NFL 2014 Week 16 Predictions

Week 16 Predictions

Eagles -8.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-17

-I am not watching one second of this game. I think McCoy is a good daily league start though.

Chargers +3 over 49ers, 24-13

-He should go to Michigan, right?

Saints -6.5 over Falcons, 34-17

-The Falcons pass defense is abhorrent.

Chiefs +3.5 over Steelers, 20-17

-I don’t trust the Steelers. Or like them. Kansas City is going to have some offensive surprises for them. Heck, maybe even a WR will score!

Ravens -4 over Texans, 24-13

-Tom Savage? Thad Lewis? Case Keenum? Oi.

Packers -10 over Bucs, 41-17

-There is no end to how many points the Packers put up this week.

Lions -4.5 over Bears, 30-7

-Jimmy Clausen, meet Suh.

Panthers -3.5 over Browns, 22-10

-The Panthers need this and the Browns are probably already out of it.

Pats -10 over Jets, 28-10

-Probably an overall boring game, that is why I am projecting this to be so low.

Raiders +7.5 over Bills, 13-19

-Kyle Orton lays over a touchdown to NO team.

Colts +3.5 over Cowboys, 23-21

-Luck over a banged up Cowboys team on national TV GETTING over a FG? Yes please.

Seahawks -7.5 over Cards, 27-10

-Ryan Lindley everyone! Oh, I think he already threw an interception.

Broncos -3.5 over Bengals, 28-20

-Manning in prime time versus Dalton in prime time. I wish it were different, but I can’t ignore both clear histories here.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-2

By Spread:  4-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 113-61

By Spread: 88-84

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 780-416
By Spread: 626-554

NFL 2013 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Colts -2.5 over Chiefs, 21-17

-The Colts are getting right at the correct time. FootballOutsiders has them at the lowest odds of winning the whole thing. While I get why the numbers support that, and that there is little chance of the Colts advancing past the title game round, I think this is a solid bet right now. The Colts have the Ravens ‘13/Packers ‘11 mojo of a strong start, dropping off toward the end of the year, young QB breaking into the elite, and looking good at the very end of the regular season. The Chiefs are going the wrong way, are getting out schemed, and have some injury concerns. In the playoffs, it often comes down to the team with the better QB so often, and the Colts are winning that battle.

Saints +2.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I know, I know. The Saints aren’t any good outdoors/on the road. Well, we have no idea how these Eagles will be in the playoffs at all, and we know Brees and co. can win a Superbowl. Again, I am taking the better QB, this one in a little more of a shootout. If the Eagles get a lead though, this is actually probably over early because they will run it all over the Saints. But, I think Brees gets the Saints ahead and stays there.

Bengals -7 over Chargers, 33-23

-This is the game I feel most comfortable about. The Chargers are the second lowest projected FO Super Bowl team and that I can agree with. I picked the Bengals to make the Superbowl, and still feel okay about that despite the Hall and Adkins injuries. Green and Gio both go off in a big Cincy win. One year too early for the Chargers, who will draft heavily on defense and develop next year.

Packers +2.5 over Niners, 24-16

-This will be the third time in a 365 day span these two teams have played, a rarity for non division opponents. They know each other well, and are in very different spots than the first time. I think this is the matchup where the Packers flip the script. When they met last January, the Packers were the established offense and the Niners the upstarts who were newly developing an offense around a QB who only had a few starts. Now, the Niners have been rolling (successfully?) with their offense for a year plus, while the Packers were a pass team that became a run team with a different QB and now have gotten their All-Pro QB back for good. And if at any point, the Packers have learned how to stop Colin K and that rushing offense, now would be the time to implement it. Here is a thought: stop Davis and Boldin. They caught 20 of Kaep’s 21 TDs this year. That limited offense, with a think an almost worn out Frank Gore, gives the Packers the victory. And if Aaron Rodgers is allowed to get hot, watch out NFC.


As for the overall picture, the best prediction for the Superbowl is the boring one: Seattle over Denver. I really don't see anyone else besides maybe the Packers winning the NFC. The AFC is coming down to the Broncos, Pats, and maybe the Bengals. I like the Pats' chances, but the injuries are probably too much. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 118-68
By Spread: 96-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 657-351
By Spread: 533-465

NFL 2013 Week 15 Predictions

Bears -1 over Browns, 21-18

-Very nervous Jay Cutler isn’t what they need to be doing.

Colts -5.5 over Texans, 20-13

-WADE PHILLIPS EVERYONE! Get excited!

Pats -1 over Fins, 24-22

-Could be close. Brady doesn’t lose in December though.

Eagles -5 over Vikings, 27-17

-No Peterson? No thanks.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Seahawks -7 over Giants, 24-16

-Seahawks not nearly as good on the road but they are so far and away better than the Giants this isn’t even a thought.

Chiefs -4.5 over Raiders, 16-6

-Oh man, I am so excited to see this game be a scintillating game totaling less than 30.

Panthers -11 over Jets, 26-10

-Panthers are going to be just fine. Geno has not. 11 is a lot though….tease….

-Best Eliminator Pick

Cards -2.5 over Titans, 24-14

-Playoff team versus non. This is starting to be my biggest decision making element.

Saints -6 over Rams, 31-16

-Saints take care of business, no sweat here.

Bengals -2.5 over Steelers, 21-17

-Simply a case of one team being in it and another being out.

Lions -5 over Ravens, 37-27

-Ravens just don’t score easily enough to stay into this.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-5

By Spread: 4-8

Record this year:
Straight Up: 96-56
By Spread: 79-74

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 635-339
By Spread: 516-447

NFL 2013 Week 10 Predictions

Steelers -3 over Bills, 24-20

-Ends Buffalo’s season, pretty much.

Bengals -1 over Ravens, 24-20

-I think we know who both teams are, even without Geno Adkins.

Lions pk over Bears, 31-23

-Bears are actually a good team, but the Lions are losing this being both healthier and coming off a bye. Megatron will have a huge game as usual. And I’m not sure Cutler coming back is a good thing.

Titans -12.5 over Jags, 27-12

-Yeah, this could be bad.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Seahawks -5 over Falcons, 30-23

-I think the Seahawks get the offense on track here, and the Falcons complete the “completely and irrevocably fall apart” they started versus the Panthers.

Colts -9.5 over Rams, 27-14

-TY Hilton. I wouldn’t heavily bet on this cover, but it is probably an easy win straight up.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Panthers +6.5 over 49ers, 26-31

-Just cover please.

Chargers and Broncos….OVER

Cards -1 over Texans,

-Texans season is over, they know it, and the Case Keenum dream run must end. It probably does so against the NFL’s best defense. You heard me, the NFL’s best defense. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2013/week-9-dvoa-ratings

Saints -7 over Cowboys, 41-29

-The Saints lost last week. They play in a dome this week. They score a LOT of points. Questions?

Don’t touch Miami-Tampa with a ten foot pole.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6
By Spread: 4-9

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 64-36
By Spread: 51-49

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 598-315
By Spread: 494-425

NFL 2013 Week 7 Predictions

Falcons -6.5 over Bucs, 20-12

-It’s not about Julio and Roddy. It’s about Glennon and Schiano.

Bengals +3.5 over Lions, 24-23

-Just a matchup thing. The Bengals do great against pass offenses.

Fins -7.5 over Bills, 24-13

-Tighter if it is Thad Lewis. A romp if it is Matt Flynn.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Pats -4 over Jets, 38-13

-I feel it coming. It is almost there!

Jags +7.5 over Chargers, 20-19

-Who is feeling a standard Norv Turner letdown? Wait, he got fired? That’s embarrassing. Um, who is feeling a feisty Jags team that is firing the ball downfield each play and is playing a West Coast team going East on a short week?!

Bears -1 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-17

-I’m literally unable to hold in my excitement about Brandon Marshall’s fantasy day. I am sitting here quivering and whooped aloud twice while typing this.

Packers -9.5 over Browns, 24-13

-Look up what happened last year when the Packers were without their two best WRs…yeah, Rodgers did just fine. He’s, as Nate Ravitz this week on the Fantasy Focus Football called him, Aaron Flippin’ Rodgers. Against Brandon Weeden. And THERE'S Norv Turner. He was hiding on me for a minute. 

Chiefs -6.5 over Texans, 20-6

-Case Keenum anyone?

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Colts +7.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-I just…I don’t….leave me alone. I love Andrew Luck. Jim Irsay tackles Manning on the field. Reggie Wayne catches 17 balls. Unicorns.

Vikings +3.5 over Giant¸23-14

-JASSSSSHHHHH FREEMANNNNN everyone!

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-2
By Spread: 5-5

Record this year: 
Straight Up: 44-25
By Spread: 38-31

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 578-304
By Spread: 481-407

NFL 2012 Week 12 Predictions

Another good week, we are getting that record up. Short week, so these are out quickly. Enjoy everyone, Happy Thanksgiving.

Lions +3.5 over Texans, 21-20

-Lions are not good, but Texans are traveling on a holiday Thursday to Detroit after playing a killer overtime game in Houston on Sunday afternoon. Houston is better in a vacuum, but the vacuum isn’t pressurized on the Houston side for this one. Don’t know if they can overcome that.

Cowboys -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-20

-Washington is doing 3 days rest on the road, and the Cowboys have more a realistic shot at the playoffs and that starts to weigh on people’s minds. Dallas lights it up deep as the Washington secondary shows its stripes.

Pats -6 over Jets, 31-13

-The Gronk thing hurts for sure, but the return of Hernandez will help a lot and the Pats are rolling in every area. Typically the last few years the Pats play the Jets once tight and blow them out the other time. So, here is the blowout on national TV. Big game by Lloyd is somewhere in here, waiting to happen.

Colts -3 over Bills, 23-17

-Home game respect? I still don’t really get this line. Forget the NE game, the Colts are much better than the Bills. This is the matchup of the teams I projected to go 6^th and 7^th in the AFC: still wish I had flopped the prediction there.

Browns +3.5 over Steelers, 17-16

-Upset special. As much as an upset this can be with Charlie Batch and Plaxico Burress involved.

Bengals -7.5 over Raiders, 28-20

-AJ Green. AJ Green. AJ Green.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -4.5 over Vikings, 24-17

-Assuming Cutler plays, or I withdraw the guess. Either way, the Bears I think come up with a lot of spirit after whatever funkiness happened last week.

Not going to dignify Titans and Jags with a guess. This game should be televised in the home markets, on Redzone, or even for the parents of the quarterbacks. Ugh.

Falcons -1 over Bucs, 30-27

-Falcons win a shootout. They aren’t elite, but they are still good and find ways to win.

Seahawks -2.5 over Dolphins, 20-6

-Seattle will contain and crush the Dolphins. Tannehill has regressed, which is sad because I liked him.

Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs, 28-9

-Chiefs are just bad. No QB and no Bowe now, with Broncos rolling.

-Best Eliminator Pick  

Ravens -1.5 over Chargers, 21-19

-Ravens are just catching the Chargers while their soul has been stomped on. Ravens probably aren’t better but this is how it is going to go down. Waiting for that Ray Rice huge game, it is coming.

Saints +2.5 over 49ers, 31-23

-Alex Smith concussed is bad or Colin Kapernick in a more extended look gets exposed. Don’t look now, the Saints are playing MUCH better defense. Saints will light them up and I don’t trust the 49ers to keep up.

Cardinals +2.5 over Rams, 17-16

-Not getting off my Cards now. Ryan Lindley! Gonna be a thing! I even played this game out in Madden and won, and whatever I do with the Cardinals in Madden happens. I have friends that can attest to this.

Packers +3 over Giants, 30-28

-Packers are better right now than the Giants, even if the Giants are rested. I feel like the over is a good bet here.

Panthers +2.5 over Eagles, 20-19

-Just because the Eagles are terrible. The Panthers are less terrible. I mean, kind of.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 8-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 84-45

By Spread: 69-60

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 473-242
By Spread: 389-333

NFL 2012 Week 11 Predictions

Well, my results this week were .500 or better, so that’s something. Just such an ugly year. Going to get cuter this week. Normally when I tell someone that I am about to get cute with a game, I am about to throw an interception in Madden. So…here we go.

Cards +9.5 over Falcons, 20-27

-Falcons probably win, but Arizona is really highly ranked in pass defense. I think the Cards used the bye week to figure out a way to get some production from the pass offense, and they will be good enough to cover this.

Bengals -3.5 over Chiefs, 24-10

-Chiefs aren’t winning again this year. They are really bad.

Okay, you want more? Cassel or Quinn will be the QB. Romeo Crennel is still involved. They have two “over celebration” penalties last week on plays that didn’t technically happen because they were called back due to penalties. They have decided not to give their best player the ball, or at least, will only do so infrequently.

Browns +9.5 over Cowboys, 20-19

-Shiiish, don’t tell anyone! The Cleveland Browns are really tough on the lines, have good linebacking, and can run block decently well. 9.5 is a gift. It will only take a turnover fest to turn this from a cover into an upset. Not that like that likely to happen…oh wait. Everyone, the 2012 Dallas Cowboys!

Packers -3 over Lions, 31-27

-Packers just will score too much. Jordy Nelson being back healthy will make a big difference. Lions are decent, but they need to learn to play 4 quarters. Packers do that, despite their inadequacies.

Jags +15.5 over Texans, 13-27

-Texans will win convincingly but with another game in 4 days they let off the gas pedal and let Jacksonville cover this.

Rams -3.5 over Jets, 24-10

-I hate to copy Simmons, but….TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW. However, I have a different reason for this than the Sports Guy. I want to see Tebow, because I want to see it get even worse in NY.

Bucs -1.5 over Panthers, 31-27

-The Bucs are rounding into shape offensively, and only the fact that their pass defense is so bad makes this competitive. It will definitively be high scoring.

Saints -4.5 over Raiders, 31-17

-Like the Ravens game from last week, the Raiders are just bad and only garbage time makes this look prettier. Saints get to .500 and stay competitive for the playoffs. Image if they run off another a 3 in a row and the Falcons drop one or two between now and their next matchup.

Colts +9.5 over Patriots, 24-33

-I like the Patriots to keep doing consistently what they have been doing: winning by jumping out to huge leads and then letting their feet off the pedal enough to make it interesting. But rookie QBs just don’t win in Foxboro.

Chargers +8.5 over Broncos, 24-27

-Manning wins late, but Chargers cover. The fact that it got over 7 made this a no brainer.

Ravens -3.5 over Steelers, 27-13

-People who think that Ben’s injury doesn’t matter are CONFUSED. Leftwich’s throwing motion is longer and slower than my redraft columns.

Bears +4.5 over Niners, 21-20

-Perhaps the lesson in concussions is that the player should sit out whenever they have one, even if they pass the tests. However, we might not be able to tell, as the Bears defense was going to make Alex Smith look bad no matter if he was concussed or not. The Bears are my Superbowl pick, and I’m staying with it. And Alex Smith’s 70.5% completion percentage has REGRESSION written all over it.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 75-42

By Spread: 61-56

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 464-239
By Spread: 381-329