NFL 2011 Week 3 Predictions

I had a good week in the second set of games this week, going 11-2 straight up and 7-4-2 against the spread. Hate three point lines. Time for week three: let’s do this.

Titans -6.5 over Broncos, 21-13

-Titans are getting healthier (or perhaps more in shape, I’m looking at you CJ2K) and the Broncos aren’t even close to full health. This is in Tennessee, and they should roll over the Broncos. Sit Orton.

Lions -3.5 over Viks, 27-13

-Donovan McNabb still the quarterback? Thanks!

Saints -4 over Texans, 33-27

-High scoring, should grab the over easy. I like the Saints to win because they are significantly more proven. It is in the Superdome, which helps. The Texans though look to be overconfident, and I don’t trust their new spiffy defense that much yet. Saints will be the best 2-1 team after this weekend.

Pats -7 over Bills, 35-17

-So they beat the Chargers by 14, and the line for this game is 7? I don’t get it. If Belichick is better than Norv, he is MUCH better than Chan Gailey. The Bills will be feisty, but yeah, it isn’t happening here. Bills are 3-20 against NE since Bill took over.

Carolina-Jacksonville, ugh, that could be ugly, I am staying away. Same with SF and Cincy. You couldn’t pay me to watch that game.

Giants +9 over Eagles, 20-23

-These games are always tougher than they should be, so 9 points is too much. If Vick doesn’t play or gets knocked out early, anything can happen. Wait, Brandon Stokley may be starting for the Giants. Maybe not then.

Ravens -4 over Rams, 23-17

-Ravens are angry, the Rams can’t stop the run, Rams have no healthy skill players.

Chargers –30 versus Chiefs, 38-7

-I have no idea where this line will end up and I am not sure it matters. Chargers roll, Rivers’ MVP stats actually get hurt because he gets pulled in the third quarter.

Raiders +3.5 over Jets, 20-21

-We’ve been here before. The Raiders are apparently feisty. The Jets don’t look that good to me. So this is a win but a cover for the Raiders. The “Jets go to Oakland” game over the years has been a strange one though. An upset would not surprise me.

Cards -3.5 over Seahawks, 24-10

-Seattle is god-awful, and I believe in the Cards. If Beanie doesn’t play, make it more like 20-10.

ATL-TB is going to be weird, low scoring, and dependent upon whether Tampa can keep it close. I am not going to hazard a guess officially, but think it will be low scoring Tampa win because it is in TB.

Packers -3.5 over Bears, 27-17

-Packers haven’t put together a complete game yet, and will soon. The Bears O-Line isn’t good, and Clay Matthews may have a big day.

Steelers -10.5 over Colts, 24-7

-I don’t like the Steelers this year, but they are being given a layup here. The Colts are really bad, reeling, and just kind of pathetic. See PIT-SEA all over again. Isaac Redman is a sneaky spot start here, fantasy wise.

ELIMINATOR PICK

Skins +4.5 over Cowboys, 21-20

-I truly despise this pick. These Skins are not for real. But Rex had 320 and 2 TDs against Dallas late last year, Dallas has hurt corners and WRs, and Romo may or may not have two working lungs for this game. In addition, Dallas is starting a guy who Michael Irvin had a role in mentoring at WR. I guess the Redskins will win, but jesh.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-2

By Spread: 7-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 18-7

By Spread: 14-9

Record last year:

Straight Up: 138-55

By Spread: 112-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 274-140
By Spread: 226-187

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 2 Predictions

Here are the Week 2 picks. Good luck!

Cards +3.5 over Skins, 21-20

-Yeah, I don’t trust Rex. Neither should you. The only reason it is close is because it is a West Coast team coming east for a 1am East Coast game.

Ravens -5.5 over Titans, 24-10

-Won’t be close. Ravens are just much better. This line is at least 2 points off, maybe 4.5. I think Chris Johnson is still held back a bit, and that just makes it worse. Ravens have a good track record against the Titans too. Ray Rice goes off again here.

Saints -6.5 over Bears, 34-21

-Bears played well but this is a home game for NO. The Bears don’t have Roy or Marion back, and Urlacher may not be all there emotionally. The Saints won’t start 0-2, and can outscore the Bears. They also are more efficient. Saints defense isn’t great but puts a decent game together.

Browns -1.5 over Colts, 24-10

-This will look worse on the field. Colts firmly established as the worst team in the league until proven otherwise. They don’t have much depth, and three of their four stars without Manning (Clark, Mathis, Freeney) don’t have much effect without him there. They can’t get leads and cannot exploit matchups. If the Browns don’t show up here all their backers should just give up. “Triple cover Reggie Wayne” is pretty much the game plan.

Packers -10.5 over Panthers, 37-13

-Also a game where the score will be bad but in actuality will be even worse. Cam Newton meets a real defense with a great secondary, and gets picked 3 times. Without Beason, it is even harder for the Panthers to contain the Pack, and they score early and often. Plus, Lambeau.

Jags +9.5 over Jets, 16-17

-Again, I am predicting a Jet win but opponent cover. Got that right last week, let’s see if it works out again. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jags win. Luke McCown was better than I expected, and the Jets do NOT look good. If they continue to think they are a throwing team, they will fail. The Jets can totally be a 10-6 team again, but they need to pound the run. I am not sure that they will.

Lions -9.5 over Chiefs, 27-14

-Lions are favored by 9 in a game?! The end of the world is coming soon my friends. But in all seriousness, the Lions looked good, the Chiefs didn’t. The Lions have their injured playmaker (Calvin) playing and the Chiefs (Eric Berry) have theirs getting an ACL repair surgery. This game is in Detroit, the Lions have a better QB, and the Detroit D-Line may destroy KC’s O-Line. Jamaal Charles can only do so much.

Buffalo -3 over Raiders, 31-10

-Raiders cannot score, and are a West Coast team coming East to play a 1pm game AFTER having just played a Monday Night game. Thus, it is also a short week for them. In addition, the Raiders still have Jason Campbell. This game screams: A. Bills drive for a quick TD. B. Campbell does something stupid and throws a pick 6. C. There is some weird fumble recovery/punt return mess up by the Raiders special team leading to another score. D. Al Davis fires Hue on the field for not stopping Jim Kelly from marching down the field on them.

-Eliminator pick!

Seattle +14.5 over Pittsburgh, 14-20

-Pittsburgh is winning this game, don’t get me wrong. The NFL schedule makers did them a huge favor here, as getting Seattle at Heinz is the best game to have after the Ravens fiasco. But, I think Seattle plays them tough, and Pittsburgh’s injury concerns start to add up. I would NOT take this as my Eliminator Pick. Could Pittsburgh win big? Yes. But odds are with the injuries and bad play, they should be happy with picking up a win.

Bucs +3.5 over Vikings, 21-17

-Getting points here is just awesome, and I see a Bucs victory anyways. The Viks offense cannot do anything. The Bucs actually played awesome after halftime last week, it just took them a while to wake up. The Vikings’ defense got old. Christian Ponder before or after week 8?

Cowboys -3 over San Fran, 31-13

-Yeah, this is called “overreaction to week 1 results”. I know it is in SF, but this isn’t 1989. Look at the rosters and tell me this isn’t a 6.5 line game masquerading as a 3 point one. Alex Smith. Tony Romo. Despite last week, the comparison here isn’t hard. Dallas needs this. If Dez doesn’t play, make it 27 points instead of 31 but still a clear win.

Houston -3 over Dolphins, 27-17

-Yeah, 3 points is not enough. The Dolphins treated last week like their Super Bowl and I think they used most of their new tricks up then. Houston has an improved defense and has now seen the new Chad Henne. Who covers Andre Johnson? Plus, Arian Foster is back. Texans should do well here, and all the worried Owen Daniels owners (raises hand) should celebrate because we all saw what the Pats TEs did last week….

Patriots -6.5 over Chargers, 38-31

-Reason 1. West Coast team coming to NE, even if it isn’t a 1pm game and also isn’t that cold yet.

-Reason 2. The Chargers mess up in September, taxes are collected, bad things happen after 2am, these are just truths in life.

-Reason 3. Because I want it to go over and man would 38-31 be an entertaining game.

-Reason 4. The Chargers have Norv Turner, the Patriots have Bill Belichick.

Not touching Cincy at Denver, that could get ugly. I smell a stupefying 10-6 game there.

The same with Philly-ATL. It might even go under too.

Ditto Giants and Rams, too many injured players, just stay away. If Bradford seems 100% and the line creeps over 7, grab the points. But otherwise, this is a no fly zone.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-5

Against the Spread: 7-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 7-5

Against the Spread: 7-5

Record last year:

Straight Up: 138-55

Against the Spread: 112-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 263-138
Against the Spread: 219-183

BLISS

NFL 2011 Season Predictions

Season predictions:

AFC East, Pats

AFC West, Chargers

AFC South, Texans

AFC North, Ravens

AFC Wildcards, Steelers and Colts

AFC Champions, Pats

NFC East, Cowboys

NFC West, Cardinals

NFC South, Saints

NFC North, Packers

NFC Wildcards, Bucs and Falcons

NFC Champions, Packers

Super Bowl: Packers over Patriots, 35-31

Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson

Defensive Player of the Year: Ed Reed

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mark Ingram

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Peterson

Season MVP: Rivers, SD

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 1 Predictions

I almost didn’t do my predictions this year, because things have gotten busy. But, I couldn’t resist. And I have to put my record on the line, don’t I?

Here are my results from last year, and my life time record. Let’s see if I can improve this coming season. Chan Gailey remains a head coach, so I think I have a good shot of doing so.

Record last year:

Straight up: 138-55

Against the Spread: 112-92

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 256-133
Against the Spread: 212-178

Ravens -2 over Steelers, 20-14

-Tough game but they should split the season series, so Baltimore gets the one at home. Troy spent too much of his extension on hair product and misses the first half by accident enjoying it.

Browns -7 over Bengals, 24-13

-You think you are going to the playoffs, you win this game. Period. Rookie QB versus second year. Browns’ playmakers, or lack thereof, do scare me though.

Texans -9 over Colts, 31-13

-The inverse score that the stat geek in me loves so much. I mean, come on, Kerry Collins? The emotional impact from missing Manning could do them in all by itself. If Foster sits, make it 24-13.

Chiefs -4 over Bills, 23-17

-I am down on the Chiefs this year like many people, but mainly due to how bad the SECOND half of their schedule is. The first half is fine. And the Bills still cannot stop the run.  

Rams +4.5 over Eagles, 21-20

-That’s right, you heard me. Not only am I taking the points but I am predicting the win. Dream Team goes down early. They are on the road, versus a team with continuity, with all that pressure on them. The advantage of the Philly corners is negative because the Rams have only average WRs to begin with. Eagles get blasted on the offensive and defensive lines, and get owned here. And here starts my predictions against the Eagles this year.

Giants -1.5 over Skins, 20-13

-I don’t like many things about the Giants this year. WR depth, corners being hurt, Eli still being Eli are the things among them. But, at the end of the day, the Skins are playing either Rex or John Beck. Thank you and drive through.

Cardinals -7 over Panthers, 27-10

-Eliminator Pick! Love this pick because even if the Cards don’t completely gel, they should still pummel Cam Newton in his first game.

Vikings +9 over Chargers, 24-31

-Chargers win but that line is too big for Norv in September to cover.

49ers -6 over Seahawks, 17-10

-I mean, I guess? Who cares anyways.

Cowboys +6 over the Jets, 20-21

-I would love to pick the Cowboys here, but the health of the Dallas corners and WRs scares me. Still, cover should work.

Patriots -7 over Dolphins, 38-13

-Chad Henne has been given audible ability. Yup, that’s enough. NE is going to be like GB and NO, the continuity and experience is going to allow them to rip it up in the first week. Miami shouldn’t know what hit them. If you aren’t saving NE in an eliminator league, this should be the safest pick this week.

Broncos -3 over Raiders, 20-16

-Raiders finally pulled out an 8-8 season, and then fired their head coach, let their best player go, and then let their third best player go. Um, wow.

Good luck this year everyone, season prediction column going out this afternoon.

BLISS

NFL 2011 Board Wagers: Bliss vs. Orsi round 2

NFL 2011 Board Wagers

Bliss vs Orsi

Baseball was so fun, we thought we’d do another round of board wagers for football. And here we go!

Playoff Teams
AFC North - Bliss-Ravens, Orsi-Steelers
NFC West - Bliss-Cardinals, Orsi-Rams
NFC Wildcard team - Bliss-Bucs, Orsi-Cowboys
AFC Wildcard teams - Bliss-Steelers and Colts, Orsi-Colts and Ravens
NFC Champs - Bliss-Packers, Orsi-Falcons
Super Bowl Champs - Bliss-Packers, Orsi-Patriots

Win Totals
Worst record WAS vs. SF - Bliss-WAS, Orsi-SF
CHI 8.5 wins - Bliss under, Orsi over
DAL 9.5 wins - Bliss under, Orsi over
DET 7.5 wins - Bliss under, Orsi over
NYJ 9.5 wins - Bliss under, Orsi over
PHI 10.5 wins - Bliss under, Orsi over
Best longshot (over 20/1 odds) to win Super Bowl (team that advances the farthest wins)- Bliss- Bucs, Orsi-Bears
Best darkhorse (over 40/1) - Bliss-Cardinals, Orsi-Rams
Cowboys-Eagles Season Series - Bliss-Cowboys, Orsi-Eagles
Packers-Bears - Bliss-split, Orsi-Packers

Player Props
Offensive ROY - Bliss-Mark Ingram, Orsi-Julio Jones
Defensive ROY - Bliss-Patrick Peterson, Orsi-Von Miller
MVP - Bliss-Rivers, Orsi-Brady
Kevin Kolb 3500 yards - Bliss over, Orsi under
Kevin Kolb 17.5 INTs - Bliss under, Orsi over
Larry Fitzgerald 1150 yards - Bliss over, Orsi under
Nnamdi Asomugha 2.5 INTs - Bliss under, Orsi over
Michael Vick 3350 passing yards - Bliss under, Orsi over
Michael Vick 23.5 passing TDs - Bliss under, Orsi over
LeSean McCoy 1900 TYFS - Bliss over, Orsi under
Desean Jackson 1100 Rec Yards - Bliss under, Orsi over
Deion Branch 600 Rec Yards - Bliss over, Orsi under
Best NE TE per PPR - Bliss-Gronkowski, Orsi-Hernandez
Reggie Bush 750 total yards - Bliss under, Orsi over
Danny Amendola 85.5 catches - Bliss over, Orsi under
More Rushing Yards - Bliss-Deangelo Williams, Orsi-Jonathan Stewart
Donovan McNabb 3150 Passing Yards - Bliss under, Orsi over
Adrian Peterson 1850 TYFS - Bliss over, Orsi under
Tim Tebow 4.5 total TDs - Bliss under, Orsi over
Nate Burleson 650 Rec Yards - Bliss over, Orsi under
Any RB catches over 79.5 passes - Bliss-yes, Orsi-no
Any WR catches over 109.5 passes - Bliss-yes, Orsi-no
Any QB throws 35.5 TDs - Bliss under, Orsi over
Any RB/WR scores 18 TDs - Bliss over, Orsi under
Most Fantasy Points - Bliss-Moss, Orsi-Owens

League Leaders (closest wins)
Most Passing Yards - Bliss-Rivers, Orsi-Brees
Most Passing TDs - Bliss-Brady, Orsi-Rivers
Most Rushing Yards - Bliss-Adrian Peterson, Orsi-Jamaal Charles
Most Receiving Yards - Bliss-Andre Johnson, Orsi-Roddy White
Total Yards from Scrimmage - Bliss-Adrian Peterson, Orsi-Chris Johnson
Sacks - Bliss-Clay Matthews, Orsi-James Harrison

May the best predictor win
-Bliss