2017 NFL Week 21 Prediction: Super Bowl Sunday

Hello friends,

I’m not going to lie; it was nice to have a week off. This is a good writing outlet for me, but the time has come to wrap the NFL season and focus on basketball (and, you know, my doctoral work). However, one more contest remains, one with less hype than I am used to. Maybe it is the Patriots fatigue. Personally, I never understood that. I would watch Golden State-Cleveland forever. It is more impressive to me to maintain than to see something new. Newsflash, every team is new, every year. There are only 14 players on the Pats from their SB win over Seattle three years ago. 14, with only 5 starters! There is 1 from the Pats-Eagles last decade (and only 1 other player active in the league from that game). The contest to me is more about evoking a kind of feeling.

So let’s talk about feelings. Strange, I know. I like numbers, patterns, data, and definitive answers. I love the NFL and watch as much as humanly possible. I pour over the numbers, follow the sassy twitter accounts, and listen to the podcasts. I didn’t even flick the channel over to the Pro Bowl this weekend. That isn’t Football to me. It’s football, but not Football. No motivation, no assumption everyone is going to give full effort, no complicated system everyone involved is working within. The Pro Bowl is useless because I love knowing the kind of patterns I’ll see in a Seattle-New Orleans game for instance.

The Pats are feelings. Sitting there with some friends watching the Jags game last week I was stunned at how much I fully thought a comeback was coming. Brady is something like we will never see again. Aaron Rodgers is a Jedi Master. He is the best QB I think we will ever see. Look at the efficiency numbers. He has won a Super Bowl. He’s more super powerful than anyone. But man is Brady the person you don’t want to war against. Aaron is the Achilles like hero: Brady is Obi-Wan, Odysseus, or Steve Rogers. Good luck holding him from coming back or winning when it matters most: He can do this all day.

I have no idea how you bet against Brady. Spoiler alert: I’m laying 4.5 for the Pats. You are seriously going to stare at Nick Foles and take him? The Eagles can win, absolutely. But I’d never bet for it. I like my money. If Brady is up in the fourth quarter I feel like they are going to win. If Brady is down in the fourth quarter, I’m waiting for the comeback win. Who else creates that feeling? I don’t even care anymore about the potential loss. Every time Lebron loses I watch the weight of such a skewed Finals record seep in. Brady wins and he’s 6-2. He loses he’s 5-3. I mean, Magic Johnson was 5-4 in Finals, Bird was 3-2. Getting to that many is the ridiculous achievement, as is the feeling that it is always in reach. They could lose this game and I wouldn’t lose the primary feeling this gives me: Awe.

We aren’t going to see this again. It’s the greatest run ever. Jordan’s 6-6 is like Montana’s 4-4 to me. Dominant. Hard to ever “beat”. But to get there twice as much as Montana, to have a run twice the length of Jordan’s being in the final four at least in the sport…it simply won’t happen. Casual fans want to see their team have a turn, and new teams at least to watch in the finals of their sport. That’s why they hate the Pats. The league hates the Pats because they aren’t supposed to be able to do this. There is supposed to be a year like the Broncos had, or the Packers had three years ago. An injury occurs, or there is some bad play for a time, or something changes in the team and even the best can falter. The Pats have those issues…and it doesn’t matter. I’m in awe they are consistently here.

The Eagles are actually likely the better team. Non-Brady and Foles related things get me there. The Eagles youth and depth is impressive. Their free agency adds have been shrewd and worked out well. Their injuries don’t seem to have affected them that much, and the Hightower one killed us. I still feel the Edelman one on occasion. I’m a little nervous Gronk isn’t a full go. I’d love for him to be, but it would be a good statement for the league’s stance on player safety if he truly isn’t ready and they hold him out. This Eagles team is physical and motivated and unified. I respect them a lot.

But in the end, I trust Bill and Tom to figure it out. Pederson is a fine coach, but this is something different. The Pats have played 7 straight close Super Bowls: I am actually kind of wondering if this is the first one that won’t be.

Pats -4.5 over Eagles, 28-17

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-0

By Spread: 1-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 165-94

By Spread: 133-124

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1262-683
By Spread: 1037-912

The Stats:

Pats are wearing white. White jersey teams are 33-18 in the Super Bowl, 12-1 since 2004, and Pats are 3-0 in white. You know what this means: absolutely nothing.

The last Pats-Eagles SB’s definitive score was Mike Vrabel, a linebacker, catching 1 of his 10 career touchdowns from Brady. Mike Vrabel this week was named head coach of the Titans. I keep thinking I’m going to wake up finding out Brady retired in 2012 like a normal human and it’s all been a dream.

Brady has 7 SB starts. The Eagles have 7 as a team. Several come from former Patriots.

The Pats would tie the Steelers for most Super Bowls ever with 6, one of the few records I want for this team, rather than just appreciate seeing as they happen.

Belichick has been to 11 Super Bowls in some form. That’s more than 1 out of every 5. He’s been to more than 1 of every 3 since he starting coaching in 1986 with the Giants. Essentially he’s been in a third of Super Bowls in my lifetime.

The Pats have never scored in the first quarter. Odd. I’d bet that changes. Some of that is just the nerves. Their 7 opponents haven’t exactly lit it up: They’ve combined for 15 points total, about 2 a piece. The game is slower, more deliberate, and with two weeks off between to create rust.

I love the Pats are near the top in scoring defense but near the bottom in yardage. Bend don’t break, luck, red zone specialties, I have no idea. But I’d bet on it continuing.

Prediction, Janet Jackson makes an appearance in the Super Bowl halftime show.

Passers who lead the league in passing have never won the Super Bowl. Odd.

The Props:

Pats have won and lost SBs by 3 and 4 points mostly, with last year’s 6 being the largest difference. There are good 22 to 1 and 20 to 1 odds on the difference in the game being precisely 6 and 4 points respectively….

“Will Pats have a rushing TD” is -160. I love this bet.

Tease gets the Pats to +2 and over 41.5 is nice and clean.

Brady -.5 TDs over Foles is easy money. So is over on Brady yards at 289.5.

James White over 24.5 yards receiving...it’s a playoff game. This is happening.

Ertz over 57.5 yards is a good bet: Foles is going to default to him a lot.

I am waiting on Brandin Cooks to just absolutely explode. It hasn’t happened yet, and maybe it won’t. But a 5 catch 160 yards 2 TD game is coming. It’d be nice to happen now though. 67.5 yards feels easy.

Amendola in big games: 5 for 81 versus BAL a few years ago, 5 for 48 and 1 TD versus Seattle, 8 for 78 and 1 TD versus Atlanta, 11 for 112 versus Titans, 7 for 84 yards and 2 TDs versus Jax. Break in case of emergency, and with Edelman out and Gronk of questionable status in the Super Bowl, it’s time to crack the pane. The props are 47.5 yards and 4.5 catches. OVER.

As always, if you truly want to bet the Pats, it is probably better for you to just bet Brady’s MVP odds. It’s -110, while Pats -4.5 is -115….and you have to lay the -4.5. With the way the Pats are constituted, it is almost certainly Brady who would win it.