NFL 2010 Week 17 Predictions

WEEK 17 NFL predictions and statements:

Well, I didn’t do great last week, but it was a week where teams came out and established who they truly were. We can see a much clearer playoff picture ahead.

I also want to state my following top 10 reflect those teams that will likely be in the playoffs. See, I still believe the Chargers are one of the better teams in the league (and the stats back that up), but I cannot include them. So, let’s do it:

My top 10: previous ranking in parentheses

1. New England (1) – Win or lose in the finale, this is the best regular season team.

2. New Orleans Saints (5) – That’s right, I said it! The Saints are the second best team. They just beat the former second best team, despite playing like crap. And they are still the defending champs. If somehow they get home field, watch out.

3. Pittsburgh (3) – I still don’t like it, but they win.

4. Baltimore (6) – This team is technically sound, and has a decent shot at the 2 seed. But, they share Atlanta’s issues with killer spirit.

5. Atlanta (2) – See Baltimore.

6. Chicago (9) – Hey, give them credit. The defense is for real, and Cutler is playing well. If they can play exciting offense in bad weather, they can win anywhere. With a week off for the defense to heal and Martz to work for another week with the offense, this team can get much better. If Atlanta or the Saints have to come here for the NFC Championship for some reason, the Bears can legitimately go to the Super Bowl. Or, you know, blow up spectacularly.

7. Green Bay (NR) – I am still petrified at the injuries, but this is a dangerous team with Aaron Rodgers slinging it around. I winch because I believe that this team could have rolled to the Super Bowl with the injuries they have had.

8. Kansas City (10) – Congrats to them for jumping this high. It shows what good coaching and good run differential can do. And a QB that doesn’t throw interceptions. What team does that sound like?

9. Philadelphia (4) – Still dangerous, also likely to fall apart due to injuries to their exciting but slight players.

10. Tampa Bay (NR) – I thought of Indy, Jets, and the Giants for this spot, but Tampa Bay, while not a probably playoff participant, has played really hard despite so many injuries. They have rounded into form, and will grow by leaps and bounds next year. I predict the NFC will be the best division by far.

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Arizona (29) – They won, but the problem was it was with two freak defensive TDs. They have a lot of work to do.  

30. Cincinnati (NR) – The T-Ocho Show!  

31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow? Really? Well, that dooms them to 6-10 for a few years.  

32. Carolina (32) – Andrew Luck would be stupid to give up guaranteed millions, even if it means coming to Carolina. They aren’t so bad. They have RBs and a decent line, so Luck could do worse.  

NFL 2010 week 17 picks:

I am dividing my picks into two groups: ones I feel like I can substantiate by reason and ones I just have to guess at because it involves people sitting, which may be predicated on early games. I am not holding myself accountable for the second group.

Group 1:

Falcons -15 over Panthers, 34-10

-Jimmy Clausen is the only thing standing between the Falcons and a bye/division title/1 seed. And it is in Atlanta. And I’m not sure John Fox is even coming with Carolina to the stadium. His office might already be empty.

Baltimore -9.5 over Cincinnati, 28-13

-Ravens still have a shot at it, and Cincy is dead. Carson cannot replicate that.

Chiefs -3.5 over Raiders, 28-20

-This does affect seeding, and the Chiefs will stay sharp. If they fall behind, I could see Cassel sitting.

Steelers -5.5 over Browns, 24-14

-Steelers need to sow up the #2 seed and bye. They need that bye. I understand the Browns play them tough, but really.

Bucs +7.5 over Saints, 24-30

-I see a cover here, but probably not a win for Tampa. Saints take care of business in case Atl slips up.

Houston -3 over Jacksonville, 27-7

-Crazy score right? Well, no Mojo, Garrard, etc, etc. Houston tries to send us off well.

Giants -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-7

-Rexy cannot handle Tuck and Co. Giants are still mathematically in it, and will roll this game.

Colts -9.5 over Titans, 31-10

-They have to win, and the Titans will invent new ways to give up the game.

Packers -10 over Bears, 31-17

-Packers firm things up as the Bears lie down. I think.

Rams -3 over Seahawks, 24-17

-Seahawks will try, but the Rams are better and deserve it more. I am 90% sure the NFL wants an 8-8 playoff team over a 7-9 one. We will see. I hope for Sam Bradford he makes it in.

Group 2:

Jets PK over Bills, 20-13

-Jets backups are better than the Bill's backups

Patriots -4 over Dolphins, 24-13

-This might be a lay down game, but I think New England wants win 14 (they’ve gone to the Super Bowl in every season they’ve gotten at least 14 wins, winning in 03 and 04. And Chad Henne is terrible.

Lions -3.5 over Vikings, 21-17

-Ugh. Lions seem to care, and they are at home.

Cards +7 over 49ers, 21-20

-Why does Vegas love the Niners again?

Chargers -3.5 over Denver, 29-17

-Chargers are really good. Denver is not. I don’t believe in Tebow. But, well, who knows?

Record last week:

Straight up: 7-7

Against the Spread: 8-6

Record this year:

Straight up: 124-48

Against the Spread: 99-84

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 242-126
Against the Spread: 199-170

BLISS

NFC forecast and a Letter to the NFL

So, a few weeks ago I did my slant column early in the week, not accounting for the night games. That week I wanted to examine the AFC, and NE-Jets, BAL-Steelers were on those nights. I feel like that experience was productive (I crowned NE, called Pittsburgh good but still lacking, Baltimore good but showing it was going nowhere, and the Jets as horrible, and that has worked out to be true). Well, this week I saw the same situation occur with the NFC.

Monday Night had New Orleans and Atlanta squaring off. In my opinion, these are the two most likely candidates for the Super Bowl. Before the season and after this game, I had the same impression: New Orleans is just a lot better. The Monday Night game showed me what each team was missing.

New Orleans is missing a tough defensive presence. This will limit them, and tougher teams can out muscle them. However, I am simply not worried about this. First, this was their problem last year, and they won the Super Bowl. Second, there are only a handful of teams that this matters against. It won’t matter against the Eagles, Bears, Packers, or apparently, the Falcons.

Atlanta is missing spirit, a heart. At no point this year I have said “there is the fire!” with them. To be fair, Atlanta hasn’t had many opportunities to do so. They are frequently just a better team than the opponent and get out ahead early. They won the first matchup with the Saints because Garrett Hartley missed two field goals, not because they seized it. And they lost this tilt because New Orleans took it and Atlanta did nothing to put them down. Two interceptions fell in their lap, they only allowed 3 scores to one of the best offenses in the league, they were playing in one of the best home arenas in the league, and they STILL couldn’t finish it. Perhaps they were holding back, knowing they only needed the Panthers next week to get the #1 seed. But, this is a game they easily could have had. And they didn’t STOMP on it like they needed to. And, I am not sure they have that “it”. Matt Ryan is Matty Ice, cool, calm, and collected. The problem is, sometimes you need a little dog in you too, a fiery sense of “eff you”. Brady has it. Peyton has it. And Brees DEFINITIVELY has it. Same with Belichick and Sean Payton, they have that ability to pounce. Not sure Mike Smith has it. And I think Atlanta fails because of that.

The other game I was interested in was the Eagles and Vikings. The Vikings are done, and while watching Webb is somewhat interesting from a scouting perspective, what I really wanted to see was if the Eagles could pounce all over a hapless team. We all know what happened. It was clear that while the Eagles are dangerous, they can easily be clipped if the other team gets physical with Vick and runs it right at them on defense. The big play cannot be displayed on command. It is understandable to only grind out a victory in an odd game like the one on Tuesday night, but to be beaten that badly (and it could have been worse, Vick should have had about 3 more picks) shows true problems with your team.

So, the NFC is much clearer to me. The best team has to be the Saints. After that, I have to take the Packers because they can dominate, and fight despite injuries and bad games. And that is exactly what I see happening, with the Saints going to the Super Bowl. And yes, I just picked the two Wild Card teams to go to the NFC title game. Oh Boy.

So, NFL, I want to have a few words with you.

-You got a lot of flack this week about moving that Eagles-Vikes game. But, I somewhat understand. The highways would have been really bad. You are trying to say you are concerned with safety. You know, not enough to really prevent concussions for the players, but concerned about the paying customer, of course. Is it true that Vince Lombardi would be laughing at us for postponing a game due to weather? Probably, he would. But overall, this wasn’t a huge deal. It gave us another day of football. So, this didn’t get me that mad.

-Then you fined Brett Favre $50,000 for his actions. No suspension. This was the decision, after all that activity the last few months. After he did something that he was clearly guilty of. Because, before all else, you have to protect the shield. Nothing can put a black mark on the NFL. Nothing can stop Favre’s Hall of Fame ceremony in five years from being a joyous occasion. You know what? Let’s just wipe all of Brett Favre’s interceptions from the record too! After all, he can do no wrong. Maybe leave a few on the record so announcers can joke about “Favre the gunslinger” and how he “tries so hard sometimes his own guys just can’t catch the ball”. And you know what? Let’s waive the 5 year rule and put him right in the Hall of Fame. He deserves it, right? Then he could come back and be the first ever active Hall of Famer still playing! But, the truth is, Brett doesn’t matter anymore, so I didn’t get that upset.

-Okay, so then I noticed that the NFL has a straight, simple week 17. No Thursday night, no Saturday night, no Monday night. I’m fine with no MNF, playoff teams need fair rest time. But we should have games on AT LEAST Saturday night. So, I looked it up, and we have had those games in past years. Then I realized, this week the Thurs-Sat night games would conflict with NCAA Bowl Games. You know, those pointless things that everyone hates because of the system, and also because the NCAAF season ended like 2 months ago? Right, those. So, basically, it seems the NFL has a secret handshake agreement not to double book football with the NCAA.

-I wouldn’t be so upset about this, but the NFL has already screwed up the schedule already. They are playing with fire, manipulating everything for the best possible ratings. Now if a game has an impact on another game is played earlier (like if the Saints game was played before the Falcons game, for instance), other teams would rest starters. And the NFL cannot have that. But, the schedule is set at the beginning of the season! Keep it the way it is set. If a team knows its fate from an early game, it shouldn’t matter. So, you lose one game of interest as Matt Brunell sees extended playing time. But, that is not your hand to force.

-This is topped by the fact that if you do flex a game to 8pm, DON’T MAKE IT SEATTLE-STL! Make it a good game. I know, I know, that game is guaranteed to mean something (who wants to be the first one out of the playoffs?!). But, have a team over .500 in the game you flex for week 17. Or, even a team AT .500.

-Finally, let’s not be worried about Brett Favre, or flexing games, or anything else. How about we make sure we have a season next year? You know, work on a CBA?

BLISS

NFL Slants for Week 16

Awesome week! Let's get right into it

Checking Down: 

-How many people got murdered by Andre Johnson sitting today, and Larry Fitzgerald/Reggie Wayne/Anquan Boldin combining for 6 catches for 81 yards with no touchdowns? (raises hand)

-Tim Tebow, um, that was kind of a decent QB performance. Is the world ending, or may he turn out to be a serviceable starter? Nah……

-Pittsburgh rocked, but, it was Carolina. I still wouldn’t be afraid of the Steelers, because the injuries are still quite extreme.

-Dallas showed again that the problem isn’t talent but heart. Roy Williams, catch that ball. If Arizona fixes the QB, that is probably their division next year. The defense is legit.

-The Jets are in trouble. This is not good. Them, on the road at KC in the Wild Card round, may not be a given win like many thought 4 weeks ago. KC can pull that out. If Forte can run for 110 yards, what can Charles do against them? And you think Thomas Jones won’t want revenge for being discarded by the Jets?

-The Bears may get the Saints or Rams at home second round, and could easily win that game, even if it is the Saints. Outdoors, in the elements, with a Cutler who looks like he may have finally gotten it, they will be dangerous.

-Baltimore’s pass defense is finally catching on, even if Ed Reed is literally on fire.

-Jacksonville was an enigma this season, but I am glad they are put away. Also, we only have to have one more week to have to watch the Rex Grossman, McNabb, Shanahan family. Two will be gone soon.

-Randy Moss actually disappeared. Have you seen him? I haven’t seen him. Kerry Collins hasn’t seen him.

-Side note, I actually started Moss in a 9^th place game this week. I didn’t expect anything, and he finally performed to expectations for the first time this year.

-Detroit has a lot of heart, and the NFC North may be the best division by far next year. Minnesota may quickly turn into the bottom feeders in the division, which was crazy to saw a year ago.

-Miami needs to clear out most of the skill players on offense and defense, and most of the coaching staff. Then, they might be kind of okay.

-Matt Schaub’s stats are going to look awesome this year. So are Andre’s. And Arian Foster’s. They are going to look like a great triumvirate. Too bad the team stinks.

-San Diego, this is so disappointing. Number 1 offense, number 2 defense, no playoffs. Wow. If anyone ever says special teams don’t matter, point to the 2010 San Diego Chargers and their #1 O, #2 D, #32 Special Teams, and tell them different.

-Oakland is a much improved team and showed it today. They have speed and heart. Cable should stay. Indy was good enough to win, and will win the division. However, they are going out first round if they get the Ravens. Colts-Jets would actually be an exercise in futility and pain.

-Cincy should dump TO and probably Ocho too. Carson plays better with receivers who aren’t demanding the ball and actually run their routes. Who knew?

-Tampa Bay has stayed in this, and Josh Freeman may be a top 12 QB right now. This is going to be a good team in the future.

-Green Bay is dangerous. This team can light people up for 40 at any time. Imagine if they still had Nick Barnett and Finley at TE? They can also go on the round second round and KILL Chicago in Chicago. And that is exactly what I think happens next week too. I DO NOT want to see them in the playoffs either.

-Tom Coughlin might need to be finding a new job. Who wants odds on Bill Cowher being the head coach in the Meadowlands next year?

Going Long: 

-I’ve stayed away from promoting the wonderfulness of the Patriots as possible. But, I want to make a few points. First, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick should be the biggest slam dunks for MVP and Coach of the Year ever seen. Also, two stats are eye popping but are not getting press. Yards are important, as are points. But, the best indicator of wins is still turnovers. And in that, the 2010 Patriots are the greatest team ever. Brady is cooking at 319 without a pick, and is likely to bring that record into 2011 with a low key game versus Miami next week. Also, the team has only committed 9 turnovers this year, and is going to shatter the previous record of 13. I have no idea why these stats are not getting more attention. Anyone wondering how a team with a defense that bad can win games should consider this: it is easy to win games when you get two more possessions than the opponent per game. 

-On a similar statistical note, there have been some ridiculously statistically successful quarterbacks this year. In the past few years, there has been an insane amount of 4000 yard passers. 5 will get there again this year, with 4 more possible with big games next week. However, the numbers I am speaking off is TD passes and passer ratings. 4 QBs will be above 100 in rating, a great benchmark for success rarely achieved, and another 2 could get there. The TD to INT ratios are insanely efficient. Brady is 34/4, Vick 20/5, Rivers, 30/12, Rodgers 26/10 after a bad start, Cassel 27/5, Flacco 25/9 after a horrid start, Matt Ryan 25/9, Big Ben 15/5, Freeman 23/6, etc, etc. These are very efficient ratios, never before seen by this many QBs at once. Normally, 25/15 ratios are very good. QBs are protecting the ball really well, and it is no secret that these QBs are leading the successful teams. Efficiency is the new big yardage. 8 Passers are hitting over 65% of their passes, an INCREDIBLY efficient number. 20 are over 60%, the old benchmark of efficiency. Passing games are clicking in more cities than ever, and it has been great to watch. 

BLISS

NFL 2010 Week 16 Predictions

WEEK 16 NFL predictions and statements:

Good luck to those in Championship games and still in Eliminator pools. This will be a fun weekend. 

 

My top 10: previous ranking in parentheses

1. New England (1) – I think you will see a focused team versus the Bills, and then a sit down of many players against the Fins the last week. I am interested to see who they get first round, and by how much Brady wins the MVP.

2. Atlanta (2) – So this is going to sound crazy, but I see them with a better overall chance of going to the Super Bowl than the Pats, just because of their conference. Their streak is just as impressive as the Pats, and they are winning consistently by multiple scores. This week is the big test. We will get that last bit of information on them: whether they can score at will when they need to, and not just win by playing perfect and grinding the opponent down. Either way, I am not sure who comes into the Georgia Dome and beats them (if you say Philadelphia, you were not paying attention to a QB named Mike Vick who had some issues in Hotlanta). However, I think the Pats would be too much for them in a SB, so I am hoping it goes exactly that way.  

3. Pittsburgh (4) – Still a flawed and hurt term, but I have no interest in playing them.

4. Philadelphia (7) – They are so dynamic, they are dangerous.

5. New Orleans (3) – I would rather play Baltimore, even though the Ravens just beat them.

6. Baltimore (5) – That pass defense is going to haunt them.

7. New York Giants (6) – I am actually more convinced about this team than ever before, they will be dangerous in the playoffs because of that pass rush.

8. San Diego (9) – Record doesn’t really support this, but, number 1 offense, number 2 defense?

9. Chicago (NR) – The NE game showed us how flawed they are, but the domination of the Vikings showed they are a real playoff team.

10. Kansas City (NR) – Such a solid team, good defense, runs the ball, stops the run. Team is well coached, and should not be looked over.

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Arizona (29) – Well, they TRIED to throw the ball to Fitz….

30. Detroit (30) – Drew Stanton everyone! Suh for defensive rookie of the year is the only thing they are playing for now.

31. Denver (31) – Tim Tebow is going to get his chance to succeed (cough fail cough) over the next two weeks.

32. Carolina (32) – Andrew Luck anyone?  Clausen is pathetic.

NFL 2010 week 16 picks:

Dallas -6.5 over Arizona, 30-14

-This is a Christmas game? Maybe if Kurt Warner was there.

Ravens -3.5 over Browns, 17-10

-Browns always make this game close, but there is only so much they can do against a team that really needs it.

Lions +3.5 over Dolphins, 20-23

-Lions can easily overcome the much better but QB-less and confusing Dolphins. Cover at least, upset possible.

Pats -9 over Bills, 31-10

-No lack of focus this week, and the Pats smell the number 1 seed.

Bears +1.5 over Jets, 24-20

-Jets continue to implode, and Sanchez wasn’t very good WHEN HEALTHY. Bears see the first round bye in sight.

Rams -1.5 over SF, 24-14

-Need vs. out of it. Easy choice.

KC -5 over Titans, 21-10

-See above. Tennessee cannot stop Jamaal Charles.

Jaguars -5.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 20-13

-Wow, Jags are not that good either. The Redskins are so bad though.

Texans -2.5 over Broncos, 37-24

-Tebow cannot keep up and the Texans score too much for Denver to attempt to keep up efficiently.

Colts -3 over Raiders, 27-23

-Oakland is not bad, and 3.5 would be a tough line to swallow. However, the Colts just have too much experience. Don’t count on Reggie Wayne this week though.

Chargers -9 over Bengals, 33-13

-No TO, Ocho is injured too, and the Chargers are rolling. Eliminator pick….

Giants +3 over Packers, 27-24

-Even if Rodgers is healthy, the pass rush of the Giants will be too much.

Eagles -14 over Vikings, 28-10

-Even if Adrian Peterson plays (and he shouldn’t, they should shut him down for next year, especially with his injury history), the Eagles are rolling, and the Vikings cannot stop them.

Saints +2 over Falcons, 34-24

-Good test for the Falcons, but truthfully the Saints need this game a lot more, and will get it. Atlanta knows it only needs to win the Carolina game in week 17 to secure the No. 1 and won’t show everything this week. If the Saints jump up early, it is probably early.

Record last week:

Straight up: 8-4

Against the Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight up: 117-41

Against the Spread: 91-78

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 235-119
Against the Spread: 191-164

BLISS