NFL 2018 Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Super Bowl Predictions

One more time. It really feels like it may be the last, and I’ll ruin the suspense right now. I’m not picking against Tom Brady.

Pats -2 over Rams, 27-23

-The most fascinating matchup to me is actually not the Pats O-Line versus the Rams D-Line. I know Donald and co. are really good, but overall since the two Giants Super Bowls there has been an enhanced focus on dominating up front for the Pats. I think the emphasis is on keeping Brady clean, running the ball a lot, and pushing the D-Line backwards. The Rams thrive on making the QBs make quick decisions fearing Donald, and then the corners feasting on those quick decisions. I trust Brady to make good quick decisions, and Donald to be eliminated as a primary factor.

To me, it is the Pats normal defensive strategy of taking away a specific offensive concept or player from the other team. In this case, I’m not sure who that is. I’d normally say Gurley, but who knows with him right now. Woods and Cooks are co-#1s unlike anything we have seen for a little while. Perhaps Bill is going to look at it more like taking away deep and mid passing zones, or trying to fluster Goff who likely still is the most individually weak link on the Rams offense even if he is relatively capable overall. In any case, McVay’s creativity and the equally distributed talent on the Rams likely results in their ability put up points.

But good luck stopping NE right now. All season I was waiting for the team to gel and coalesce one offensive identity. They have done that, and at the right time. Other Pats teams I saw peak too early, something that you don’t complain about as it is happening, but you wish it could work later in the season. I think the experience level and difference at QB will be a huge difference in this game, and the pattern of the Rams not blowing teams out/having to come back late mixed with NE starting out with guns blazing. Super Bowls are normally shorter, lower scoring, and the first halves blaze by in a 10-6 kind of way. I see NE going out like 14-0 and the Rams having to play catchup. We haven’t had a one-sided Super Bowl in a while, and I am wondering if this is it. I predicted a close score, but only due to last minute score to make it close.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-1

By Spread: 1-1

Record in 2018:

Straight Up: 154-87

By Spread: 125-113

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1416-771
By Spread: 1162-1026

NFL 2018 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Championship Round Predictions

Almost there on both. Oh well, time for title games! It does seem to be the matchups we thought all along. They will be entertaining games, and any Super Bowl matchup would be fun, full of good storylines, and produce a viable champion.

Saints -3 over Rams, 30-26

-I love the number. If it were 3.5, I’d honestly probably be thinking of taking the points and the dog. However as talented as McVay and Goff are, Payton and Brees have been doing it just that much longer. Meanwhile I’ll take Kamara over a banged up and rusty Gurley and Ingram over the upstart CJ Anderson. The Brees/Michael Thomas connection will be key to watch. I looked back at last week and really saw a Rams team playing a flawed Cowboys team and not really put them away while the Saints came out of some rust to really run the last 2/3s of that game. This is in New Orleans, it'll be rocking, I’m taking the Saints.

Pats +3.5 over Chiefs, 27-21

-I’m nervous about this, but I’m betting on the infrastructure here. The Chiefs didn’t erupt last while the Pats came out and very much eviscerated the Chargers. Pats have the experience and superior coach (though not by as much as you think), and their QB can stand with PM just fine. I’m not sure how the Chiefs will stay with Pats running backs out in pass routes, and the Pats secondary will do okay versus the vertical passing game especially in the cold weather. Michel has a big game and the Pats control the time and tempo with a victory.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-2

Record in 2018:

Straight Up: 153-86

By Spread: 124-112

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1415-770
By Spread: 1161-1025

NFL 2018 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Divisional Round Predictions

A good wild card round netted me a 4-0 record ATS. I am still looking for my first 11-0 post season in a major sport, let’s keep on that quest here.

Colts +5.5 over Chiefs, 30-28

-Okay, the Chiefs were great this season. To be sure, they had the most explosive, fluid offense this year. However, the Chiefs have been frontrunners a little bit. They scored first so often, ran up first quarter double digit leads, and could tee off with pass rushers. The Chiefs have had the sort of bad half of the season that sometimes results from too much easy early success. They performed worse down the stretch, could not put together 4 quarters of good offense, and the run defense can get exposed. However, it may not matter, because 20 minutes of the Chiefs being fully turned on can be enough to win the game anyways. But I believe in the Colts now. They play close, they’ve had good wins, bad wings, good losses, and bad losses. They machine out points and can explode for them. But offensive and defensive lines matter so much right now, I can’t ignore how good the Colts have been. I believe in their ability to go up early. I believe in their ability to hold serve score for score, and I believe in their ability to come back from a deficit. That’s enough for me to take the 5.5.

Rams -7 over Cowboys, 27-19

-McVay over the Clapper is pretty much this pick. The Rams have not been right the last month or so, but they did enough to earn a bye with 13 wins and have had the bye week to regroup. The Cowboys are still more limited than they should be on offense, and don’t execute in key situations when they need to. The Rams will be able to spread them out and blow this out. Cowboys can and should run Zeke into the ground, but this might be where the overpriced and underperforming defensive investments come up big for the Rams. LA will probably double Cooper, and we will see if Dak can find other options to score at the level they will need to for victory to be possible for Dallas.

Pats -4 over Chargers, 33-27

-Okay, truth be told the Chargers are a better team. They proved themselves to be fluid and dynamic, especially in how they dealt with Baltimore last week. Their defense is well suited to stopping modern offenses, and should line up with the Pats. But the thing is this is being played in NE, it will be cold and potentially snowing, Rivers has never beaten Brady, and the travel is piling up for the Chargers. The Pats have been at home for the better part of a month now, and played games versus Buffalo, the Jets, and had a week off. The Chargers played Baltimore, went to Denver, and went to Baltimore. Physically, the Pats are just in a much better place and for the first time all year will have had some time to sit and intentionally put together their offense. I think it will pay off in a big way this week with a strong win.

Saints -8 over Eagles, 37-26

-Okay, I know the record for Foles in the playoffs. But I truly believe the Saints are the best team this season, and a week off will do nicely to settle some nagging injuries. We saw this fight a few months ago, with the Saints making it more of a rout. I’m not sure what has changed over than Foles, and Foles isn’t a new set of good defensive backs. Saints roll over this one en route to the NFC title game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 4-0

Record in 2018:

Straight Up: 150-85

By Spread: 122-110

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1412-769
By Spread: 1159-1023

NFL 2018 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Round

Wild Card Predictions

These lines have already moved a lot. Time to nail down the picks for one of the most entertaining Wild Card weekends in recent memory.

Colts +1 over Texans, 27-23

-Colts are not the more talented team. It is definitely the Texans. Watson/Hopkins/Watt/Clowney are so good. However, the Colts are far far healthier and trending in the right direction. I like the QB experience advantage for the Colts, and the offensive line issue for Houston is real.

Seahawks +2 over Cowboys, 26-20

-I don’t trust the Cowboys. I think Zeke has a big game, but I’m nervous about their ability to have dynamic plays and finish drives. Russell has so much experience in the playoffs and in big games, and I can’t bet for the Clapper versus the vast experience of Pete.

Chargers +2.5 over Ravens, 26-16

-I know, this game was played only two weeks ago and the Ravens won. But, I thought it was odd then. I know I am asking the Chargers to go cross country and play a 1pm game, and that is hard. However, that is why I am picking a close game and not a win with a solid margin. I just don’t think the Ravens are there yet. Rivers versus Jackson is a huge experience mismatch. The Ravens defense is legit, no doubting that. But LA will have its full contingent available and be prepared with what happened in December.

Eagles +6.5 over Bears, 24-16

-I like the Bears. But I am NOT betting against this hot Eagles team, the reigning champions, with Foles at QB, getting 6.5 points. No way. I hope the Bears can put it all together. But they feel like the Jags. Great defense, managed the QB all year, and it will fall short eventually.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-2

By Spread: 9-4

Record in 2018:

Straight Up: 147-84

By Spread: 118-110

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1409-768
By Spread: 1155-1023