2011 Offseason Needs: AFC

Here we detail the offseason needs for the AFC teams that did not make the playoffs. 

Bills – They actually may not need a QB, but of course they will take one. They need help everywhere, but impact players on defense at any position would be good. CJ Spiller is a luxury they really don’t need, but if they have him they need to figure out ways to maximize him. Use him in the kickoff returns, punts, scat back formations, and use him as a slot receiver too. A great pass rushing end would be great, and there are several in this draft. 

Dolphins – This is a well put together team except at the skill positions. You know, they need ends, corners, pass rushers, running backs, and receivers. Also, a quarterback. This would be a great Kyle Orton spot actually, but they could also grab a Ryan Mallett type if he falls this far. They should keep one of the running backs for continuity but otherwise just totally reset, get healthy, and then develop an ability to win at home. 

Browns – They need to decide on Colt McCoy’s future, but I believe that they will decide to develop him. Some impact defensive players, especially in the defensive backfield, would be a tremendous health. Some youth at linebacker would be wonderful. They also need a scat back because Peyton Hillis cannot be their everything and Mike Bell is, well, Mike Bell. 

Bengals – This team needs to flush its WR core down to the young ones, and also somehow determine the future at QB. Right now it seems that Carson wants out. If he stays they need to simplify the offense to match with his abilities. If he leaves/retires, they need to bring someone in, and I am not sure it can be a rookie. Marvin needs to win. The defense is in pretty decent shape, just needs better coaching. 

Chargers – This team needs better coaching on special teams, health, and development from the RB core, and they’ll be fine. Even with the improvements from the Chiefs, the Chargers can still rule this division with just a little more consistency. Though a little less Norv Turner never hurt anyone. Norv, you CAN try to start something other than 0-3 you know. If you don’t start 0-3 or 1-4, turns out you can get a better record at the end. Crazy, I know. 

Raiders – They are moving the right direction. The Darius Heyward-Beys of the world besides, they are getting production from their skill positions and their lines are playing well. Keeping Asomugha will be key to the defensive playing well. At least they did the right thing and kept Tom Cable, who took them to 6-0 in the division and has improved his record 3 years running…..oh wait. 

Broncos – They need to somehow craft an offense around Tim Tebow, because that is clearly the direction that they are going in. Figure out how to maximize the value of Orton while they can. And resign Champ Bailey or draft his replacement. The return of Elvis Dumervil will be the key to the pass rush working again. Otherwise, the hype and craziness of this once stable franchise needs to calm down and they’ll be able to regroup. I like the WR and RB group, just get it all going in the same direction. 

Titans – I have no idea what they are doing. They need a QB, and it would be better with a veteran than a rookie. Unfortunately, with the release of Fisher they may do the stupid thing and keep Vince Young. They need to get a 5 year younger (okay 10) version of Kerry Collins with a little more movement. But the roster is pretty good, especially on defense. But, they need some good coaches and to replace a lot of continuity. Sounds like a big rebuilding year. However, they could be somewhat successful. 

Texans – They needed to replace a key figure with a respected elder. Well, they got Wade Phillips, and that kind of works. The offense should be the same, though they could use one more WR (I do not trust Jacoby Jones). The defense needs playmakers, and fast. However, this team has the pieces to go far. Health at the tackles couldn’t hurt them. 

Jags – We end with the team that almost beat out the Colts to go to the playoffs. They really could use a pass rusher. While David Garrard again got them close, I am not sure that he is the long term answer. Developing a young QB would be a great idea, because Garrard isn’t as young as you think either. The offensive line needs help and they need more pass rush. The corners are getting old as well, but they aren’t that far off being decent. Mojo can carry them far in that division and the receivers are better than advertized. They are already good at emphasizing their strengths, and I hope Del Rio keeps his staff together.

Coming up soon, pieces on Super Bowl odds, key matchups, and the prediction. Enjoy the weekend.

BLISS

2011 Offseason Needs: NFC

This is Pro Bowl week, so I figured while I am going to be ignoring that game (okay, AFC -3 over NFC, 34-27), I would do an offseason needs column for the teams that did not make the playoffs. Some need more than others, and some needs are stronger than others. Here is the NFC overview, the AFC overview will be coming in a few days.

Arizona – They need a QB. Let’s start there. Otherwise, they are in okay shape. Beanie Wells either needs to step up or be gone. Also, they need a defensive coordinator. Dick LeBeau would fit well, but someone from that Steelers family would be great. And please, a contract extension for Larry Fitzgerald. 

San Francisco – Also, a quarterback. In addition, development along the offensive line would work well. However, they are actually in good shape but in the NFL, you need a quarterback….

St. Louis – They need another rotation pass rushing end, some development on the offensive line, one playmaking secondary player but above all else a dominant WR and health generally at WR. Julio Jones or similar would look really good here.

Minnesota – They need a QB, but probably a veteran one. I see McNabb here, and he could find success. Work out a long term deal for Adrian Peterson, and also get an end/LB to push the pocket more and make them more diverse.

Detroit – Health! Also, one more WR and a tackling machine at LB would be good. The corners need shoring up, but this team has great depth now and will grow. The key, as always, is Stafford.

Tampa Bay – They just need to develop and not rock what is going so well. They could use more pass rushing youth, but otherwise, just grow. If Benn’s knee injury is a long term problem, maybe add a speed WR.

Carolina – They need a QB (surprise, theme going here), and they should try to get something out of their RB depth via trade. (DeAngelo to NE for the 33^rd pick makes sense). Otherwise they need to refocus on the goal and set themselves back up.

Giants – They need to get healthy at WR and put together a game plan that maximizes their big play ability with minimizing Eli’s tendency for the terrible pick. Also, figure out Bradshaw and if he’s gone, get a scat back. Otherwise, the defense needs to get a little youth but overall is still the best at rushing the passer in my opinion. If the punter can figure out not to punt to DeSean Jackson, we’ll all be good. (Too soon Giants fans?)

Ethnic Slurs – They need, guess what, a QB. Somehow, they need to find someone who isn’t a rookie, but I am not sure where they go from here. McNabb costs too much and Shanahan burnt that bridge anyways. This defense was also really bad. They need a shutdown corner (Champ Bailey might actually make some sense here). They also need a good speed rusher to not let QBs pick them apart. If Torain is the answer, then they need to work on offensive line depth.

Cowboys – Health is the biggest deal here, for both Romo and Dez Bryant. They also need to cut ties with Marion Barber and get Felix Jones to undo whatever he did to his body last year. He was good the way he was. The defense needs to play together better, but otherwise with a little more discipline this team can rise back to the top.

AFC overview coming in a few days. Try to enjoy the Pro Bowl.

BLISS

NFL Slants for Conference Championship Round

Conference Championship Round

Checking Down:

-Where was Troy Polamalu? He’s clearly not right, and while the extra week will help, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be a non factor in the Super Bowl, like Dwight Freeney last year for the Colts.

-Big Ben, what was that? Again a terrible performance covered by good running, good D, and one good play at the end.

-Mendenhall did a good job controlling the game, but they for some reason couldn’t use him to end the game quicker. Taking away the 35 yard run he had 26 carries for 86 yards, a not good average. And he had almost nothing in the second half. They need to work on that.

-Hines Ward and Mike Wallace pulled disappearing acts, though that might have been because of Ben. They will need to play better, but Tramon is up to covering Wallace and Charles Woodson will erase Hines Ward.

-Woodson is a little slower and less reliable than he was a few years ago, but he’s perfect for Ward, who could be described the same way.

-Ben needs to take less hits. Clay Matthews is going to be all over him. Ben is strong enough to get through him though.

-The injury to Pouncey might be devastating. BJ Raji is going to have a field day. Of course, we have said that the Steelers were going to fall because of offensive line injuries, and they continue to move along and succeed.

-James Harrison was quiet other than one big tackle. That won’t last.

-Another weird Passer Rating game. Mark Sanchez has a good game on paper, 20-33 for 233 and 2 TDs, but overall he flew passes wide and long, and had two bad fumbles. He could have played so much better.

-Braylon Edwards’ amazing disappearing act for most of the game didn’t help Sanchez though.

-I applaud Jerricho’s efforts to fight through a hamstring injury, but he clearly wasn’t right.

-I don’t particularly like Shonn Greene and even I admit he should be playing. I know LT is the vet and big guy on campus. However, he got 16 yards on 9 carries. Greene got 52 on 9 carries. Give him the damn ball next year Rex. Let LT be the Kevin Faulk for this team.

-Green Bay dominated that game but somehow scored only 21 points. It should have been more. I am sure they will fix that, but it is still challenging and perplexing.

-Starks is nice but needs to run for a better average against the Steelers or the Pack might as well pass all the time.

-Greg Jennings is severely underrated. My elite receivers are White, Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Calvin Johnson, but Jennings is right there. He reminds me so much of pre-gun-wielding Marvin Harrison. Not tall or long or really fast but precise and great at running every route, good hands, in tune with his QB. Same height and body type as Marvin. Not sure Ike Taylor can cover him.

-Rodgers had an average game and still won. Just saying.

-B.J. Raji. Best. Dance. Ever. 

-Forte had a great game. He was average running the ball but had 10 catches for 90 yards, moving the Bears down the field again and again.

-What are the odds someone offers Chicago a second round pick for Caleb Hanie this offseason? Like 80%? I mean if Charlie freaking Whitehurst causes such an offer….

-I came away impressed with the play of GB Safety Nick Collins, who I had never really looked for before. He will get to know Heath Miller very well most likely. I’m calling that early as a key matchup because it will affect Ben’s security blanket. But, I get ahead of myself. We have two weeks.

Going Deep:

At this point we only have two teams left. The two teams eliminated in the championship round are very good teams and shouldn’t have a bunch to work on. The Jets are far more likely than the Bears to repeat their success next year. This is both because of the luck factor that got them here and the quality of their roster. However, both teams could stand to improve.

-The Bears need to do a few things. First, a scat back would be nice. Chester is nice but not a long term solution and his skill set doubles over Forte’s. Either Hester needs to develop further or they need to get a real WR. Vincent Jackson? However the overriding need is for some offensive lineman. That would help out tremendously.

Otherwise, the offense needs time to gel. Martz can continue to help Cutler grow and better utilize Knox and Olsen. He needs to understand the offense better and get the reads down. A backup would also be good for the inevitable games Cutler gets killed.

-The Jets need to work on a few things. Getting Mark Sanchez to understand not to sail passes and how to go side to side on reads while still staying accurate would be great. Choosing an offensive identity is important (they were better when they were a running deep streak team, I’m not sure what they were this playoffs, despite still being pretty good.

They do need a dominant pass rusher to make that defense truly scary. I don’t know if you can just find one, but because that defense relies on blitzing so much, they do get compromised sometimes. A Julius Peppers would make that team horrific to play.

In the next two weeks, I am going to examine the key matchups for the Super Bowl, make my picks, and round out my examinations for all the non playoff teams. I am going to almost completely ignore the Pro Bowl, you know, like the rest of America.

BLISS

NFL 2010 Conference Championship Predictions

Conference Championship Round

So, let’s go back to the beginning. Back to the basics. We came into this season knowing a few things about these final four teams.

We KNEW Green Bay was going to a juggernaut. They were going to roll to 13 wins or so, and Aaron Rodgers was the MVP favorite going in. Then injuries hit, and it looked derailed. Chicago dominated the division. They snuck in with a 6 seed. Rodgers suffered two concussions. And yet, here they are.

We KNEW Pittsburgh was a very talented team but was going to be derailed by Ben’s four-game suspension. And even when he was back, it a distraction. Ben got hurt. So did Polamalu. Baltimore finally beat them. And yet, here they are.

We KNEW the Jets were good. Super Bowl favorites even. Then New England rose up and squashed the division. 45-3 happened. The Jets backed into the playoffs, and Sanchez’s skills regressed big time. And yet, here they are.

We KNEW Chicago had a decent defense. But they still had Cutler and who knew how Martz was going to work out. Cutler was vintage Cutler early on, and then when he missed time they had some of the worst showings this year. Even when they rolled a little bit they got embarrassed at home versus New England. It looked like they were going to go nowhere. And yet, here they are.

So, these are our final four. No New England, New Orleans, Baltimore, or Philadelphia. Pretty much no one had these as their final four. I feel good just to have my pre season Super Bowl Champ pick Green Bay still involved. Let’s do it.

Before I get to the picks, I want to examine the state of the QB in the NFL. The elder generation of Brady/Brees/Manning is set and done. They have been great, and will continue to be the elite for a few more years. Also, we have some young stars coming up that may develop into the elite later. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, and Sam Bradford look ready to progress at least a little further (and a lot in Bradford’s case). Rivers and Schaub look firmly entrenched as the Dan Marino big stats no playoff win QBs. Eli Manning and Carson Palmer throw way too many picks to be taken seriously most of the time, and Hasselbeck and McNabb just need to retire.

So that pretty much leaves us with Cutler, Sanchez, Rodgers and Ben. Cutler has been inconsistent from the beginning of his career. He has attitude. He dates badly. And he won his first playoff game last week (High School, College, Pro, look it up). But, he has a laser arm. He can dissect the field and make a 40 yard TD look easy. (He can also throw 4 INTs to DeAngelo Hall in one game, but hey, we cheered for Favre, didn’t we?) He definitively has potential. Martz had the potential to work with Cutler and maximize his skills.

Sanchez is an enigma. I have no idea what to make of him. He is less along in terms of progress compared to Ryan, Flacco, and Freeman and has been in the league for less time than them. He has had major injuries to knees and shoulders. Mark has no dominating skill. His numbers are somewhere between mediocre and bad. But he wins.

Maybe there is more to him I am not seeing. In Bill Simmons’ last column he conveyed a story that Sanchez has that “something” about him. If he, Matt Ryan, Stafford, Rodgers, and Bradford all got into a car, Sanchez is driving. I chewed that one over for a while, and considered what that meant. He has a leadership quality, a cockiness that pervades the Jets team. And so he may continue this career of being effective but not look very pretty. I mean, with another road playoff win which he can get this week, he will have the most ever road playoff wins. That is crazy.

Big Ben is strange. He is cross generational. I say that because we have the Brady/Manning/Brees 32ish generation. And then we have all the young guys. Ben is right in the middle. While he was drafted with guys like Eli and Rivers, he had success so much earlier due to his defense and running game. He has two rings and could be on the way to a third. He has a high winning percentage in both the regular and post seasons. He seems to overcome injuries, both to himself and the team. And he wins.

He is also, by all accounts, a jerk who is a crashes motorcycles, engages in some big time indiscretions with women, and in general has been a self consumed idiot. We’ve cheered for worse, but he’s not my favorite person. Still, his resume is tough to argue with. And he has to fight through Baltimore every year, not an easy thing to do.

This leaves me with Rodgers. I wrote last week that if he wins the Super Bowl he jumps into the elite in the league. He is fresh, only having 3 seasons under his belt. However, he is very experienced, having sat for a few years and watched Favre. He can play in the cold, and also in domes. He has arm strength, accuracy, and speed. He makes his teammates better, and is now quickly becoming America’s favorite QB in the playoffs. He singlehandedly moved the line in this GB-CHI game about 3 points, perhaps more. So let’s see.

In some way, these four QBs will play key roles in the next half dozen seasons and playoffs. It is unavoidable. I personally am excited for Cutler’s pick sixes. Hey, it’s impact, right?

The Picks:

Packers -3.5 over Bears, 33-21

-Okay, I expect this game to be marked by big plays and mistakes. Between the special teams (awesome), the fast DBs on each side, WRs streaking down the field, there could be several over 40 yard plays. I think this is a pretty safe over, and the point spread won’t matter. So it becomes a choice of who will win.

For me, it is the Packers, and it isn’t close. The QB+HC works out for the Packers in both matchups. I don’t trust Martz, Lovie, or Cutler in a playoff game. I trust Rodgers and somewhat trust McCarthy (someone just needs to challenge for him). Green Bay is rolling now and the Bears are decently cold (no pun intended). I like taking big play defenses in the playoffs, and I think Green Bay can torture Chicago’s offensive line. The corners can dominate the WRs of the Bears 1:1, letting them blitz. Heaven knows the Bears cannot really run with any kind of consistency. Running is so important in the playoffs, but it is a wash here. Neither can do it well, both defend it well. However, Green Bay is MUCH better at short yardage (John Kuhn everybody).

I think the Pack wins convincingly, and the Bears only close the gap with a late score to make it a respectable point difference. That the Bears let the Seahawks get close in the end was a red flag to me that this is the Packers’ game to win. The Bears cannot clamp down and end it. They cannot dominate, just stay in it and hope to ride out the win. The Packers will throw it all over them.

Steelers -3.5 over Jets, 27-20

-Here we go. First, let me say in all honesty, I hate this game. I want to cry. Especially because the Pats could have crunched the Steelers had they won (sans Brady’s broken foot). I hate both these teams.

So, with that out of the way, let’s unpack this. The Steelers were better all year and more consistent. They have more experience in the playoffs. Their defense is better, and more diverse. They have home field. Despite the Jets winning 4 in a row on the road on the playoffs, I think it finally catches up to them. Home field in Pittsburgh is a tough environment. Nick Folk is going to have a cow kicking field goals.

The coaches are about equal. Skill positions are relatively equal. However, you can be sure the Steelers will not let old friend Holmes work them over. Injuries favor the Jets, with the Steelers light on lineman. However, they have won with that all year. However, the big difference is at QB. Ben is decently healthy and playing so well. He is a difference maker. Sanchez can be, but he is so due for a dumb game changing interception touchdown. Ben will make a play when Sanchez will give one away.

These two teams played this year, and while the Jets won it gave me the data I needed to tell me to pick the Steelers. The Jets desperately needed that game. The Steelers did not. They still almost got it. Enough said.

So, those are the in game reasons why I am going with the Steelers. Outside reasons? Well, footballoutsiders.com had the Steelers close to Pats all year in DVOA, and I have trusted them so far. Also, two 6 seeds advancing to the Super Bowl would be near apocalyptic. So would both home field teams losing in the Conference Championship round. I am so sure of the Packers, it just makes sense for the Steelers to win.

So, I think we get two weeks of “Rodgers the golden boy from Cali” vs. “Ben the ruffian who could be in jail seeking redemption” storylines. Because hey, the NFL is about quarterbacks, right?

Record last week:

Straight up: 2-2

Against the Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight up: 135-55

Against the Spread: 109-92

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 253-133
Against the Spread: 209-178

BLISS