2014-2015 NBA Playoffs Round 4

I have had the Warriors for a few rounds now, and am not changing. They were the best team all year, and nothing has substantially changed. Dubs in 5 over the Cavs. A sweep wouldn’t surprise me.

Honestly, I had to take a step back before making my prediction because I wanted to remove my biases. I have never liked Lebron, just not my style of superstar. The Cavs team is built terribly, and is going to sink itself this offseason by extending JR, Iman, and Thompson while Love runs away. They traded a career of Wiggins for an incomplete season of Love, which sounds insane. They run painful offensive sets and their defense, while much better in the playoffs to be fair, is not that good. Kyrie is a turnstile.

Meanwhile, I love these Warriors. Curry is what I made Steve Nash be in 2K for years: a freak shooter and passer who has 30 point/10 assist games with 7 3s. It just never happened in real life until Steph came into the league. Klay won me a fantasy title at the end of his rookie year (the Dubs were terrible and injured so they let a rookie SG just take as many shots as he wanted. It was fantastic for fantasy purposes). Barnes was one of my favorite college players. Bogut was a 2K mainstay in the early part of his career: I had sneaky Bucks’ wins when my opponents couldn’t name half the team (Redd and Mo Williams!). Iguodala was one of my favorite players of the last decade, still an underrated (if now overpaid) Swiss Army knife, leader, and awesome competitor. Barbosa can get a ring to represent all those Suns from the mid  to late 00’s that deserve one. However, I think my biases can be put aside for this prediction. Simply, the Warriors are so much better by any metric. They are a child of the D’Antoni Suns and 14-15 Spurs.

Honestly, I don’t think the Cavs are that good. I feel stronger about this one on paper than I did about the Spurs over the Cavs last season. They Xs and Os are more conclusive. There is a leadership factor to input because Lebron has been here and Golden State has not. However, Golden State isn’t exactly a young team. Green. Barnes, and Klay are still relatively green. However, Green and Barnes have been in the playoffs every year of their career. Steph is in year 6, Bogut and Lee have 10 years in the NBA at this point, and guys like Barbosa, Iguodala and Livingston have been around a long while. The Cavs, outside of Lebron and Perkins, really don’t have much more experience under pressure. If anything, they have less. Kyrie, Thompson, and Shumpert have few high leverage reps in their career.

Kerr has outcoached Blatt all year. Kerr gets the rookie coach title, but worked as a GM for so many years with a good team in Phoenix (and now has high class assistant coaches with him in Golden State) that his relative coaching age isn’t “rookie”. Blatt has been better in the playoffs than the regular season, but still makes stupid mistakes.

In terms of matchups, there are two glaring issues. The first is that there is nowhere to hide Kyrie. He can’t guard Steph, and Klay/Barnes would be a disaster in the post or while running around screens. No matter what you do, Kyrie is a sieve defensively. Take him out of the game because of his defensive liabilities, and then you don’t have to worry as much on the other end about defending the CLE PG spot.

The second issue is Lebron. No one can guard him, still. However, in the playoffs his jumper is broken and I don’t think a week is going to fix it. For the first time in a long time, Lebron is in part getting stats and impact through sheer numbers of possessions, not shot efficiency. Part of his allure was that he got 25 points on 15 shots. Now he is getting 30 on 25 shots. The 3s are not falling. So, the gameplan should be to find people who can slow him down and force him to take jumpers. Ignore the times he makes them and go forward. The Spurs did it with Leonard. Most teams have 1 or 0 guys who can make an attempt. Jimmy Butler did okay, and Carroll, before the injury, was again okay at it. The reason I love this matchup for the Warriors is that they have 4 guys who can do an acceptable job on Lebron.

Draymond Green is a great match for Lebron among all available defenders. Iguodala has always been a good option and is still viable. Harrison Barnes has the length and youth to be a really good third defensive option and one that Golden State doesn’t have to panic about when a switch happens. Klay Thompson isn’t the greatest option on Lebron, but he plays good hard defense using his length on opponents. He will have Kyrie I’d assume (consider how well Klay defends CP3 and Mike Conley), but like with Barnes the Warriors won’t panic if he gets switched on Lebron. Most teams would love to have Klay as the 4^th option defensively on Lebron.

Generally, the Warriors can switch just about everything and that is a major key to their success defensively. Bogut guarded Tony Allen as the key adjustment in the second round for goodness’ sake. The Cavs always have to hide Kyrie, and bench Mozgov when something just doesn’t work with him. The Warriors may blitz with the Curry/Klay/Barnes/Iggy/Green lineup and I have no idea how the Cavs contain that unless they try Lebron at the 5 himself. The 3 point shooters Cleveland uses in James Jones and Mike Miller would get abused this series where they walked about unscathed in the Hawks’ series. Plus, you know, there is the Curry problem. If Lebron covers Curry that’d be most effective, but would have devastating impact in the rest of the matchups. Barnes, Green, and Iggy would kill whoever they got in the cross match.  

The numbers suggest a very efficient series victory for Golden State. I think Golden State got its scare in the past series injury wise and in the previous series with their invincibility bubble popped. Cleveland has been overachieving for a while now, and taking advantage of a really easy Eastern Conference. Curry completes the incredibly hard (and statistically unlikely) task of being able to beat each of the other four All-NBA performers in 4 consecutive rounds.

2014-2015 NBA Round 3 Predictions

Well, I got both of the Eastern Conference matchups wrong and the West right. Hopefully that means my Warriors pick is still good and my read there is on.

For the Eastern Finals, I am taking 1. Hawks over 2. Cavs in 6 games.

-The Hawks are extremely well balanced offensive team. The Cavs did okay defensively versus the Celtics and Bulls, neither of which is an elite or even very good offensive team. The Hawks, if they are on, are a different test. At some point, this inefficient offense by Lebron and the lack of support elsewhere on the roster is going to catch up with them. I will say though, if the Hawks are the same team that played the first four games versus the Wizards, the Cavs will win this series. I think we see a team that is a step up from that though. Also, the thought of betting on JR Smith or Kyrie Irving to stay with Kyle Korver on a thousand screens and cuts makes me feel really good about this Atlanta pick. Korver is finding that stroke at some point.

For the Western Finals, I am taking 1. Dubs over 2. Rox in 5 games.

-The Warriors are ridiculously balanced, found their groove in the last three games of that Memphis series, and now find a team much like their own but less disciplined and tired. Honestly, a sweep wouldn't stun me. 

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-The Warriors make the most sense to me still, and I’d take them overall versus the field actually.  

2014-2015 NBA Playoffs Round 2

East:

5. Wizards over 1. Hawks in 6 games

-The Hawks have started to straighten it out, but if you can’t guard the Nets the Wizards aren’t going to be a reprieve. The offense the Wizards ran this year was painful to watch and disciplined defense by the Hawks will handle it very easily. However, the Wizards aren’t running that offense. They have spent far more time with only Gortat or Nene on the floor and Porter/Pierce as the forwards. This lineup is not only effective offensively; it nicely matches up with the Hawks. The Wizards are rested, have the best player in the series in John Wall (Horford is almost as good, but not nearly as dynamic and is hurt right now), and generally have the look of a young team coming together. I also think Bradley Beal breaks through in this series.

3. Bulls over 2. Cavs in 6 games

-This is when I have to take a step back and say “Do I think this will happen or do I want this to happen?”. I think Chicago wins this and there is solid logic behind it. The Bulls are better at 3 positions, and Rose at anywhere near 90% can play Kyrie hard. Lebron either A. plays the 3 and leaves the spacing horrid for the Cavs or B. Plays the 4 and has to spend the series rough against Gibson, Noah, or Mirotic. The Bulls have a better bench (with JR out for 2 games and Tristan now a starter), and a better coach. Momentum (I know, that word is dangerous) is on the Bulls’ side. They finally got their offense together at the end of the Milwaukee series, and the Cavs are reeling from suspensions and injuries.  

West:

1. Dubs over 5. Grizz in 5 games

-Let’s get this done right off the start: The Grizzlies will kill the Warriors at the 4-5 positions. However, the Warriors are going to kill the Grizzlies literally everywhere else. Shooting, loose balls, passing, fast break points, second chance points, penetration by guards. Curry and Klay are going to outclass the Memphis backcourt even if Conley plays. Really, this shouldn’t be close.

2. Rockets over 3. Clippers in 7 games

-The Clippers will be a bit too beat up and emotionally drained to win this. If Chris Paul does miss at least the first game, the Rockets will get rolling and really put the pressure on the Clippers. I wouldn’t have picked this without the reemergence of Dwight, but that makes a huge difference in this series. Harden will accumulate a lot of fouls and lead them to a tight series victory.

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-My Spurs went down, but as first round defeats go that was an honorable one. The Clippers can’t do this four times, so I’d eliminate down to the Warriors, Bulls, and Cavs (Memphis if Conley is able to go). Warriors would now be my favorite, and probably now have the best coach left.