2016 NFL Week 3 Predictions

Cards -3.5 over Bills, 30-13

-SOOO exited. Someone gets to beat the Bills before NE does next week?! This could get ugly for the Ryans. Play all of your Cardinals.

Vikings +7.5 over Panther, 20-26

-Ugh, this feels like it could get blown out based on how the CAR-SF game went. But in a defensive game I’m talking that extra half point.

Bengals -3.5 over Broncos, 24-19

-Bengals need it more. Siemian is going to hit a bump somewhere here and this defense may well be it. Dalton needs some of the secondary players to step up outside of AJ before Tyler Eifert comes back.

Packers -7 over Lions, 34-23

-Death, taxes, the Packers beating the Lions in Green Bay. Rodgers fixes a few things this week and everyone can RELAX.

Ravens -1 over Jags, 20-17

-Ravens may not be good. It is looking like the Jags are absolutely not good. I won’t watch much of this game. Mike Wallace for real though?

Fins -9.5 over Browns, 24-13

-I won’t actually be betting this anywhere, but I’ll lay the points versus a rookie QB. Good luck Cody Kessler, I am rooting for you.

Giants -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-22

-This could get ugly in Washington really quickly. Cousins, you should have signed that contract. Giants are going to put both offensive and defense together one of these games, and it’ll be pretty awesome to watch.

Raiders +1 over Titans, 30-17

-Okay, I like both teams as up and coming. The Raiders are just a year further along. Carr has been great, if the defense can be even average, they will kill this team. If they can’t right the ship here, I will be backing off the Raiders. Mariota could quietly have a sneaky good game.

Niners +10.5 over Seattle, 9-13

-Seattle lays nothing larger than a field goal from here on out until that offensive line is fixed. They’ve scored 15 points all year!

Bucs -5 over Rams, 20-6

-Last game for Keenum? It should be. Bucs will find a medium between Week 1 (surprisingly good) and Week 2 (egg laying). Rams aren’t playing Seattle, so they won’t show any skill whatsoever. I also feel like Chris Long was their Patronus and they’ve lost something big with him in NE.

Chargers +3.5 over Colts, 30-27

-The Colts haven’t been even reasonably good on defense for 20 games now. They will fall behind by multiple scores at some point. The Chargers could put random ticket holders in at receiver and produce points because Rivers remains criminally underrated. Somehow McCluster, signed this week, has 50 yards and a score and they win outright.

Jets +3 over Chiefs, 23-19

-Chiefs aren’t dynamic on either side of the ball. It does turn out losing Charles and Houston actually makes you less exciting, and far less threatening. The Jets, on paper, look pretty good and if they avoid being outmaneuvered in crunch time with game management, they will win outright. Oh hi Andy Reid!

Eagles +3.5 over Steelers, 23-24

-This will be a tougher game that most would think because somehow the Eagles have been very tough. Ben outclasses Carson late, but I’ll take that extra half point to cover.

Cowboys -7 over Bears, 24-13

-Bears are quickly falling apart, and Cowboys are figuring some things out on offense. Easy pick for this one. Might be the first big Zeke game.

Saints -3 over Falcons, 34-31

-10-year anniversary of the Gleason game, Saints really need the win, Primetime Drew Brees at home. A lot of points will be scored here, a lot of changes to fantasy leagues on Monday night from what they were Monday morning.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 5-10

Record last week:

Straight Up: 17-14

By Spread: 10-21

Record last year:

Straight Up: 140-90

By Spread: 120-108

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 952-528
By Spread: 775-691

2016 NFL Week 2 Predictions

Week 2 Predictions:

I hate predicting week 1. I have a better feel on a lot of teams now. Let’s go.

Saints +4.5 over Giants, 27-30

-Giants find their offensive flow, but the Saints keep it close enough. I will almost always take 4.5 with the Saints versus non-elite teams. For gambling purposes, take the over though.

49ers +13.5 over Panthers, 13-24

-Strong Panthers win, but 13.5 points?! Are you crazy? That’s still a team that won an NFL game by 28 points.

Cowboys +3 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-20

-Something isn’t right with Washington. Well, something isn’t as we thought it’d be. The Cowboys develop some medium depth passing and facilitate running production to keep it close at least.

Fins +6.5 over Pats, 24-27

-Pats have a strong chance to win based on schemes, being at home, probably getting Gronk back, etc. However, 6.5 without your starting QB in a division game is a bit too much.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 28-27

-Bengals continue to be the well balanced, well put together team people don’t want to acknowledge. With the brilliance of AJ Green, this team could score with them too.

Browns +6.5 over Ravens, 17-19

-Not confident in the ability of the Ravens to score with a pumped up Josh McCown and an underrated set of receivers. Too many points to lay.

Texans -2.5 over Chiefs, 24-21

-Texans are putting it together on offense. I kind of like this team, if Brock can start to make it seem natural. Watt is only going to get healthier, and the Chiefs have some serious holes on defense. I especially don’t like the challenges they are having manufacturing a pass rush.

Lions -6 over Titans, 27-20

-I don’t like this, just laying the 6 because they are at home. Jim Bob Cooter! RB checkdown city!

Seahawks -7 over Rams, 20-6

-Normally I’d say “not enough points exist to get me to stay away from taking the Seahawks. They should crush LA like a grape”. However, this is exactly the type of game LA wins somehow. I am guessing this isn’t one of those times though. Seattle also is struggling on offense with health. Guess when you have an abhorrent offensive line one year, and then don’t address it, that can be a problem.

Cards -6.5 over Bucs, 30-22

-The Bucs are feisty, but this is a get right game for the Cards at home. Big David Johnson game here. If Carson struggles here, I might officially be worried though.

Jags +3 over Chargers, 28-24

-Chargers can’t score without Keenan Allen. Jags are much improved and we start to see it here.

Raiders -4.5 over Falcons, 27-20

-Falcons just don’t look very dynamic right now, and it seems the Raiders’ rise is for real.

Colts +6 over Broncos, 23-24

-Just cover. The Colts have always been able to play Denver tough. Trevor Siemian turns into a pumpkin at some point.

Packers -2.5 over Vikings, 24-16

-Um, yeah. Let me get on that Packers line really quickly. Prime time Aaron Rodgers only has to give a sub FG line? Bradford or Hill, doesn’t matter. Still love my Packers Super Bowl pick, Rodgers is otherworldy playing this position.

Bears -3 over Eagles, 20-14

-This is MNF? I don’t even care I’m missing this game. Experience over a rookie is my read here, low confidence selection though.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-6

By Spread: 5-11

Record last year:

Straight Up: 140-90

By Spread: 120-108

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 945-520
By Spread: 770-681

2016 Week 1 Predictions & Season Predictions

2016 NFL Playoff Predictions and Awards

Division Winners

AFC East – Patriots

AFC North – Bengals

AFC South – Colts

AFC West – Raiders

AFC Wild Cards – Chiefs & Texans

AFC Championship – Patriots over Bengals

NFC East – Giants

NFC North – Packers

NFC South – Panthers

NFC West – Cardinals

NFC Wild Cards – Seahawks & Saints   

NFC Championship – Packers over Cardinals  

Superbowl: Packers over Patriots

Awards

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

-Luck or Newton may have better raw numbers, but Rodgers will have a ton of wins and his typically efficient season

OPY: Newton

-A ton of touchdowns are still coming for Cam with better WRs this year.

DPY: JJ Watt

-This is one of those “until further notice this will likely be the pick each year” situations.

ORY: Zeke Elliot

-Talent and opportunity.

DRY: Jalen Ramsey

-Again, based on opportunity. Was going to be Joey Bosa, but that didn’t work out well.

COY: Belichick

-If he goes 12-4, 13-3 with Brady missing and so much hubbub…

Last season my spread picks were not nearly good enough. The goal is to clean that up a bit this year.

Week 1 Predictions:

Titans +1.5 over Viks, 20-13

-Just because I love Mariota and the Vikings are in transition at quarterback.

Chiefs -7 over Chargers, 27-17

-Someday, the Chargers will fix their running defense and offensive line health.

Bears +6 over Texans, 20-21

-Bears cover. Sneakily, they had the 10^th best offense last year and Cutler was a top 2 QB under pressure. Texans have a bunch of new toys they need to figure out how to use. Watt isn't fully healthy yet. 

Raiders +1 over Saints, 37-35

-Shootout alert! Irrational Derek Carr love! 

Packers -4.5 over Jags, 34-27

-The game that made me think how much I am allowed to allocate to line guessing this year! Wow this is delicious. 4.5? Aaron Rodgers?!

Bengals -2.5 over Jets, 23-17

-Bengals are just so physical on both lines, and the Jets’ offense will stay good as long as it takes the league to figure out Fitzmagick. Yeah…I’ll stay with the Bengals.

Browns +4 over Eagles, 20-19

-Just taking the points between two bad teams, one having a veteran QB and one with a rookie one.

Ravens -3 over Bills, 20-14

-Bills had the offseason from hell. Ravens quietly got healthy from their many injuries.

Falcons -3 over Bucs, 26-20

-Still the veteran team versus the young team. Almost Bucs.

Dolphins +10.5 over Seahawks, 21-27

-That’s just too many points for the first week of the season. Just need to cover.

Giants over Cowboys PK, 27-23

-All about the Romo injury. I like the Giants offense a little this year too.

Colts -4 over Lions, 27-14

-One team gains its superstar back, one loses theirs to retirement….4 point game? Yes please.

Cards -6 over Pats, 30-23

-I really like this Cards team. Too much in Arizona without Brady.

Ethnic Slurs +3.5 over Steelers, 27-30

-You like this pick? It’s really just for the cover versus a still below average secondary.

LA Rams (!) -2.5 over 49ers, 19-16

-The 49ers are going to be really bad. Blaine Gabbert everyone! Los Angeles has football again! 

Record last year:

Straight Up: 140-90

By Spread: 120-108

Lifetime record:

Straight Up: 935-514
By Spread: 765-670