East:
2.
Cavs over 1. Celtics in 6 games
-I oscillated
between 5 and 6, but ended at 6 because the Cavs will be at home for game 6
instead of 5. I think Cleveland splits in Boston, gets both at home, then loses
5 before beating Boston in 6. Cleveland is just a far better team. Their three
point shooting from every position is better than Boston, and Boston is going
to get eviscerated on the boards. I love Horford in almost any scenario, but I honestly
don’t know how he can be effective here like he was in the first two rounds.
Unlike Gortat, Love and Thompson are mobile enough to follow him out to the
perimeter, move their feet enough to stay with his drives, and the other will
still be under the rim to rebound. I actually think IT will do okay because of
the lack of rim protection for the Cavs, but Lebron is going to be guarded by
Crowder and (gulp) Jaylen Brown who won’t be able to hold him. This is a better
matchup for Isaiah though, because Avery will surely be on Kyrie and IT can
hide maybe on Shumpert, Korver, etc. The Celtics 4 spot is going to get exposed
though, and 5 games is well within reason. The Celtics only chance to win the
series is that they are sharp while Cleveland got rusty (unlikely), and their
bench kills Cleveland’s (possible). It also feels like Marcus Smart versus JR
Smith ends in someone doing something stupid.
West:
1.
Warriors over 2. Spurs in 5 games
-I
know game 1 already happened, but I had this before. I hate the NBA starting
one round before all the games in the last happened. The Spurs had their
chance, and both lost it and Kawhi. The Jedi Octopus is likely to miss game 2,
which means >95% chance Golden State now blasts them off the court and takes
command of the series. Golden State worked off its rust, and the scary part is
Klay is due for some better games in a row. This could be a sweep, but I trust
in Pop to get at least one, probably game 3. This is just too much for young
folks like Simmons and Anderson to really hang with each game, or Manu to keep
up productive minutes. Patty Mills is also going to get taken advantage of.
Pop, I love Gasol too, but I don’t think he can play in this series if you want
a chance to win.
Nothing
really has changed long term. 538 has the Dubs at 84% to win the title, and
even if Iggy is more hurt than a game to game status I’d say that’s right. It’s
almost unfair because the playoffs are getting good with good ends to SA-HOU
and WAS-BOS, but likely Golden State will walk away with the title fairly
easily.
