NFL 2012 Week 17 Predictions

Happy Holidays everyone, and congrats to those who now have fantasy titles, welcome to the club. And for those who finished in second or third (I have 1 and 3 of those finishes myself this year), congrats as well on strong seasons. Last regular season predictions, enjoy. 

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Nothing Changed there.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both shaky but it really seems they will be there in the end.

In Contention: Atlanta and Seattle. For different reasons, don’t know if they will be there in the end.

Wild Card:  Houston, despite what has happened to them lately. And the Giants. Just in case. Even if they are eliminated, I will probably list them here. Just to be safe. I don’t have residual issues at all.

The picks are going to be fast and quick, as many of these games don’t matter and will be hard to predict.

Week 17

-Bengals over Ravens is meaningless. I am going to guess a Baltimore win, as they kind of want the 3 seed.

Saints -5 over Panthers, 34-27

-Should be a high score here, but the Saints are hot enough to end the season with a win and return to equilibrium at .500.

Bears -3 over Lions, 27-19

-Simply a case of one team needing it and the other wanting a record. Stafford throws, oh, 48 times easily? By the way, Calvin isn’t actually getting a lot of garbage time yards, so I don’t know why people are fixating on that. What is more interesting is his propensity for getting tackled at the one yard line.

Steelers -7 over Browns, 23-6

-This pick has everything to do with how horrendous Cleveland is going to perform on offense. Thad Lewis? Ugh.

Packers -3.5 over Vikings, 37-20

-Peterson has a HUGE day but the Packers want that one seed.

Texans -3 over Colts, 19-10

-Colts are going to be the 5, and very well could see the Texans in two weeks AGAIN (I have a standing prediction with a friend that the Colts go into Baltimore and kill the Ravens if it schedules out that way). So the Texans kind of try to just technically seal up the situation and the Colts play really vanilla to not let anything get out about game plans.

TEN-JAX is also meaningless, and just should be an agreed-upon tie so that the game doesn’t have to take place. Wait, I have Justin Blackmon as a key player this week in a title game. PLAY ON!

Dolphins +10.5 over Pats, 23-24

-Something is telling me the Pats are going to punt this game to avoid Denver in the next round by purposely falling to the 4 seed. And in general, I just don’t trust teams like the Pats in the final game in situations like this. Bill will do whatever he thinks best. I’m just not going to bet on what that will be. If they try even a little they win this, but 10.5? No way.

Bills -4.5 over Jets, 21-12

-Bet on the team without a center, or the team without skill? I guess I’ll go with Buffalo. At least they are at home and have Spiller. Wait, Sanchez is playing? Okay, I’m definitively in.

Giants -7 over Eagles, 26-15

-One more chance for Vick to turn it over 4 times. Or, you know, catch fire and convince a team to make him their starter next year. (Please come to the Jets Vick. Please! I’m literally salivating).

ATL-TB is meaningless, no idea how long ATL starters play.

Cards +16.5 over 49ers, 13-26

-Always take over a two touchdown spread when a team A. Starts throwing to its best guy again and B. the opponent just got butt whooped. That duo of situations has gotta find a place in my manifesto somewhere…

Chiefs +16.5 over Broncos, 13-24

-Broncos probably win this easy, but then they start looking ahead and resting guys. NE will probably somehow be down 23-0 at this point while Brady is having a Mountain Dew on the sidelines as Ryan Mallett does his best Drew Bledsoe out there and Denver will get the hint. Plus, Jamaal Charles IS really good.

SD-OAK: I predict because neither team will be able to field a complete unit, they agree to take knees from halftime onward. And while watching from the sidelines, Ryan Mathews breaks another clavicle.

Rams +10.5 over Seahawks, 17-27

-Rams play the Hawks close, are better than most think, and this is another game where we have no idea what will matter at this point in time. If the Niners are up 24-0 on the Cards at half, Seattle may look to build the trade value of Matt Flynn.

Cowboys +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 29-27

-I’m taking the 3.5 because that is just too big a number in such a close contest, but I am taking Dallas for the win because the Cowboys have reverse suckered us in. they lost the game they really needed last week. Now, in Washington, against the wonderrook, we are all expecting them to choke. That is why I predict they will win.

This game, ladies and gentleman, is the holiday playoff gift to us all. Especially if it is Dallas who wins. Whoever they host, Chicago or Seattle most likely, just take in the Wild Card round, ignoring the line, and celebrate your victory as Romo or RGIII look so overwhelmed. I’m already excited.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 13-2

By Spread: 11-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 133-71

By Spread: 109-94

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 522-268
By Spread: 429-367

NFL 2012 Week 16 Predictions

Almost to the end. At least several teams showed us their true colors last week, in the form of total roll overs and give ups (I’m looking at you, Jags, Chiefs, Bucs, and Lions). Good on Arizona and Oakland for kind of trying. I would include the Ravens in the list of four teams above but they were actually trying so that’s scary.

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Just the most likely combination to make it right now, both are coming together well.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both showed quality last week. Both also showed enormous flaws.

In Contention: Atlanta and Houston. The “hey guy, we are here too!” tier. They lose to good teams, and beat up on bad ones. Guess what happens when they would play the four teams above them in this column in January?

Wild Card: New York Giants. I don’t want to talk about it. I don’t like them, I just won’t be turning my back on them ever.

Falcons -3.5 over Lions, 34-17

-Oh YEAH. Lions have packed it in. Coach getting fired number 1.

Dolphins -4 over Bills, 17-12

-One team is trying, one isn’t. Coach getting fired number 2.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Simmons said the Steelers are aggressively mediocre. Sounds about right. Bengals are better than people gave them credit for.

Colts -7 over Chiefs, 20-6

-I’d be insulted with a 7 point line if I were the Colts. Coach getting fired number 3.

Vikings +9.5 over Texans, 24-27

-Peterson.

Saints +1.5 over Cowboys, 29-27

-Cmon everyone. This is what the Cowboys do. They get us all excited, we are all looking forward to the matchup for the Cowboys next week versus Washington, and then they lose the preceding game. Brees is going to throw it 60 times no matter what. This clearly has to happen.

Patriots -14.5 over Jags, 41-14

-Pats angry. Chad Henne. Coach being fired number 4.

Panthers -9.5 over Raiders, 24-10

-Panthers trying to save Rivera’s job? I don’t know if that will work but they will blow out the hapless Raiders here. So, coach being fired number 5 and 6.

Chargers +3.5 over Jets, 14-12

-Chargers are being given 3.5, and that is the only reason I am taking this sorry excuse for a matchup. Coach being fired number 7 and 8.

Rams +3.5 over Bucs, 24-23

-I think the Bucs have given up. And I am starting Sam Bradford in a title game this week. So, just hoping really?

In all seriousness, full respect to what Fisher has done with this Rams team. It just feels different, they are respectable. I was the first to harp on how he underachieved with the Rams (as many seasons out of the playoffs than in, record near .500 lifetime), but being competitive each week and trying is worth a lot. Respect.

Packers -12.5 over Titans, 31-10

-I know the Packers haven’t blown anyone out, but it is coming, the Titans are not good (they should have killed the Jets), and now the Packers really need it. Jeff Saturday is being benched. Nice guy, but I think it was time and that will improve the pass protection for the Pack.

Browns +13.5 over Broncos, 24-27

-Something doesn’t feel right here. I don’t think the Broncos get tripped up, but they may be looking at the final two games at home as gimmes. I think the Chiefs game is, but the Browns are a tough team and this could be closer than it appears. Feels a little like Chiefs over the Packers in week 15 last year. And sadly, coach being fired number 9.

Bears -5.5 over Cards, 21-10

-Neither team is right, but the Cards are done. So, probably, is Coach Wiz. Coach being fired number 10.

Giants -1 over Ravens, 20-16

-The Trainwreck bowl, at least right now. I’ll take the NASCAR package over the unblinking Jim Caldwell.

Seahawks PK over Niners, 20-17

-Simply due to how hot the Seahawks are right now and the fact that SF had to travel on shorter rest than usual.  A great game, however, and hopefully terrible for their running backs for my fantasy purposes.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 12-4

By Spread: 9-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 120-69

By Spread: 98-91

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 509-266
By Spread: 418-364

NFL 2012 Week 15 Predictions

Okay, not a good week by me. I got a lot of the basics right, but the lines were all off for some reason. I am hoping with many playoff pictures clearing up, I will be able to hit a better percentage this week.

By the way, I am staying away from NYJ-TEN this week, mainly because I have no idea how that is going to go. However, the best part of that game is that because it is the MNF game, we all will know how our fantasy matchups ended up because NO ONE SHOULD BE PLAYING ANYONE FROM THAT GAME IN A SERIOUS MATCH.  

Bengals -4.5 over Eagles, 28-22

-One team needs it. One team is not only out but got its “crap we can’t go into the offseason on a 12 game losing streak so let’s just win ONE of these games” game out of the way. I am going to totally ignore this logic with Arizona later.

Ravens +3.5 over Broncos, 23-24

-Broncos are hot right now but these Ravens are still tough. Ravens could do the Pats a favor and pull the Broncos out of the 2-seed conversation, but I think it is more likely only a cover.

Packers -3 over Bears, 27-20

-My team is just going the WRONG way. Marshall continues his streak and has a big game here though.

Colts +9.5 over Texans, 24-30

-If this were in Indy, I’d pick the upset. The timing is just right. But it is in Houston, so the cover is the deal here. 9.5 points GIVEN to a 9-4 team. Um, disrespect much? You know what? Screw it. Colts +9.5 over Texans, 24-23. I’m going for it.

Jags +7.5 over Fins, 14-20

-The Dolphins lay 7.5 to no team.

Vikings +2.5 over Rams, 21-20

-One team has one dynamic player. There’s your difference.

Giants +1.5 over Falcons, 31-13

-Remember the playoffs? The Giants do, but I am pretty sure all the Falcons have spent some time trying to repress that memory.

Saints -3.5 over Bucs, 30-26

-A lot of points, Bucs are now falling off so the Saints win.

Browns +2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 22-20

-Assuming RG3 doesn’t play or plays rusty and slow. Browns are better than you think, and the Dog Pound should get up for this one. This is a nice young team learning how to win. Of course, you could say the same about Washington, but their rookie is injured.

Panthers +3.5 over Chargers, 21-20

-Cam is hot, and the Chargers still have Norv Turner.

Lions -6 over Cards, 31-3

-Cards are just bad. Brian Hoyer, fresh off the waiver wire, is clearly their best option at QB. Ugh.

Seahawks -5.5 over Bills, 24-13

-Bills weren’t good then lost a top three player on their team and their starting center. Seahawks D might be the most common “player” on championship teams this year.

Raiders -3 over Chiefs, 17-11

-Because at least the Raiders can score. Somewhat.

Cowboys +2 over Steelers, 20-19

-Because the Steelers still aren’t completely healthy and the Cowboys are inherently unpredictable.

Patriots -5 over 49ers, 30-20

-It would be hard to predict NE to beat two tough opponents in a row, but the games are at home, the Pats don’t lose there or in December, and they are clicking like crazy right now. Pats’ DVOA is somewhat ridiculous. Two quick points: 1. Brady took the three extra days after Thanksgiving to break down SF then since he knew he would need the extra time to study them. 2. The Pats, assuming Gronk is back and healthy for the playoffs, will have Lloyd Welker Gronk and Hernandez together for the 1^st time since Week 1. This could be the third highest scoring team EVER and have its best players healthy only once or twice all season long.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-6

By Spread: 4-10

Record this year:

Straight Up: 108-65

By Spread: 89-84

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 497-262
By Spread: 409-357

NFL 2012 Week 14 Predictions

Falcons -3.5 over Panthers, 34-10

-Best eliminator pick

Ravens +2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-20

Bears -2.5 over Vikings, 24-16

Bengals -2.5 over Cowboys, 31-27

Chiefs +6.5 over Browns, 17-19

Bucs -8.5 over Eagles, 20-10

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Chargers +6.5 over Steelers, 13-19

Rams +3.5 over Bills, 19-14

Colts -4.5 over Titans, 27-10

Dolphins +10.5 over 49ers, 10-20

Cards +10.5 over Seahawks, 12-22

Saints +4.5 over Giants, 27-31

Packers -6.5 over Lions, 31-23

Pats -3.5 over Texans, 28-23

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 7-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 100-59

By Spread: 85-74

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 489-256
By Spread: 405-347

NFL 2012 Week 13 Predictions

Ground out a nice 9-6 last week, time to focus on the stretch run. A lot of 4-6 point lines this week, some curious ones too.

Cardinals +4.5 over Jets, 21-10

-Jets are terrible. Cardinals are still a plus defense against the pass. 4.5 points?  Sure, sign me up. Let’s just ignore that the Cards don’t have an offensive line.

Panthers -3 over Chiefs, 27-14

-Ugh, Panthers aren’t good but this Chief team will be too busy asking for Cam’s autograph to win. Rivera>Crennel, um, I think?

Texans -6 over Titans, 31-10

-6 points? 6 points? I don’t understand. Titans fire their offensive coordinator and Jake Locker is still involved.

-Best eliminator pick

Colts +5.5 over Lions, 24-23

-Don’t bet against Chuck or Luck. New rules to live by. Lions have “on the edge of quitting” potential. At least the wide receivers will probably line up in the right places this week.

Jags +5.5 over Bills, 24-20

-I picked up Chad Henne in a long term keeper league today. I’m starting him in a major playoff matchup. I don’t even know what else to say about myself. In my defense, my other option was Phil Rivers.

Packers -9.5 over Vikings, 34-21

-Packers make some key adjustments for the offensive line and do just fine. Vikings are a nice team, but this is the part of the season where teams in it that need to win put the foot down.

Patriots -9 over Dolphins, 34-14

-Pats blowout the rookie quarterback. They’ve scored 10 points shy of 200 over the last 4 games. Have fun everyone.  

-Second best eliminator pick

Bears -3 over Seahawks, 21-13

-Those corners will be missed when Brandon Marshall goes off for 9-120-2. Bears roll over the Seahawks, who are untrustable right now.

Rams +8.5 over Niners, 20-21

-Tough divisional game between two plus defenses. 8.5 is just too much. Upset would not surprise me here.

Bucs +8.5 over Broncos, 27-24

-WAY too many points. Bucs are playing well here, and the Broncos will slip up at some point.

Bengals -1 over Chargers, 28-12

-Norv. All about Norv. Bengals are playing really well anyways.

Browns -1.5 over Raiders, 24-20

-Browns are simply a much better team. Tougher, stronger, and more talented. Cry Oakland, cry: Cleveland is better than you.

Ravens -3 over Steelers, 27-6

-With Batch in, any number of turnovers is possible.  And the Ravens will turn those turnovers into more points than Cleveland did.

Cowboys -9.5 over Eagles, 28-9

-No faith in the Cowboys but this Eagles team is DONE. Turn them over. Fire Reid now. Please.

Giants -9.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-20

-Washington is feisty, but these are the defending champs. Please, Giants roll. By the way, RGIII is great, but Luck is the rookie of the year. Records people, look at the records.

Good luck for everyone starting their fantasy playoffs/trying to get in on the last week. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-6

By Spread: 9-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 93-51

By Spread: 78-66

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 482-248
By Spread: 398-339

NFL 2012 Week 12 Predictions

Another good week, we are getting that record up. Short week, so these are out quickly. Enjoy everyone, Happy Thanksgiving.

Lions +3.5 over Texans, 21-20

-Lions are not good, but Texans are traveling on a holiday Thursday to Detroit after playing a killer overtime game in Houston on Sunday afternoon. Houston is better in a vacuum, but the vacuum isn’t pressurized on the Houston side for this one. Don’t know if they can overcome that.

Cowboys -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-20

-Washington is doing 3 days rest on the road, and the Cowboys have more a realistic shot at the playoffs and that starts to weigh on people’s minds. Dallas lights it up deep as the Washington secondary shows its stripes.

Pats -6 over Jets, 31-13

-The Gronk thing hurts for sure, but the return of Hernandez will help a lot and the Pats are rolling in every area. Typically the last few years the Pats play the Jets once tight and blow them out the other time. So, here is the blowout on national TV. Big game by Lloyd is somewhere in here, waiting to happen.

Colts -3 over Bills, 23-17

-Home game respect? I still don’t really get this line. Forget the NE game, the Colts are much better than the Bills. This is the matchup of the teams I projected to go 6^th and 7^th in the AFC: still wish I had flopped the prediction there.

Browns +3.5 over Steelers, 17-16

-Upset special. As much as an upset this can be with Charlie Batch and Plaxico Burress involved.

Bengals -7.5 over Raiders, 28-20

-AJ Green. AJ Green. AJ Green.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -4.5 over Vikings, 24-17

-Assuming Cutler plays, or I withdraw the guess. Either way, the Bears I think come up with a lot of spirit after whatever funkiness happened last week.

Not going to dignify Titans and Jags with a guess. This game should be televised in the home markets, on Redzone, or even for the parents of the quarterbacks. Ugh.

Falcons -1 over Bucs, 30-27

-Falcons win a shootout. They aren’t elite, but they are still good and find ways to win.

Seahawks -2.5 over Dolphins, 20-6

-Seattle will contain and crush the Dolphins. Tannehill has regressed, which is sad because I liked him.

Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs, 28-9

-Chiefs are just bad. No QB and no Bowe now, with Broncos rolling.

-Best Eliminator Pick  

Ravens -1.5 over Chargers, 21-19

-Ravens are just catching the Chargers while their soul has been stomped on. Ravens probably aren’t better but this is how it is going to go down. Waiting for that Ray Rice huge game, it is coming.

Saints +2.5 over 49ers, 31-23

-Alex Smith concussed is bad or Colin Kapernick in a more extended look gets exposed. Don’t look now, the Saints are playing MUCH better defense. Saints will light them up and I don’t trust the 49ers to keep up.

Cardinals +2.5 over Rams, 17-16

-Not getting off my Cards now. Ryan Lindley! Gonna be a thing! I even played this game out in Madden and won, and whatever I do with the Cardinals in Madden happens. I have friends that can attest to this.

Packers +3 over Giants, 30-28

-Packers are better right now than the Giants, even if the Giants are rested. I feel like the over is a good bet here.

Panthers +2.5 over Eagles, 20-19

-Just because the Eagles are terrible. The Panthers are less terrible. I mean, kind of.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 8-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 84-45

By Spread: 69-60

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 473-242
By Spread: 389-333

NFL 2012 Week 11 Predictions

Well, my results this week were .500 or better, so that’s something. Just such an ugly year. Going to get cuter this week. Normally when I tell someone that I am about to get cute with a game, I am about to throw an interception in Madden. So…here we go.

Cards +9.5 over Falcons, 20-27

-Falcons probably win, but Arizona is really highly ranked in pass defense. I think the Cards used the bye week to figure out a way to get some production from the pass offense, and they will be good enough to cover this.

Bengals -3.5 over Chiefs, 24-10

-Chiefs aren’t winning again this year. They are really bad.

Okay, you want more? Cassel or Quinn will be the QB. Romeo Crennel is still involved. They have two “over celebration” penalties last week on plays that didn’t technically happen because they were called back due to penalties. They have decided not to give their best player the ball, or at least, will only do so infrequently.

Browns +9.5 over Cowboys, 20-19

-Shiiish, don’t tell anyone! The Cleveland Browns are really tough on the lines, have good linebacking, and can run block decently well. 9.5 is a gift. It will only take a turnover fest to turn this from a cover into an upset. Not that like that likely to happen…oh wait. Everyone, the 2012 Dallas Cowboys!

Packers -3 over Lions, 31-27

-Packers just will score too much. Jordy Nelson being back healthy will make a big difference. Lions are decent, but they need to learn to play 4 quarters. Packers do that, despite their inadequacies.

Jags +15.5 over Texans, 13-27

-Texans will win convincingly but with another game in 4 days they let off the gas pedal and let Jacksonville cover this.

Rams -3.5 over Jets, 24-10

-I hate to copy Simmons, but….TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW. However, I have a different reason for this than the Sports Guy. I want to see Tebow, because I want to see it get even worse in NY.

Bucs -1.5 over Panthers, 31-27

-The Bucs are rounding into shape offensively, and only the fact that their pass defense is so bad makes this competitive. It will definitively be high scoring.

Saints -4.5 over Raiders, 31-17

-Like the Ravens game from last week, the Raiders are just bad and only garbage time makes this look prettier. Saints get to .500 and stay competitive for the playoffs. Image if they run off another a 3 in a row and the Falcons drop one or two between now and their next matchup.

Colts +9.5 over Patriots, 24-33

-I like the Patriots to keep doing consistently what they have been doing: winning by jumping out to huge leads and then letting their feet off the pedal enough to make it interesting. But rookie QBs just don’t win in Foxboro.

Chargers +8.5 over Broncos, 24-27

-Manning wins late, but Chargers cover. The fact that it got over 7 made this a no brainer.

Ravens -3.5 over Steelers, 27-13

-People who think that Ben’s injury doesn’t matter are CONFUSED. Leftwich’s throwing motion is longer and slower than my redraft columns.

Bears +4.5 over Niners, 21-20

-Perhaps the lesson in concussions is that the player should sit out whenever they have one, even if they pass the tests. However, we might not be able to tell, as the Bears defense was going to make Alex Smith look bad no matter if he was concussed or not. The Bears are my Superbowl pick, and I’m staying with it. And Alex Smith’s 70.5% completion percentage has REGRESSION written all over it.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 75-42

By Spread: 61-56

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 464-239
By Spread: 381-329