Week 21 Predictions:
Every time I went to start this column these past two weeks I
got distracted by something. It just never worked out. The world is awash with
so many things right now that my timeline which is normally choked by sports is
instead now constructed of political commentary. And honestly, that is how it
should be. There are more important things going on. I also have been properly
whelmed by the course I am currently in, though mostly for good reasons. This
all made returning to finish this year’s predictions hard. I have an hour or
two now, so I might as well go for it here.
I picked the Packers and Patriots to go to the Super Bowl this
season, and got it about right. I thought both teams would have great offensive
seasons and NE would be organized on defense to match Green Bay’s energy on
defense. Well, I got that all pretty close to correct in that A. Green Bay
almost made it and B. Atlanta fits a lot of those descriptors for “Green Bay”.
I got the feel of the season right.
Once the AFC and NFC Title games were finished two weeks ago
(side note, do we really need this many weeks before the Super Bowl? Jeez am I
not in football mode anymore), I was leaning toward the Falcons. The Pats
offense is just as productive, but the Falcons are exciting. They are dynamic
and interesting and downright more athletic. There was a great pass early in
the game versus the Packers where Ryan completed pass in the right flats to a
running back moving horizontally covered absolutely admirably by the
linebacker. The back caught it three yards from the sideline in a way that had
at the moment accomplished nothing and Ryan could have been chided for throwing
it into a tight spot with no reward. However, the back turned upfield without
losing momentum and ran for 15 yards. 0 Yard pass, 15 YAC. Brady throws to
backs too, but they are moving forward, or have already gotten to a spot.
Atlanta is scary athletic at multiple positons and produces plays like this all
the time.
I have also gained a lot of respect for Atlanta’s offense this year.
Just as NE lost Gronk, Julio was a shadow of his normal self for the second
half of the year and Matt Ryan was still dealing. Good system, good principles
by the QB, good use of secondary weapons. And now Julio is better (though still
not optimal), and the Falcons can be scary. There is a lot respect about their
preparation, execution, and then adjusts to circumstances.
That is part of this week not having a ton of energy for me: I
looked at the Rams in 2001 as the evil empire to be toppled. I looked at
Carolina as the tough team to be outsmarted in 2003, proving Brady wasn’t a
fluke. The Eagles were a chance to take down TO and his big mouth, establish a
dynasty in 2004. The Giants in 2007 were for a perfect season and then revenge
in 2011. The Seahawks were the team I disliked for “you mad Bro?”, and to bring
a title to the back half of Brady’s career after 3-0 became 3-4 in the Super
Bowl. This one? The Falcons are...just a solid team. They have a kid from BC at
quarterback. We get a fifth one, that’d be great and all but I’ll take a good
game either way. It’s not personal. I’m not mad about Deflategate anymore.
Brady was suspended 4 games and is going to finish top 3 in the MVP voting. We
won that battle. We are already the tallest building in the hall of champions
with this two decade run. Add a flag on top I guess, it’ll be nice and add a
few feet but we have nothing to prove. It’s all there already.
The line opened at -3, and the under over at 60 (59 or 59.5 in
some places). I sat and thought about it and quickly came to the conclusion
that there really wasn’t a scenario that I was going to bet on Atlanta. NE is
just a better team. They’ve been there all year. Atlanta has the best offense,
NE was second (both by points and DVOA). NE starts to rival Atlanta’s rating
when you eliminated the non-Brady weeks in September. Their special teams are
about tied. Both quarterbacks had great years, both have great young
coordinators doing innovative and smart things.
So, I started to look for the differences. Both the OCs are
young and vibrant. NE’s is staying, and has the experience of winning and
losing the big game. ATL’s has one foot out the door, and has been thinking of
his staff and how to make a QB out of Kap or Gabbert for next year all these
past two weeks. Both the coaches are football guys with good minds and a tough
attitude, no doubt. But NE’s has been here before. He knows what it takes. He
has 6 rings including the two as DC of the Giants. Dan Quinn is a good coach
and deserves more respect. And he played NE in the Super Bowl two years ago.
However, he was a DC then, and lost. A defense with some similar styles is
going to be on display this weekend versus, which brings me to my major
deciding point.
NE’s defense is better. Yes, their schedule helped their average
ranking. However, they allowed the least points this year. That isn’t imaginary
and is part of how they won 16 games this season. Atlanta’s was fine,
generating sacks and big plays. However, they allowed the 25th most
points. It does stink to have New Orleans in your division to play twice and
not the Jets, but here we are. With so many offensive and special teams
categories very close, the defensive margin is so significant. And if I trust
one mind to possibly break Atlanta’s offensive mojo significantly, it is
Belichick. He has a defensive gameplan in the Hall of Fame from being a
coordinator. He broke the spirit of Marshall Faulk so badly in 2001, Marshall STILL
chirps about on NFL Network. I have a lot of faith Bill conjures something up
to disrupt what Atlanta is trying to do. When the best offensive hits the best
defense in the Super Bowl, normally the defense wins. I’m still feeling profits
from Seattle Denver three years ago from endorsing that premise. I lost money
on Carolina Denver last year from ignoring it.
Both this year and in previous years, the anti-Patriots
blueprint is to run the back and control clock (which Atlanta actually could
do), and cause press especially up the middle with athletic rushers. Houston
did it this year, so did Seattle. I’m not even going into the Giants in 07 and
11, which are both great case studies. However, A. Atlanta doesn’t really have
the personnel to do so and B. the NE offensive line is so much better.
The final category to consider is experience. The Falcons have
Quinn’s Seattle time and some of the coaches who have followed him. Freeney has
been there, one or two odd others. For NE it is almost the entire coaching
staff, some with multiple Super Bowl appearances. 23 players have player more
than half the snaps in a Super Bowl, and even more have some experience. They’ve
done this crazy week, the media, the angst and anticipation. This isn’t foreign
to them. This sort of thing matters. I like the comparison to the Eagles Super
Bowl stylistically, but I think the pull-away is more pronounced:
Pats -3 over
Falcons, 34-24
Best bets:
Brady for MVP: 3-2 Odds – Okay, you could bet the Pats to win,
but you’d lay 3 to get 9.09 on your 10 dollar bet. Or just pick Brady to win
MVP and you’d get 15 on your 10 dollar bet. Odds are he’d win it if NE won
overall, so that’s where my imaginary bet is going. Just a better margin.
NE +3.5 and over 53.5 tease – this seems like stealing. One of
these teams is getting to 30, and I don’t see either being under 20, so 53 is
really doable. NE getting the FG in this scenario is a gift.
Will either team score 4 unanswered times – 1 to 2.5: No – that doesn’t
happen often and this game will multiple answered scores. I’ll play 25 to win
10 on that.
Team with most first downs, -135, Patriots – Logic being NE
churns on drives and Atlanta gashes. -135 is decent odds there.
Higher scoring half, -130: Second – Super Bowls start slow, and
NE Super Bowls especially do. I’ll take the second half as the teams start to
land punches instead of jabbing and moving in circles.
Total sacks, 4: Over – Brady eats at least one per game on
purpose to not create a pick or fumble. Atlanta’s offensive line is only okay,
and I wouldn’t be surprised at pressure being a big part of their package to
through at Ryan. At least you earn the push on 4.
Ryan and Brady over 315.5 passing yards: Over – I like this
better than scoring, as I think both pile up yardage in this game.
Brady throws TD in 2nd Q, -220: Yes – They score a
lot in the second quarters, strangely. Obvously at -220 Vegas knows this too.
Edelman over 7.5 catches, -125: Yes – It’s Edelman and Brady in
the Superbowl. The ball is going his way.
Record last week:
Straight Up: 2-0
By Spread: 1-1
Record this year:
Straight Up: 152-93
By Spread: 128-115
Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1096-609
By Spread: 902-788
Straight Up: 1096-609
By Spread: 902-788
