot of points, Bucs are now falling off so the Saints win.

Browns +2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 22-20

-Assuming RG3 doesn’t play or plays rusty and slow. Browns are better than you think, and the Dog Pound should get up for this one. This is a nice young team learning how to win. Of course, you could say the same about Washington, but their rookie is injured.

Panthers +3.5 over Chargers, 21-20

-Cam is hot, and the Chargers still have Norv Turner.

Lions -6 over Cards, 31-3

-Cards are just bad. Brian Hoyer, fresh off the waiver wire, is clearly their best option at QB. Ugh.

Seahawks -5.5 over Bills, 24-13

-Bills weren’t good then lost a top three player on their team and their starting center. Seahawks D might be the most common “player” on championship teams this year.

Raiders -3 over Chiefs, 17-11

-Because at least the Raiders can score. Somewhat.

Cowboys +2 over Steelers, 20-19

-Because the Steelers still aren’t completely healthy and the Cowboys are inherently unpredictable.

Patriots -5 over 49ers, 30-20

-It would be hard to predict NE to beat two tough opponents in a row, but the games are at home, the Pats don’t lose there or in December, and they are clicking like crazy right now. Pats’ DVOA is somewhat ridiculous. Two quick points: 1. Brady took the three extra days after Thanksgiving to break down SF then since he knew he would need the extra time to study them. 2. The Pats, assuming Gronk is back and healthy for the playoffs, will have Lloyd Welker Gronk and Hernandez together for the 1^st time since Week 1. This could be the third highest scoring team EVER and have its best players healthy only once or twice all season long.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-6

By Spread: 4-10

Record this year:

Straight Up: 108-65

By Spread: 89-84

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 497-262
By Spread: 409-357