2017 NFL Week 4 Predictions

Week 4 Predictions

Packers -7 over Bears, 27-16

-Bears had a great win last week, but it took a huge effort and a lot of circumstances. Packers thrive on this matchup and need the divisional win. However, do I have both Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen going this week in fantasy? Yes, yes I do.

Saints -3 over Fins, 24-20

-Fins may not be good. Saints scrapping for their lives. Willie Snead return game!

Falcons -8 over Bills, 30-16

-Bills’ defense is their strong point, but this is a Atlanta we are talking about on offense. Easy two TD win. If McCoy doesn’t get anything going here, I’d start to worry on that topic.

Ravens +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Steelers don’t look right, and the Ravens can’t be as back as they were last week. Just taking the points for a close one.

Bengals -3 over Browns, 20-13

-Browns has kept games tight, but the Bengals came alive last week and probably complete this game to get on the board.

Rams +6 over Cowboys, 17-16

-Cowboys still look vulnerable to me, and Rams are there and ready. I am going to continue my faith in the Rams at least one more week. Rams better cleanup that long ball defense though.

Titans -1.5 over Texans, 26-20

-Texans are pretty decent, but the Titans are rounding into the team I thought they would be. Murray was the only real question mark, and his big game makes me think this Titans squad should be a juggernaut.

Lions +1.5 over Viks, 28-20

-I am holding faith with my evaluation of the Lions being good. I also evaluate Case Keenum has only so many competent games in him, so thus the pick. That was a tough one for the Lions to drop last week, but they will start to win divisional games and be just fine.

Pats -9 over Panthers, 38-17

-The rematch of that really underrated 2013 game, I think this one goes the other way. The Panthers defense is good, but won’t create pressure like the Texans did. And the Panthers offense is not good right now. Benjamin is banged up, Olsen is out, and Cam is not right. Are we looking at Dolphins era Dante Culpepper?

Jags -3 over Jets, 20-12

-There’s your one win Jets. Jags should grind and pound this out.

Cards -6.5 over 49ers, 24-10

-Good game Niners, but the Cards should take care of business here easily.

Eagles +1 over Chargers, 24-21

-I almost feel bad for the Chargers for this 3 point loss.

Giants +3.5 over Bucs, 21-20

-Why am I feeling Jameis throwing it to the other team a lot here? Oh right, because that is totally likely to happen.

Raiders +3 over Broncos, 23-22

-I’ll take the points in a close game, and hold the faith in Carr.

Seahawks -13 over Colts, 24-10

-The Colts have been game all year, and Seattle is weak in several places. However, this has all the marks of the game where Seattle’s defense shuts things down.

Ethnic Slurs +7.5 over Chiefs, 20-24

-The rare time I am taking the slurs, mainly because this is too many points against a team that has had a major weakness in the secondary. I don’t know what to make of Washington yet, but I am taking that win over Oakland seriously. Chiefs win, but I’ll take the cover.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 6-9

By Spread: 3-12

Record this year:

Straight Up: 23-22

By Spread: 13-31

Record in 2016: 

Straight Up: 153-93

By Spread: 129-115

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1120-631
By Spread: 917-819

2017 NFL Week 3 Predictions

Week 3 Predictions

Unburying from the early weeks each year is becoming tedious. Ugh.

Ravens -3.5 over Jaguars, 20-10

-Send our best to London! Top notch offenses. Young, healthy, precise QBs! Innovative young coaches! Or, a semi broken Flacco versus Blake still Bortling and approximately 100 runs in this game. Ravens defense is a strong start. Strong. 

Pats -13.5 over Texans, 33-16

-Pats are dominant at home versus 1^st year QBs (10-0), winning to a tune of 17 ppg. Thank you, please drive through.

Fins -6 over Jets, 24-10

-Fins take this one because clearly they are more talented, and still remain, despite having Jay Cutler on the team, the team that is trying to win. 

Eagles -6 over Giants, 26-13

-Eagles front seven is going to kill the Giants offensive line. Wentz is going to have like a 4400 yard, 29 TD season, and people are going to be confused at the end of the year. Giants might hit the panic button here.

Colts +1.5 over Browns, 16-13

-The Colts still want to be in the race this season, the Browns are fine taking that top pick again. Kizer shows he is still a rookie, and the Colts were much better last week and almost close to competent. Hilton might come out his Tolzien induced coma here.

Bucs -2.5 over Viks, 24-9

-The Bradford thing is threatening to trip the Viks entire season up. I am looking forward to the Bucs having a true test at some point soon, but it will not be this week.

Lions +3.5 over Falcons, 34-33

-Lions are my surprise team still, and there were a lot of random factors in the Falcons blowout over the Packers. Stafford continues his Matt Ryan rise. Also, OVER 50.5. Very very over.

Panthers -5.5 over Saints, 23-16

-Are the Saints a good offense? Serious question, because I don't know we can just say that out of reflex at this point and be right. I know something is wrong with Cam, but the rest of the team is just so much better than the Saints roster it isn't funny. They are going to kick the crap out of this team, and that overcomes the QB issue in Carolina.

Broncos -3 over Bills, 26-12

-How is this 3 points? I know the Broncos are boring and led by Trevor Siemian, but this is ridiculous. The Bills are not that good, and the Broncos just rolled America's team. Lay the 3 with strong cash confidence. 

Steelers -7 over Bears, 24-13

-Steelers offense hasn't been good, but wow are the Bears bad. Why didn't Trubisky play last week when it got out of hand? If LeVeon doesn't get off here, there may be a problem because it hasn't been good so far, and Ben hasn’t been awesome either. I know FootballOutsiders loves the Steelers so far, and the defensive improvement has been good, but I need to see that old offense before I have confidence.

Titans -2.5 over Seahawks, 20-17

-I am not sure the Seahawks are good. I KNOW the Seahawks offensive line isn't good. The Titans can score in multiple ways, and take this even without Corey Davis. Derrick Henry is going to own that job in a hurry even DeMarco doesn’t get healthy.

Chiefs -3 over Chargers, 27-23

-Confused how this is 3. Yes, the Chargers should not be 0-2 and lost games in a heartbreaking fashion. However what is what they do, they do it well, and they will do it again. The Chiefs are a solid team and should win another game with a strong statement. 

Packers -7.5 over Bengals, 31-13

-Packers didn't look great last week, but there were a lot of circumstances involved there. The Bengals are lifeless, and it might be time for McCarron. Packers control this to a strong win, but I think we get a big AJ Green game here.

Raiders -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 34-24

-How is this 3? Love this bet. I am not sure Washington is a good team, and Cousin hasn't exactly lit it up yet. Raiders continue to throw 30s out and win convincingly.

Cards +3.5 over Cowboys, 21-20

-There is a formula to attack the Cowboys, and the Cards can do a veritable job of copying the Broncos in this regard. They just need to move it through the air in a similar way. I think the Cards pull out a close one, again daring Dak to complete complex reads on one side of the field.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-5

By Spread: 5-10

Record this year:

Straight Up: 17-13

By Spread: 11-19

Record in 2016: 

Straight Up: 153-93

By Spread: 129-115

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1114-622
By Spread: 914-807

2017 NFL Week 2 Predictions

Week 2 Predictions

Yeah week 1 went about as well as they usually do. I’m sure week 2 will have some radical adjustment the other way, just trying to weather the storm and getting a feel for things.

Ravens -8 over Browns, 20-6

-Unwatchable game with something like 70 carries coming between West, Crowell, and Buck Allen and 30 passes from Soze and Flacco. I’m more than willing to gamble and profit on it though. Again Browns play it tough but aren’t ready, and the Ravens defense marches them forward.

Panthers -7 over Bills, 24-16

-Panthers don’t look exactly right to me, but the Bills are actively trying to not be right. McCoy’s status worries me, and as much as Cam is concerning, it is more likely he improves than he is bad enough to prevent a strong win here. 

Cards -7 over Colts, 20-7

-Cards aren’t perfect. The Colts define imperfect. Glad Brissett is getting the start, but what a mess. Blow it up Indy, accept it and move on. 

Titans -1.5 over Jags, 27-17

-This line would have been unthinkable last week. However, the Titans were the good team who lost and the Jags are the bad team who won (all titles until further notice). I’m taking the generous line before it flips to like 7 by the rematch later in the season once Blake has Bortled all over the place.

Eagles +5.5 over Chiefs, 20-23

-Strange that both teams overachieved and confidently handled superior opponents last week but the line is so large here. The Berry injury is important, and the Eagles aren’t going to let what happened to NE happen to them. KC can still win, but the line is too high to lay. I’m starting to believe in Wentz.

Pats -6 over Saints, 38-30

-It’s under 7 so I am jumping on it. I think this will be crazy high scoring, but the Pats are still the far better team and the Saints are showing signs offensive weakness. Brady has spent 10 days staring at tape and finding new ways to replace Edelman (I think Burkhead plays more of a role there). Take the over though, especially teased down to 49.

Viks +6 over Steelers, 20-24

-Was that Cleveland playing the Steelers hard, or were the Steelers a bit rusty? That Vikings win was thunderous, so I will take these points.

Bears +7 over Bucs, 20-21

-Coming off an oddly timed layoff, without Doug Martin, with new weapons to incorporate, this is an odd time to lay 7. I’ll take the team who has played a week already, just to keep it close enough to cover.

Raiders -13 over Jets, 33-7

-YES. Under 14? Please please please take all my money. Raiders romp.

Chargers -3.5 over Fins, 26-22

-Similar to Bears-Bucs, just a bit unfair that one team is in rhythm and the other is going through so much at home. In this case, the Chargers are even closer in talent to the team they are facing, who have their own instabilities as well. Cutler, you are 16 weeks from retirement.

Cowboys -2.5 over Broncos, 24-16

-At this point, it is hard to take the Broncos with their limited explosive potential on offense over any consistent team. Sorry Trevor, it’s going to take more than 3 to get me interested or confident in supporting you.

Rams -2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-17

-I have been on the Rams for a while, no reason to get off now. The McVay Bowl shows maybe that it was he and not Gruden that was more influential in the team’s success level? Something in general seems off in DC, so honestly this pick was easy for me.

Seahawks -13.5 over Niners, 26-10

-I start to feel very weird about this pick the more it drifts to and over 14 with that Seattle offensive line. However, I’m riding it for now. Um, Eddie Lacy just flat done?

Packers +3 over Falcons, 34-28

-I don’t care where it is, Rodgers getting points is almost an automatic call for me. I’m not sold Atlanta is just back where it was last year on offense either, even if they did get better on defense. Jordy and co. feast in the opening of what does seem to be a legit awesome stadium.

Lions +3 over Giants, 23-10

-No thought needed bets going forward: take the points when available versus the Giants without Odell, and take the under on Giants games. Eli’s decline along with a dearth of weapons may spoil a great Giants defense. Stafford has been awesome, and I wonder if a Matt Ryan year is coming where his prime, contract, confidence, and set up is the perfect scenario for a push in numbers mid-career.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 6-9

Record in 2016: 

Straight Up: 153-93

By Spread: 129-115

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1104-617
By Spread: 909-797

2017 NFL Week 1 Predictions

Week 1 Predictions

Let’s review last year, shall we? I have added the Super Bowl, which I got correct, into my year end stats.

Record in 2016: 

Straight Up: 153-93

By Spread: 129-115

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1097-609
By Spread: 903-788

Well, that could have been worse. I increased both lifetime marks in terms of distance from .500, but my win percentage didn’t really get any better. I will try to do better this year, and my problem tends to be these early weeks. I think I think I know more than anyone thinks they should know this year, and overthink. So, I am going to try to go simpler until more data reveals itself.

Pats -8.6 over Chiefs, 34-17

-Pats cover at home celebrating a title, both teams having suffered a major injury to an offensive player and the Chiefs still starting Alex Smith at quarterback for some reason. Also, the Chiefs have never won at Gillette, have lost 5 of 7 against NE, and Dion Lewis is still 17-0 as a Patriot with an average per game victory margin in those 17 wins of +17. Good enough for me.

Bills -9 over Jets, 17-6

-The night is dark and full of terrors. Some of them are named Peterman, Hackenberg, and McCown. McCoy gets like 35 touches and this is painful to watch on the 7^th screen at Buffalo Wild Wings.

Falcons -7 over Bears, 27-17

-What is this, the “oh, Falcons got the hangover lower the line” Vegas adjustment? Hit the 7 before it tips to .5.

Bengals -3 over Ravens, 20-16

-Home field plus unsure about the health of Flacco.

Steelers -9 over Browns, 24-10

-You are doing this right Browns, just one more year.

Cards -2 over Lions, 30-27

-I somehow have Stafford and Palmer going in multiple leagues, and also the Cards defense. No good. Cards are a more complete team, and the RB comparison is way out of whack. Also, we are starting the year off with a 2 Vegas? Way to pick a solid number and stay with it.

Texans -5.5 over Jags, 20-10

-….And then they give me 5.5. Higher Vegas, it should have been higher. Blake Bortles is intimately involved.

Raiders +2.5 over Titans, 27-24

-A lot of respect given to the Titans here. This should be an awesome game: It is the preview of my AFC Semifinals. Titans are still a growing team however and Oakland should do well throwing the ball.

Ethnic Slurs +1 over Eagles, 26-24

-No idea, taking the home team with the more established quarterback. Even if he did sign a 1 year deal because God told him to.

Rams -3.5 over Colts, 17-12

-Okay, unpopular opinion alert: The Colts should rest Luck as long as it takes. This team may not be good. Gore might be done. They are thin all over the place, and light. They have young guys not ready yet and old guys about to end who need to come off the cap. Maybe a mini reset is needed. Second unpopular opinion alert: I like Jared Goff still, and think the Rams are going to be sneaky, like 2015 Raiders, good before a leap the next year. The door still over there? Great, I’ll be over there.

Packers -3 over Seahawks, 30-23

-Can you believe the Fail Mary was 5 years ago? Or that the Seahawks somehow got another elite defense front 7 guy for little conveyance? Or that Richard Sherman is somehow still on this team? Or that Aaron Rodgers will Aaron Rodgers this game for them? Yeah, that last one I am actually easily on board with.

Panthers -5.5 over 49ers, 27-14

-It’s kind of like the Browns. One more year, doing it the right way Niners. Might need to try to develop a young QB though. Newton might not even need to push himself here, though it’ll be exciting to see Christian M and how he is used.

Giants +4 over Cowboys, 23-20

-Giants spent the offseason quickly adding defensive and offensive weapons, and the Cowboys spent it getting arrested, suspended, and not looking hard enough at natural regression for Zeke and especially Dak. Taking the points here.

Buccaneers & Fins – Best wishes to the residents of Florida and those affected by the current storm systems.

Saints +3.5 over Vikings, 30-23

-Saints love MNF, Saints love in door facilities, Saints had Brees spending the offseason cooking up new ways to get randos 1000 yards so he’ll get to 5K again. I also still don’t trust Sam Bradford.

Chargers +3.5 over Broncos, 24-16

-You need a quarterback, and I’m still not sure Pro Bowler Trevor Siemien is the answer. Yeah, that happened, look it up. I love the Chargers a little bit, they got the QB in Elway mode, and a juiced-up pass rush. 

2017 NFL Season Predictions

Hello friends,

          For about the third year in a row, I debated not writing about the NFL season again. The PTB know that I have plenty to do, most of it writing related. I even have a doc class right now that includes essentially daily journaling. But, I can’t resist. I need to keep my streak going. This is my 9^th year writing this thing. It has kept my sanity through jobs and school, and helps me reset my brain each week in preparation for fantasy matchups and *friendly* wagers with friends and family. I look forward to the day when I can write at more length and with extended mirth, but for 2017, this will again be abbreviated but authentic football analysis and internal dialogue spout onto a blog post. Enjoy.

MIKE

2017 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Patriots – I mean, two of the teams gave up already and the one that is trying signed Jay Cutler.

AFC North – Steelers – I hate this, but the infrastructure for the Bengals is declining.

AFC South – Titans – Don’t trust the QB situation anywhere else. Hurts to say that about Luck though.

AFC West – Raiders – Been on the bandwagon for two years. Hanging on until further notice.

AFC Wild Cards – Ravens on the strength of a great defense and Chargers with a good QB, decent weapons on the outside finally, and two good pass rushers.   

AFC Championship – Patriots over Titans.

NFC East – Giants – Eli will remain inconsistent but that defense is going to be awesome.

NFC North – Packers – Aaron Rodgers is involved and is the best football player on the planet.

NFC South – Panthers – Uneasy about this division but the Bucs and Falcons both scare me.  

NFC West – Cardinals – I have a good feeling about this team. Palmer was just fine last ten games of last year, the narrative isn’t exactly right there.

NFC Wild Cards – Seahawks because of the gross talent, and Falcons because it will be hard not to score a lot of points and the defense will get better than last year.

NFC Championship – Packers over Cardinals.

Superbowl: Packers over Patriots – Would have flipped this a few days ago, but the Pats are thin along the ends of both lines all of a sudden. Packers quietly reloaded with a bunch of young guys and are my pick here.

Awards

MVP: Tom Brady.

-Even without Edelman, they are going to score so many points and the narrative loves him here.

OPY: David Johnson

-1K+1K in play. 20 TDs also.

DPY: Joey Bosa

-20 sacks in play, and the defense should rise in notoriety and effectiveness.

ORY: Dalvin Cook

-Opportunity based pick.

DRY: Myles Garrett

-Browns may be a little better on defense than we think. Was also thinking about Solomon Thomas.

COY: Belichick

-I mean, it’s like Popovich. They should win every year. But they rarely do.