NBA 2011 Mid Season Power Rankings

As the NFL season enters its period of slumber before the draft (owners and Goodell, you better not be sleeping), my attention and focus tightens on the NBA. This has been an incredible season so far. The All-Star weekend has been great, and the rest of the season will continue to be enjoyable, especially once the Melodrama ends.

1.       San Antonio Spurs – In my mind, they are the Pittsburgh Steelers of the NBA. Boring, grind it out, not very personable but damn if they don’t win season after season. This season’s version has more offense than usual, but the defense has slipped lately, especially to point guards (DRose lit them up recently). This season will be the last for Duncan as a true impact player…and how much he has stored away will dictate exactly how far they go.

2.       Boston Celtics – I know the Heat have more wins, but really? The San Antonio of the East continues to crank out victories with significant injuries. And they are 3-0 against the Heat. Enough said. 4 All Stars, 4 Hall of Famers. I am not ever going to count them out.

3.       Chicago Bulls – Really high rank for them, I know. But, they have a really well put together team. More so than the Heat, Lakers, or even Boston this is a team with clearly defined roles: Go to scorer and playmaker (Rose), scoring PF who can pick and roll/pop and not have a problem deferring (Boozer), a defensive center who can run on the break (Noah), and some good vets who can contribute (Kurt Thomas, Luol Deng). Their only hole is at SG, and they have enough to get by. Adding OJ Mayo would be a coup. Mark it down: either the Celtics or Bulls will come out of the East for the Finals.

4.       Los Angeles Lakers – Their lack of ability to get up for some games this season worries me a bit, but we do this every year it seems. They will be fine in the playoffs. They are about a 75% chance lock to play in the Western Conference Finals, minimum. And I cannot believe I am saying this, but the Spurs are going to have a problem defending them in the playoffs because they aren’t big enough. And I’ll never bet against Kobe Bryant.

5.       Dallas Mavericks – Still no Miami, huh? That’s right. I’d rather have Dirk and company. Partially, this is because the Heat don’t match up well. Dirk can still own Bosh, and the PG play of the Mavs, especially Roddy back, is far superior to the Heat’s 2 headed disaster of Chalmers and Arroyo. The Mavs are right there year after year, and have continuity….assuming they don’t blow it up with a trade in the next week (though I am intrigued at Butler/Barea for Iguodala).

6.       Miami Heat – One of the most supremely talented teams in the NBA. But the truth is, I have a hard time making an argument putting them above any of the teams ranked 1-5 here. They have 2 great players that do almost the same thing. They have a third great player who has huge limitations in rebounding and defensively in the clutch. They can score and play some good man defense. However, they get killed by teams with dynamic PGs or scorers down low, and Boston for some reason also plays them hard. With Haslem hurt, I just don’t see them being a team any better than the semifinals. Yeah, the record is pretty good, especially if you throw out their first week. They may even make a run at 70 wins next year. But they have a terrible record vs. above .500 teams. That catches up to you.

7.       Oklahoma City Thunder – They have two of the top 25 players, and 1 of the top 3. This team players well together, and is just missing one tough interior defender. They are one of the only teams who can give the Lakers a run for their money early in the playoffs. They are probably one year and a Jeff Green trade away though.

8.       Atlanta Hawks – This team easily could have had 3 All-Stars and Joe Johnson has almost made us forget that he was grossly overpaid….almost. They can play a variety of ways and if they upgrade at the point they will be dangerous. You know, unless they run into the….

9.       Orlando Magic – This team is still feisty, but does not have the talent to overcome it deficiencies anymore. The Carter-Turkoglu trade has gone okay for them, but the Arenas-Lewis one is looking like a disaster. Arenas is going to cripple that team in about a year, and in 2013 this is going to be a team headlined by Turkoglu and Arenas, with Ryan Anderson taking 15 shots a game. Dwight will leave because they are set up so badly. But for now, they are a semi finals team that can go to the ECF if they get the Heat, because Dwight can dominate down low. They were probably be beaten badly by the Celtics or Bulls though, but they will have their yearly sweep over the Hawks at some point.

10.   Portland Trailblazers – The Brandon Roy situation is a disaster, and while they have an impressive record considering the injuries, they may fall off if they trade everyone away. However, for now this team isn’t terribly set up. The salary situation with Roy is bad, but Aldridge is dominating, and Wesley Matthews is very underpaid for what he is doing. I give them a ton of props for keeping their record around .600. They aren’t going anywhere in the playoffs though, and this shows the cutoff in talent for the league. New Orleans was close to being number 10, but they aren’t going anywhere either.

Honorable Mention: Denver (melodrama), Jazz (not enough wing play and Center defense), and Hornets (no bench, health).

BLISS

2010 Season Ending

That’s a Wrap!

The Packers win!

And I end the season on an improbable win streak. I loved this victory. It was a victory for the young, the true, and for puppies. The shining team conquered the rough and gruff Steelers. Okay, so I went a little overboard, but hey. I was quite excited, as were about 2/3s of the people I was watching the game with.

I was impressed for many reasons. First, the secondary of the Packers, which I thought was the key to the game, didn’t play great and got very hurt. Also, the Packers WRs were good (see Nelson, Jordy) but not great. They dropped a ton of balls, and Driver got hurt (not a coincidence those two are in the same sentence). And still, the Packers won.

This season the Packers impressed me because they did not let injuries overcome them. They even lost Aaron Rodgers at one point and they overcame it. The Super Bowl ended perfectly in that they sustained key veteran injuries and still overcame it to ride to victory.

Also, because of those injuries and the roles the young guys were forced to play, this team is the best set up team for a repeat since the 03 Pats. They have a good core with few free agents pending. They have an already elite QB under 28 years old, and a few key vets. And they have a ton of young kids who just got a ton of experience. This team can totally come back to the big game next year.

Moreover, they have the easier conference and are more likely repeat just because they have an easier path to the Super Bowl. That division could fall apart (Bears regress to mean, Vikings have no QB, and Lions looks like a good up and coming team but they won’t be there yet). GB looks primed for a great 2011.

Last Power Rankings of 2010-2011:

1.      Packers

2.      Patriots

3.      Saints

4.      Steelers

5.      Ravens

6.      Falcons

7.      Jets

8.      Eagles

9.      Colts

10.  Chargers

11.  Giants

12.  Bucs

13.  Bears

14.  Chiefs

15.  Texans

16.  Lions

17.  Raiders

18.  Jaguars

19.  Seahawks

20.  Dolphins

21.  Rams

22.  Cowboys

23.  Vikings

24.  Titans

25.  49ers

26.  Bengals

27.  Bills

28.  Redskins

29.  Cardinals

30.  Browns

31.  Broncos

32.  Panthers

I have one last prediction to look back on:

I took the CBA over Roger Goodell. Well, the CBA is winning. This lockout may go longer than even I thought it would. It is hard to believe, but we maybe have seen the last football until 2012. They canceled a meeting today when they had some good talks going. This is not a good sign, and I am truly fearful both sides want to prove a point

Either way, we have a draft to look forward to, and also endless speculation about Cam Newton’s potential as a QB. I’ll be moving on to the NBA soon for my yearly “start a franchise with one player” column.

End of season stats:

Record last week:

Straight up: 1-0

Against the Spread: 1-0

Record this year:

Straight up: 138-55

Against the Spread: 112-92

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 255-133
Against the Spread: 212-178

 

BLISS

Super Bowl Individual Predictions

Super Bowl Predictions

My pick was obviously Packers -3 and the game to go over 45. However, Vegas will not take in 100 million dollars this weekend just from those basic results. Prop bets are new big rage (see Bill Simmons’ podcast from Monday and Tuesday for full coverage). I will outline a few of my favorites (and most ridiculous) here. Some are logical, and some defy reason. Let’s have some fun.

While I like the Pack and over, I love ensuring those picks. Because the game will be close and I am guaranteeing one big play passing and one defensive TD or near TD, I love teasing the game. You can get Pack +3.5 and the over at 38.5 or at least Pack +3 and over 39, that is an awesome pick.

I love three different Rodgers predictions:

First, Rodgers completions -3.5 over Ben completions – Easy pickings. Ben completed 9 passes in his first Super Bowl and 19 in his second. I know, he’s gotten better since the first one, but he’s not substantially better than the 08 SB and the defense he is going against is better this time around. Ben isn’t that good in big games, and he also gets more yardage than completions. Rodgers will throw it more, and throw it short. He will complete at least 25 passes, win or loss. Ben may not get to 19 again.

Second, Rodgers over 275.5 yards – Another good pick. This is not a low total anymore, especially for a team that has nearly 100 receiving yard built into the offense with quick hits, screens, and tight 3 yard slants. Add Rodgers’ skill, the Steelers average pass defense, and the fact that Kurt Warner ripped them up in the Super Bowl two years ago, and this is a sure thing.

Three, Rodgers over 1.5 TD passes – I saw he is good for at least two. The only way this doesn’t happen is if he runs one in and Starks or Kuhn steals a short one on him. Even then, there is a good chance he throws two.

Brett Favre mentions in the broadcast is over 2.5 times – I mean, he was mentioned 17 times a minute throughout the season weeks after the Vikings were eliminated, and Green Bay is in the Super Bowl. Lock it up.

Hines Ward under 3.5 catches – At first, this looks insane. Just a few years ago, he was MVP of the Super Bowl. His yardage has always been good but what he has always been good for is 5-6 catches, every game. However, what we need to consider is this: Hines Ward hasn’t been good for a while. He hasn’t had a game over 3 catches versus an over .500 team in the last dozen games versus those opponents. He cannot really separate. Add in the fact Ben is in for about a 20 completion ceiling whether he has a good or bad game, and this doesn’t look good for Ward.

Christina Aguilera’s national anthem time under 2:00 – Lock it up. Easy. Should be like 1:48, 1:53 tops. I’m not kidding.

Packers first half points over 12 – This should be pretty good, but teams start slowly in the Super Bowl. However, here is the logic. First, I think they score 27-28 points minimum overall, so this is a safe half of that. Also, if PIT wins the toss, they are kicking. If GB wins the toss, they may take it. So, the Packers may well have an extra possession in the first half. Also, 12 points is just 2-3 scores, and they can get that. I also trust their FG kicker, so this looks really good.

Packers total points over 23.5 – See the argument for above, but 4-5 scores would get this, and they’ll easily have the chance for that. I just don’t see them with less than 24 even in a bad loss, so this one is good.

Heath Miller over 39.5 yards – Bank on it. Heath Miller roasted them for over 100 yards last year, and the Packers have not been good against TEs this year. Ben will be blitzed and in trouble and will check down a lot. 3 catches minimum, and one of those will get broken open.

Jerry Jones being shown more than 2.5 times – Not only will they talk about him owning the stadium, but we have chances of seeing him when they talk about: A. The roof being closed or open, B. The Cowboys not being in this game when they talked about it, C. The big screen getting hit by a punt, and D. Talk of the best franchises ever, a conversation that includes the Cowboys. That’s 5 times and we need 3. Yes we can!

Aaron Rodgers 9 to 5 to win MVP – Normally I don’t like MVP picks because so much can happen and you essentially have to get the team right as well. However, if you take GB -3, you have to win and cover and you still get -110 on the deal. However, if you think GB is going to win, you know there is about a 2/3s chance that Rodgers will get the MVP. This way, they don’t have to cover, and you get +180 odds. That makes mathematical sense.

Ben over .5 interceptions – This is virtual lock considering his history, gunslinger mentality, and ball hawking secondary of the

Time left when Gatorade dump is given under 30 seconds left – This should be a close game. If either team is within 14 points of each other with under a minute, Rodgers and Ben are scrappy, competitive, and mobile enough to bring this down to the wire. Thus, the dump will be late.

I am not going to pick the Gatorade color, but the prohibitive favorite is yellow.

Greg Jennings over 5 Receptions – Well, I have zero faith in Ike Taylor. Also, Rodgers is airing it about 30-35 times minimum. Jennings has been playing well. Slants and quick hits are in the game plan and Jennings won't be phased by the pressure. I see an 8 for 110 and a TD, so I think over 5 receptions is in the bank.

New CBA -2.5 weeks over Roger Goodell – Okay, hear me out. Goodell is acting like he tells himself Keith Hernandez every day. He said today he wants it done in the next 3-4 weeks.  If it hasn't been done yet and doesn't get done this week, the attention and pressure will fade as we move away from the Super Bowl until the draft approaches and the deadline nears. I just don't see this getting done in February. I'd take March, but I don't know about that either.

James Starks under 61 yards rushing – The Steelers are so good against running backs, I just don't see this happening. Remember Shaun Alexander in 05 and Tim Hightower in 08 versus the Steelers? Me neither. Jackson, being the veteran and pass receiving back, might be in more than you think. Take the under.

Rashard Mendenhall under 77 yards rushing – This is a lock because the Packers play such good defense. Mendenhall hasn’t cracked this in a while and shouldn’t do so here.

Uses of the word dynasty in connection with the Steelers of '05 to '11 over 2.5 – We just love that word. So they will do it. 3 championships in 5 years would be really good, but it would be the same as the Spurs. It was more of a dominant decade than a dynasty. But you know we'll talk about it, especially in the Steelers are leading in the second half. Of course, I don’t that will happen, but they will still talk about it.

Good luck, and enjoy the game.

BLISS

Super Bowl Predictions

Super Bowl

The Back Story

“So, I think we get two weeks of ‘Rodgers the golden boy from Cali’ vs. ‘Ben the ruffian who could be in jail seeking redemption’ storylines. Because hey, the NFL is about quarterbacks, right?”

That is what I wrote before the Conference Championships. I got the headlines right. Okay, so a little less Aaron Rodgers and little more CBA. But this is still what is about.

And a lot about the zone blitz. Apparently America wasn’t up to snuff on that particular defense. Well, don’t worry ESPN, we are now.

So here we are. The Super Bowl. Number 45. Big Ben’s 3^rd. Aaron Rodger’s 1^st. The team with the most Lombardi trophies versus the team with the 1^st. Two huge national (even international) fan bases. If one was on the West Coast, we might have it all.

We have an electric offense with a big play defense going against a tough offense that grinds out third downs with a stout, hard hitting defense. Two completely different coaches (old versus young, big versus small, Bill Walsh vs. Marty Schottenheimer coaching trees, great at scheming/great at in game player management) will square off. The winner will make themselves a legend in their respective city.

The teams have some tremendous similarities. One is the history I already spoke of. Another is the zone blitz with both defenses directed by elder statesmen coordinators. Both defenses have dynamic, rushing linebackers and big play guys in the secondary. Both have active QBs who can buy time and laser throws downfield. Both have dynamic young lead receivers and cagey old veteran receivers who have seen everything possible.

Their seasons went so differently. Green Bay started strong, rolling along. Pittsburgh started looking a 6 game suspension to their star QB in the face. Green Bay got severely hurt in weeks 3-6 with the loss of Finley, Barnett, and so many others. Pittsburgh started rolling in that time frame. Late in the season Pittsburgh was the one that got hit with injuries, especially to the offensive line. Green Bay looked to finally figure it out at the end of the season. They took down a dangerous Philly team, the best team in their conference in Atlanta, and division champ Chicago. Pittsburgh avoided New England but beat their clone and arch nemesis in Baltimore and a similarly tough team in the Jets. They both deserve to be here.

So here we are. We have an extremely strong battle coming up.

The Matchups

There are several key matchups. Some people are talking about, some people are not.

GB LBs versus PIT OTs:

-This one, people are talking about. Clay Matthews is going to terrorize whoever gets to play LT and RT for Pittsburgh this week. When Max Starks is your best lineman and elder statesmen, that is not a good sign. GB should exploit this advantage, and Heath Miller is too important to the passing game to keep in.

ADVANTAGE: GB

PIT LBs versus GB OTs:

-Oh, people were forgetting this one. True, GB’s line is much better than it was 18 months ago. But they still have rookies going against sack artist Woodley (averaging 1+ sacks a game in his playoff career) and former DPOY James Harrison. GB has done okay, mainly due to Rodger’s great mobility. GB will also leave a TE to block more often. However, Pittsburgh will get pressure. The question is, will Rodgers beat the rush?

ADVANTAGE: PIT slightly

PIT WRs versus GB secondary:

-The PIT WRs are a one trick pony. Mike Wallace can get deep, and that’s about it. The rest of them require Ben to move around to really get open. The GB secondary is awesome. Charles Woodson is tough and while he has slowed down, so has Hines Ward. Ward doesn’t have a good game against an above .500 team in a long time. Tramon Williams with Nick Collins over the top should negate Wallace.

ADVANTAGE: GB, big time

PIT TEs (Heath Miller specifically) versus GB LBs/Nick Collins:

-Strange one no one is talking about this. Heath Miller killed them last year in their meeting with other 100 yards. GB has been terrible in games this season versus TEs. Hawk and Barnett couldn’t really cover them and Barnett is gone. Ben struggles in big games, and the GB corners are so good, Miller will be vital to keeping drives alive. Collins won’t be able to move over due to assignments to go over the top on Wallace, unless they reroute that assignment.

ADVANTAGE: PIT, significant

GB Receivers vs. PIT Secondary:

-I am going to group the TEs with the WRs. The linebackers are so good for PIT GB will keep a TE a lot and otherwise they probably won’t have a ton of impact. The key here is that the WRs are so much better than the PIT corners Greg Jennings can beat Ike on slants, posts, and go routes. Donald Driver will kill Bryant McFadden on short slants, especially as McFadden plays SO far back (there is a great segment on the BS Report this week about this, Simmons discussed in depth with a guest speaker). Driver could have a huge game just catching 5-6 yard slants when the Steelers blitz.

ADVANTAGE: GB, big time

Rashard Mendenhall vs. GB run defense:

-Mendenhall is a good back, but hasn’t run well lately. He has had tough defenses (BAL, NYJ), but now he’s playing GB’s run defense which has been pretty great themselves. He has enough skill to grind out some tough first downs, but that is about it.

ADVANTAGE: even

James Starks vs. PIT run defense:

-I am not going to waste my words or time. J. Starks is an unestablished rookie and PIT is awesome. GB should just throw 50 times.

ADVANTAGE: PIT, big time

BJ Raji vs. whoever is playing center for PIT:

-It doesn’t matter who plays. If it is Pouncey (it shouldn’t be, he’d be playing really hurt and that won’t help anyone) then Raji will kill him. If it is the backup, Raji will be too much for him even with the practice this week.

ADVANTAGE: GB, big time

Mason Crosby vs. Shaun Suisham:

-Not even close. PIT had to cut their kicker midseason. Suisham is okay, but his range is limited. Crosby is a vet, comfortable in the system, and has great range. In what is projected to be a 3 point game of equally talented teams with great defenses, this is important. Crosby may not win it for the Pack, but Suisham could easily lose it for the Steelers.

ADVANTAGE: GB

Toughness:

-PIT wins this battle but it is not that extreme. GB has taken its hits and gotten up just as well as the Steelers, Rodgers most of all. They match PIT’s relatively rare quality of having tough guys at corner and WR. However, PIT is legendary for its toughness. And that helps in such a big game with a layoff.

ADVANTAGE: PIT

Experience:

-This is something GB cannot come close to matching. PIT has won 2 Superbowls and has 15 more players with SB experience than GB. GB has a lot of playoff experience, but it still matters. These two weeks are so different than normal. PIT knows how to deal with it. Tomlin knows. And Ben, despite playing badly in Super Bowls, has won two and that is huge.

ADVANTAGE: PIT

What each team would need to win:

The Steelers would need an above average game from Ben to win, and I haven’t seen it yet late in the playoffs. A defensive big sack or turnover along with a Mike Wallace game breaker would be necessary as well. Hines needs to have a productive 5 for 60 night. And Troy Polamalu needs to have a big game changing play. Something productive out of Aaron Smith would be good too.

If the Packers win, it will be a well defended effort where they make Ben try to beat them in the air, causing him to make a mistake or two. Rodgers will have an efficient 25 of 36 game for 260 and 2 TDs with minimal mistakes, and one big rushing first down/short TD. Woodson needs to stay away from penalties. Raji/Matthews need to combine for 2 sacks and a big backfield play. And the Jennings/Driver combination needs to combine for 6-7 first downs and one big play.

Compare those two scenarios. Frankly, which one is more likely and easier to happen? Yeah, that’s what I thought too.

The Pick:

I went 2-0 last week, so let’s see if I can continue this roll.

Packers -3 over Steelers, 30-21

-I think Rodgers manages to have a very productive if not explosive day. GB slants and quick hits the Steelers to death. The Steelers don’t cover that well. I think the Packers score early (though not repeatedly), and the Steelers make an error (INT or missed FG) that gives the Packers back the ball. They then sustain a long drive and put up a two score lead. Green Bay tees off on Big Ben, and dices them to death on offense. Much like the Patriots-Steelers game from early this year, the Steelers will come back and score late to make it look like a game, but it won’t matter in the final result or change what was the tempo of the game. 

A few of the matchups (GB LBs on PIT OL and GB secondary on PIT WRs) won me over. That also got me to think this game will go over the prescribed 45 points. GB will score at least once in a big play, and between the two defenses there will be one big INT/Sack fumble play happen, probably for a TD. With those two TDs in hand, and a probable late flurry of points late, this game should be a decently safe over.

Record last week:

Straight up: 2-0

Against the Spread: 2-0

Record this year:

Straight up: 137-55

Against the Spread: 111-92

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 255-133
Against the Spread: 211-178

BLISS

Up tomorrow: My favorite predictions for weird statistical SB props.