Monday, November 29, 2010

NFL Slants for Week 12


Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I hope you enjoyed the full slate of games. There is a lot to process from this weekend, so here we go:

Checking Down:
-Roy Williams, what was that? GET DOWN. Can we start teaching players that once a first down is made, or an interception occurs, and you have less than 2 minutes remaining, up by any score, you GET DOWN. I don’t care about you wanting to score. 

-The Jets won a game that was in contention for way too long. This will catch up to them versus New England this week.
-The truth is, I don’t blame NE, NO, or NYJ for their slow starts/close portions of games to inferior opponents. They played on 80 hours rest, 2 of them on the road. They won their games, with the Pats and Jets pulling away at the end. Just getting through the circumstances is good enough.
-ATL pulls out another close game versus a good opponent. This team can hang with anyone because of its methodical and complete style. Home field is huge for them. Green Bay showed great strength though. Atlanta seems the most consistent NFC team, if not a dominant one.
-Buffalo won a great moral victory today, and the Steelers showed they are the better team. However, they also showed they are incredibly vulnerable. Baltimore should take them head to head and win that division.
-CLE-CAR was just a big pile of yuck. Can Jake Delhomme just be done now? Steve Smith looks ready to kill someone.
-Tennessee is done. This is a good team done in by a lack of true Quarterback. Randy Moss anyone? His 4th team might be coming soon.
-Rusty Smith is officially the worst starting QB in the league, congratulations. When you dethrone Jake Delhomme and Derek Anderson, you’ve accomplished something.
-Poor Chris Johnson. And his owners. Like me. Randy Moss creating spacing my…..
-Houston won a game versus an already defeated foe. Do not read into it. The Texans are not going anywhere either.
-Did either team really want it in the NYG-JAX affair? Neither one is going anywhere but a first round exit at this point if they do make the playoffs.
-Don’t get too excited Viking fans: it was just the Skins. Adrian Peterson’s injury is worrisome. They should shut him down if he has any kind of real issue.
-There’s Oakland! Who smells 5-11 coming?
-Miami is much better with Chad Henne, and no one should talk about Chad Pennington, Tyler Thigpen, or anybody else again. He is at least as good as a 2003 Jake Delhomme or 2005 Jake Plummer or the like, so he can be a usable starter, given time and more help at receiver. They need a running game. And a healthy Jake Long.
-Ricky Williams is clearly the better back in Miami right now. He needs to play more, and then be resigned to a decent deal. Ronnie Brown has never been healthy, and his skill at “Wildcatting” is overrated. They need a fresh new back, not overpay an old and overrated Brown. Of course, they will.
-KC won the game it should win, mainly because Bowe and Charles were awesome. Seattle pulls its Jekyll and Hyde routine again. Next week, we get “pumped and jacked” Pete Carroll or “let’s cut half the team and see what happens” Pete Carroll?
-TB made the game versus the Ravens close, but showed why they are one year away. They need a consistent second receiver, and an edge rusher.
-Chicago is for real people. When the offense clicks like that, the team is hard to beat. Hester makes a big different, and swings emotion and excitement at Soldier Field if nothing else.
-STL showed growth in this game, both in exploding to a lead and then barely holding one. Bradford showed progression and really just needs an ace wide receiver to grow with. Denver shows a lot of fight, but is really a bad fundamental football team. We do need to see Tebow at some point soon. You know, to firmly prove he is NOT an NFL QB.
-Chris Long, you have grown up! He made two great plays to close out the game for the Rams. While I am not sure he will be Jared Allen, being another Justin Smith is not out of the question. That is not a bad thing.
-SD made a statement, winning in Indy in primetime. Indy should recover from NE/SD in enough time to win this division. They should run the division games at least. However, this is a flawed team that is going to get killed in the second round on the road at New England or Pittsburgh/Baltimore. Hell, if they get San Diego at some point they’ll get killed there.
-This loss knocks Manning off the MVP list. Vick’s so so games and general low number of starts should prevent him from winning. At this point I have Matty Ice third, Brady second, and Rivers first.
-Yes, Rivers. He is now 6-5, and 4 of the wins are his alone. And, 2 of the losses would be wins by Rivers if the Bolts had any special teams at all. He is now the MVP favorite, deal with it.
-Funny stat: Rivers could break Marino’s mark this year and win the MVP but still be second in all time passing yards for a season. Kyle Orton is slinging it with no inhabitations right now. I think Tebow plays at some point and thus Orton is slowed, but you never know. 

-I am posting this column before Monday Night’s SF-ARI game. You know why? Because I don’t care about it. It doesn’t matter. And ESPN is going to take a ratings bath on it. The teams suck. I laughed so hard when I heard the commercials with Jon Gruden promoting “Derek Anderson’s big time arm” and “Patrick Willis’s toughness”. Hey ESPN? We don’t spend our time watching a QB ground balls ten yards from their receivers no matter how hard they throw it.

Going Deep:
-The Patriots are rolling, and are showing themselves as the class of the AFC at least, if not the NFL. It is like the 2003 Patriots offense with deeper routes. Their defense is growing all the time. They need a great pass rusher, and this unit will be above average at absolute worst next year. 

This win against Detroit was impressive for one particular reason. All this season, the Patriots have come out and dominated first halves, especially versus good teams. In the second halves, the other team adjusts and comes back, normally falling short. Other teams can do this because the Pats team, especially the young secondary, is not talented or developed enough. The win against Detroit is interesting because the opposite was true. They came out lethargic, clearly out of energy on short rest after two tough games versus Indy and Pitt, traveling to Detroit on a holiday. But, they came together in the second half and asserted their talent dominance. So, that was impressive.

The true test however, is the Jets next week. The Colts may not be very good anymore, and Pittsburgh has some clear issues. The Jets seem to be their truest test and the last thing controlling New England’s destiny in the AFC playoffs and division. I think they bet the overachieving Jets, but we will see. If they do, no matter how Atlanta plays, NE will jump into the top spot in my power rankings.

-We need to get over network rules. When a channel (cough, CBS, cough) has an hour of after game shows scheduled, there is no reason to switch away from an overtime game to let us watch the analysts talk about nothing. You know what you had CBS? An overtime game versus the first quarter of Fox’s game. You know what you did with it? You threw it away by “having to switch away”. Now, if you have another TV show starting up, I would understand more. However, you did not. You had an hour of the studio talking about the early games. Show the overtime game! I changed the channel to the Bears-Eagles game and looked up the Bills overtime on the internet. Congrats CBS, you lost a chance to keep some audience when they weren’t planning to be watching CBS.

It is time we ignore these “network regulations” and show the end of games. We want to see the whole product. In an era where CBS and FOX football games are slowly getting drained by RedZone, On Demand, every game on a NFL channels, and internet sites broadcasting individual games instead of watching a channel that happens to have a game, it would make sense to change the rules a bit. I mean, it is also important to show the end of games more than the beginning of others. See, TNT and the NBA does this. Even MLB will do this (On TBS no less). But the NFL is so tied up in contracts; they have forgotten that they have to finish what they start to show. We really don’t care about the analysts. Show us the games. Hell, even the Analysts seem to be annoyed by this to be honest.



BLISS




Wednesday, November 24, 2010

NFL 2010 Week 12 Predictions

WEEK 11 NFL predictions and statements:


My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis
1. Atlanta (1) – They didn’t lose. And St. Louis is pretty good. It is a good test at home this week for them.
2. New England (2) – We’ll see if they roll over Detroit this week, but I’m a believer.  
3. Baltimore (3) – They creamed a team they should have, so we didn’t find much out.
4. New Orleans (6) – They are rolling, SHHHH!
5. Green Bay (7) – Quietly rounding into shape. Still too hurt to be a true contender, but a butt whopping is still a butt whopping, and they just laid one down on a tough opponent.
6. Philadelphia (8) – Won versus my number 5 team from last week, even if it was unconvincing.
7. New York Giants (5) – Injuries are now hitting them at the skill positions.
8. Pittsburgh (NR) – I have no faith in this team, but they did win convincingly against a team that was over .500.

Dropped Out: Indianapolis – This team is way too hurt, and Manning cannot do it all. The defense still rushes great, but without leads that advantage goes away. Brady showed how to beat them: middle draws, 1 and 3 step drops, and big tight ends punishing short. Plus, stay on the field.


My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis
29. Cincinnati (NR) – You know, I almost put Buffalo here, but then realized they dropped 45 on Cincy. So, welcome Bengals.
30. Detroit (30) – Without Stafford, this will get bad.
31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow anyone?
32. Carolina (32) – Tony Pike anyone?


NFL 2010 week 12 picks:
Patriots -6.5 over Detroit, 30-21
-Pats may be a little tired, but I don’t see them losing to both Cleveland and Detroit in a month where they beat Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. Belichick makes sure they focus.

Saints -3.5 over Dallas, 28-17
-Saints are much better team than Dallas, and we are getting to the time of the year where each game matters so there is no let up.

Jets -10 over Cincinnati, 21-10
-Jets run over the Bengals. See logic for Saints-Dallas.

Vikings +2.5 over Redskins, 24-13
-This tells you all you need to know: New interim coach. Vikings win this one because Washington cannot stop Peterson.

Atlanta -2.5 over Green Bay, 30-27
-Atlanta wins at home, and can pound the run. Green Bay storms back to make it close, but falls short. 

Giants -7 over Jacksonville, 21-13
-Giants have huge injury issues, but win this game because they are much better. The pass rush will kill the Jags.

Houston -5 over Titans, 31-17
-Rusty Smith, and Houston can actually score.

Bears +3 over Eagles, 27-23
-The Bears expose Vick, and the defense forces mistakes. Forte has a good game finally.

Rams +5 over Broncos, 24-17
-Teaser alert, take Rams +11. We might be seeing Tebow soon.

Chargers +3 over Colts, 31-28
-The Colts are too banged up and Rivers marches toward his MVP with Jackson back. 

Cardinals over 49ers, 20-17
-SF is terrible, Cardinals are only somewhat bad. Wow, ESPN, wow.

Buffalo +11 over Steelers, 20-26
-Buffalo has another close game, but cannot finish it. Still, Steelers, this is your trap game....


Record last week:
Straight up: 10-3
Against the Spread: 9-4

Record this year:
Straight up: 77-37
Against the Spread: 58-57

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 195-105
Against the Spread: 158-143



BLISS





Monday, November 22, 2010

NFL Slants for Week 11


Checking Down:
-The Colts are just too hurt, and Peyton knows it. That is why he played for the win and not overtime. He knew he wasn’t going to get another chance
-Houston needs a secondary badly
-The Jets win again, and while I don’t believe in them still, my own logic with the Pats applies. The team that comes from behind every week is still winning
-Baltimore dominated like it should, but the defense took a long time to come around
-Buffalo unloaded a can of whop ass on Cincy. Maybe we need to see the other Palmer soon
-Dallas is decent team. We knew that, but they were apparently sleeping. Now the question is: Does Romo come back?
-Jacksonville just keeps on winning. I almost hope they make the playoffs, because that would be entertaining to watch them get blown out first round
-KC blew out Arizona, like we thought. Funny thing is, Larry Fitz continues on pace to be better than Anquan Boldin this year
-This was an assertive moment for both Pittsburgh and Green Bay to put potential challenges essentially out of their misery and assert themselves as clear upper echelon teams. It is truly impressive for Green Bay
-There’s the Oakland we all know
-Tennessee proves my point from last week that this is a QB driven league, and they have someone called “Rusty Smith” at the position. Yup
-New Orleans is rolling…..shhhhh
-TB puts SF out of its misery, but we didn’t really learn anything in that game, did we?
-ATL won convincingly, but St. Louis showed its quality again. Bradford is going to be SPECIAL
-Philly and the G-Men both showed deep flaws (PHI-red zone inefficiency, scoring without the big play, and NYG-consistency and throwing from behind). It is why the NFC champ will most likely come out of the South

Going Deep:
-The Pats again dominated the game. That they almost let up the lead again (like the BAL, PIT, and SD games) just shows a young secondary and normal garbage time effects. However, that they have “almost” let up 4 times against 4 really good teams but never did really does show something about them. Best coached team in the league, by far. They, and Brady, will matter come playoff time. Now, they just need to beat the Jets and they will have head to head tiebreakers over the Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, and Colts for top seeding. Now THAT is impressive. 

BLISS

Thursday, November 18, 2010

NFL 2010 Week 11 Predictions

WEEK 11 NFL predictions and statements:


My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis
1. Atlanta (3) – They proved they can win close games, and this is a well built team.
2. New England (4) – I am giving them the benefit of the doubt with the Cleveland game, and I think they beat Indy this week.
3. Baltimore (2) – They slip only a little with a loss, because it was to my number 1 team.
4. Indianapolis (5) – They won, and are figuring out how to win games. I am excited for this week.
5. New York Giants (1) – To the Cowboys? Well, this could be their Cleveland-NE game.
6. New Orleans (7) – They didn’t lose.
7. Green Bay (8) – They didn’t lose either.
8. Philadelphia (NR) – I have to rank them after that EXPLOSIVE performance. They may not win anything in the playoffs, but you what? Take the over.

Dropped Out: Pittsburgh – Injuries and inconsistency


My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis
29. Washington (NR) – Welcome to the basement Ethnic Slurs.
30. Detroit (NR) – Without Stafford, this will get bad.
31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow anyone?
32. Carolina (32) – Tony Pike anyone?


NFL 2010 week 11 picks:

Chicago +2 over Miami, 24-13
-There is no way Miami can win set up like this. Plus, analysts might explode if Chicago is 7-3, and that would entertain me.

Baltimore -9 over Carolina, 31-3
-I think the Ravens smell weakness over in Pittsburgh and turn on their best from here on out. Carolina is terrible and this could be epically bad.

Cincinnati -5 over Buffalo, 28-17
-That was nice Buffalo, but this is one team the Bengals are actually better than.

Cowboys +7 over Lions, 27-17
-Lions have good effort, but the Cowboys are hitting right now, and they will roll over Detroit here.

Cardinals +9 over Chiefs, 20-16
-Chiefs win a grinder, and Derek Anderson makes a late mistake to seal it.

Packers -3 over Vikings, 31-21
-Packers blast Favre, and seize their division. This week might see the end of Favre and Childress, though Peterson should have a great game.

Texans +7 over Jets, 24-23
-The Jets have won several they shouldn’t have, and to a lesser degree the Texans have lost some they shouldn’t have. The Texans have to have their bounce back game, and I think this is it.

Raiders +8.5 over Steelers, 17-21
-Steelers are not great, but they are good enough to beat the Raiders.

Titans -5.5 over Washington, 27-10
-This might be more grinding than the Eagles victory, but I think it will as total.

Saints -11.5 over Seahawks, 34-7
-This could be ugly. Saints roll.

Falcons -3 over St. Louis, 24-17
-This is a better game than most think, especially the schedule makers back in August. However, the Falcons are better, and take care of business here. STL cannot stop the run and Michael Turner should have a big game.

Patriots -3 over Colts, 31-27
-These games are always close, but the Colts are too beat up and this game is in NE. I think NE gets out ahead early, and Manning makes it close late. Big games out of Reggie Wayne and Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis.

NYG-PHI could be many things, but it will be OVER

Chargers -10 over Broncos, 35-21
-Obviously, the over is in play here, even though it is 49. Chargers need this, and the Broncos burnt out last week.



Record last week:
Straight up: 7-2
Against the Spread: 6-3

Record this year:
Straight up: 67-34
Against the Spread: 49-53

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 185-102
Against the Spread: 149-139


Tuesday, November 16, 2010

NFL Slants for Week 10


Checking Down:
-NE made a statement….that Pittsburgh can be beaten when they don’t have a LT or Aaron Smith
-ATL and BAL both impressed me, and it was a game where someone had to lose but both won in the long run. Baltimore came out much better than Pittsburgh this weekend
-Congrats Buffalo, you got one. You might only get that one, so enjoy it. Detroit would have won that game by 14 if they had Stafford healthy
-Say what you want about Chicago being the worst 6-3 team in history (they might be), but they find ways to win games, and Cutler looks good when protected. If they draft/sign some good O-Lineman and a good WR next year (Vincent Jackson?), this could be a good team next.
-That being said, I am praying the Bears get in the playoffs so I can pick against them first round
-Childress firing in 5,4,3,2….
-The Jets deserve to be about 5-3-1, winning maybe 1 out of 3 of their fluke games and getting a tie in another. I still think Sanchez will self destruct in the playoffs despite their inflated win total
-Houston, that was tough. KNOCK THE BALL DOWN!
-Carolina, wow
-Tampa Bay made a great case for a being a good but not great team. They are doing the “beat the bad teams” thing, but not rising up against tough teams. This team will benefit from a playoff experience and be a force next year
-Indy is getting it done and will be there in the end, but if they are on the road at Baltimore, Pitt, or New England in the playoffs in winter, it could be bad. Actually, we are getting a preview of that next week….
-Denver erupted, but it was just Kansas City unable to keep pace. This is why the Chiefs are going to top out at about 9 wins, and need to be more dynamic. However, Denver was due for a big week. They are going to wish they saved some energy when San Diego creams them next week.
-Seattle/Arizona….eh, meh
-The Giants got “CLE-NE”d, it was their trap game to a close foe, and that was it. However, I would take ATL/NO over them in the playoffs because this tremendous tendency to self destruct and look terrible
-And Vick scores again……and his salary goes up to 12 million a year next year….
-Sam Bradford proves, in a loss, how he is going to be awesome. Seriously, 12 of 42 passes hit the ground, with those receivers. STL must be doing back flips
-Troy Smith should remain the QB for San Fran until further notice….don’t worry Mike Singletary, I’ll tell you when to switch


Going Long:
-MIA winning despite their QB losses was admirable. Thigpen isn’t terrible, but this win was a more a statement of how Tennessee isn’t quite there yet. I don’t see enough to make them a true contender or even challenge a flawed and hurt Indianapolis for the division crown.

You know, Tennessee is pretty consistency a decent or better team but only has one Super Bowl appearance and 0 wins in the Jeff Fisher Era. This is because the team is tough on Defense, has good O-Line play, and good running. However, the quick, athletic QB does not win the big game. The field general does. Brady/Manning/Manning/Brees and Roeslithberger have won the Super Bowls this decade, and what is the correlation there? Good passing in the two minute drill and great WR play. Tennessee can get 10 wins on toughness, but not win the big game.


-Donovan McNabb confuses me.

Physically, he looks good. He is big, strong, and still really mobile. For 33, he looks pretty good in terms of energy and youthfulness. However, his numbers have never been awesome, especially because he never finishes complete seasons. And yet, because he is on year 13, he has a good chance to end up in the high echelon passing charts. He has gone to 4 Conference title games and over a decade of playoffs, but never won the Super Bowl. So, he’s Jim Kelly? You know, Andy Reid’s success with Kolb and Vick (and to a lesser degree with Feely, Detmer, Garcia, etc), leads me to believe while Donovan was good, Reid made him much better, as did the system they run. 

So, Donovan got benched last week. They gave up a second round pick, have no real second QB (Rex Grossman, don’t get me started), and then benched him when they needed him most. Was he slow in the 2 minute drill? Yes, he was. But, he still gives them the best chance to win by my examination. So, he plays for this season. But, he is only going to get older and slower next year (as will Shanny, by the way). So, why ink him to a 5 year 78 million dollars extension? I understand that if he is cut before next year he only gets 4 million, but that 4 million is wasted money even by itself. They will probably end up playing him in 2011 due to lack of options, really figure out they are screwed, and then regret the 40 million guaranteed they gave him.
Wait, and why are the Washington Redskins unsuccessful every year again?


BLISS

Friday, November 12, 2010

NFL 2010 Week 10 Predictions

WEEK 10 NFL predictions and statements:


So, here goes:


My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. New York Giants (6) – I still think the AFC wins the Super Bowl, but this team may have the easiest run up to the big game, with really only Atlanta in their way. Their pass rush is still the difference, and Eli may actually be a field general and a decent leader.
2. Baltimore (3) – I still think they are better than Atlanta because of special teams and because their pass defense can be so much better.
3. Atlanta (4) – The Saints will probably make a run at them, but they are clearly a solid team with perhaps the league’s best young QB/WR combo.
4. New England (1) – Belichick will miss what ails them, and Brady won’t be in a rut for long.
5. Indianapolis (2) – This team will be fine but I doubt whether they will ever be elite this year. However, in this weird year, will that matter?
6. Pittsburgh (5) – The injuries are mounting, and while they are still very good and well coached, something is not quite right about them.
7. New Orleans (NR) – They are starting to roll, and have a week to get healthy.
8. Green Bay (NR) – See above, but mostly this is about the defense finding itself.



My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis
29. Buffalo (30) – They are really trying! I almost feel bad for them.
30. Dallas (NR) – That’s right Dallas, you are below Buffalo. How does that feel?
31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow anyone?
32. Carolina (32) – Tony Pike anyone?



NFL 2010 week 10 picks:

Bucs -6.5 over Panthers, 24-10
-This should be a laugher, and Blount could have a huge fantasy game. However, I predict this starts a string of useful fantasy days by DeAngelo Williams. He is a free agent to be you know.

Cincinnati +7.5 over Colts, 24-31
-I’m not crazy: Indy is winning this game. However, the Bengals showed me they aren’t totally done by their effort versus Pittsburgh. Also, Indy may not be able to hold off the late surge.

Buffalo -2.5 over Lions, 17-14
-Detroit is too beat up, and Stanton might be the QB. Buffalo needs one, this is a home game (whatever that means for Buffalo anymore).

NYJ -3 over Browns, 17-10
-Another grudge match for Mangini, but I don’t see the Browns hitting a 3 game win streak versus the Pats, Saints, and Jets. That might cause the apocalypse.

Titans -1 over Miami, 34-10
-The Chad Pennington Era will be rough on many people. The Titans will roll Michael Griffin towards Brandon Marshall and take him away. Moss will draw some guys from CJ2000, and I think this will be a laugher.

Arizona -3 over Seattle, 24-20
-I officially don’t believe in Pete Carroll as a pro coach. SHOCKER.

Rams +6 over 49ers, 23-20
-Not line needed, I think the Rams win outright and continue their run toward a 500 season and possible playoff spot. The 49ers are not good, and Steven Jackson should run them over.

New England +5.5 over Pittsburgh, 30-28
-I think New England falls behind and then makes it interesting late. However, Pittsburgh is probably better right now. I will say, New England is heading up, and Pittsburgh down in the grand scheme of things. I also never want to have Belichick mad or ashamed. The Pats don’t lose back to back games.

Eagles -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-13
-Redskins dissolve into disarray, and Eagles cruise despite not truly being dominant.



Record last week:
Straight up: 8-3
Against the Spread: 4-7

Record this year:
Straight up: 60-32
Against the Spread: 43-50

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 178-100
Against the Spread: 143-136