NFL 2013 Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Seahawks +3 over Broncos, 37-14

-The Broncos are wearing orange for the Super Bowl. They are 0-3 in Super Bowls in that outfit. The Seahawks are 2-0 this year in their white top, navy blue bottom road outfits, both times winning by 23 points exactly.

So, obviously the 'Hawks are winning by 23 points, and all is right with the world. Okay, so it will probably be more complicated by that.

Here is the deal: the best comp to this game is the 2002-2003 title game. Defensive monsters Tampa Bay plays Rich Gannon’s cerebral offense and Oakland. Tampa had a really athletic, creatively schemed defense. Rich Gannon was an aging quarterback, considered an offensive genius. He had some limited physical abilities, but overall used his mind and knowledge of schemes to great effect. Denver's receivers are really young while Oakland's were really seasoned, but overall the comparison works. And of course, Tampa Bay romped that Super Bowl with numerous picks and generally causing mayhem with Gannon's timing and productivity. 

Here’s a great stat: there have been 7 teams to set the record for most points in season. All 7 failed to win the title. 2007 Patriots, 1998 Vikings, so many other high scoring teams. Perhaps it is because those teams play 3 games in 5 weeks before the big game and get out of rhythm. Maybe other teams figure out how to better scheme for them. Maybe it is just hard to maintain that pace.

The best player on the field is Manning, it is pretty hard to debate that. The next best 6 players are from Seattle. Sherman, Earl Thomas, Lynch, Bennett, Chancellor, Wilson. Seattle is stacked on each line. They are healthy, getting their only injured player (Harvin) back, reinforcing their only true weakness, WR. WR is the only place Seattle is completely outclassed by Denver, and defending WRs is coincidentally Seattle’s specialty.

Denver takes advantage of matchups. D. Thomas is an athletic freak, but Sherman can stay with him. Decker takes advantage of unorganized second CBs or FSs, but Seattle will stay disciplined with him. Welker won’t find any friendly lanes inside, and the corners and safeties can get to him outside on those rub routes. Julius Thomas kills many matchups like Gronk and Graham do, but we’ve already seen what Seattle does to athletic TEs. Jimmy Graham was barely existent in the SEA-NO game. Both safeties and most of their LBs can detach into coverage and take Julius out of play. Seattle is about to make Denver’s advantage to being a normal matchup at most. And if Seattle has to win this game by stopping Knowshon Moreno, it will take that path willingly.

Denver’s only real major advantage besides QB seems to be on the interior of the defensive line. They match up well against Seattle’s interior line and Knighton should dominate there. But otherwise, the matchups predict a draw or Seattle victory.

The weather either doesn’t affect the game at all, or favors Seattle. There isn’t really a scenario where Denver benefits from the conditions unless it was 70 and sunny with no wind. Believe me, I lived in New York City for 4 years: it won't be 70 and sunny with no wind in February. 

Seattle’s DVOA is so far and away superior to Denver’s, it really puts this game into context. Seattle’s total was 40.1% to Denver’s 32.8%. Denver wins on offense 33.7%to 9.4%, but gets creamed on Defense and Special Teams (25.8% to .2% and 4.8% to -1.1%). And Denver’s special teams regresses some from its already negative value because Prater’s advantage home/road disappears here.

So really, considering the injuries on the Denver O-Line and their shoddy secondary (especially with Harvin returning), and the Seattle advantage on Special Teams, I expect this to be a rout. The 3 points is a free play, and really the +125/+130 is a gift. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-1

By Spread: 1-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 124-72
By Spread: 100-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 663-355
By Spread: 537-470