2013 NBA Playoffs Round 3

The first few rounds are relatively easy: 1 vs 8 SHOULD be an simple call 99% of the time. The second round gets a little harder but normally you see something in round 1 that shows you something about each team, however small or large. The Spurs were going to beat the Dubs because Mark Jackson's team couldn't execute, especially late in games. The Bulls were too beat up to win. The Pacers were a more solid bunch than the Knicks' newly embraced ISO ugly offense. And the Thunder lost Westbrook.

But these Conference Finals have trimmed the excess and are only bringing the best to play. I am going to use this piece to logic myself to some conclusions. We will have to see if they make sense.

W2. Spurs versus W4. Grizzlies
This is extremely tough, and should be fantastic series. I am hoping for a long and healthy one, as the matchup has several juicy potential points. These teams are very different. The Spurs are efficient, quick, sabermetric, well rounded, have a deep bench, and have all the experience in the world. They have three stars who have done this year after year, and a young stud ready to make his name known.

The Grizz are what San Antonio used to be: Grit and Grind, slow it down, two big guys and a point guard, with an erratic but fiery backup guard off the bench. They even have the starting wing player no one likes (Tony Allen) similar to what Spurs had (Bruce Bowen).

Funny enough, both teams excel at long series, but for differing reasons. San Antonio makes adjustments so well. We saw it in the last round: the Spurs were lucky get a split in the first two games but then schemed around what Curry and Klay were doing and thoroughly dominated them over the next 4 games.

The Grizz love long series because of their Grit and Grind mentality. They wear you down, and by games 4-6 they have bruised you physically and struck mentally as well. See Clippers, Blake Griffin.

So how does one determine this series? Tony Parker and Marc Gasol are pretty much making the "best player in the series wins it" theory a jump ball. Home court isn't going to be crazy important here either. Pop is better than Hollins sure, but this isn't a Pop versus Vinny del Negro or Scottie Brooks type situation.

It came down to this: I think Parker dominates Conley more than any Memphis big can dominate a matchup with Splitter, who if healthy is going to be competent there. But more jmportantly, Manu is going to rock Bayless in this. I have zero trust in Bay less being consistent, especially defensively. Spurs win in 7, on the strength on their superior execution, bench play, and strength on the wings. I'll take Manu/Leonard/Green/Neal over Bayless/Prince/Allen.



E1. HEAT versus E3. Pacers

-There is a legit case to be made that the Pacers can do this. They match up well, with talent across the board. I trust Lance, George, and Hill to rotate through Wade and Lebron. David West and Roy Hibbert may literally eat Bosh for lunch.

But, the HEAT will play a stretch four enough to negate some of the inside strength of the Pacers, and the HEAT's bench will vastly outproduce Gerald Green, DJA, and Psycho T.

Sadly, HEAT in 6. Tyler Hansborough terrifies me. He's entering Kendrick Perkins area. But more than anything else, the Pacers' tendency for turnovers and not scoring for stretches makes this a win for Miami. Ugh, I feel dirty.



I guess I still have a HEAT over Spurs Finals, though begrudgingly. The Spurs could win that, but if they survive Memphis it will be with bumps and bruises. A lot would depend on health at that point, for Wade too.

2013 NBA Playoffs Round 2

Considering how quickly I made my picks for round 1, I did pretty well. Not only 7-0, with the Nets/Bulls result pending (I had the Nets), but I hit some of them exactly like Golden State/Memphis/Knicks in 6, and the heart of Spurs dominating the Lakers even if I said it would be 5.

So, Round 2, let’s go. I am very excited for these matchups, especially….

W1. Thunder versus W4. Grizzlies

-I love my Thunder, but this isn’t looking good for them. Durant should be his normal productive self: Prince is one of the few SF matchups he ever gets where he can legit outmuscle the guy. But the rest of this team is rough and tough. Gasol should dominate the middle on both ends, whether it is Perkins or (more intelligently) Collison on the other end.

We saw the Thunder struggle in their first three games sans Westbrook, and those struggles were legit and troubling. However, the question will be whether those struggles showed a fatal deficiency, or if they are the natural adjustment period of a team losing a star player. Perhaps the Thunder will just need a few games and then return to 95% of their peak potential from before, which would be enough to beat the Grizz. That would get them a series win in 7 most likely. However, I think it is more likely that the Grizz continue their roll, and just out muscle this team overall. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol lead the Grizz to a 6 game victory.

W2. Spurs versus W6. Warriors

-To me, this is the easiest pick this round, even more than whomever the HEAT get to beat up on. The Dubs did well in the first round, winning in 6 exactly how I picked it to happen. But they showed truly fatal flaws along the way. That collapse in game 6 was as much about them giving it up as it was Denver taking it. They won, but pretty much didn’t deserve to. Any mental errors will quickly lead to Spur points in this series. The Warriors also had a “happy to be here” vibe going at the end of game 6, which is dangerous. The Spurs had a “business as usual” vibe after their sweep. Which, by the way, was a week ago now.

Parker will be healthy. Ginobili will be healthier. And Golden State hasn’t won in 20 games in San Antonio. Andrew Bogut, nice resurgence buddy but good luck with Duncan. Yeah, going with the Spurs in 4, clean sweep.

E1. HEAT versus E4. Nets/E5. Bulls

-So as I am writing this, I don’t know the winner of Nets-Bulls tonight. I have to assume it will be the Nets, because of all the injuries to Chicago. However, the truth is, it does not matter much. Both the Bulls and the Nets have some of the needed pieces to pick apart Miami. Neither has a real chance of doing so. Miami is now well rested and ready to go, with Wade’s strange knee issue the only real concern.

The Bulls could make this somewhat of a series, but their health is so bad. It would take Deng and Rose coming back miraculously at 100% each for game 1 to be a legit threat. The Nets have the pieces, and they are healthy. Deron is a monster in that matchup, and Lopez would tower over the HEAT. Wallace and Johnson can do a veritable job of guarding Wade and Lebron while still being able to score somewhat themselves. But the Nets just cannot put it together it seems, and I don’t have a ton of confidence in PJ trying to outcoach Spo. No matter who it is, I think it is HEAT in 5.

E2. Knicks versus E3. Pacers

-Pacers in 6, I didn’t even need to think about it. If they had home court, it would be 5. However, MSG gets the Knicks a game, and so does the one random JR Swish outburst. Of course, the other JR Swish outburst also gives the Pacers a win. The coaching matchup clearly supports the Pacers here. Vogel, along with Lionel Hollins, is one of my favorite coaches right now.

The Knicks are undisciplined, and that ISO offense is ugly and boring. The Pacers are disciplined, balanced, have great chemistry, and quiet confidence. They take care of business, and have 5 guys who are comfortable in many roles. Hibbert can score 20 or board 15. George Hill could have 25 or 12 assists. Lance can play an awesome game and have 5-5-5, because his contributions may not show up on the box score.

However, the part I am tingling to see more than anything is Melo versus Paul George. George is ascendant right now, and if he can gets 80% of what Melo does, on about half the touches mind you, Pacers win this even easier than 6 games. And he clearly can. People aren’t paying attention because it is in Indiana, but Paul George is already Tracy McGrady-lite, and improving rapidly.

Oh, and the humor factor of Amare possibly returning will be tremendous as David West uses him as a turnstile.

2013 Playoff Prediction Results: 7-0, Nets/Bulls pending

2012 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

2011 Playoff Prediction Results: 12-3

So I had the Thunder over the HEAT for the title, and obviously that prediction is changing. The HEAT probably win the title in 85% of future scenarios, no matter who they get. I would say 65% HEAT/Spurs, 35% it is HEAT/Grizz. The Grizz would be a fascinating matchup however, and could really murder the HEAT down low while staying home on shooters. I don’t know if Lebron can guard Z-Bo for that many minutes. However, no one there could guard Lebron, so it doesn’t matter much anyways.

Side Prediction: Chris Paul is a Mav this time next year. Makes too much sense not to happen. 

-Bliss