The 2015-2016 NBA Finals is not a rematch. Don’t let anyone tell
you otherwise. The names of the teams are the same, but overall it is really
different.
Golden State has won 73 regular season games since its title
win last year. The Death Lineup isn’t a novel idea or something sprung on the
league from nowhere: it was a staple this year and we know the havoc it causes.
Steph was a superstar last year, an MVP, and this close to a Finals MVP (I love
that Iggy got it, no arguments). But Steph this year is really a different
player. He is a “top 5 player of the last 20 years” kind of guy. His whirling
set of ways to score is a Human Torch like ability to affect the game in
drastic ways over short periods. He pairs that inhuman and almost wild ability
to flummox defenders with a perfect calm on defense and running the offense
strategically. As so many announcers say, his superpower is that he almost
never makes bad decisions, dumb fouls, misses his switches. He's Captain America there: a superpower that is being so calm and direct in his intent and focus. Unable to make the
play athletically, sure, that happens. But his focus is crazy, and I love
watching that combined with his crazy explosive ability as a scorer. The offensive savant has become a basketball savant.
Golden State also learned a lot about their limits and
abilities this year. Klay is a superstar. Sorry, not sorry, I truly believe that. He has rounded out
his offensive game. I’m not terrified when he backs a guy down and does a
turnaround, or switches hands around the rim. His shooting was already otherworldly,
and he is a top 10 shooter all time already by my book. We do not talk enough
about his perimeter defense. I’d take him over Tony Allen, Chris Paul, Avery
Bradley. Klay has discipline, length, intelligence, and lateral speed. Draymond
also grew a lot, both in being a pure big in the rebounding stats, and a pure
point forward as a facilitator. He isn’t the same player even as last year, and
is still only just finding himself. Kerr and the coaching staff has changed a
lot too, especially in the time he was away. The team learned more autonomy,
and a few things from Luke Walton as well. And they certainly learned from
Oklahoma City.
Cleveland, likewise, are not close to the same team. Last
year’s team was hurt, defensive, slow, and Lebron-centric on offense. Lebron
himself was tired, and they had an older head coach who made mistakes in the
NBA game and was disconnected from his players. This year’s team is much better
on offense and much worse on defense. Players who were playing out last year
and giving tremendous defensive output in Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert
are available but not being used. Iman could play in this series but probably
won’t. Tristan just really shouldn’t unless it is spot minutes at center. Kyrie
and Love are around, and the offense is flowing as a result. It really is Kyrie’s
offense when he is on the court. Love is overpaid as a glorified spot up
shooter, but it is effective because of his stretch of the floor while still
having great rebounding prowess.
The offense sings with Kyrie and Love on the court now, but
the defense is horrid. Specifically, the Pick and Roll defense when Kyrie and
Love are the 1 and 4 or 1 and 5 is abhorrent. They are getting gashed each
time, and it is a perfect storm of factors. They aren’t naturally defensively
inclined, aren’t physically gifted specifically for defense, and don’t talk. If
Lowry and Bismack can destroy it, what will Curry/Draymond, Curry/Iggy or Curry/Ezeli
do to it?
Prediction: I like the Warriors
in 5. I think 6 could make sense as well as 4. I actually think the
advanced stats will say afterwards this series was a strong win for the
Warriors, but because the 3s are going to fly it is likely the Cavs get a game
or two. 3s by definition are a high variance stat, and a game or two will
swing. A 1-1 start wouldn’t surprise me, especially as the Cavs have had so
much rest. But the Cavs will take control of this series.
It will unfold mainly because the public is forgetting one
thing: The Warriors can SCORE. Even more than last year’s team. If the Cavs go
big to try to maximize rebounds, they will get blasted by the Death Lineup. If
they go small, the Dubs will isolate the 1-4 PNR with Kyrie and Love and
destroy that mismatch and it’ll be death by a thousand papercuts. The Thunder
had exactly the right set of tools to stymie the Warriors: length, athleticism
at each position, and communication. The Cavs just don’t have that.
Okay, so let’s talk about Lebron. He’s a top 3 player even
now, has tons of experience in this spot, and is rested after going into last
year’s Finals gassed. He loses in the Finals, pretty much every year. I
discount the lockout Finals to some degree (sadly, the same for the Spurs win
in 99, for the same reasons), and the win over San Antonio in 13, while great
in some ways, still feels like San Antonio should have won. But for the most
part, Lebron is still great in them. Even last year, it is a misnomer to label
the defense Iggy, Barnes, and Draymond played on him as “great”. Klay played
okay on him, but he will definitely be needed on Kyrie. Iggy is probably a bit
slower than last year, and Lebron is about the same. Lebron will likely be
great again: I just don’t think it will matter. It won't be why they lose. I do find Lebron’s lack of a jumper concerning. It really
doesn’t make sense in his overall evolution as a player. However, it just isn’t
the big concern here.
For the Cavs to really have a chance, Kyrie needs to
equal Curry, and Love needs to be tough enough to make Green’s fire and
offensive impact negated by Love’s rebounding and reasonable defense. I think
one significant element of the series, and a big difference from the OKC
series, and is we see the reemergence of Draymond Green as an offensive scorer
by himself. He just couldn’t do it on Ibaka with Adams behind him: on Love and
Frye it’ll be cake.
I also really believe in the value of trial by fire rather
than preparation by rest. The Cavs are fresher: this is very true. But the
Warriors are hardened and tested. They took a monumental hook to the head by
the Thunder, whirled around, and absolutely took control of the fight. They
learned, they grew, they faced real adversity for the first time in a year and
learned again how to excel. And worse of all for the Cavs, the Thunder gave
Steph 7 games to REALLY get back to being “Steph Curry” about his layoff. He’s
ready. The Cavs are done. Steph for Finals MVP this time.
