NFC North:
Packers: 13-3
Lions: 10-6
Bears: 8-8
Viks: 5-11
This is a strong division, but ultimately
boring because you can see now that the Packers are winning it going away and 2
of the other 3 teams could well be the wild card teams…..Packers are going
through a Patriots-like run of one QB being so dominant after winning a title,
but seemingly just short of returning to that full plateau. Still, an easy
12-13 wins is in store…..The Bears are a mystery. I wouldn’t be surprised at 12
wins or 4. I am middling it but that is also where they probably end up…..The
Vikings outperformed their point differential last year, the odds are against
Peterson coming near 2K (ever) again, and Christian Ponder is involved. They
actually had a negative DVOA (okay, it was -1.5%, but that is still negative!).
Detroit Spotlight: My Spotlight for this section was almost the Vikings, whose Pythagorean expectation of 8.8 was 1.2 below their actual win total. But I think people pretty much get how the Vikings could fail this year. I remembered that the Lions, despite being 4-12 actually had a positive DVOA and a Pythagorean expectation of 7.2 wins. Add that together with Lions’ pass receivers being stopped 23 times within the five yard line (Calvin was stopped 4 times within the 1…yeah that isn’t happening again), and I have my jumper.
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NFC East:
Giants: 10-6
Cowboys: 8-8
Ethnic Slurs: 7-9
Eagles: 6-10
This is by far the division about
which I have the least clue. All four teams were almost exactly on their
predicted finish last year by the DVOA and Pythagorean analysis, so no one is
due any major regressing or progressing toward a mean….The Giants just seem to
still have the biggest talent base, especially on the lines. Eli/Cruz/Nicks will
move them toward enough points to grind out these wins….Cowboys are the epitome
of a .500 team, in style, talent, luck, and terrible coaching. Dez will be a
beast but that doesn’t win all by itself…..Eagles are again relying on Michael
Vick, have a rookie coach whose style probably doesn’t translate to this league
fully, have already been beset by injuries, and have a porous run defense it
looks like.
Washington Spotlight: The Ethnic Slurs are one of my picks
to drop out of the playoff race. At this point it is likely RG3 is just fine,
but he doesn’t influence my pick. I don’t see a ton of talent other than him on
this team. The receivers are either ordinary or hurt, Alfred Morris can’t
possibly do THAT again, and the defense has some names that aren’t really
holders of equivalent value. Fletcher is declining more and more, Orakpo really
hasn’t been great since three years ago, and overall I don’t see them being a
double digit win team, especially with whatever RG3’s odds of reinjury are. Oh,
and they continue to have the most offensive name in professional sports, and
karma is a not a nice person.
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NFC South:
Saints: 11-5
Falcons: 9-7
Bucs: 7-9
Panthers: 7-9
The bottom half of the division should
approach .500 but does have potential. It will be easier to say what will hold
each team back than what will make them successful….The Falcons had only a 2.4%
DVOA and an estimated wins by Pythagorean method of 9.1, yet won 13 games. That
regresses in a big way, especially because the defense isn’t really special….The
Bucs are betting on Freeman progressing and Schiano not exploding and taking
the team with him. And Doug Martin to repeat last year, which he probably can’t…..The
Panthers still don’t have receivers other than Steve Smith, don’t know how to
use their excessive stable of backs, and their secondary is still going to be
ugly. That Beason/Johnson contract pairing is looking to be in the albatross
range now too.
New Orleans Spotlight: It feels strange to me that I have
to defend backing a Saints victory, but I think people are going to find me
crazy here. New Orleans had three coaches last year, played under amazing
scrutiny, ran into the buzzsaw of an Atlanta season that will probably prove to
be an outlier in terms of close wins, and still produced 7 wins. Brees and co.
are back with no real changes, and Payton will keep the ship righted. If a good
coach with solid end of game decisionmaking brain is added to what they had
last year (along with an improved defense), this is a double digit win team
easily.
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NFC West:
Seahawks: 11-5
49ers: 10-6
Rams: 9-7
Cards: 7-9
This is probably the best defensive division in the league,
and the best special teams division in the league…..Seattle may shatter the
record for non-offensive scores in a season. They are just solid on all levels,
and I believe in Russell Wilson not just because of the promise but because of
his mature age and experience in life. He was a rookie, but an old one because
of his time in baseball…..SF wins just about any other division, but not here.
Again a beast of a physical team, but one that is showing age a bit on defense,
and whose receiving core isn’t very good right now. Colin could regress which
makes me give the edge to Seattle…...Arizona could also be in the conversation
for non-offensive touchdown records with Peterson and Mathieu. Palmer is good
enough to turn one or two of those agonizing single digit losses into wins, and
Fitzgerald wills them forward in one or two more.
St.
Louis Spotlight: The Rams are a tough little team, and I like the offensive changes
they have made. Bradford produces when surrounded correctly, and I believe he
will progress a step forward this year from his underrated and solid 2012. The defense
is tough on all levels, Chris Long is a game changer, and the new receiving
core is actually really good despite the loss of Amendola. Givens may be a
star, and Bailey/Tavon is a solid underneath combination. Jeff Fisher is famous
for .500 long term results, one season in the playoffs and the next out. That
suggests a playoff berth or damn close this year.
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AFC North:
Bengals: 11-5
Ravens: 9-7
Browns: 8-8
Steelers: 6-10
A rough division that will probably
have a mediocre record mostly resulting from beating up on each other. All the
teams in this division have a toughness and strength in their lines, and should
produce very physical football…..The Bengals have the overall best team, filled
with a solid producers that happen to still be young and developing further.
This team in coming years should be a carbon copy of the Texans, provided they
get a running back…..The Ravens are champs, deserve respect, and that is the
only reason I am giving them 9-7….. I think the Steelers fall apart this year
under the injuries adding up already. Ben hasn’t been fully healthy in years,
the running game is a question mark, and the WR core, while solid, has no
downfield threats and should produce vanilla results.
Cleveland Spotlight: The Browns are my surprise, “going
to be over .500 versus the spread” team because of their solid base on the
lines, improved secondary, and a small kick in their offensive production due
to Norv. I love Joe Haden, a quieter and nearly equivalent Revis. They won 5
games last year, but their performance was actually more equivalent to 6.2 wins
and I think they creep ever higher this year.
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AFC East:
Pats: 12-4
Fins: 9-7
Bills: 5-11
Jets: 3-13
Probably the league's worst division
top to bottom….There are plenty of legitimate cases to be made about NE's
vulnerability, but they have a positively Spursian quality of holding in all
intact under extreme duress. As long as Brady is fine, they'll be fine…. Buffalo
has either Kolb or Manuel at QB, horrible receivers, and can’t cover WRs with
no fans in the seats and a new coach no one had heard of......I am literally
tingling with excitement concerning the Jet's season. An implosion, Chris Ivory
taking QB snaps, Rex Ryan quitting in the middle of a game, 3 butt fumbles in a
row, just so excited because anything is possible. Logistically, the defense is
older and sans Revis. Cromartie can't do this again by himself, and this has
"tragic ending" all over it.
Miami Spotlight: Fin's offense being so improved with
the defense already solid means a bump to .500 at least, as long as Tannehill
progresses. The loss of Keller does hurt, but they should be okay. The lines
are so solid, and the defense underrated and tough. Their depth is much
improved, and if nothing else the division will probably give them 4 wins by
default.
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Colts: 11-5
Texans: 10-6
Titans: 5-11
Jags: 4-12
This division is perhaps the simplest
to predict in that two of the teams are rather good and two of them should be
all accounts be quite horrid …..The Texans are in the land of very good but not
elite. This earns them 10 wins but another bounce in the first maybe second
round. I also believe there is a non zero chance that Foster doesn’t get to
full strength in time one of these years and the nagging injuries negatively
reflect in his year end production….Titans will always be limited by uninventive
offense sets, an overreliance on Chris Johnson, and the man known as Jake Locker
(who is basically a right handed Tim Tebow who can almost hit his target
instead of never hitting his target)…..Jags are just bad, without much of a
talent base and receiver who regrettably get hurt or get into fights with
teammates. And as I write this, Blaine Gabbert just got hurt again.
Indianapolis Spotlight: The Colts I believe will follow the
Packers’ path from 2000-2013. That is, excellence under a generationally excellent QB, then a quick transition to yet another one. Assuming the defense
becomes stronger, Luck develops as he should, Wayne continues the Donald Driver
role from the analogy and TY Hilton steps into the Greg Jennings one, the Colts
should own this division going forward for years. Now, to be honest, the
advanced stats don’t like me here. The Colts won 11 games but only earned 6.2
wins. They were exposed in the playoffs. But, I think natural growth gets them
back to 11 wins and a more legitimate playoff run. And I really really believe
in Luck.
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AFC West:
Chiefs: 10-6
Broncos: 8-8
Chargers: 4-12
Raiders: 3-13
I know, I know, I am going to get
flack for this one. This division is not good and should have two really bad
bottom dwellers….The Chiefs had 6 Pro Bowlers despite their record. The upgrade
at QB, LT, and coach, arguably the three most vital spots, along with better
health, luck, and some semblance of a plan or direction along with that great
home field makes me predict this as a change of power for the division….. Dr.
James Andrews couldn’t get through a Chargers’ practice without tearing his
knee up or something. I used to like Rivers but he is losing his fastball and
the team isn’t that good around him either…..The Raiders are going to be BAD. I
like Flynn, but this isn’t a good set up. The defense, “headlined” by 40 year
old Charles Woodson, is going to be a sieve. Not since the days of Art Shell was
I so excited to embrace the cause against a team succeeding.
Denver Spotlight: Okay, I’m already tearing people up
with this new Denver offense in Madden, so don’t think I don’t appreciate them.
And the defense is still solid even if they cannot defend deep floating throws
for some reason. But I am getting major “Vikings during Brett Favre’s second
year” vibes. Big year the season before, crushing loss in the playoffs, QB is
old and somehow got through a year despite major injury concerns, offense looks
unstoppable, then the bottom falls out when the QB shows their age. Already,
the Broncos are losing players to minor and major injuries, suspensions, and
then they lost their center which is a MAJOR injury that should send out red
flags. In that hit Manning took yesterday, I saw what could easily happen. I
wouldn’t be surprised to see them win 12 games. But I get the weird vibe
instead.
Playoff Predictions and Player Board Bets coming later this
week!
