2011 NBA Finals Prediction

Finals Prediction

Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami HEAT

The Series Facts: Rematch of 06 Finals, which Miami famously won after Dallas went up 2-0 and minutes away from 3-0. Wade was MVP of that series, posting one of the most ridiculously PERs of all time in a Finals Series. Series is remembered as one of Shaq’s last dominant years, and also filled with possible referee interference.

First time in 12 years there will be a Finals series without Shaq, Kobe, or Duncan in it. In fact, we may have just closed an era in that regard.

In the last twelve years only 3 teams have represented the West, all multiple times. Lakers, Spurs, Mavericks.

There are 3 MVP trophies in this series, and multiple runner ups.

Miami has home court, but because of the Finals format it is 2-3-2 instead of the familiar 2-2-1-1-1. This means the 3 straight home games for Dallas are crucial to momentum and their chances.

The History: The Mavericks lost in the aforementioned 06 Finals, but that was 5 years ago. Only two players on each team were there then. Dirk and Wade are the important ones, but they have no specific animosity or history other than that series. Jason Terry and Udonis Haslem are the others. While both are nice side players and among the best 6^th men around, they are not superstars. The teams are totally different, with different philosophies. The HEAT were a grind it out team with Shaq in the middle, now they are the running athletic team. The Mavs were run and gun, but now have evolved to a funneling to a defensive center and having offensive efficiency under Jason Kidd.

This year provides perhaps the most clear matchup comparison. The Mavs won both matchups, though they were earlier in the year.

The Prediction: Mavs in 6. I think the Mavs take one of two at Miami, then 2 of 3 at home before closing it out in game 6. This shouldn't surprise anyone. I said a month ago the winner of Lakers-Mavs would win the Finals, and I am sticking to it.

The Reasons:

Clearly, the HEAT are more athletically talented team, but I am picking the Mavericks because of some clear advantages they have.

Coaching – Yes, Rick pisses people off occasionally. But he is one of the best Xs and Os coaches out there. And no, I don’t trust Coach Spo.

Clutch shooting – Wade is banged up, and while Lebron has played well late in the last series, I just don’t trust him in crunch time. Dirk has proven time and again he is money in the bank late in games. I’ll take him every day of the week.

Road Games – Miami is much better at home than on the road. The Mavericks are awesome on the road and it is impossible to faze them. I can see the Mavs stealing 2 games in Miami easily.

Mavs weaknesses – The Mavericks’ weaknesses actually make me think they will win this series. They have trouble with quick point guards, but Miami doesn’t make use of those. They don’t get penetration points on offense but Miami would limit that anyways. Miami has a lot of its advantages taken away defensively. The Mavs won’t try to out muscle them or drive to get and-1s. This won’t be Chicago all over again. The Mavs will be able to do most of the things they normally do, while Chicago couldn't.

Health Status - The Mavs have had more time off in the playoffs than the HEAT, even if it is only a day here and there. They are healthy sans Roddy B who isn't playing anyways. Wade is hurt, even if he won't admit it. Chalmers was hurt, Haslem isn't 100 percent healthy, and Bosh and James have logged major minutes even if they aren't injured.

Continuity – Miami is brand new. They have only been playing together for 8 months. The Mavs, team of a mid season trade each year, have actually been together for a while now. They did not make a move this deadline other than picking up Peja for nothing. They know each other, and that matters this late in the season.

Experience – Both teams have finals experience, but by far the Mavs have more players with playoff experience all over the roster. Marion, Peja, and Terry want their rings badly, and know this may be their last chance. Kidd and Dirk know the stakes. I trust the Mavs' experience in this situation.

PF – Matchup wise, you initially get a 50-50 split when setting up the positions. Miami gets a win at SF and SG, with James and Wade over Marion and Terry. Dallas gets a win at PG and C, with Kidd/Barea and Chandler/Haywood over Bibby/Chalmers and Joel Anthony/Z. The difference as I see it comes down to PF. Dirk vs. Bosh looks decent on paper, but in reality it is a walk off win for Dirk. Bosh has to give 75% of whatever Dirk gives for Miami to win. I see Dirk throwing up a 27-10. I see Bosh putting up 15-8. So, Dallas wins.

Karma – I just cannot believe that a team built in such a hurry, with no thought to the two most important positions, with a younger coach, with a banged up star, and a supposed third star with a 50% chance at breaking under the pressure can win the Finals. The HEAT celebrated before the seasons started with a parade. Lebron quit last year in the playoffs. Quit. Flat out, watch the tape. I just cannot reward that with a title. The ghosts of the 06 Finals will come up as well, and the Mavs deserve a few key calls going their way. I think that they will get them.

And this means, yes, I am picking against the two best athletic players in the league. Yes, I am picking the jump shooting team against the defensive team. Yes, I am picking the team with 78 year old Jason Kidd at Point Guard. And yes, I am picking the 7 foot 1 inch German to be the Finals MVP. Here we go. 

BLISS

NBA 2011 Conference Finals

Conference Finals

It is hard to imagine that without the Spurs, Celtics, or Lakers the Conference Finals could be that exciting. If I told you that none of the Cinderella teams made it either (Memphis, Atlanta), and you’d say we’d probably be heading for another Piston-like championship with low TV ratings. Not so this year.

In the West, we have Dirk going for his ring with the dominating Mavs against the rising Kevin Durant, gold medal winning darling of America. In the East we have the MVP and Coach of the Year versus the Heatles and their parade, with perhaps the two most athletically talented players in the whole league.

In the playoffs overall we still have the top 3 players (Durant, Lebron, Wade), the hardest to defend (Dirk), and the MVP (Rose). We have a ton of young talent (Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Rose, Noah) and many established vets looking for that career crowning championship ring (Dirk, Terry, Kidd, Marion, Peja, Bibby, Juwan Howard, Big Z). This will be fun.

The Matchup: Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Storyline: Such an intriguing series. A year or a month ago I would have told you I would take the Thunder. I am not sure who covers Durant from the Mavs. Of course, I said that about Kobe too. But now some things have changed. First, the Mavs have a great combination of being both hot and rested. They have a ton of talent. Jeff Green would have been a great matchup for Dirk, and now he’s gone. The Thunder are tired and barely got through Memphis. With respect to the Grizz, it shouldn’t have taken them 7 games to win that series. And the Mavs took out the Champs in 4.

I also think the Mavs will be able to entice Russell Westbrook to do the same thing they enticed Kobe to do: see 40 pts written all over Jason Kidd’s face and forget about everyone else for a while. This is the first issue for the Thunder. The second is that I have no idea who covers Dirk. Ibaka is nice, but I don’t know about that. And I love Nick Collison, but any minutes he plays against Dirk or even Tyson Chandler he will get killed in. The third issue is perhaps the biggest: Kendrick Perkins is nearly useless here. Dirk can out-quick him but more importantly, the Mavs play with jump shooters and Tyson Chandler barely ever touching the ball offensively. Perkins is negated in that equation.

The Pick: Mavs in 5. Probably not a surprise considering my previous paragraph but this should be short and decisive. To win, the Thunder would have to channel a ton of 35 points games out of Durant, and even then it may not matter.

I am staying with my pick of Dallas to win the Finals, and will further say that the West will be taking the title this year, no matter if OKC could pull the upset. I like both teams that much more over the remaining East teams.

The Matchup: Chicago Bulls vs. Miami HEAT

The Storyline: 1 v 2. As much as Celtics-HEAT was exciting, this is almost better. The Bulls are young, built through the draft and able to grow together, and play well as a team. They have clearly defined player roles, a great defensive scheme and offensive order. Their coach is consistent and a perfect mix of youth and experience. The Bulls are rough, tough, and will hit you in the mouth.

The HEAT, well, I almost don’t need to say it. Athletic, exciting, cruising at the right time, Wade going for another ring and establishing a claim to best current player. Lebron trying to shake his demons and make himself rise above the title of “best athletic player”, which at this point is almost said as an insult to his clutch skills and leadership (for good reason).

The Pick: HEAT in 6. They are more athletic, the Bulls don’t seem to have 5^th gear, and Rose is nicked up more than we think. The HEAT will close it out at home. The key as so many are saying is Boozer. If Boozer throws up a 18-12 in the series, they can and probably will win. But I just don’t believe in him, and thus, HEAT.

The Bulls are in a tough position as they desperately need Kyle Korver’s shooting. But Wade will burn him, so Brewer has to play. But that puts pressure on Rose to score even more, leading to yet more offensive inefficiency out of him. So I think the HEAT pull this out. But, I hope I am wrong.

And yes, I know these picks lead up to a Mavs-HEAT 2006 rematch, which I expect Dallas to win (just like the last time should have gone). And nothing would make me happier.

BLISS