11.5 months later….it is the Spurs and HEAT again. It wasn’t
a wasted year per se, but the expected Final Four teams were the last 4 teams
standing. I did pick the Spurs in 5
over the Pacers at the beginning of the year, and still feel good about my
thought process. Spurs in 6
seems more logical now, but a similar thought to where I started. Honestly, I
feel better about the pick now that when I made it 6 months ago.
Many think that the HEAT had a more impressive run to the
Finals this year, but that isn’t true. The HEAT got by Charlotte, Brooklyn, and
Indiana. All decent teams, but not elite and not in their best shape. Their
adjusted win margin is about +7.1. The Spurs had to beat the Mavs (who would
have gone to the ECF were things switched), Blazers, and Thunder (their nemesis
and horrid matchup). Their adjusted win margin is +8.2. The HEAT got scored on
well in stretches by the inept Pacers. I think the Spurs have a few absolute
masterpiece showcases on offense in this series, and can also gut out some
other games.
Also, some have pointed out that the Spurs played 3 more
games than the HEAT this postseason and may be tired. First, the idea that the
rested team wins more is actually wrong. Stats show when there is a 4 games
played or less discrepancy in playoff teams for the Finals, the team that
played the MOST games won the title just under 73% of the time. It seems the
experience, rhythm, and reps mean more than rest. And it will be only a day
difference in rest since their last game, which helps Parker’s ankle and pretty
much no one else on either team.
Oh, and the HEAT are actually older on average than the
Spurs, and only the Spurs have players in the 18-23 age range who play. Sure
Duncan and Manu together qualify for retirement benefits, but the whole point
is the team plays a deep bench and spreads minutes. They will be ready.
The truth is the Spurs were under a minute from winning a
title last year. They probably were better than Miami; Miami just had the best
player. The Spurs actually outscored them in that series. It didn’t help that
Tony Parker was hurt. Miami was more clutch and a bit more athletic. The Spurs
system did beat them, it just didn’t bury them.
So the question of this series is, what’s the difference
since last year? Well, the Spurs got better and the HEAT got worse. Wade
continues to decline. His lack of shooting actually clogs the lane in pretty
bad ways, and the fact he cannot be explosive each and every touch limits his
total effectiveness. Battier is a beaten shell of the guy he was. He has
already signed on for an announcing gig in college hoops for goodness sake.
Allen is perhaps 90% of himself from last year. I have no idea what happened to
Cole/Chalmers, they have so little impact. Lebron is about the same and so is
Bosh. The HEAT have enough to win, very clearly. Mostly because of Lebron. But
I don’t think they pull this one off.
Parker/Manu/Duncan are about the same players they were last
year. Scarily, Parker may be HEALTHIER than he was for that series last year.
Leonard is better in pretty much every way.
As long as he is aggressive on offense, his impact will be gigantic
(darkhorse candidate for Finals MVP). Marco Belinelli should have a great
impact, and he wasn’t there last year. Mills was there last year, but he was in
no way this involved. He can match Gary Neal’s overall shooting impact, but run
the team far more dynamically as a PG. Mills makes me comfortable in a Spurs
pick even if Parker was to be sidelined by his ankle issues.
Duncan can do even better than last year on the interior
defense of the HEAT. Bosh has gotten worse defensively and Chris Anderson isn’t
the same player. I’m pretty sure I could post up Udonis Haslem at this point.
The Spurs PG are still good, and the HEAT PGs are declining for some reason. But
I believe the main point here is the Spurs will blast the HEAT in the battle of
benches, which will swing this series.
So, Spurs in 6.
Duncan walks off, and maybe Pop does too. Duncan does it with an MVP.
