Favorite Young PG

+3. Remember that number. It will be important later. Also remember 23-10-9.

Let’s talk about players A, B, C, and D first though. All are point guards. 

During Player A and C’s first two seasons, they averaged 16/21 points per game, and 18/22 respectively. They were playmakers in other senses, with just under and over 7 assists respectively in those seasons. They took a franchise in a non glamour city and made them relevant. They were cool, flashy, SMOOTH, and were the hope of the league. And, they were injury prone, undeniably. Player A was better from the field and Player C better from 3, but otherwise these two guys profile similarly. They are HIGHLIGHT players, dynamic in personality, and the name recognition is strong and lasting.

During Player B and D’s first two seasons, the point averages were more like 12/15 and 10/13. However, the assists were higher. Player B hit 7.5 and almost 10, and D just under and over 8. Both players showed a ridiculous tendency to turn the ball over…but also thieve it. These players are more complicated by the percentage splits, shooting in the late 30’s, barely forcing a 3 in per game. But both players are LEADERS on their teams. They don’t lead the team in scoring, but have the biggest presence. And man, sometimes it gets turned over, but their passes look GOOD. Players A and C put on the SHOW. Players B and D RUN the show.

It seems like all 4 will be successful, but different, players. Their careers should be exciting to watch. But as much as I have admiration for them, player D consistently jumps out as my favorite. He is my hope for Best Point Guard of the future. Player D is Ricky Rubio. Player C is Kyrie Irving.

I love Kyrie, I do. I pretty much scheduled a 4 day trip to Brooklyn to see the Cavs come play there. And he is a silky smooth scorer, no doubt about it. But this injury thing is starting to worry me. Sure, Rubio had his too, but it was a single freak occurrence in a 5 year professional career bereft of them. Kyrie missed time in college and his first two years with a litany of small ones, weird ones, and oddly broken bones. This is one reason I am buying more Rubio stock than Kyrie stock.

The other is Players A and B. Player A, so closely profiled to Kyrie, was Penny Hardaway in 93-95. He had such a similar beginning and fizzled out. Player B, who is so close to Rubio’s beginning? Jason Kidd, 94-96.

These comparisons are of course somewhat arbitrary and unfair. But I just see it all lined up too well. I see Rubio’s basketball IQ allowing him to work with some better teammates to get to the Finals 3-6 years from now. I can also see him slowly develop a better jump shot, and a set 3. He can totally follow that Jason Kidd path of being the 3^rd or 4^th best player on a contender later in his career as well. And funny enough, I can totally see it being on another team.

Like Penny, I think Kyrie will have too much on him, especially considering he is already injury prone. And I hope I am wrong, I hope he more mirrors Iverson (for longevity and sustained excellence, not attitude). That will be amazing to watch. But I don’t think I’m wrong. Maybe if Lebron comes to Cleveland and does the Wade thing all over again (lets the slashing guard take 25% less hits and get 25% more open shots) it will really push Kyrie in a better position, but I still see a player who will average 60 games a year instead of 80. And more importantly I think his prime is shorter than Rubio’s.

Rubio is already showing better than Jason’s curve in shooting. He is also going to the line more, earlier in his career and shooting close to 80% there. His turnovers are also a bit smaller at this point. His steals numbers are pretty on average with Kidd’s for steals, but they have spiked more lately. And that’s the funny thing. Rubio’s season averages this year are going to look pretty similar or actually worse than last year’s. It is a nice illusion (one I hope will get his draft ADP to drop next year for fantasy purposes). See, during the few weeks he was getting used to his new knee, he had quite a few 0-3, 4 assist kind of nights. But since February 1^st, Rubio has absolutely dominated, putting up a 13.5 / 5.4 / 8.6 line with 2.7 steals. Not only is this sustainable, he can better it easily.  

That brings me to last night. I was looking at two Rubio related numbers. The first was +3. That is what the Wolves got in terms of points versus Memphis. A bad team minus its All Star in Kevin Love is only getting 3 points versus one of the best teams in the West, a team which has a top defense and will probably host the first round of the playoffs. I don’t know if that is respect, the sharps and bookmakers actually following how competitive the Wolves currently are, or Memphis’s run of back to backs, but it is still a tiny line.

After all, the Wolves this month lost to the Lakers by 3 and CHI by 7. They beat OKC by 8, DET by 13, PHO by 31, SA by 24, and WAS by 5. Without Love, frequently without Kirilenko and Pekovic, Rubio is making the Boston Steamer and Dante Cunningham semi efficient scorers right now. Bill Simmons should get credit for this point: “Rubio is making Derrick Williams look like a professional basketball player”. Yup, that’s actually all I really needed to write.

The second numbers I was looking at were 23-10-9. That is what Ricky threw up in said game versus tough Memphis last night. They lost, but he was brilliant. And he was 10 of 12 from the line. Yeah, I’m hoping on this train. And guess what? David Kahn may have been right in saving the 5 year deal for Rubio and not giving it to Love.

And one final thing? Rubio reminds me a lot of Rondo too. Rondo is better, has been better. But now I am convinced Rubio will be the superior player long term. It is all there in the numbers. And, in the way he holds himself. This guys lives and breathes high IQ and exciting basketball. Here’s hoping for 15 years of it.

And I will allow myself one excessive Rubio call.

Rubio! Rubio! Ru-be-OOOOOOH!

2013 MLB Board Bets: Bliss vs. Orsi Round 4

Bliss: Since everyone is clamoring for a column, we should do this.

Orsi: No one is clamoring.

Bliss: Sure they are. Listen, there’s the clamor.

Orsi: Mike, we are extremely wrong all the time anyways.

Bliss: Hey! We both had the Giants in the WS last year!

Orsi: We also had the Marlins and Phillies succeeding, David Wright getting traded, and you even had Adrian Gonzalez as MVP.

Bliss: Okay, that happened....let’s just get past it. Time for Board Bets round 4! I lost a heartbreaking tilt versus the young Cuz from last year 10-7. We tied on many predictions, including where we had the Tigers. We both completely missed the A’s and Orioles. We did have the Giants in the WS, with Matt nailing them winning. I may or may not have supported Brett Lawrie for a 25-25 season (lost that) and I didn’t support Ryan Braun to go 30-30 (which he only got by one SB). I’ll get the next one Matt.

Orsi: You literally put words into my mouth.

Divisions

AL East: Rays for both

AL Central: Tigers for both

AL West: Angels for both

NL East: Nats for both

Orsi - I have an unhealthy amount of manlove for this team, so much so that I just typed manlove.

Bliss - And even made it one word.

NL Central: Reds for both

NL West: (finally, we disagree!)

Bliss - Giants

Orsi - Dodgers (you don’t spend that much money to lose)

AL Wild Cards:

Bliss - White Sox, Blue Jays

Orsi - Blue Jays, Rangers

NL Wild Cards:

Bliss - Pirates, Dodgers

Orsi -  Cardinals, Giants

ALCS:

Bliss - Rays over Tigers

Orsi - Tigers over Angels

NLCS:

Bliss - Reds over Nats

Orsi -  Nats over Reds

World Series:

Bliss - Rays over Reds

Orsi - Nats over Tigers

Leaders:

Home Runs:

Bliss - Jay Bruce

Orsi - Jose Bautista

Steals:

Bliss - Jose Reyes

Orsi - Emilio Bonifacio

RBIs:

Bliss - Jose Bautista

Orsi - Miguel Cabrera

Average:

Bliss - Buster Posey

Orsi - Joey Votto

OPS:

Bliss - Joey Votto

Orsi - Miguel Cabrera

Wins:

Bliss - Mark Buehrle

Orsi - Jered Weaver

Strikeouts:

Bliss - Kershaw

Orsi - Yu Darvish

Winners:

AL Cy Young:

Bliss - Chris Sale (nasty, dirty, amazing stuff)

Orsi - Justin Verlander (ummm he’s still filthy good)

NL Cy Young:

Bliss - Madison Bumgarner

Orsi - Clayton Kershaw

AL MVP:

Bliss - Evan Longoria (so close to taking Jose Bautista, but the wrist scares me)

Orsi - Miguel Cabrera (just give the man his due)

NL MVP:

Bliss - Joey Votto (I love everything about him. He was awesome, then he lost power so he learned to hit better. Now he has the power back too).

Orsi - Justin Upton (so much for no predictability, Mike ^)

Bliss - You picked Verlander for Cy Young. And Kershaw actually. Want an outside the box pick? Paul Goldschmidt.

AL ROY:

Bliss - Wil Myers (Hicks will play all year but Myers will be on a good team with protection)

Orsi - Jurickson Profar

NL ROY:

Bliss - Oscar Tavares (if he gets up in time to accrue counting stats. Splits will be awesome)

Orsi - Travis D’Arnaud (he is going to get an opportunity, at least)

AL Manager of the Year:

Bliss - Terry Francona, CLE (No other obvious candidates, and they will improve)

Orsi - Joe Girardi, NYY (if this team does anything without the stars)

NL Manager of the Year:

Bliss - Clint Hurdle, PIT

Orsi - Davey Johnson, WAS

Random Bets:

Worst Team in AL East:

Bliss - Red Sox (Yanks in 4th)

Orsi - Can I plead the 5th?

Bliss - Nice. I see what you did there.

Worst Team in the AL:

Bliss - Twins

Orsi - Astros (different league, same terrible team)

Worst Team in the NL:

Bliss - Cubs (bottoming out)  

Orsi - Marlins (I own your team hat, Mr. Loria. You let me down)

How many no hitters this year?:

Bliss - 4

Orsi - 3

Mike Trout MVP position under over 2.5:

Bliss - over

Orsi - under

Total Upton HRs under over 55:

Bliss - under

Orsi - over

Best Giants pitcher (player rater):

Bliss - Bumgarner

Orsi -  Cain

Greinke starts under over 27:

Bliss - Under

Orsi - Over

Total Granderson/Texeira/ARod/Jeter HRs:

Bliss - 65

Orsi - 55

Red Sox pitchers with 14 wins:

Bliss - 0

Orsi - 1

John Lackey ERA:

Bliss - 4.68

Orsi - 4.75

Best offense (runs scored):

Bliss - Reds

Orsi - Angels

Best defense (runs prevented):

Bliss - Tribe

Orsi - Rays

Best staff ERA:

Bliss - Giants

Orsi - Braves

Scott Kazmir starts:

Bliss - 13 (seems unlucky to ever pick a number)

Orsi - Too many (no seriously, this is my answer)

Most Angel’s HRs:

Bliss - Trumbo

Orsi - Hamilton

Best rookie starting pitcher (player rater):

Bliss - Julio Teheran

Orsi - Dylan Bundy

Earliest Callup:

Bliss - Travis D’Arnaud

Orsi - Jedd Gyorko

WAR Leader, pitcher:

Bliss - David Price

Orsi - Justin Verlander

WAR Leader, hitter:

Bliss - Joey Votto

Orsi - Robinson Cano

Bliss: Seems like a good place to end. WAR is the most important stat after all. Good luck Cuz. We’ll tally it up next year.

The Most Successful Franchise in Sports Is...

I have wanted to write a column on my favorite franchise in sports for a long while now. I consider them the best team, the most accomplished, the one I respect, the one I would love to be responsible for. Their unparalleled success over the last 15 years (coincidentally my sports watching life) is something to behold. They have won a handful of titles and were close to several more.

I look at things in roughly three ways in terms of value in my favorite sports team: titles, sustained competitiveness, and statistical excellence. Markets, superstars, flashy play, Sportscenter ratings....these things don’t really matter to me like they do to many sports fans in this country. To me, in terms of rings, longevity, and sabermetric excellence, the supreme franchise is clear.....

The New England Spurs.  

Er, the San Antonio Patriots?

See, I get confused with these two teams. I mean, what’s the difference? Okay, one plays in the West, one in the East. One has 13 players on the team, the other 53. One team’s owner is well known, for the other the GM is much better known comparatively. Oh yeah, one plays basketball and the other team plays football.

But see, the fact of the matter is it is hard to draw a distinguishable line between the New England Patriots and San Antonio Spurs (got it right that time, nice). They look nearly identical to me.

Look at it this way: The Patriots system is said to be based on these principles (see article at end for source):

a. Self critical, perfectionist, militaristic approach

b. Emphasis on team, equality among players, and lack of individual ego

c. Strong work ethic, intelligence, and high level of focus and preparation for each individual game

d. Versatile players, able to play multiple positions

e. Multiple schemes intended to take advantage of their opponent’s weaknesses

Um, sound familiar San Antonio?

Let’s break it down in depth:

1. Both teams hired a somewhat misanthropic, angry, sarcastic, caustic, but brilliant coach in the late 90’s/early 00’s. Popovich and Belichick are similar in so many aspects it is scary. Both have names constantly misspelled. Both have been simultaneous coach/GMs. Both have family connections to military traditions that clearly influence their style and bearing. Bill and Pop both avoid media obligations like the plague, but in the time they are forced to give interviews, they can give some gems, many times without really trying. Both coaches are known for being defensive wizards that now lead offensive teams. More on that later.

2. Neither team location is a big market, but they are within one. Foxboro is not even close to what you would call a metropolitan center. Without the Pats, one would be hard pressed to find it on a map. I know, I grew up near there. But in the larger context, NE is one of the nation’s biggest sports nations. It has a unique attitude, a vast regional service network, and sports history both long term and lately. Similarly, San Antonio is not exactly a large market. But they love their Spurs, and the larger Texas area has a dozen well attended teams and regional pride. They likewise support success, and the state of Texas has 7 of the last 18 NBA titles, and many more conference titles and appearances. Speaking of that kind of success…

3. Both teams have won multiple titles, with the Pats’ titles being a little more concentrated than the Spurs, but the Spurs having more (‘02, ‘04, ‘05 for the Pats, ‘99, ‘03, ‘05, ‘07 for the Spurs). Both have been in the title game or the conference title game on many more occasions. And both teams started their run with a solo title with an unusual circumstance in the year leading up to it (lockout for the Spurs, 9-11 and Brady’s random emergence for the Pats) and then after a few more years ran off a truly dominant period before settling into where they are now. More on that at the end.

4. Both teams are riding impressive longevity streaks. The Spurs run of winning 50+ games is legendary (13 straight now, one of those was within a 66 game season, and it would be 15 if not for a 50 total game season where they were above the percentage needed for 50+ wins in a normal season). The Pats’ run of 10+ win seasons (10 and counting, 11 of the last 12, including a year Tom Brady didn’t play) is also fairly unworldly. They have had 12+ wins in 7 of the last 10, which is mind boggling. The teams’ winning percentage during the era of Duncan/Brady are .695 and .777 respectively. That makes Duncan the third highest winner active in the NBA. Number 1 and 2? Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, his teammates. Brady’s ridiculous .777 is 25 points higher than Staubach and 66 points higher than Montana, and Brady has far lapped them in total regular season wins. I mean, the guy directly ahead of Brady in career wins, Marino, has 93 losses. The guy behind Brady in wins, Tarkenton, has 109 losses. Brady, with roughly the same amount of wins (124), has only 39 losses. That’s insane. 39 losses…in 12 years. I have no words.

Speaking of Duncan and Brady…

5. Both teams have an unassuming superstar, though in different ways. Duncan was a first overall pick, but doesn’t act much like it. He is quiet, and no one seems him as a standout. But he is a top 10 player all time, one of the best winners ever, and probably the best player ever at his position (depending on what you call his position that is). His offensive efficiency is amazing to watch, especially statistically. We’ll get to stats later with the Spurs and Pats.

Brady himself is unassuming in that he was a 6th round pick. 200 people were thought to be better than him, and he was 4th on the Pats depth chart at his position for a year and a half. It took an injury to get him even on the field. Rather like it took David Robinson’s foot injury to give the Spurs the requisite pingpong balls to get Duncan. Is there some similarity in Bledsoe and Robinson needing the new guys to come in to give them a chance to get them a ring? I know Robinson still played WITH Duncan while Brady replaced Bledsoe, but the comparison and sequence of events still works.

Both guys also overcame being thought of as system guys, attributing their first major wins to someone else (Robinson/lockout, Pats defense/tuck rule). While both arguments have merit, clearly these guys were big parts of those wins and the start to the teams’ prolonged success.

Tim and Tom have some funny comparable quirks too, the names for one. Forgetting even the one letter difference, both never go by their full names, Timothy and Thomas. Funny enough, both have teammates call them by something else entirely, Timmy and Tommy. They wear flipped numbers, 21 and 12. I could go on and use the word "fundamental", but I won’t.

6. Part of the reason I enjoy following both the Spurs and Pats is that they have a talent with money, and free agents. I would immediately hire either to run my personal finances. They are brilliant, principled, and great talent evaluators. You don’t hear about their cap problems, and if anything you consistently hear about their stars taking less money to stay and allow the team to be competitive. Duncan and Brady both did it recently. They make so few mistakes with contracts (Richard Jefferson and Roosevelt Covlin are probably the biggest, and the teams got out of both of those). They pay their handful of stars, never pay people over 30, and pull random people off of the scrap heap who do a specific thing well (Danny Green, Danny Woodhead, Tiago Splitter, Sebastian Volmer, Matt Bonner, Teddy Bruschi) and pay them little to nothing to do it. And guys that leave for “greener pastures” (Deion Branch, Stephen Jackson), end up coming back, begging to be let back in. Both teams also took players whose talent was undeniable, but whose chemistry just didn’t fit and with whom the financial picture wasn’t right, and sent them packing (Luis Scola, Richard Seymour). It is amazing as well how both teams just plug and play so many guys for single nights or weeks at a time. Need Gary Neal to hit 3s for a week? Go for it. Donte Stallworth needed for a 60 yard touchdown? Do it. Parker/Brady hurt? George Hill and Matt Cassel can do a veritable imitation.

7. There is a similarity between the teams in that both the Spurs and Pats transitioned. Both won titles with defensive first. This included some rough tactics at time. Both employed players not many other teams particularly liked, like Rodney Harrison, and Bruce Bowen as examples. The Spurs embraced the Hack-A-Shaq, didn’t mind grinding it out, fouling before an inbounds pass, and finding any edge to win. Likewise to the rule changes in the NBA following the Spurs reign, the Pats also incurred the attention of the league office. They held and slammed their way to 3 titles in 4 years. A particularly tough playoff game versus the Colts where Pats’ DBs held Harrison and Wayne so badly they weren’t moving 3 seconds into the play caused the NFL to change those rules. Both teams took advantage of their defensive eras and abilities, and won titles out of it, unapologetically. There was also that Spygate thing. I mean, things happen, right?

8. Both teams also saw a new era dawning. For the Pats, it was the changing defense rules mixed with Brady’s knee injury in 2008. For the Spurs, Bowen’s retirement and Duncan’s own knee issues gave them two straight early round losses in the playoffs.

Instead of accepting the changes quietly and giving up on the hope of future successes, they innovated. Pop and Bill observed the evolving rules and culture and changed their rosters accordingly. Duncan gave way to Ginobili and Parker, taking advantage of the handcheck rules and fouling principles. Instead of winning with physicality, Pop recentered his offense AND defense on the principles of ball movement and precision. This team went from winning with David Robinson and Rasho Nesterovich at center to playing Matt Bonner and Boris Diaw there.

Brady remained the Pats centerpiece, but first Moss and then Welker became their way to exploit the new league. Ginobili and Moss were these teams’ way of being successful in the 06-09 years. They used a unique player with a strange style that was devastatingly effective. Welker and Parker show how now in big tough sports the Spurs and Pats are acknowledging that little fast guys with precision play are the valuable and exploitable commodity. And both teams have another guy coming up (Leonard and Gronk) that they think will be the next unstoppable thing, an evolution of multiple abilities. And I think it will work out for both teams there, with Gronk already pretty much having proven it.

9. The original thing that inspired this column was their efficiency and advanced metrics. I love their offenses just a little too much. I stare at FootballOutsiders for hours on end. I marveled at all the advanced metrics of the 2011-2012 Spurs during their second half run and first ten games of the playoffs.

The ’12 Pats finished at 30.8% DVOA offensive efficiency last year. The next highest were Denver and Green Bay, at 22.1% and 19.5%. It wasn’t close. In fact, the 2012 Pats had one of top ten ever recorded. The top two ever? The ’07 Pats at 43.5% and ’10 Pats with 42.2%. Both were record setting seasons by regular stats too if that is more your thing, setting the overall points record with 589. 

The Spurs rock the plus/minus and assist rates, but it is really their 3 point shooting which is amazing. They don’t have rock stars shooting the three (Danny Green everyone!), but make it work. In ‘11-’12, they lapped the field in 3s (552 to next highest 524 and 514) and 3% (.393 to next nearest .359 and .358). They also led in total buckets, strangely a stat not enough people look at, especially impressive while leading the league in overall shooting percentage (.478). That’s while being near the league stragglers in minutes played (IE, among the fewest overtimes thus less opportunities to score). Oh, and they were third lowest in turnovers. The efficiency is off the charts.

You can go back years to find more and more examples, but these numbers, especially lately, make the analytical part of my brain whirl. These teams are machines, just ruthless automatons that many people hate to watch. I have always been fascinated, and cannot look away. Both teams epitomize the concept of PRODUCTION.

10. Point ten, my final one, is the most interesting but most disturbing similarity to me. Both teams have produced better and better regular seasons, but worse post seasons as time has gone on. It may be due to talent disparity, the offensive style not working as well as the defensive one in the playoffs, the coaches and stars getting older, or just luck. However, these two teams, as successful as they are, are getting knocked out in the second or third rounds and not winning titles. I am inclined to say at least one of these teams will win another title (with the Pats window a hair longer than the Spurs, but the Spurs being a better lock THIS year) before they are done. I would put the over under of combined conference title appearances from here on out for the Spurs and Pats at 2.5 and gladly pound the over.

So despite these teams I love coming to the end of their eras sooner rather than later, I will still watch with hope and support. They are impressive. We should cherish and respect their accomplishments, even if you don’t like them (and believe me, I hated the Spurs for a long time). We will look back on them as impactful teams of this era. And Brady/Duncan are too close to 1 more title that firmly plants them in immortality to let up now. I am not betting against Duncan, Brady, Pop, or Bill for as long as they continue to walk onto their respective fields of contest. No way, I’m not dumb. They’ve only been proving people wrong for a combined 30 years.

MIKE BLISS

PS. For more reading, I highly suggest these two sites on these two teams’ strategy and style:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_Patriots_strategy

http://hoops-nation.com/community/topic/62910-an-introduction-to-the-spur%E2%80%99s-offence/

NFL 2012 Week 21 Prediction: Super Bowl Sunday

Here we go, Super Bowl weekend approaching. Neither team I thought would be here is here. Somehow I covered both games last week again despite getting the winners wrong. I continue to ponder whether I have the wrong priorities and viewpoint in life.

Ravens +4.5 over 49ers, 27-24

The brothers’ storyline is simply awesome, and only grows as I think more and more about it. And the more and more I think about it, the more and more I am confident the Ravens are going to win. Strangely (because they are fairly similar in style and image projection to the media and public), I have always really liked John and not liked Jim. Jim says things that don’t entirely make sense, benches a QB mid season that is completing 70% of his passes, and continues to feature "I drop easy passes" Vernon Davis on offense. That team seems to be centered around him in the media, even as Kaepernick rises in name value. Willis is a much better than Ray Lewis now and pretty close to where Ray was in his prime, but has none of the external flame and notoriety Ray has.

John has run a great program for a half decade now, much longer than Jim has been in the league. His Raven’s team has continually been successful, going to playoffs and winning a game each year. They have won back to back division titles, no matter how it happened. And truth be told, SF overachieved last year in getting to the NFC title game while BAL deserved to go to the Super Bowl. And looking back clearly and analytically, I think Baltimore beats the Giants last year if they were in the Super Bowl instead of the Pats.

Matched up now, here is what I see: I see a pair of quarterbacks with completely different set ups. Flacco has been around and winning for 5 years. Kaep has been around for about 5 minutes. His career starts can fit on two hands. His total plays in the NFL from starts and sub packages even including preseason work don’t get to a full season’s worth of work. I trust Flacco in big games now, especially with the mix of talent, youth, and experience around him on offense at the skill positions. Kaep is working with Randy Moss, Kyle Williams, and Michael Crabtree which still doesn’t get me excited.

On defense, the 49ers are stout. However, they will get burned on deep routes by these WRs, especially if the Justin Smith injury continues to affect his ability to generate and facilitate pass rush. Baltimore will push that issue and should be able to get a lot of work down the field to Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. I expect a 6 for 95 game for each of them. And on the other side, I see Ed Reed prowling around and picking SF at least once. He has had a decently quiet post season and that cannot last. I would not be surprised to see him return one on SF and be a game changer.

SF’s advantages are in running the football and stopping the run, and they should do both well. I see Frank Gore getting around 100 yards and LaMichael James getting 50 total yards and making some meaningful plays. But I really think other advantages, such as the Ravens special teams which graded out as by far the best in the league in the regular season, will spur a Ravens win. Justin Tucker has been awesome; David Akers is a wounded animal meekly crying in the corner. Jacoby Jones is itching for his chance at a big return. Ginn is waiting to get injured and give Kyle Williams another chance to drop some punts. The 49ers do have the best punter in the game (and statistically, one of the best ever in history) in Andy Lee, but I don’t think that will be of much impact here to sway my decision.

One final thing: these two teams played on Thanksgiving last year. Both teams are very different than they are now, especially SF because of the QB change. But I would use it as a template for the family battle. And I walked away from that game impressed with John’s win. I think that is what happens here again. Sometimes older brothers just know what the younger one will do in certain situations (I know from experience). I wish I had their Madden records, I feel like it would be telling.

One last note: I have never felt better about my prediction for teams' scores in a game. Either team can win this and I wouldn't be surprised if the 49ers do. But it will be 27-24, 28-23, 27-23, or 28-24. It just has that feel all the way around. 

Good luck everyone. Enjoy the party. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 0-2

By Spread: 2-0

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-82

By Spread: 117-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 533-279
By Spread: 442-376

NFL 2012 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Weekend

I went 1-3 heads up and 3-1 against the spread last week. Read that again, and tell me it doesn’t mean I have a real problem in how I am starting to see things. That doesn’t even make sense. I’ll take it, but still. Jeez.

Only two games this week, and only 3 left in the season. Both should be good though, and nicely feature opposing styles of play. For things looking toward the future, right now the AFC is -2.5 over the NFC in the Superbowl. Just saying. Speculating, you could say. 

NFC Title Game – Falcons +5.5 over Niners, 24-22

-The Niners are probably better. I’ll admit that I’m mostly doing this for the points, because in a hotly contested NFC title game, 5.5 is just too much to ignore. But Atlanta does have quite a few things going for them. SF has to travel East, Atlanta is so good at home, and the Niners do have a QB that has fewer than 10 starts EVER going against a solid vet off his breakthrough playoff win. Matt Ryan is actually in a very similar place to where Peyton was in 2006, when he finally advanced to the Superbowl.

The Seahawks nearly beat the Falcons, and I fully believe Seattle is better than SF (as evidenced by the beatdown served by the ‘Hawks a few weeks ago). So yeah, I’m rolling with Atlanta here. And the biggest reasons why are: A. Justin Smith still isn’t healthy and B. Seattle could cover Roddy and Julio for the most part and still couldn’t win, but SF won’t even come close. Gonzalez is neutralized, but the receivers won’t be and Atlanta (gulp) goes to the Superbowl.

AFC Title Game – Ravens +9.5 over Pats, 27-31

-Calm down, all my NE friends. It is just a cover. These teams play it way too close most times to lay 9.5 with any confidence. The Patriots are by far the healthier team (they are missing Gronk sure, but I think that Ravens missing Webb and having Yanda, Lewis, Suggs, and Ellerbe slowed by injuries are in worse shape). The Pats are at home having played one game versus a non physical foe. The Ravens haven’t had a break, and played two playoffs games to get here including a double OT freezing cold game in Denver then flying to Foxboro. Much respect to the Ravens, and I am giving them a cover here, but I just don’t see Brady losing this game.

It is simple. The Pats beat the Ravens (barely) last year in the playoffs. The Pats are better now (because of Talib, Hightower, Chandler Jones, and Dennard). The Ravens are about the same, I guess, just minus Webb and Ray Rice 2012 seems about 95% of Ray Rice 2011. The Ravens beat NE (barely) 4 months ago but we are a better team now due to experience for the younger players, while the Ravens have been on a downward turn. And remember, Brady, the winningest QB in playoff history, at home, where he is dominant. Yup, close win but Ravens cover. And no one is allowed to say “Bernard Karmell Pollard”.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-3

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-80

By Spread: 115-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 533-277
By Spread: 440-376

NFL 2012 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

And there goes my annual quest to go 11-0 in the playoffs. Some day, maybe.

The Divisional Round is always my favorite. We get to see 8 great, non pretender teams square off almost every year without fail. While the Conference Title Game weekend produces better matchups, there are only two games to watch. This weekend, we still get the full slate of four games. And occasionally in the Divisional round, we get to see some juggernaught tripped up by just a little too much rest and relaxation or even a false sense of security. 

Week 19: Divisional Playoffs

Ravens +10.5 over Broncos, 22-28
-As much as I would love it, I just cannot predict the upset. Too much would have to go right for the Ravens and wrong for the Broncos. If Webb was healthy, that would make a huge difference. But, I do think that the Ravens put up a good fight and are able to keep it close. Ray Rice should be ready to go off after his miscues last week. Maybe the Broncos get rusty/lethargic/lulled into a false sense of security after their 10 game winning streak, but I just don’t think so. Von Miller could have a big day here, and I know Demaryius Thomas does.

Packers +3.5 over Niners, 31-22
-I know, I know, this result flipped the other way in week 1 of the regular season. Guess what? THAT WAS 19 WEEKS/5 MONTHS AGO. These are totally different teams. Randall Cobb has been unleashed, Cedric Benson/Alex Green/Jeff Saturday aren’t involved, and the Packers now know not to force the ball to Finley (well, kinda). The Niners are also a very different team, with a different quarterback, an emerged Michael Crabtree, and a concussed Vernon Davis. However, the biggest difference is the injured Justin Smith. He means so much to that team from a leadership standpoint and a schematic standpoint that his injury by itself makes me flip my prediction for this game. Ironically, the SF-NE game that I attended sold me that A. SF was the best team in the league and B. It immediately dropped from being that because of Justin Smith’s injury. He enables clean tackles for Patrick Willis and Bowman, and more importantly allows Aldon Smith to tee off on the quarterback through holds, stunts, and twists. Finally, Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs versus Colin K? Yeah, sign me up for about a 10 point Pack win.

Seahawks +3 over Falcons, 24-18

-By the way, the Falcons get to 18 by a touchdown, 3 field goals, and 1 safety. It seems right that they would get a safety, since that is all they got last year in the playoffs. I don’t believe in the Falcons in the post season. Not one bit. There is a limited but significant track record at this point saying that they are not an elite level team. The truth is, even if they had gone 3-5 in the playoffs under Matt Ryan so far instead of being winless, I’d still pick Seattle. Their team is just set up so well to win. Atlanta can really only throw the ball at an elite level. And Seattle is perhaps the only team that can take both Roddy and Julio out with their elite corners. Lynch is going to eat that defense up. Seattle wins outright, and while it won’t be Alabama – Notre Dame, I think the ‘Hawks show clear physical dominance over the Falcons.

Pats -9.5 over Texans, 34-17

-I watched that Bengals-Texans game and cheered. Not because the Texans won, no; I wanted the Bengals to win. But I cheered because the Texans won having 7 sustained drives but scored only 1 touchdown and 4 field goals. They do anything similar versus NE, show any of that pathetic level of aggression, and they will lose badly to the Pats in Foxboro. Second, we just saw this game a month ago, same place, same teams. The Pats won easily, and while they had some weird fluke good luck plays, those are counteracted by the fact that they will now get Gronk back. Third, Tom Brady in the playoffs, 16-6 all time. With one more win, he passes Montana for most all time. They aren’t losing this game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 143-77

By Spread: 112-102

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 532-274
By Spread: 437-375

NFL 2012 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Time for the annual quest to go 11-0 in the playoff picks. Good luck everyone.

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Nothing changed there.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both shaky but it really seems they will be there in the end.

In Contention: Atlanta and Seattle. For different reasons, don’t know if they will be there in the end.

Week 18: Wild Card Weekend

Bengals +4.5 over Houston, 23-19

-Calling the pure upset. Houston is in free fall, its star RB looks worn out and may have a heart problem, and its QB is playing horribly right now. It wouldn’t surprise me if I found out that Matt Schaub was hiding a major arm injury, because he clearly isn’t the same guy. AJ Green is going to torch the Texans. I trust in him as a top 5 game changer at his position. Like Calvin, AJ can bust a game open even if the QB isn't on. But Geno Atkins especially makes me scared to go against the Bengals here. I think he dominates as he has done all season. Finally this is revenge for the Bengals. They still feel like they could have won last year versus TJ freaking Yates, and everything is setup for them to finally do so now.

Colts +6.5 over Ravens, 24-19

-I really believe that the Colts will upset the Ravens this weekend. I predicted it weeks ago. I have a friend that can attest to this fact. And for those claiming Chuckstrong is counteracted by Ray Lewis's return/retirement news, stop. Lewis already has his announcing gig lined up, clearly has his mind elsewhere now. He isn't that good anymore anyways. The Colts are riding high and coming in with good vibes from their win over the Texans, a game they didn’t need and the Texans did. The Ravens will have trouble with Wayne and even Ballard. While it is true Flacco tends to get better in the playoffs, his general inconsistency scares me. And somehow, despite Ray Rice having the potential to run all over Indy, I think he gets a strong lack of carries. BAL key guard Yanda either won’t play or will be playing hurt. Luck is really good and has that special something, kind of Big Ben esch, and I think they move on. So ends an era from Raven football.

Packers -7.5 over Vikings, 37-20

-I know the purple men from northern Europe just won this matchup last week, but that was different. The Viks were at home, and the Pack were playing for seeding, not their playoff lives. Big difference. Last week featured both a strong multi TD game from Rodgers and a 200 yard game from Peterson with no big runs. Guess which situation I find more replicable? Packers are also getting Woodson and Cobb back, and will unleash Matthews full force. Finally, it is pretty much impossible for Tramon Williams to be that bad again. However, it is fully possible for Christian Ponder to be much much worse than he was. Green Bay is my pick to go to the Super Bowl from NFC, and nothing in this game is going to distract me from that.

Seahawks -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 26-17

-It should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I am taking the Seahawks over the Ethnic Slurs. In a battle of rookie quarterbacks with a style I don't particularly like, I will take the quiet inconsistent leadership of Russell Wilson over the hobbled and overly simplified offense of RG3. However, the truth is the difference in this matchup will probably come mostly come from the vast disparity in their defensive secondaries. Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner should easily dominate their matchups and cause Griffin to have the biggest problems in his young career.  On the other side however, the WAS defense, held together by sticks, glue, and strong play calling, will finally be exposed for its lack of talent. This is mainly due to injury and isn’t their fault, but is just the truth. It will not matter that Seattle is on the road.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-4

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 141-75

By Spread: 110-100

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 530-272
By Spread: 435-373