NFL 2013 Week 4 Predictions

Ravens -3 over Bills, 20-14

-It seems the Bills aren’t good.

Bengals -5 over Browns, 27-19

-I am pretty sure the Bengals are good, and the Browns just beat an also bad Vikings team and we are about to overvalue them and Trent Richardson’s Ewing theory.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Seahawks -2.5 over Texans, 24-13

-Seahawks giving less than 2.5 over a mediocre team with Matt Schaub and an over the hill Arian Foster/dinged up Andre Johnson? Hell yes.

Colts -8.5 over Jaguars, 30-13

-Easiest pick. Luck could pile up stats like crazy here.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Vikings +3.5 over Steelers, 20-17

-I’m just taking the points and Peterson. Steelers shouldn’t be favored under any circumstances.

Titans -3 over Jets, 20-12

-I still don’t particularly like Jake Locker, but the overall team talent here is really different. And 2-1 just screams “regression” to me.

Cardinals +2.5 over Bucs, 17-16

-Glennon versus Peterson/Matheiu.

Raiders +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-17

-I am taking any and all points against the Ethnic Slurs this season.

Cowboys -2 over Chargers, 27-24

-Cowboys could actually win a game they should, putting a pretty strong hold on their division by week 5 (strangely). I mean, I think the Cowboys are capable of this.

Pats +3 over Falcons, 31-28

-Taking the Pats for me isn’t automatic, though it is close. When the Pats are getting points, however, that is pretty automatic. As much as the Pats aren’t whole right now, the Falcons really aren’t whole. And I think Gronk returning changes a LOT.

Saints -6.5 over Fins, 38-30

-So let’s talk Tannehill. I really love his evolution. He has shown everything about developing into an elite talent. The game winning drive against Atlanta was picture perfect. So I have high hopes for this guy…..but not this week. The Saints are a far more legit 3-0 than Miami, as much as I think both find their way into the post season. The Saints found their scoring vibe last week, and won’t let up in this one. Also, good luck covering Jimmy Graham right now.

Record last week:
Straight Up: 6-6
By Spread: 7-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 24-15
By Spread: 21-18

Record last year:
Straight Up: 155-87
By Spread: 126-110

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 558-294  
By Spread: 464-394

NFL 2013 Week 3 Predictions

Packers -2.5 over Bengals, 31-27
-My Super Bowl prediction for the teams and this is about my prediction for the score as well.

Texans -2.5 over Ravens, 29-23
-I have far more respect for Flacco and the Ravens, but the injuries are tough right now.

Vikings -6 over Browns, 24-6
-Not enough points in the world would it get me to select the Browns. Brian Hoyer, anyone? Let’s trot out Ryan Lindley at that point.

Lions +2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 33-24
-I know, the Lions have never won in DC. Basically, forever. But, it changes here because the Washington Professional Sports franchise is not a very good team. Megatron is going to have an amazing game.

Rams +4.5 over Cowboys, 21-20
-It would help both teams’ case if they could run the ball, but neither can. And both pass rush well. But, the Rams to me are the sound team in all phases and I’ll take the 4.5. Plus….SAM BRADFORD EVERYONE!

Giants PK over Panthers, 27-19
-PK! PK? PK. “Shakes head”. One of these teams is SO much better than the other it isn’t funny.

Bears -3 over Steelers, 24-13
-3 points! 3 points? 3 points. “Shakes head”. One of these teams is SO much better than the other it isn’t funny.
-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Saints -6.5 over Cards, 30-22
-Cards are feisty, but the Saints are going to get it all on track here. Good corners, but who covers Jimmy Graham?

Seahawks -19 over Jags, 27-6
-Yes I am aware that is a crazy line. Are you aware of the Jacksonville Jaguars? You know, the NFL Europe team specializing in safeties?
-Safest Eliminator Pick

Pats -6.5 over Bucs, 24-13
-The teacher takes down the student. And Schiano postures for the Texas job. Kembrell Thompkins catches more than 50% of his targets this week.

Colts +10.5 over 49ers, 24-29
-49ers win, enraged at last week. But 10.5 is a big number, and I think I am going to institute an Andrew Luck rule: “Never bet against Andrew Luck getting more than a touchdown”.

Broncos -14 over Raiders, 31-14
-Just an easy straight up win, maybe even more so than the Seahawks. The line is high and I would hesitate to go with that straight up, especially if it drifts to -15, -15.5. Two team tease with the Seahawks….



Record last week:
Straight Up: 8-4
By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:
Straight Up: 18-9
By Spread: 14-13

Record last year:
Straight Up: 155-87
By Spread: 126-110

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 552-288
By Spread: 457-389

NFL 2013 Week 2 Predictions

Chargers +8.5 over Eagles, 20-27

-That’s just a lot of points to cover.

Ravens -6.5 over Browns, 24-16

-Brandon Weeden involved? Brandon Weeden involved.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Texans -10 over Titans, 27-13

-Titans aren’t good. Jake Locker is quickly joining a group that needs to get together for drinks and enjoy their starts while they can. (Weeden, Locker, Ponder, Gabbert, and captain of the group, Josh Freeman).

Rams +6 over Falcons, 24-20

-Injuries man, injuries. The Rams are legit anyways. Daryl Richardson is a sneaky play this week. I am playing him over Gore in two leagues.

Pack -6.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-20

-Strongly under consideration for my Eliminator pick of the week. Based on what we saw last week, and the fact that there is zero chance Aaron Rodgers is letting them go 0-2, this should be an easy win for GB.

Cowboys +3.5 over Chiefs, 22-24

-The Cowboys lose painfully in the last minute, but it is good enough to cover.

Bears -6 over Vikings, 27-16

-The secret is out…the Vikings aren’t very good.

Saints -3.5 over Bucs, 34-17

-What games were everyone watching last week for this to be a 3.5 point line? The Saints beat a good Falcons team…and the Bucs got humiliated by the Jets. This could be a romp.

Lions -2 over Cards, 37-24

-I actually have respect for how well the Cards played last week, but I don’t know if that is repeatable, especially if Fitz is limited. The Lions on the other hand are this good, and could have scored 60 points last week if not for stupid issues and random events.

-Strategic Eliminator Pick

Raiders -6 - Jags +6, eww. That’s it, no pick, just an icky feeling. They should black this game out on ESPN’s scrolling bottom line.

Giants +4.5 over Broncos, 31-30

-Just a feeling.

Seahawks -3 over 49ers, 27-19

-More than a feeling.

Bengals -7 over Steelers, 31-10

-Emotionally invested. They are my AFC pick after all. Plus, you know, the Steelers are bad AND hurt.

Record last week:
Straight Up: 10-5 (66.7%)
By Spread: 8-7 (53.3%)

Record last year:
Straight Up: 155-87 (64%)
By Spread: 126-110 (53.4%)

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 544-284 (65.7%)
By Spread: 451-383 (54.1%)

NFL 2013 Week 1 Predictions

Pats -9.5 over Bills, 34-16
-I'm not in any elimination leagues week 1, but this would be the pick. Bills only have two QBs on the roster and both are rookies. NE probably looks great and also has a chance to work out some kinks.
-Best eliminator pick

Seahawks -3 over Panthers, 30-17
-Why is this only 3.5 again? One team was this close to a Super Bowl last year and only improved, and the other retained Ron Rivera, lost their best DB in a bad secondary, and still hasn't added a second WR. Does Cam make them frisky? Absolutely. Do they win this game? No chance in hell.

Bengals +3.5 over Bears, 24-20
-I foresee a lot of 4 point victories for the Bengals this year. That's a compliment, I swear! I actually like this Bengals team, and while I have historically been a Bears supporter, they are in transition and the Bengals in ascension. Plus I want to see if Cutler can play well or if Brandon Marshall is even fully healthy. Geno Adkins should dominate a bad Bears OLine here.

Browns -1 over Fins, 24-21
-I have both these teams pegged for strong, developmental years at or just above .500. But the Browns seem to be just a little further along. Norv seems to have the offense lined up to be much better and the Dolphins' is still in the exploratory stage. Haden erases Wallace and the Browns win behind a workman performance from Richardson.

Lions -5 over Viks, 27-16
-My two big "last year's results were skewed, this year's squad will regress/progress toward the mean" franchises, and they happen to meet in week 1. I wouldn't be showing confidence in my own analysis if I didn't take the Lions here. A. Who covers Megatron? B. Christian Ponder is still being allowed to play Quarterback, right?

Can the Viks just go for a Carson Palmer-like trade for Philip Rivers and make everyone happy?

Colts -9.5 over Raiders, 31-13
-Yup. TY Hilton baby. The Colts are getting a chance here to tweak their revamped defense in a mock warmup for their schedule. They will need to use the time well.
-Most strategic eliminator selection

Chiefs -3.5 over Jags, 23-7
-So Vegas must think we all just pick by the record last year. Well, while the records say these teams were similar, the eye test shows something different. KC is taking its six Pro Bowlers and new coach into this game, while Jax still has Blaine Gabbert. Questions?

Saints -3 over Falcons, 37-31
-Falcons overachieved last year, Saints underachieved, they were close even at that point, and the Saints are vastly improved on defense. I mean, that isn't staying much because adding me at safety would have improved them. Kenny Vaccaro should do even better than me though: I think he will be a special safety. Even a ten spot jump in defense will propel them to 11 wins. They start on that path right here at home by winning a shootout with the Falcons who are limited by a hurt Roddy White. Also, as unpopular as this statement will be, I think this is the start of underperforming seasons by aging Ste-Jax and Tony Gonzalez.

Bucs -3.5 over Jets, 23-6
-I don't like the Bucs. Let's make that really clear. But, The J-E-T-S Jets are really B-A-D. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets don’t score.

Titans +7.5 over Steelers, 16-20
-Steelers probably still win but I don't see many blowouts for them this year, even at home. I don't like the Titans much either, but the Steelers have real issues.

Packers +4.5 over 49ers, 33-24
-The 49ers' defense showed cracks at the end of last year, and I can't imagine the Packers didn't spend all off season figuring out how to stop the running QBs of the league. The Packers have the making of a top 10 defense at least and that more than anything else propels them to a win here. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is a tough, competitive, proud son of a gun and I don’t know how he doesn’t take offense to what happened last year.

Rams -4.5 over Cards, 23-17
Bradford starts off his surprisingly solid year with a thorough win over the Cards, who may be decent this year but haven't gelled yet. Givens starts his surprise breakout season amidst his more fêted offensive compatriots.

Cowboys -3 over Giants, 33-27
-Whatever the over is here, take it. I stand by my pick of the Giants to win this division, but right now the Cowboys are (somehow) the more cohesive group. They are healthy, and know their identity. The Giants have questions at RB and WR with new faces/situations/injury concerns. So take Dallas in a high scoring affair.

Eagles +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 23-21
-This is pretty much a stay away. But, first, RG3 has to take some time to get acclimated and get his feet wet. Second, Chip Kelly's offense, regardless of whether or not it is successful long term, will probably surprise its first few opponents. So a narrow victory and definitely take the points.

Texans -3.5 over Chargers, 27-10
-The Chargers are going to be BAD. Texans may sit Foster though if they build a quick lead, so I wouldn't even start him. I expect the offense to be a decent mess organizationally for the Bolts, and the defense to show its lack of talent overall.



Record last week (Superbowl):
Straight Up: 1-0
By Spread: 1-0

Record last year:
Straight Up: 145-82
By Spread: 118-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 534-279
By Spread: 443-376

2013 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Playoff Picture:

NFC Seeds: 1. Packers, 2. Saints, 3. Seahawks, 4. Giants, 5. 49ers, 6. Lions

AFC Seeds: 1. Patriots, 2. Bengals, 3. Colts, 4. Chiefs, 5. Texans, 6. Ravens

Round 1: Seahawks over Lions, 49ers over Giants, Colts over Ravens, Texans over Chiefs

-Lions remain too one dimensional, Giants are flawed, Colts flip the script from last year, Alex Smith out Matt Schaubs Mat Schaub in the playoffs.

Round 2: Packers over 49ers, Saints over Seahawks, Pats over Texans, Bengals over Colts

-Packers figure out the running QB thing, Saints get the home seed and that makes the difference with Seattle in an amazing game, Pats continue to own theTexans, Bengals roll over Colts because no one can cover AJ Green.

Title Games: Packers over Saints, Bengals over Patriots

-The Packers-Saints game is always entertaining, but the Packers are better overall. The Bengals have a ton of talent at key spots and will out tough the Patriots.

Superbowl: Packers over Bengals

-Yeah, Andy Dalton isn’t beating Aaron Rodgers.

Awards

MVP: Tom Brady

-You win the MVP by overcoming odds, adversity, or exceeding expectations. Brady will do his normal thing with the team winning the normal amount of games, but people will fawn over this because of what has gone on with the team in the offseason.

OPY: Drew Brees

-I think 5500 yards and 50 TDs is in play. Brees has somehow never won the MVP and could be a good candidate for that as well. 

DPY: Luke Kuechly

-Luke is going to rack up an insane amount of tackles. 175 tackles, 5 picks, 5 sacks, 15 pressures, 10 deflections is in range and would earn this award.  

ORY: Eddie Lacy

-Based on pure opportunity.

DRY: Kenny Vaccaro

-The Saints are going to allow a lot of completions for Kenny to clean up. 

COY: Pete Carroll

-I would love Sean Payton but there is no way the NFL would let that happen. The Seahawks will have a great group effort and Pete Carroll, somehow, walks away with COY.