NFL 2012 Week 4 Predictions

Well, that went badly. I am still above .500, but only just barely. Time to make a run past .625.

Falcons -7 over Panthers, 31-17

-Seems like a good place to start. Why this is 7 I don’t know. By all rights Atlanta should light them up. Cam can only do so much and Atlanta’s defense is quietly taking care of business while the offense gets the publicity.

Pats -4.5 over Bills, 31-20

-Recent news about Rob Gronkowski’s hip is a little disturbing, but there is no way this Patriots team can A. go 1-3, B. keep sputtering offensively like they have, or C. keep the awkwardness of the Wes Welker situation going. Unfortunately, I think that while the first two things are handled, the third will be solved by Welker getting traded. The Sports Guy’s prediction of Welker going to Seattle actually sounds scarily appropriate. I really hope not though. Pats start a 9 game winning streak here (somewhat based on talent but look at that schedule. The Rams and Dolphins feature prominently). Why this is 4.5 in the Vegas Zone I have no clue, jump on a rare Pats line not versus the Packers, Giants, Ravens, or Steelers that isn’t above 7.

Chiefs +1.5 over Chargers, 24-23

Because they are at Arrowhead. Because Norv Turner is involved. Because team ACL (KC’s new nickname, due to all the players just turning it on after ACL injuries in previous years) is finally alive. And because Atlanta exposed SD’s defense as not actually being great.

Seahawks -3 over Rams, 16-10

-Ugh, unwatchable slugfest. Seattle just wins because that defense is so good. And because no Rams’ draft picks on the OL have worked out since Orlando Pace. 3.5 would be dangerous, stay away. Lynch has a good fantasy day here.

Niners -4.5 over Jets, 20-9

-Because the NFC better than AFC? I don’t have a great pulse on this, so I am going with the conference thing. Sanchez can just be made to look terrible, and that Bills’ game is going to be a big aberration before this year is done in relationship to how it presented the Jets offense. Niners come out angry in this one.

Texans -12 over Titans, 24-10

-A “take care of business” game. Wait, I said that last week for the Vikings-Niners game? Well, this time I mean it. Chris Johnson’s nightmare season doesn’t reorient itself here.

Raiders +7 over Broncos, 27-20

-WAY too many points here. In fact I’ll just take the upset. See, the Raiders do it all ugly. Win ugly. Lose ugly. Snap the ball to punters ugly. But at the end of the game, Palmer has numbers, McFadden has affected the game in a positive way, and Lechler and Seabass have kicked the ball over 55 yards once each. And at least the Raiders know who they are (Tommy Kelly aside). Peyton doesn’t yet know that his current level of arm strength best suits him for a role with the Colts, Broncos, Titans, or Volunteers…as the offensive coordinator.

Cards -6 over Fins, 23-10

-Love my Cards, hate Tannehill. Cards made Vick and Brady look human. Imagine what they do to this sad offensive arrangement. Fitzgerald goes OFF. Kevin Kolb goes 4-0, the Mayans grin.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Bengals -2.5 over Jaguars, 24-13

-Yeah, the Bengals are at minimum decently good, and the Jaguars are at best mediocre. No last minute miracles here. Big game by AJ Green though, and I have a suspicion MoJo gets corralled.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bucs -2.5 over Racial Slurs, 27-17

-Washington is starting to crumble as predicted, with the injuries to that team really taking a toll. And if Tampa Bay had some play calling from this century, they’d have a better record, and definitively would have beaten the Cowboys. Bucs finally breakout on offense and win this one solidly. Feels like time for a random 7 for 185 and 2 TDs from Vincent Jackson, right?

Packers -7.5 over Saints, 52-24

-I predict one of the biggest “eff you” games ever from the Packers and a ridiculous scoring output. Consider: A. the injustice of last week, B. the breakout that is coming from the Packers offensively, C. the result of this matchup last season, and D. the directions of both teams.

For point A, I think it is just a case of the Packers being pissed off, but because the coaching staff is so good it will be focused instead of a detriment. For point B, they have played the Seahawks, Bears, and Niners while missing Greg Jennings (injury) and Jermichael Finley (hands), and incorporating Cedric Benson into the fold. That is three awesome pass defenses, and a tough schedule overall. Point C is just a reference, but we know how big Saints/Packers games go, versus each other and other similar opponents. Point D, well, put it this way: New Orleans lost to Washington, Carolina, and Kansas City. For all three of those teams, their win over the Saints is their only one, the aberration in their thus far unsatisfactory seasons. The Packers, like the Patriots, have “good” losses.

Finally, not sure the Saints are going to put up a ton of garbage time points and yards. Green Bay, after being historically the worst passing defense ever last year, are quietly number 1 in that department this year. Just saying…

Giants +1.5 over Eagles, 33-16

-Put records and feelings aside. The Giants are champs, know the formula to beat the Eagles, and are trending upwards. They are getting healthier and working new parts into an already prime system. The Eagles choke in big games, are prone to going on multi-week slides, are getting more and more hurt, and Mike Vick has 11 turnovers in 3 games. If the Bengals and Cards didn’t exist, this would be my Eliminator game.

Bears +3.5 over Cowboys, 27-22

Ware on J’Marcus Webb could be ugly, but that’s about all I am afraid of in this one. Cowboys kick too many field goals and get victimized on special teams or defense. The preceding sentence was both a fact and prediction. Cutler and crew get enough done on offense to secure a victory.

I got laughed at a bit for my Bears over Ravens Super Bowl pick, and yeah it doesn’t look like the best thing ever. But my point remains true: The Bears last year were playing some of the best football before Forte and Cutler got hurt. They remain the same on special teams and defense from then, and by any measure got better on offense by replacing Roy Williams with Brandon Marshall. And while it hasn’t been pretty, that defense has been dominant. Even in that Packers “blowout”, they allowed one significant drive for a TD (Packers scored another TD on a fake field goal). They shut the Rams and Colts down hard. Just saying, I am not jumping away from my Bears pick, even if Monday night doesn’t see them perform well. I continue to believe.

Note: next week will begin my top and bottom 5 rankings, as I like to get at least 4 weeks worth of data before doing those. See you then, happy football.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 25-18

By Spread: 22-20

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 414-215
By Spread: 342-293

MIKE

NFL 2012 Week 3 Predictions

Well, that was pretty brutal. There were some really bad beats last week, including just brutal finishes for me in the NE-ARI game (I even picked Arizona to be good this year, can’t be mad at anyone but myself for trying to lay 14 with NE) and the PHI-BAL game (I just have no words. That was grounding....I just can't).

This is snapback weekend. We all overreacted about week 1 (how great NE, BAL, and NYJ were, and how bad CLE, CIN, and BUF were). Now, after week 2 produced for the most part opposite performances we readjust again snapping back to our preseason thoughts about these 1-1 teams. These teams are so schizophrenic; it is hard to try to find the truth about their identities. And funny enough, this weekend is almost not going to matter. One of Miami and the Jets are going to be 2-1, but both are going to finish under .500. The 49ers and Texans will both probably be 3-0, SD-ATL will produce a 3-0 and 2-1 team as will PHI-ARI. However, only the 49ers have a legit Super Bowl shot out of those 6, and I don’t even like that very much. One of NE and BAL will be 1-2 after tomorrow night, and I think both of those teams are in the conference title game.  

The records are nice but the sample size at this point is so small that I prefer to look at how the teams are playing and what long term implications are out there. One of the reasons I really like Arizona is that the defense is showing they are elite, and whenever they figure out a passing game the team will have the opportunity to be special. Philly is showing that they are injury and turnover prone, so despite their record so far I am confident that this is a team that will fall short later in the season. And finally, the Washington franchise is in trouble. People are being clouded by the allure of RG3. I don’t think he is a bad guy, I like him and his attitude quite a lot actually. But his ability to read defenses and react is far more limited than people are seeing. They are keeping it VERY simple for him, and defenses will react soon (STL did by the end of that game, and that’s STL for goodness’ sake). Washington also lost Carriker and Orakpo for the season, and I expect very little pass rush out of them going forward. Finally, Mike Shanahan is still involved. I am half expecting him to bench Alfred Morris and start Rex Grossman at QB so RG3 can play running back full time. This team isn’t that good anyways, so I expect Washington to start falling off soon. In fact, let’s just start right there…

Bengals +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-16

-I continue not to buy RG3, and the losses of Carriker and Orakpo will spell doom for Washington’s season. Garcon is still hurt people, this just isn’t boding well. Maybe they should change their karma by changing their offensive name. Just saying.

Bills -3 over Browns, 20-13

-Probably a decently ugly game, but I don’t think the Browns can keep their offense producing as they did last week. The Bills win on a couple of Spiller breakaways. Fred Jackson…sorry buddy, you got unlucky with this situation.

Lions -3.5 over Titans, 31-13

-Yeah, no way Tennessee beats the Lions as they stare 0-3 in the face. They were in the playoffs last year. You have Jake Locker. Just, no.

Colts -3 over Jags, 17-13

-I officially believe in Andrew Luck in games like this. He is just better than the Gabbert, Kolb, Weeden, Locker, Alex Smith, Tannehill, Cassel, Ponder, Palmer, Sanchez, Russell Martin level of QB, and in most games that means I am taking the Colts (unless the team is great, like the Niners or Cards). Otherwise, this is just a matchup of bad teams, so Luck breaks the tie.

Chiefs +9.5 over Saints, 24-31

-The Saints likely won’t lose, but 9.5 is way too much. Chiefs cover on their now patented Bowe touchdown near the end. Don’t worry Dwayne, the fantasy owners among us appreciate it all the same. Saints offense produces in this one but it still isn't pretty. 

-Best Eliminator Pick (Saints will win, just not prettily)

Niners -6.5 over Vikings, 24-13

-Good team takes care of bad team. Nothing else to see here. Gore, Gore, Hunter, Gore, Davis, Gore, rinse, repeat.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -7 over Rams, 30-13

-Love the beginnings of a good Rams team, but they are going to be victimized by an angry Bears team that has had 10 days to both prepare and simmer on their loss to the Packers. This is also one of those “don’t bet the under” games because it is queued up for a kick return TD or an interception return.

Bucs +9 over Cowboys, 24-27

-Like the Chiefs/Saints game, this line is just too big. Cowboys win most times this game is played but the cover is the smarter play.

Falcons +3.5 over Chargers, 31-30

-Take the points, there are way too many of them. Take the over, it is sitting there for you. As for the winner? I have no idea. I trust Matty Ice, so I’ll go that way in a close game. And the Falcons, even with the Michael Turner situation, will have far more of their guys available.

Cardinals +3.5 over Eagles, 22-21

-Just win baby. The Cardinals are doing it ugly, but getting it done. I don’t trust the Eagles at all. The green birds are coming in hurt, turning it over like crazy, and the Cardinals are sitting there ready with that amazing defense. I think they blast the heck out of Michael Vick, and score enough themselves to win. Calling a Patrick Peterson score somehow in this “upset” pick. (Notice in how legitimizing this pick I didn’t use the term “Kevin Kolb”. Let’s not discuss it, okay?)

Texans -1 over Broncos, 24-13

-Texans continue to just take care of business. The Broncos are a nice team, but they aren’t elite. Texans overcome the fact that Manning is 16-2 against them, because this isn’t that set up anymore. Foster and Tate stretch out the game, keep Manning off the field, and help the Texans cruise through this game.

Patriots+1.5 over Ravens, 24-23

-It is just hard not to pick Tom Brady against Joe Flacco. It is hard to get around. Also, I like the Patriots because the Ravens defense isn’t that great. Maybe they can be productive, this time with a healthy Gronkowski and usable Ridley. Weird to think one of these teams is going to be 1-2. This should be a hard fought close battle either way. I would not be surprised at a 7 point Ravens win, but the Pats don’t lose back to back games very often, and the adversity tends to push them to big wins, so I will keep the faith with them.

Packers -3 over Seahawks, 30-16

-Please people, don’t overreact. Dallas always gets shellacked in Seattle. The Packers are still the Packers and will score easily on them. 3 points is nothing. Jennings’ health is a concern, but Seattle has Braylon Edwards involved, so…

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 6-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 18-12

By Spread: 14-15

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 407-209
By Spread: 334-288

MIKE

NFL 2012 Week 2 Predictions

I did okay last week considering it was week 1. And I like most of the games this week, probably a little too much. Clearly that means this is going to be bad, so let’s get it over with.

Patriots -13.5 over Cardinals, 40-13

-Kevin Kolb is involved. Also, as good as NE was last week, they still missed a couple of big plays and relatively easy third downs. I see an explosion coming here. Also, Kevin Kolb is involved.

Ravens -1 over Eagles, 27-14

-Yeah, I don’t get this. The Ravens were awesome. The Eagles barely beat a team that put up the following passing stats: 12-35, 116 yards, 4 INTs. Easy win. Ray Rice has a HUGE game.

Bengals -7 over Browns, 24-6

-The Bengals are a decent team, they just drew a tough week 1 assignment. Also, please see the stats of the game from above. BJGE is a great fantasy play this weekend (though I cannot imagine people are not playing him at this point).

-Best Eliminator Pick

Texans – 7 over Jacksonville, 23-10

-Calm down everyone, this isn’t the 85 Bears or 99 Ravens. But Houston is a good defense and Jacksonville is still a mediocre offense. Owen Daniels may continue a good start to his season, good matchup for him.

-Second Best Eliminator Pick

Chiefs +3.5 over Bills, 21-20

-I picked the Bills to make the playoffs, but with what we saw last week I am not sure I can continue to support that. And in any case I also think the Chiefs will win their division. They hung with a good Falcons team last week for a long while. Charles will be warmed up, and the Chiefs squeak one out on the road.

Vikings -1 over Colts, 20-10

-The defensive line will crush Luck. Vikings aren’t great but take care of the Colts. Peterson might only get some work before being pulled in a recurring theme. I would like to support the Vikings having a sneaky good year but the schedule does get tougher.

Saints -2.5 over Panthers, 31-24

-Yeah, the Saints aren’t starting 0-2. Brees will be better, and they will have gotten a lot of update messages from anonymous gmail accounts as Sean Payton is “sitting at home not contacting the team”. Cam has a good day statistically but most of it is from playing from behind.

Dolphins +1 over Raiders, 17-13

-As Bill Simmons said: “Take Carson Palmer on the road in a humid air while the Dolphins are forcing the Raiders to wear their home blacks? I don’t think so”. Does this mean I am backing Ryan Tannehill for a week? Maybe. Let’s just hoping I am backing Reggie Bush for a week. And as always, I am backing Carson Palmer interceptions.

Bucs +7 over Giants, 20-24

-Giants will win this but they just play so mediocre at home I am predicting the cover. Doug Martin is getting a lot of backing this week to perform well, but I think he could actually live up to the billing. Eli may have a shaky week, I’d be more comfortable playing Bradshaw (and am). David Wilson is trying to lose his job.

Cowboys -3 over Seahawks, 27-17

-I like Seattle a lot. Not quite Bill Simmons’ level of liking the Seahawks, but they have a solid team. But their skill position players could be a lot better, and they cannot produce consistent points. The Cowboys can. Thus, the Cowboys win. 2012 NFL everyone.

Rams +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-17

-RG3 gets a little more exposed this week. Washington cannot catch good bounces on all 8 turnover opportunities like they did last week (they caught all three Brees picks, the Saints dropped RG3’s pick, and Washington recovered both teams’ two fumbles). That’s just incredible luck. And Sam Bradford takes another few steps toward reminding us he is actually pretty decent. Too bad they haven’t given him anything at WR. Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney couldn’t go there? Really?

Jets +6.5 over Steelers, 17-16

-I have very little idea who wins this game, but take the points. It should be low scoring and close regardless. The fact that the Steelers have so many injury concerns suggests to me a Jets win, but I hate them too.

Chargers -6 over Titans, 26-13

-Did I miss something? Why are the Titans considered to be good? Bad QB, inconsistent receivers, running back clearly not the same guy as 3 years ago, and they have a banged up quarterback. Oh, they are strong in the front seven and have good line play? Who cares, its 2012. Those things are nice but if you don’t have an elite QB it doesn’t matter anymore. Chargers at least have that, and they will hit more big plays than last week.

Lions +7 over 49ers, 24-23

-Upset alert. Just still don’t see a team in the 49ers that can score with some of the big boys. They got Green Bay, sure, and deserve credit for that win. But I just don’t see how they can score enough with teams like the Lions. As Alex Smith is asked to do more, his career just suggests it will go badly. And if he goes back to doing less, the Lions will score too much. However, if Calvin doesn’t play don’t even think of taking the points.

Falcons -3 over Broncos, 30-24

-Hard to bet against the Manning factor, but I still don’t think you can bet against the Falcons at home. Matt Ryan might be doing a better 2005 Peyton Manning impression this year than 2012 Peyton Manning is. Turner also regains some productivity here.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-4

By Spread: 8-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 11-4

By Spread: 8-7

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 400-201
By Spread: 328-280

MIKE

NFL 2012 Week 1 Predictions and Season Preview

2012 NFL Season Preview and Week 1 Picks

Change. This has definitively been a year of change. I finished my graduate studies, and started a new job in a new place. Likewise in the NFL, I have reflected that we have had a big year of change. Peyton Manning, one of the players in NFL history most identifiable with only one team, changed address. Tim Tebow, the biggest story of last year numbers wise, changed teams. Heck, 45% of the Rams roster from 2011 is now out of the NFL (thankfully, but that is still a stunning number). The NFL has also had some major culture changes. Holdouts happened, but were not rewarded. We now live in the post-Bountygate era, but even that has changed in the last few days. Time will tell on that change, of the ability to legally stand up to Roger’s absolute power. And of course, we have a change in referees. This adjustment to our regularly scheduled program may have long reaching effects into the season, but we will see.

Because I am a little rushed on time this year, here are my predictions more succinctly than usual.
 

AFC North:

Ravens 12-4

Bengals 10-6

Steelers 9-7

Browns 4-12

 

The Ravens have some areas that they can slip in, sure. However, the Steelers have implosion written all over them. The offensive line got worse if at all possible, Mike Wallace won’t be Mike Wallace for a few weeks, ditto for Rashard Mendenhall and Big Ben already has a damaged rotator cuff. The defense continues to age and Troy/Harrison has to jump over the cliff at some point. The Bengals are about the same as last year, just do it more consistently. And the Browns stink as usual, with a 28 year old rookie quarterback and a rookie RB who may well get to 3 knee surgeries in 9 months by the end of the season.

 

AFC East:

Patriots 13-3

Bills 9-7

Jets 6-10

Dolphins 5-11

I have trouble seeing 3 losses on the Patriots schedule, truly. They are a great team and also lucked out. The defense will be better, and the offense the same, maybe even a little more explosive. The Bills are sneaky good and that defense will be sharp. I wish they had one more playmaker though, and something other than Chad Pennington 2.0 at QB. The Jets have the biggest implosion potential of any team, even the Cowboys or Steelers. All the ingredients are there, and on top of it unlike the Steelers and Cowboys, the Jets have exactly no playmakers. At all. It could be rough over there. The Dolphins are a nice team, but they clearly said that they are breaking it down to basics with their off season moves (Vontae and Marshall out, Tannehill in). They also have few playmakers (put your hand down Davone Bess, you don’t count).

 
 

AFC South:

Texans 11-5

Titans 7-9

Jags 6-10

Colts 3-13

The Texans win a weak division easily, somewhat because they are good but mostly because each of the other three teams will spend the year learning how to play and win and will be very dangerous in 2013. Warning to the Texans now: I forsee a clear future where they win this division now, but are 4^th in 2013. Andre is getting older, Foster never stays fully healthy, and the defensive stars are gone. Locker, Gabbert, and especially Luck are coming for you Houston. Just not this year.

 

AFC West:

Chiefs 9-7

Chargers 9-7

Raiders 8-8

Broncos 6-10

I have been simming out mini seasons for many teams since I cracked open my copy of Madden 13. I have played almost every team and played against many. And I really like the Chiefs. I don’t want to like them, they have Matt Cassell still playing quarterback for them after all. But their skill positions are solid with the addition of Hillis and the return of JCharles, even if he is only 90% of what he was. The Chiefs also played hard last year despite the Tyler Palko Experience, and losing so many players due to injury. I remember the great game they played in taking down the Pack. The Chargers will start slow (more than likely), get hurt (already there), and go through organizational trama (Norv!), so while they are good, I like the Chiefs to win this. The Raiders I dismiss because they have Carson Palmer. The Broncos….are just not a good team. I would like Peyton to be decent, I really would. But adjusted DVOA says they were a 5.8 win team last year, not an 8 win team. The lost Tebow and Dawkins, and added Peyton. Nice swap overall, but not even to propel them up and out of the basement of this division. Whether he gets hurt or not is almost immaterial. He is terrible outside anyways, and the team surrounding him isn’t good.

NFC East:

Giants 10-6

Eagles 9-7

Cowboys 9-7

Ethnic Slurs 6-10

I really don’t know here. This is a slugging match. I think the Giants win this division because they have the least crap going on behind the scenes, can run and throw, and can rush the passer. I trust them to be decent and consistent. The Cowboys are starting off well, but we all know that can’t stick. They have injury concerns, and drama behind the scenes. The Eagles I just don’t trust. Vick gets older and older, and will get hurt even more. I like Foles but that isn’t a great backup situation. McCoy cannot replicate what he just did, neither can Babin and Trent Cole. Washington will be okay, but they have Shanahan and that limits them. Their secondary scares me. Also, this blog will continue the tradition of ignoring their “nickname”, as it is an ethnic slur and really needs to be changed. 2012 people, we are in the year 2012. I swear karma (and okay, their owner), keep them artificially down year after year when at some point they should be good.

 
 

NFC North:

Packers 12-4

Bears 11-5

Lions 11-5

Vikings 5-11

The Packers are built to rock the regular season, no doubt about it. We’ll get to my post season picks for them in a minute. The Bears I think will be very good with a healthy Cutler and Forte. It is too bad about Johnny Knox, but the reuniting of Cutler with Marshall should be awesome for fantasy owners and the Bears in real life. The Lions will continue to be awesome, and I love the prediction I read on ESPN, “Titus Young and Calvin Johnson combine for over 3000 yards, the first duo to do that since Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce”. The Vikings actually aren’t bad, but two things stand in their way. First, they play in the toughest division, perhaps in sports right now. Second, their health. They will need to play into shape and good health, and probably just won’t be able to get to a point where they are serious competitors in the division. Maybe next year Vikings.

 
 

NFC South:

Saints 11-5

Falcons 10-6

Bucs 6-10

Panthers 6-10 

A nice division. I was ready to give it to the Falcons all the way through the summer, but the vibe around the Saints is not what I expected. It is like the 2007 Pats after Spygate. I smell a tremendous “eff you” season coming from Drew Brees and company. At the very least, I sense a Madden like aggressiveness and desperation on every play. Brees may legitimately press for 6000 yards passing. The fact that the Saints suspensions were overturned recently is telling me that I am right. The Falcons are solid and do well, but because of the North division probably don’t make the playoffs. They do shift into a passing team however. The Bucs learn to play together this year, and the Panthers take some steps forward (Cam works out some kinks) while they take many others back (OL injuries, Steve Smith slows down, etc).

 

NFC West:

Cardinals 9-7

Seahawks 8-8

49ers 7-9

Rams 4-12

The Rams are just immediately out. Injury concerns, new system, new coach, complete lack of talent. They have nothing in terms of receivers at all, and let’s not talk about the run defense. The Seahawks have overachieved for a few years now, and have a rookie at QB. There is no way Lynch repeats what he did either, so despite their good defense I think they fall short. So, I moved onto the Cards and the Niners. I took the team with no QB over the team that was a muffed punt from the Superbowl. But hear me out.  The Cards defense is legitimate. They have Patrick Peterson, who was the best non QB in the entire NFL last year in terms of value added to team wins. Larry Fitzgerald is still Larry Fitzgerald. And Skelton probably better than Kevin Kolb. He won most of his starts last year, and there is something to that. I like a lot of their pieces, and somehow, they pull off a division win. And an immediate first round exit.

   

Playoff Predictions:

AFC Teams: Pats, Texans, Ravens, Chiefs, WC Bills, WC Bengals

NFC Teams: Giants, Packers, Saints, Cards, WC Bears, WC Lions

AFC Title Game: Ravens over Pats. Should have happened last year, did happen two years ago. Flacco takes the last big step forward and becomes a Pro Bowl Quarterback this year.

NFC Title Game: Bears over Packers. I think this matchup may happen in the second round, not the title game. However, this pick more represents the fact that I think these are the NFC’s two best teams. And while the Packers may be better I like how the Bears play them year in and out. They can beat Green Bay, know it, and will apply the Giants gameplan against them.

Super Bowl picks: Bears over Ravens. For the third straight year, an NFC wild card makes the Super Bowl to face an established AFC divisional winner. And for the third straight game a tough game plan and some tough throws from a strong armed quarterback wins the game. Ladies and gentleman, that’s right, Jay Cutler wins the Super Bowl. The Bears have a solid defense, a new weapon in Brandon Marshall, and great special teams. Devin Hester may be involved.

 

Statistical Picks:

Passing Leader: Drew Brees, almost certainly. The Pats and Packers will compete in this race, but they will both have their QBs sitting out games near the end. And Drew Brees is on a “screw you all” campaign as Sean Payton sends him instructions via a fake yahoo email account. Brees might get close to 6000 yards. A darkhorse candidate for this would be Matt Ryan.

 

Rushing Leader: I’m going to go with Ray Rice here. Foster is already hurt, I don’t  believe fully in McCoy, Chris Johnson has a rookie QB, MoJo isn’t going to get full carries for a while so there aren’t many choices left. Even Forte, who I love, will split carries with Michael Bush. DeMarco Murray is a dark horse choice.

Receiving Leader: Calvin Johnson, the easy pick. But talent + opportunity would be hard to fight. And the other candidates (Jennings, White, Welker) have competitors on their own teams. Outside shot at this is AJ Green, he’ll get enough shots at it.

 

Rookie of the Year, offense: I am going to go with Doug Martin, on pure opportunity. Luck and Griffin almost cancel out.

 

Rookie of the Year, defense: Morris Claiborne, if for no other reasons than he will get a few picks on national TV and that will do it.

 

Player of the Year, offense: Drew Brees, on pure production. He might deserve MVP, but due to Bountygate, that will not happen.

Player of the Year, defense: Patrick Peterson. I think he has like 7 INTs, 75 tackles, 3 sacks, and 3 return TDs this year. Which, okay, technically wouldn’t count into DPOY discussion, but you know it would anyways.

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers. Boring, but it is the most sensible answer. Drew Brees is going to make this interesting, but I really think the commissioner’s office would fight to make sure no Saints takes home MVP this year. Rodgers will guide them to a lot of victories and have great numbers. Maybe Brady lights it up so much he makes a case for it, but he’s been there twice. A Darkhorse is hard to identify, but I could see a scenario where Calvin flourishes, they lose Stafford for a few games, and Calvin takes it up a notch. That might earn him some votes. But that would be really hard to do. It might require 1800 yards and 20 TDs.

 

 

And now, very truncated..... 
 

Week 1 Picks:

ATL -2.5 over KC. KC is a nice team, but Atlanta is a solid team and KC will be working in multiple players just recovered from ACL tears and also new corners.
 

BUF +3 over NYJ. Stage one of the NYJ meltdown occurs here. Buffalo burns the Jets big.

CHI -9.5 over IND. Luck is a nice player, but most rookies QBs lose their first game, especially against good teams while helming a bad one. Bears win big on a couple of defensive TDs.

 

MIN -3.5 over JAX. The Vikings win a slugfest, and the matchup of the good Vikings pass rush versus the bad Jags O-line is enough for them to pull it out.

HOU -12.5 over MIA. The Texans easily take this game, though the 12.5 is high. See the CHI-IND game as an example of an explanation why.

 

NE -4.5 over TEN. Yeah, why is this a 4.5 point line? I just don’t get it. Young QB versus Belichick. I see 38-10 written all over this.

 

SD -1 over OAK. Yuck. Norv versus Carson. More talent and discipline elsewhere gives the Chargers this W.

 

BAL -6.5 over CIN. Baltimore just outmatches them, though AJ Green manages to have a nice game.

 

PIT -1 over DEN. I just really dislike the Broncos, no explosion there. Might be like a 13-10 game though.

 

GB -5 over SF. I solidly see a double digit win by the Packers here. The 49ers just cannot keep up.

 
ARI -1 over SEA. Slugfest, but Fitzgerald helps them pull away. Might be time for one of those game changing Patrick Peterson plays too…

TB -1 over CAR. Balance and discipline helps contain Cam, who really struggled down the stretch last year.

 

NO -9 over WAS. Saints rolls Washington as they release 8 months of pent up, pissed off emotion. I wouldn’t want to be Washington in this game.

 

PHI -9.5 over CLE. I don’t like Philly, but Cleveland is pathetic. Brandon Weedon is involved.

 

DET -9.5 over STL. STL cannot score. DET scores well. Questions? Thank you and drive through.

 

 

Record last week (referencing my Super Bowl pick):

Straight Up: 0-1

By Spread: 0-1

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 389-197
By Spread: 320-273

Enjoy everyone, and happy football!

MIKE