Week 21 Predictions:
Conference Round
Panthers -5.5
over Broncos
-I have been
working on comparisons for these two teams from the last few Super Bowls, and
this terrifies me. I want to support the Panthers. The numbers support the
Panthers. And their relative performances in the post season scream Panthers.
However, I think
the best comparison game is the Super Bowl between the 07-08 Pats and Giants.
Award winning, record breaking QB on the top scoring offense (Brady and
Newton), underrated defenses by those relative teams with playmakers at each
level (Seymour/Charles, Bruschi/Luke, Asante/Norman). The other team
(Giants/Broncos) spent all year pulling wins out of their butts, have a
Manning, and have a dominant pass rush/D-Line. Of course, that comparison doesn’t
help me much because the Giants WON that game, and I really feel like Carolina
will win this one.
Cam is simply so
much better than Peyton it isn’t funny. Perhaps the better game comparison is
from two years ago: Seattle/Carolina have the dominant defense with crazy
athleticism and a young dynamic QB. Denver has many of the same pieces, but its
defense is in the position the offense used to be. Manning remains a weak post
season QB and that is unlikely to change here. I called a blowout in that
Seattle game, felt great about it, and then watched it happen.
-Carolina has
met each challenge this year. They would be an astounding 18-1 if they win this
game. In talking to a friend this week and I summarized as thus: they don’t
have a dominant characteristic (no 50+ consecutive weeks or defense not
allowing 10 points per game), but their body of work is a dominant feat. They
remind me a little of the 03-04 Pats actually, the team that won 20+ straight
games. They found ways to win and even win big, and got contributions from many
areas.
-The injuries to
Jared Allen and Thomas Davis worry me a little, but the defense is still
stocked with playmakers. The key to the game should be the ability for Carolina
to move it through the air. Denver should take away Greg Olsen and other
TEs/FBs should be occupied helping with edge pass rushers. It will be up to the
WRs, especially the 3rd and 4th WRs, to get open and make
plays. I think Cam makes the magic happen here. Peyton is also a key because
the one positive thing he has done since coming back from “injury” is not throw
picks. That has to end here, and probably will. I think the game turns on the Panthers
getting up and Peyton making a major mistake to bury himself further.
24-13 Panthers over Broncos
Record last
week:
Straight Up: 0-2
By Spread: 0-2
Record this
year:
Straight Up: 140-89
By Spread:
120-107
Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 935-513
By Spread: 765-669
Straight Up: 935-513
By Spread: 765-669
