2011 NFL Week 17 Predictions

Week 17, the week of Jim Sorgi and every old backup RB ever known. Some of us still have fantasy championships to conclude, good luck to everyone still playing for something. For others, this is the week to determine real life byes and division titles. So while I am actually debating Carson Palmer or Drew Brees (seriously), here are the week 17 predictions for you to chew on.

Ravens -2 over Bengals, 21-17

-A line over 3 would be too much, but the Ravens have tried SO hard to get the division title and a bye and it would hurt to beat the Steelers twice and STILL lose out on it. Ray Rice has a big game here.

Pats -11 over Bills, 37-13

-You couldn’t make this line high enough. The Pats haven’t lost at home in Gillette to Buffalo, ever. The Pats need this, the Bills have nothing to play for at all.

Panthers +8.5 over Saints, 27-31

-Scenario 1: Panthers just win. Scenario 2: Panthers win after Saints sit their regulars. Scenario 3: Panthers cover because the line is too big anyways. Result: Take the points.

CHI-MIN, not touching it.

Cowboys +3.5 over Giants, 31-30

-Take the points in a close game. And take the over. And don’t trust either of the QBs under any circumstances.

DET-GB, not touching it.

Colts +3.5 over Jags, 17-16

-Take the points because the Colts vets almost seem to not want the first pick.

Dolphins -1 over Jets, 20-13

-The Fins are a good team, very thoroughly mediocre and they take advantage of the mistakes by other teams. The Jets still have Mark Sanchez.

Steelers -7 over Browns, 24-10

-Browns cannot score so it won’t matter whether Ben plays or not.

SF-STL feels weird, but take the under.

Bucs +12.5 over Falcons, 13-21

-Falcons will probably sit starters for some or all of the game, so the point total covers it.

Titans +3.5 over Texans, 20-13

-Texans have nothing to play for; they are locked into the 3 seed. The Titans of course do have something to play for.

WAS-PHI, with Rex Grossman involved and this game not meaning anything, who knows.

Chiefs +3.5 over Broncos, 17-13

-Chiefs will win this game. Tebow and the Broncos are such a fraud, and they have a ton of injuries on top of that. The Chiefs love Romeo Crennel and I think they win this for him.

Raiders -3 over Chargers, 24-20

-Just because the Raiders need it and the Chargers are a week away from total organizational upheaval.

Cards -3 over Seahawks, 19-14

-Lynch gets 1 TD but the Cards play well at home and I believe in their defense and special teams. Larry Fitzgerald has a big game in this divisional pride game. I also strongly need the Cards defense to play well and may be biased because of this.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-4

By Spread: 3-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 128-57

By Spread: 100-83

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 373-190
By Spread: 309-261

BLISS

NBA 2011-2012 Prediction Column with the VP

Vishal Patel and I are bringing you an extremely rushed predictions column this year. Like the teams themselves, we have only a vague idea of how things are going to go. So here it is:

We are going to start by going through each team with the rankings from both the VP and myself, and our predictions.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Bulls: MB 1, VP 1

VP: League MVP, a healthy starting frontcourt of Boozer and Noah, and great depth get them to the ECF again. Finally adding the veteran SG they’ve been looking for: that’s their ticket to the Finals this year (you thought I was going to go all MasterCard on you and say “priceless,” didn’t you?).

MB: Young legs, comeback season for Boozer and the integration of Rip makes this team better than ever.

HEAT: MB 2, VP 2

MB: Because of talent and youth they will be good, but they will suffer some injuries at some point and I am interested to see how they deal with that.

VP: The shortened season favors their young core and star-centric approach – and don’t sleep on Bosh, he will carry over his strong run from last season’s playoffs (and make people realize that his diverse skill set is the most dangerous offensive threat the Heat have).

Pacers: MB 3, VP 6

MB: I love this team. Good leadership, positional flexibility, motivation, talent. They have a deep enough roster to survive the season, which is why I am putting these here. I also LOVE David West.

VP: New hotness. They have a young, exciting backcourt, got a great upgrade at PF in David West, and more than enough depth to survive this season’s schedule. And just in case you missed it: they have a hyper-athletic, 6’10’’ shooting guard (!) who is finally going to get playing time- I am so excited to see this team in action.

Hawks: MB 5, VP 3

VP: Hawks – No more Jamal Crawford and Mike Bibby, flexible and athletic roster (including a leaner, meaner Josh Smith), and Joe Johnson’s last good year all add up to a strong win total.

MB: Youth, new PG depth, and a resurgent Joe Johnson gets them a nice win total.

Knicks: MB 4, VP 4

MB: Awesome front court, and they'll hold on until Baron is healthy in the back. Still, one injury would kill them.
VP: They do have great size in their frontline, but only one player on it can actually play defense. And their backcourt is going to be horrendous until Baron Davis can get healthy (not to mention in shape-Baron is notorious for coming into the season overweight and out of shape and using the early slate of games to get into game condition, and with the shortened season…). What are the chances a team banking on Baron, Amare, and Tyson as 3 of their top 4 gets through a condensed season injury-free? 10% at best? At least their rookies look good.

Celtics: MB 6, VP 5

VP: Old and busted. All those back-to-back (to-backs) and old knees means this season will not end well for their veterans, and an unhappy Rondo is definitely not going to help matters.

MB: Enough veteran moxie and a pissed off Rondo vault them this far. They want to get in and avoid the Bulls/Heat in round 1. Seeds 3-6 do that equally well.

Magic: MB 7, VP 7

VP: They’ll pick up a good amount of wins before Dwight leaves around the trade deadline, which will probably allow them to slip into the postseason.

MB: They are good enough with either Dwight or his replacements to get this many wins.

Nets: MB 8, VP 10

MB: This is simply my declaration of faith in Deron Williams and my denunciation of the Eastern Conference. Also, I have an unhealthy affection for Mehmet Okur.

VP: They have Deron Williams, so there is a small chance they could win a few games they weren’t supposed to and sneak in to the postseason, especially if Lopez makes it back in time.

Bucks: MB 11, VP 8

VP: Jennings will put his sophomore slump behind him, and Bogut and co. will make just enough teams fear the deer to put themselves in contention for the playoffs.

MB: Just good enough to be mediocre. Oh, and probably get Skiles fired.

Sixers: MB 9, VP 9

MB: Good team but until they turn the keys over to Evan Turner and he then does something with it, I don’t see this team mattering.

VP: They have one of the league’s best young PGs in Jrue Holiday and enough experience in Iguodala and Brand to fight for the chance to lose in the first round.

Wizards: MB 13, VP 11

VP: John Wall is obviously great, but without any good veterans to guide this young team, they’ll have to settle for the consolation prize of a lottery pick in a strong draft.

MB: Andre Blatche still on this team? Kay, moving on.

Raptors: MB 10, VP 13

MB: Sneaky team with young legs (Davis, Bayless, DeMar, etc) and some veteran leadership (Calderon). But overall, not enough.

VP: Lot of young pieces that are showing signs of growth, but they’re still going to be getting a lottery pick at the next draft.

Pistons: MB 12, VP 12

MB: No sense in this team's construction. Has young legs and depth, but with no true PGs or Centers.

VP: What happened, Joe Dumars? Why does Kahn’s team look better than yours?

Cavs: MB 14, VP 14

MB: Yeah, no. Just too young, and there isn’t enough talent here.

VP: Irving was the right choice at #1, but that doesn’t help the fact that this team has no other promising player other that Tristan Thompson.

Bobcats: MB 15, VP 15

MB: Might be the worst roster I've seen in a long time. Kwame leaving made them worse. Sit on that for a minute.
VP: I feel bad for Kemba.

Thunder: MB 2, VP 1

VP: Durant and Westbrook are going to be just fine together, and it’s no longer a secret that Harden and Ibaka are good. Now that they’ll have a full season with Perkins, this team is ready to truly contend.

MB: This team will be really good simply because of Durant-Westbrook. However, Harden will have a breakthrough and score near 20 points per game. That is in part good but also bad because it will happen in part because there is an injury coming somewhere from the high usage of their stars.

Mavs: MB 1, VP 3

VP: The reigning champions lost a big piece of their winning formula in Tyson, but the Odom acquisition is going to allow Carlisle to have a lot of fun with his matchups. Case-in-point: the Odom and Nowitzki pick and roll, which Sebastian Pruiti (and Bliss) got me all hyped about on Grantland.

MB: Champs did lose Tyson but Odom makes them more versatile and able withstand nights off for Dirk or Marion and still field a viable team. I think Delonte will allow the same flexibility with Kidd and Terry.

Grizzlies: MB 4, VP 2

VP: My favorite dark horse pick is finally going to be a top seed! People seem to have forgotten how good Rudy Gay is, and the Grizzlies will give their opponents fits with their low post combo of Zach and Gasol and their obscene amount of depth.

MB: This team is extremely strong up front and the front court of Rudy-ZBo-MGasol rivals NY's. Actually, that would be a fascinating Finals...

Nuggets: MB 3, VP 7

VP: Lawson is fantastic, and this team’s depth will be enough to let them win a lot of those back-to-backs. Too bad 3 of their guys are stuck in China.

MB: Go ten deep. They will have 5 games in 7 days and win all 5 many times. I like their second unit as much as their first. Also….GALLO!!!!!!!!

Blazers: MB 5, VP 4

MB: Despite Roy and Oden I love this team. They pass the 2K test. Crash-LA-Camby is a lesser version of Melo-Amare-Tyson but actually similarly effective. Love the Batum/Craw/Wes Matthews rotation.

VP: Aldridge has continued to bulk up and improve his game every year, and a supporting cast of Camby/Wallace/Matthews/ Batum/Felton/Crawford is more than enough to guarantee a playoff spot. Plus, they’re still insanely tough to beat at home with that devoted fan base.

Lakers: MB 6, VP 5

MB: Experience, plus they are still going to get someone else with that exception.

VP: Doubt them all you want, but Gasol will bounce back, Kobe’s blood doping during the offseason will stave off Father Time for one more year, and that trade exception will turn into something decent.

Spurs: MB 8, VP 6

VP: Don’t forget, they had the league’s best record last year, and Duncan’s in great shape to start the season (he knows this is probably his last real chance). The schedule is not in their favor, but their experience will be enough to make up for it.

MB: Under/over of January 31st for when Pop sits all of his starters for a three game stretch and Stern fines the Spurs 2000000 and 2 picks.

Clippers: MB 7, VP 9

VP: Don’t get me wrong, I’m as excited for Lob City as the next guy, but this is still Sterling’s team, and the Clipper curse has never looked more ominous now that it has 4 knees to target between Paul and Griffin. More importantly, they’ll need a SG and frontcourt depth if they want to succeed during the condensed regular season.

MB: Chris Paul or Blake will get injured. They have two good knees between them and this is the Clippers after all. But it will fun while it lasts. I do disagree with VP on one point: Billups will be fine at SG. He did it at Worlds and it will work here.

Rockets: MB 9, VP 11

MB: Morey says the worst thing is to be .500. No playoffs, no lottery picks. Well Daryl...you'll be .500.
VP: They’ll be better with Dalembert’s arrival, but will Scola and Martin be able to put aside any hurt feelings from the failed CP3 trade?

Jazz: MB 14, VP 8

MB: What did adding Josh Howard add to this team? Too many bigs, all their team looks like trading chips or "could be goods".

VP: This team screams impending trade; they have 3 great PFs and no other pieces (Harris is too injury-prone to be reliable).

Suns: MB 10, VP 10

MB: Simply because of Steve Nash. That's it.

VP: Steve Nash has taken worse groups to the playoffs.

Hornets: MB 12, VP 12

VP: Monty Williams will keep them somewhat competitive.  Eric Gordon is a stud; he’ll mesh well with Jarrett Jack, a PG who likes to masquerade as a SG from time to time, since he can handle the ball.

MB: Well, you have two centers, but overall they are kind of competent. Gordon will win them some games but this will actually get worse over the next two years until it gets better.

Warriors: MB 11, VP 14

MB: I got them as high as 11 simply because I believe in the offensive savant, Stephen Curry.
VP: This team will be fun to watch, but will lose most of their games, just like Minny. But, Monta!

T’Wolves: MB 13, VP 13

MB: Could actually jump into the next level due to a real talent level (Rubio!), but probably not quite yet.

VP: This team will be fun to watch… even though they’ll lose most of their games. Rubio!

Kings: MB 15, VP 15

MB: Obviously the worst team in the West, Jimmer will get scored on, Tyreke continues to create layup lines on both ends, and DeMarcus will probably punch both of them at some point.

VP: Cousins will take a huge step forward on the court… and probably an equally big one backwards off the court. Jimmer!

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

Western Conference Finals:

VP: The Thunder takes down the Mavericks, who cannot stop Durant/Westbrook/Harden from getting to the hoop without Tyson, in a reversal of fortunes from last year.

MB: I have the Thunder over the Grizzlies, mainly because the Griz will take out the Mavs the round before this. Durant is already rising as the clutch scorer that you need in the playoffs.

Eastern Conference Finals:

VP: Bulls vanquishes everyone’s favorite villain, the HEAT, who could not contend with Chicago’s size down low (Noah/Gibson/Asik/Boozer).

MB: I have the Bulls over the Knicks. I don’t think the HEAT get to the conference finals because the Knicks take them out the round before. The penetration of Rose and matchup abilities with the 3 and 4 spots get the Bulls the win over the Knicks.

NBA Finals:

VP: OKC grinds out a championship as a result of a stellar defensive performance by Westbrook (and Durant being his beastly self).

MB: I also have the Thunder rising over the Bulls, mainly because again the Bulls fall to having too much emphasis on Rose and Westbrook could be the only one to really shut him down.

STATISTICS AND AWARDS

*All Stat Titles Provided by VP

Points (Alpha Dog) – We agree on Durant.

Rebounds (Mister Clean) – We agree on Love.

Assists (Giving Tree) – VP: Nash, MB: Rondo

Steals (Robber Baron) – VP: Westbrook, MB: Rondo

Blocks (David Stern) – VP: McGee, MB: Dwight Howard

Most Valuable Player:

VP: Derrick Rose repeats since the Bulls NEED him to win; LeBron gave up any chance of winning it again now that he’s Wade’s #2, and Durant won’t get it because of Westbrook and Harden’s rise.

MB: Kevin Durant will score so much and the Thunder may post a truly impressive win total. Like Aaron Rodgers, it seems to be more like “well, he’s already one of the best, it’s time we give it to him” sentiment. Rose has too much chance to regress even 5% or get hurt. Durant makes the most sense. Don’t sleep on Kobe Bryant though.

Defensive Player of the Year:

VP: Yawn, Dwight Howard. It’d be nice if someone else other than Dwight got a look from the media, but Dwight’s domination of the headlines due to his impending trade (and the slight advantage of being in the top 3 in blocks and rebounds) means he gets this award again.

MB: Rajon Rondo. I know, it is crazy. I had D12 too, but that is boring. I picked Rondo to lead the league in steals and I think he has an amazingly powerful eff-you campaign. The voters want someone different than D12 and if he is traded they may not look kindly to his split campaign.

Rookie of the Year: We agree on Kyrie due to opportunity and talent both.  

Most Improved:

MB: Danilo Gallinari. He will get more shots with JR Smith and Wilson Chandler, was improving late last year anyways, and because I think Harden will win 6^th man someone else has to win this.

VP: James Harden and his impending breakout season are a lock for this award.

Sixth Man: We both agree on Harden due to his development, and the Odom, Terry pairing canceling each other out.

Well, this should be an interesting season. Thanks to VP for the varying points of view, and despite the craziness it should be a great season.

MIKE BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 16 Predictions

This is going to be a weird week with Christmas being on a Sunday. Most of the games are on Saturday, and I am putting out these picks quickly. Good luck in your fantasy finals if you are still alive. Good luck especially if you are playing against Drew Brees.

Top 5:

1. Packers

2. Saints

3. Patriots

4. 49ers

5. Ravens

Texans -5.5 over Colts, 20-13

-Wow, this is Thursday Night Football? Texans win one they need while Indy got its win and probably won’t be able to get up again for this one.

Cards +4.5 over Bengals, 20-21

-Cards are way too feisty to pick against them, and I wouldn’t be stunned at a win. Both teams, somehow, are very much in the playoff picture.

Patriots -10 over Dolphins, 37-24

-Just because Matt Moore won’t be able to keep up with Touchdown Tommy.

Ravens -12.5 over Browns, 31-6

-The Ravens will be angry at their loss, and the Browns simply cannot score.

Giants +3.5 over Jets, 27-20

-I just don’t trust Sanchez, and he is dinged up. The Giants have a better real chance of going to the playoffs, and will fight harder.

Vikings +7 over Skins, 20-24

-I do not trust the Skins to do anything like cover, and the Vikings have to win again at some point. This could be that week.

Rams +14.5 over Steelers, 10-24

-Just because the Steelers are so banged up and won’t be able or willing to put the gas pedal down late. Just too many points to cover with what is going on with Big Ben.

Niners -2 over Seattle, 20-17

-Seattle won’t be able to run the ball enough to win this one, and while they have been winning, this is a real team they are facing.

Chargers +3.5 over Lions, 28-27

-Close, high scoring, so take the points.

Cowboys -2.5 over Eagles, 28-20

-I know the first game went very differently, but the Cowboys are on offensively right now and really need this. I think they come together at the right time defensively and give Vick a beating. DeMarcus Ware has a monster game here.

Bears +14 over Packers, 14-27

-This is tough but: A. The Bears always play the Packers tough. B. The Packers now have much less to play for. C. The Bears need this game to remain relevant in the playoff hunt.

Falcons +6.5 over Saints, 27-30

-Take the over on this game as both offenses are fairly purring right now. But, the Saints are just playing so well they win. Take the points, especially if it tips over 6.5 points.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 7-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 120-53

By Spread: 97-75

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 365-186
By Spread: 306-253

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 15 Predictions

Well, that was close. I edged out a .500 against the spread on the strength of getting nearly every 4 o’clock game right. Good luck to everyone in their fantasy playoffs week 2 matchups.

Top 5:

1. Packers

2. Ravens

3. Patriots

4. Saints

5. Steelers

Falcons -11.5 over Jags, 31-13

-Falcons need it and the Jags don’t. Falcon big name players White, Jones, Turner, and Gonzalez should put up good counting stats.

Dallas -7 over Bucs, 27-13

-Dallas is hurting, and this is a “get right” game.

Carolina +6.5 over Houston, 21-23

-6.5 against the King of Cover? I don’t think so. Houston will win but probably won’t be able to put a huge lead out and stay on it.

Bengals -6 over Rams, 28-6

-From the vault of “unwatchable”…

Packers -13.5 over Chiefs, 28-6

-See above. I am glad that Ricky Stanzi is finally being given a chance though….wait, Kyle Orton is really starting? Ugh.

Bills +1.5 over Dolphins, 21-20

-Bills are more “in it” than the Fins are, and with Sparano gone the major impetus for Miami to work hard has been removed.

Saints -6.5 over Vikings, 34-17

-Someone explain this line. Maybe I give the Vikings a bit more credit if AP plays, but only 7 points?

Seahawks +3.5 over Bears, 20-21

-Bears get it out of desperation, but 3.5 is way too much to ignore.

Titans -6.5 over Colts, 21-13

-Titans run the ball like crazy and own possession/efficiency, cruising to a victory.

Giants -6.5 over Skins, 28-17

-Another line I just don’t get. How is this not 10 points at least? The Giants are rolling offensively and the Skins cannot stop anyone. There is a big game from Nicks coming here.

Lions -1.5 over Raiders, 27-20

-In the end, this is a case of a team with just a little more overall talent being defeated by a team with a superior ability to score and score fast. Lions win because of that.

Cards -7 over Browns, 24-10

-I have irrationally liked the Cards all year. It is starting to pay off. Somehow, despite Kolb, they are succeeding. And the Browns are pathetic.

Pats -6 over Broncos, 34-20

-The Pats are much better, overall and specifically on offense. But they have to be up by 15 in the 4^th for me to be comfortable. And actually, I think they will be.

PHI-NYJ is too close, and the comedy of errors here could be hilarious.

BAL-SD is too close to call. If the line drifts over 2.5 grab the points.

SF-PIT will entirely depend on Big Ben playing or not.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-5

By Spread: 7-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 113-47

By Spread: 90-69

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 358-180
By Spread: 299-247

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 14 Predictions

Good luck to all of those who are starting fantasy playoffs this week! 


Top 5:

1. Packers

2. Ravens

3. Patriots

4. 49ers

5. Saints

Falcons -3 over Panthers, 24-20

-Falcons need this, Panthers are feisty but not as good and technically out of it, so the Falcons take this. Matt Ryan has an awesome fantasy and real life day.

Ravens -17 over Colts, 34-13

-This could be like the Pats game and the Colts come on late in a game that is over. But, the Ravens are more like to have a late pick six and cover that way.

Chiefs +12.5 over Jets, 14-17

-I don’t think the Jets are that good, and the Chiefs aren’t as bad at you think. Yes, I talked myself into Tyler Palko.

Lions -10 over Vikings, 34-13

-Even if AP plays, the Vikings just don’t have enough. I know the Lions have been not great lately, but they lost to the Saints and Packers, which isn’t really a bad set to lose. The Lions put up a ton of points quickly here.

Saints -3.5 over Titans, 27-21

-Closer than most think because the Titans can run, but the Saints want that second seed. Chris Johnson keeps it close.

Bengals -2.5 over Texans, 27-17

-No corners, no Andre? Both things work to Cincy’s advantage, with the passing game excelling and lack of a true cover corner no longer an issue. I like the Bengals to win this AND get a wild card spot.

Bucs -2.5 over Jags, 24-13

-Neither team is very good but I have watched the Jags recently and I am just not sure how they score more than 13 points. The Bucs, despite their troubles, can do at least that.

Patriots -9 over Skins, 34-17

-This they will cover. The loss of Fred Davis and Trent Williams will hurt the Skins. Santana Moss could have a big day though.

Dolphins -3 over Eagles, 24-16

-Vick or no Vick, the Dolphins are playing well and the Eagles are not. Reggie could have a great day. Shady McCoy, of course, will find a way to score again though. Matt Moore!

Bears +3.5 over Broncos, 16-13

-Bears defense will stop Tebow, but goodness could this be an ugly game.

Cards +4.5 over SF, 20-21

-Because the Niners don’t score a ton, and the Cards are feisty lately.

Chargers -7.5 over Bills, 30-21

-Chargers are now playing decently, and the Bills are going in the wrong direction.

Packers -11 over Raiders, 34-20

-Yeah….no. Carson Palmer is a lock for a pick six. A terrible one. Like, it will make Eli’s last week look responsible.

Giants-Dallas, take the over. And most likely, it will be close.

Seahawks -5 over Rams, 20-6

-Not sure the Rams can score. Lynch should have a HUGE game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 5-6

By Spread: 4-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 104-42

By Spread: 83-62

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 349-175
By Spread: 292-240

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 13 Predictions

I had a really strong week last week and am now cruising along. The teams that are out of it are predictably starting to rest hurt players and put many others on IR. We should see more of the “team A should win because they are clearly better than team B and then they actually do win” games happen.  

Good luck to everyone who needs a win to get into their fantasy playoffs. 

Top 5:

1. Packers

2. Ravens

3. Patriots

4. 49ers

5. Saints

Falcons -3 over Texans, 24-14

-Texans cannot score as much as they will need to, and the Falcons will run the ball hard and grind out a win. The Falcons are actually playing really well in their last 6 games and if not for the Mike Smith 4^th down call in the Saints game, we’d be talking about them making a run at the 2^nd seed despite their bad start.

Panthers +3.5 over Bucs, 21-20

-I heard Josh Freeman connected with “gun” “mishap” and “throwing thumb” this week. I tend to avoid those situations.

Bengals +7.5 over Steelers, 23-24

-I want no part of picking a winner, but the points are delicious. The Steelers have not impressed lately, and Ben hurt his thumb this week again at practice.

Patriots -20.5 over Colts, 38-6

-This could be really ugly. Brady might have 500 yards again. The Colts have been a thorn in the sides of the Pats and vice versa for years. Bill doesn’t let up in these situations. Hey Colts fans, at least Manning is allowed to throw the ball again….on the sidelines.

Bears -6.5 over Chiefs, 20-6

-Whether it is Orton or Palko it is going to be ugly and that is going to counter any Caleb impact into this game.

Raiders -3 over Dolphins, 24-17

-I think these teams are actually pretty well matched. But this is one of those situations where one team is going to the playoffs and one team is almost done. It makes a difference in these situations, near the end of the year.

Bills -2 over Titans, 24-20

-A “home” game for the Bills pays off. They should have won last week and while the Titans are a tough little team they won’t be able to score with the Bills. Chris Johnson could be a disappointment here: I think the Bills stack it all against him.

Ravens -6 over Browns, 27-10

-Ravens beat Cincy. Cincy beat Browns. Ravens are good. Cleveland is not. Explain this being a 6 point line please?

Cards +4.5 over Cowboys, 23-24

-Cowboys win under the “team that is going somewhere versus team that isn’t” theorem. However, their history going into Arizona is a horror show. Take the points.

Packers-Giants…..yeah, just take the over. Either the Packers will win by 21 or the Giants by 3 by a 38-35 score. So, just take the over.

Saints -9 over Lions, 38-27

-This would have been a hell of game 5 weeks ago. Actually, it was one of the most popular Madden matchups 5 weeks ago. But now the Lions have lost any semblance of running, and that is the Saints biggest weakness. The Saints are going to eat up the Lions secondary, especially without Suh’s pass rush.

Jags +3.5 over Chargers, 21-20

-Chargers are reeling, traveling cross country for a Monday night game, and the Jags have a new coach who will run MJD like crazy. Take the 3.5 with the emphasis on the .5.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 14-1

By Spread: 11-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 99-36

By Spread: 79-55

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 344-169
By Spread: 288-233

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 12 Predictions

Weird week because I pushed exactly on two lines, but I still feel like I have a good feel now.

Short week, here are the picks a little early due to travel for Thanksgiving.

Week 12 Predictions:

Lions +6.5 over the Packers, 34-37

-The Lions could very well win this game, so the points are awfully tempting. The Packers are giving up WAY too many yards and this is the most logical place for a misstep to occur.

Dolphins +7.5 over Cowboys, 24-27

-Miami is playing really well right now and I would either take the points or not pick this game.

Ravens -3 over 49ers, 24-16

-This is the week where the field goal kicking Niners finally are defeated by a team that scores a few touchdowns. The Ravens play up to the level of competition (see games versus the Steelers), and I think this is a game where they assert how good they are. Ray Rice has a big combined yardage day and the Ravens win the battle of the brothers.

Cards +3.5 over Rams, 17-14

-I hate the NFC West.

Bills +8.5 over Jets, 14-17

-Yeah, I don’t know about the results but 8.5 points are too much.

Bengals -7.5 over Browns, 28-13

-The Browns are horrible; Bengals have had the best two losses in recent memory by any team. This may erupt into a romp and AJ Green should continue to take time to heal. Andy Dalton is for real kids.

Texans -3 over Jags, 27-10

-The Jags are horrible. Houston will be trying out Matt Leinart, but they should still be able to win this handily. Too bad no one will be watching.

Panthers -3.5 over Colts, 20-7

-Panthers aren’t great but the Colts are horrendous. Cam has a decent day but honestly will be done by the 3^rd quarter.

Titans -3 over Bucs, 24-20

-I oscillated with this one, but the Titans are at home and their defense is much better. If Hasselbeck doesn’t play, forget this.

Falcons -9.5 over Vikings, 24-10

-Just because the Vikings won’t have Adrian Peterson, and the Falcons are good enough to win this game. This smells like a “21-3 by the midpoint of the second quarter and we run it out from there” game.

Bears +5.5 over Raiders, 20-21

-Raiders probably win but even without Cutler the Bears are good enough to cover.

Seahawks -4 over Skins, 17-7

-Ugh, the Seahawks are thoroughly mediocre, but Clinton Portis could be carrying the ball this week for all we know in Washington this week, backed up by Stephen Davis.

Patriots -3.5 over Eagles, 33-17

-If it is Vick the Pats will punish him physically. If it is Young, Bill will mess with his head. The Pats will put 8 in to contain McCoy, the Eagles probably won’t have Maclin, and DeSean is about due for a boneheaded play filled week. The Pats TEs should roll over the Eagles here.

Steelers -10.5 over Chiefs, 28-6

-Oh Tyler Palko, wow. Bad luck for your first two starts. A friend told me this week “this is the guy who couldn’t make a bad CFL team last year”.

Saints -6.5 over Giants, 31-23

-Love the over for this game, but the Saints major weakness is stopping the run. The Giants cannot run it. That’s it.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-2

By Spread: 7-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 85-35

By Spread: 68-51

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 341-168
By Spread: 277-229

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 11 Predictions

Consistently putting up good weeks now and I feel like I have a better read on these teams. Let's get to the predictions: 

Fins -1 over Bills, 17-14

-Not sure about the Fins but I do know the Bills are falling apart. Fins are better than you think and Matt Moore is now comfortable.

Browns -1 over Jags, 14-10

-Let’s just move on. Browns win at home versus the Jags because neither is very good and this will be ugly to watch. I got nothing else to say.

Lions -6.5 over Panthers, 24-14

-Cam is coming back to earth and while the Lions aren’t awesome right now, they should walk all over the Panthers in a vital NFC game.  

Ravens -7 over Bengals, 24-16

-Ravens need this, are at home, and the Bengals won’t have AJ Green.

Cowboys -7.5 over Skins, 31-6

-The Skins are horrible. Truly horrendous. And Dallas is peaking.

Raiders -1 over Vikings, 24-17

-Raiders are just a more physical running/stop the run team. Peterson has a big day but it isn’t enough. Michael Bush has ANOTHER big game but still won’t get respect.

Bucs +14.5 over Packers, 20-31

-Packers win but for some reason I think the Bucs keep it respectable. Freeman could have a 350 yard, 3TD, 3 INT day.

Cards +10.5 over 49ers, 21-20

- Cards are frisky. Who covers Larry Fitz? Frank Gore may not play, be limited if he does. 49ers need to slip up sometime and it would be to a division foe because those games can be unpredictable.

Rams -3 over Seahawks, 20-14

-This is only because the Rams have the better RB, and QB, and are at home. The rest of the two teams are pretty comparable…that is, pretty comparably bad.

Chargers +3.5 over Bears, 27-30

-The Chargers need this so taking the points is the safest bet here. But the matchup is close except that the special teams for the Bears are so much better, and the Bears are at home.

Falcons -6 over Titans, 24-13

-Good team who needs it versus mediocre team that isn’t really going anywhere. Questions?

Giants -5.5 over Eagles, 34-14

-Going to be epic. Eagles are, like I said in the preseason, what is known as “not good”. Giants will make Vince Young look infantile and throw it all over the disorganized Eagles secondary.

Patriots -14 over Chiefs, 37-6

-Good luck Chiefs, seriously. And ESPN will AGAIN be getting killed on ratings in the second half of this blowout. I feel back for Palko, just not a good situation to walk into.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-4

By Spread: 9-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 74-33

By Spread: 61-47

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 330-166
By Spread: 270-225

BLISS