NFL 2012 Week 17 Predictions

Happy Holidays everyone, and congrats to those who now have fantasy titles, welcome to the club. And for those who finished in second or third (I have 1 and 3 of those finishes myself this year), congrats as well on strong seasons. Last regular season predictions, enjoy. 

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Nothing Changed there.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both shaky but it really seems they will be there in the end.

In Contention: Atlanta and Seattle. For different reasons, don’t know if they will be there in the end.

Wild Card:  Houston, despite what has happened to them lately. And the Giants. Just in case. Even if they are eliminated, I will probably list them here. Just to be safe. I don’t have residual issues at all.

The picks are going to be fast and quick, as many of these games don’t matter and will be hard to predict.

Week 17

-Bengals over Ravens is meaningless. I am going to guess a Baltimore win, as they kind of want the 3 seed.

Saints -5 over Panthers, 34-27

-Should be a high score here, but the Saints are hot enough to end the season with a win and return to equilibrium at .500.

Bears -3 over Lions, 27-19

-Simply a case of one team needing it and the other wanting a record. Stafford throws, oh, 48 times easily? By the way, Calvin isn’t actually getting a lot of garbage time yards, so I don’t know why people are fixating on that. What is more interesting is his propensity for getting tackled at the one yard line.

Steelers -7 over Browns, 23-6

-This pick has everything to do with how horrendous Cleveland is going to perform on offense. Thad Lewis? Ugh.

Packers -3.5 over Vikings, 37-20

-Peterson has a HUGE day but the Packers want that one seed.

Texans -3 over Colts, 19-10

-Colts are going to be the 5, and very well could see the Texans in two weeks AGAIN (I have a standing prediction with a friend that the Colts go into Baltimore and kill the Ravens if it schedules out that way). So the Texans kind of try to just technically seal up the situation and the Colts play really vanilla to not let anything get out about game plans.

TEN-JAX is also meaningless, and just should be an agreed-upon tie so that the game doesn’t have to take place. Wait, I have Justin Blackmon as a key player this week in a title game. PLAY ON!

Dolphins +10.5 over Pats, 23-24

-Something is telling me the Pats are going to punt this game to avoid Denver in the next round by purposely falling to the 4 seed. And in general, I just don’t trust teams like the Pats in the final game in situations like this. Bill will do whatever he thinks best. I’m just not going to bet on what that will be. If they try even a little they win this, but 10.5? No way.

Bills -4.5 over Jets, 21-12

-Bet on the team without a center, or the team without skill? I guess I’ll go with Buffalo. At least they are at home and have Spiller. Wait, Sanchez is playing? Okay, I’m definitively in.

Giants -7 over Eagles, 26-15

-One more chance for Vick to turn it over 4 times. Or, you know, catch fire and convince a team to make him their starter next year. (Please come to the Jets Vick. Please! I’m literally salivating).

ATL-TB is meaningless, no idea how long ATL starters play.

Cards +16.5 over 49ers, 13-26

-Always take over a two touchdown spread when a team A. Starts throwing to its best guy again and B. the opponent just got butt whooped. That duo of situations has gotta find a place in my manifesto somewhere…

Chiefs +16.5 over Broncos, 13-24

-Broncos probably win this easy, but then they start looking ahead and resting guys. NE will probably somehow be down 23-0 at this point while Brady is having a Mountain Dew on the sidelines as Ryan Mallett does his best Drew Bledsoe out there and Denver will get the hint. Plus, Jamaal Charles IS really good.

SD-OAK: I predict because neither team will be able to field a complete unit, they agree to take knees from halftime onward. And while watching from the sidelines, Ryan Mathews breaks another clavicle.

Rams +10.5 over Seahawks, 17-27

-Rams play the Hawks close, are better than most think, and this is another game where we have no idea what will matter at this point in time. If the Niners are up 24-0 on the Cards at half, Seattle may look to build the trade value of Matt Flynn.

Cowboys +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 29-27

-I’m taking the 3.5 because that is just too big a number in such a close contest, but I am taking Dallas for the win because the Cowboys have reverse suckered us in. they lost the game they really needed last week. Now, in Washington, against the wonderrook, we are all expecting them to choke. That is why I predict they will win.

This game, ladies and gentleman, is the holiday playoff gift to us all. Especially if it is Dallas who wins. Whoever they host, Chicago or Seattle most likely, just take in the Wild Card round, ignoring the line, and celebrate your victory as Romo or RGIII look so overwhelmed. I’m already excited.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 13-2

By Spread: 11-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 133-71

By Spread: 109-94

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 522-268
By Spread: 429-367

NFL 2012 Week 16 Predictions

Almost to the end. At least several teams showed us their true colors last week, in the form of total roll overs and give ups (I’m looking at you, Jags, Chiefs, Bucs, and Lions). Good on Arizona and Oakland for kind of trying. I would include the Ravens in the list of four teams above but they were actually trying so that’s scary.

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Just the most likely combination to make it right now, both are coming together well.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both showed quality last week. Both also showed enormous flaws.

In Contention: Atlanta and Houston. The “hey guy, we are here too!” tier. They lose to good teams, and beat up on bad ones. Guess what happens when they would play the four teams above them in this column in January?

Wild Card: New York Giants. I don’t want to talk about it. I don’t like them, I just won’t be turning my back on them ever.

Falcons -3.5 over Lions, 34-17

-Oh YEAH. Lions have packed it in. Coach getting fired number 1.

Dolphins -4 over Bills, 17-12

-One team is trying, one isn’t. Coach getting fired number 2.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Simmons said the Steelers are aggressively mediocre. Sounds about right. Bengals are better than people gave them credit for.

Colts -7 over Chiefs, 20-6

-I’d be insulted with a 7 point line if I were the Colts. Coach getting fired number 3.

Vikings +9.5 over Texans, 24-27

-Peterson.

Saints +1.5 over Cowboys, 29-27

-Cmon everyone. This is what the Cowboys do. They get us all excited, we are all looking forward to the matchup for the Cowboys next week versus Washington, and then they lose the preceding game. Brees is going to throw it 60 times no matter what. This clearly has to happen.

Patriots -14.5 over Jags, 41-14

-Pats angry. Chad Henne. Coach being fired number 4.

Panthers -9.5 over Raiders, 24-10

-Panthers trying to save Rivera’s job? I don’t know if that will work but they will blow out the hapless Raiders here. So, coach being fired number 5 and 6.

Chargers +3.5 over Jets, 14-12

-Chargers are being given 3.5, and that is the only reason I am taking this sorry excuse for a matchup. Coach being fired number 7 and 8.

Rams +3.5 over Bucs, 24-23

-I think the Bucs have given up. And I am starting Sam Bradford in a title game this week. So, just hoping really?

In all seriousness, full respect to what Fisher has done with this Rams team. It just feels different, they are respectable. I was the first to harp on how he underachieved with the Rams (as many seasons out of the playoffs than in, record near .500 lifetime), but being competitive each week and trying is worth a lot. Respect.

Packers -12.5 over Titans, 31-10

-I know the Packers haven’t blown anyone out, but it is coming, the Titans are not good (they should have killed the Jets), and now the Packers really need it. Jeff Saturday is being benched. Nice guy, but I think it was time and that will improve the pass protection for the Pack.

Browns +13.5 over Broncos, 24-27

-Something doesn’t feel right here. I don’t think the Broncos get tripped up, but they may be looking at the final two games at home as gimmes. I think the Chiefs game is, but the Browns are a tough team and this could be closer than it appears. Feels a little like Chiefs over the Packers in week 15 last year. And sadly, coach being fired number 9.

Bears -5.5 over Cards, 21-10

-Neither team is right, but the Cards are done. So, probably, is Coach Wiz. Coach being fired number 10.

Giants -1 over Ravens, 20-16

-The Trainwreck bowl, at least right now. I’ll take the NASCAR package over the unblinking Jim Caldwell.

Seahawks PK over Niners, 20-17

-Simply due to how hot the Seahawks are right now and the fact that SF had to travel on shorter rest than usual.  A great game, however, and hopefully terrible for their running backs for my fantasy purposes.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 12-4

By Spread: 9-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 120-69

By Spread: 98-91

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 509-266
By Spread: 418-364

NFL 2012 Week 15 Predictions

Okay, not a good week by me. I got a lot of the basics right, but the lines were all off for some reason. I am hoping with many playoff pictures clearing up, I will be able to hit a better percentage this week.

By the way, I am staying away from NYJ-TEN this week, mainly because I have no idea how that is going to go. However, the best part of that game is that because it is the MNF game, we all will know how our fantasy matchups ended up because NO ONE SHOULD BE PLAYING ANYONE FROM THAT GAME IN A SERIOUS MATCH.  

Bengals -4.5 over Eagles, 28-22

-One team needs it. One team is not only out but got its “crap we can’t go into the offseason on a 12 game losing streak so let’s just win ONE of these games” game out of the way. I am going to totally ignore this logic with Arizona later.

Ravens +3.5 over Broncos, 23-24

-Broncos are hot right now but these Ravens are still tough. Ravens could do the Pats a favor and pull the Broncos out of the 2-seed conversation, but I think it is more likely only a cover.

Packers -3 over Bears, 27-20

-My team is just going the WRONG way. Marshall continues his streak and has a big game here though.

Colts +9.5 over Texans, 24-30

-If this were in Indy, I’d pick the upset. The timing is just right. But it is in Houston, so the cover is the deal here. 9.5 points GIVEN to a 9-4 team. Um, disrespect much? You know what? Screw it. Colts +9.5 over Texans, 24-23. I’m going for it.

Jags +7.5 over Fins, 14-20

-The Dolphins lay 7.5 to no team.

Vikings +2.5 over Rams, 21-20

-One team has one dynamic player. There’s your difference.

Giants +1.5 over Falcons, 31-13

-Remember the playoffs? The Giants do, but I am pretty sure all the Falcons have spent some time trying to repress that memory.

Saints -3.5 over Bucs, 30-26

-A lot of points, Bucs are now falling off so the Saints win.

Browns +2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 22-20

-Assuming RG3 doesn’t play or plays rusty and slow. Browns are better than you think, and the Dog Pound should get up for this one. This is a nice young team learning how to win. Of course, you could say the same about Washington, but their rookie is injured.

Panthers +3.5 over Chargers, 21-20

-Cam is hot, and the Chargers still have Norv Turner.

Lions -6 over Cards, 31-3

-Cards are just bad. Brian Hoyer, fresh off the waiver wire, is clearly their best option at QB. Ugh.

Seahawks -5.5 over Bills, 24-13

-Bills weren’t good then lost a top three player on their team and their starting center. Seahawks D might be the most common “player” on championship teams this year.

Raiders -3 over Chiefs, 17-11

-Because at least the Raiders can score. Somewhat.

Cowboys +2 over Steelers, 20-19

-Because the Steelers still aren’t completely healthy and the Cowboys are inherently unpredictable.

Patriots -5 over 49ers, 30-20

-It would be hard to predict NE to beat two tough opponents in a row, but the games are at home, the Pats don’t lose there or in December, and they are clicking like crazy right now. Pats’ DVOA is somewhat ridiculous. Two quick points: 1. Brady took the three extra days after Thanksgiving to break down SF then since he knew he would need the extra time to study them. 2. The Pats, assuming Gronk is back and healthy for the playoffs, will have Lloyd Welker Gronk and Hernandez together for the 1^st time since Week 1. This could be the third highest scoring team EVER and have its best players healthy only once or twice all season long.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-6

By Spread: 4-10

Record this year:

Straight Up: 108-65

By Spread: 89-84

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 497-262
By Spread: 409-357

NFL 2012 Week 14 Predictions

Falcons -3.5 over Panthers, 34-10

-Best eliminator pick

Ravens +2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-20

Bears -2.5 over Vikings, 24-16

Bengals -2.5 over Cowboys, 31-27

Chiefs +6.5 over Browns, 17-19

Bucs -8.5 over Eagles, 20-10

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Chargers +6.5 over Steelers, 13-19

Rams +3.5 over Bills, 19-14

Colts -4.5 over Titans, 27-10

Dolphins +10.5 over 49ers, 10-20

Cards +10.5 over Seahawks, 12-22

Saints +4.5 over Giants, 27-31

Packers -6.5 over Lions, 31-23

Pats -3.5 over Texans, 28-23

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 7-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 100-59

By Spread: 85-74

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 489-256
By Spread: 405-347