NFL 2012 Week 13 Predictions

Ground out a nice 9-6 last week, time to focus on the stretch run. A lot of 4-6 point lines this week, some curious ones too.

Cardinals +4.5 over Jets, 21-10

-Jets are terrible. Cardinals are still a plus defense against the pass. 4.5 points?  Sure, sign me up. Let’s just ignore that the Cards don’t have an offensive line.

Panthers -3 over Chiefs, 27-14

-Ugh, Panthers aren’t good but this Chief team will be too busy asking for Cam’s autograph to win. Rivera>Crennel, um, I think?

Texans -6 over Titans, 31-10

-6 points? 6 points? I don’t understand. Titans fire their offensive coordinator and Jake Locker is still involved.

-Best eliminator pick

Colts +5.5 over Lions, 24-23

-Don’t bet against Chuck or Luck. New rules to live by. Lions have “on the edge of quitting” potential. At least the wide receivers will probably line up in the right places this week.

Jags +5.5 over Bills, 24-20

-I picked up Chad Henne in a long term keeper league today. I’m starting him in a major playoff matchup. I don’t even know what else to say about myself. In my defense, my other option was Phil Rivers.

Packers -9.5 over Vikings, 34-21

-Packers make some key adjustments for the offensive line and do just fine. Vikings are a nice team, but this is the part of the season where teams in it that need to win put the foot down.

Patriots -9 over Dolphins, 34-14

-Pats blowout the rookie quarterback. They’ve scored 10 points shy of 200 over the last 4 games. Have fun everyone.  

-Second best eliminator pick

Bears -3 over Seahawks, 21-13

-Those corners will be missed when Brandon Marshall goes off for 9-120-2. Bears roll over the Seahawks, who are untrustable right now.

Rams +8.5 over Niners, 20-21

-Tough divisional game between two plus defenses. 8.5 is just too much. Upset would not surprise me here.

Bucs +8.5 over Broncos, 27-24

-WAY too many points. Bucs are playing well here, and the Broncos will slip up at some point.

Bengals -1 over Chargers, 28-12

-Norv. All about Norv. Bengals are playing really well anyways.

Browns -1.5 over Raiders, 24-20

-Browns are simply a much better team. Tougher, stronger, and more talented. Cry Oakland, cry: Cleveland is better than you.

Ravens -3 over Steelers, 27-6

-With Batch in, any number of turnovers is possible.  And the Ravens will turn those turnovers into more points than Cleveland did.

Cowboys -9.5 over Eagles, 28-9

-No faith in the Cowboys but this Eagles team is DONE. Turn them over. Fire Reid now. Please.

Giants -9.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-20

-Washington is feisty, but these are the defending champs. Please, Giants roll. By the way, RGIII is great, but Luck is the rookie of the year. Records people, look at the records.

Good luck for everyone starting their fantasy playoffs/trying to get in on the last week. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-6

By Spread: 9-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 93-51

By Spread: 78-66

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 482-248
By Spread: 398-339

NFL 2012 Week 12 Predictions

Another good week, we are getting that record up. Short week, so these are out quickly. Enjoy everyone, Happy Thanksgiving.

Lions +3.5 over Texans, 21-20

-Lions are not good, but Texans are traveling on a holiday Thursday to Detroit after playing a killer overtime game in Houston on Sunday afternoon. Houston is better in a vacuum, but the vacuum isn’t pressurized on the Houston side for this one. Don’t know if they can overcome that.

Cowboys -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-20

-Washington is doing 3 days rest on the road, and the Cowboys have more a realistic shot at the playoffs and that starts to weigh on people’s minds. Dallas lights it up deep as the Washington secondary shows its stripes.

Pats -6 over Jets, 31-13

-The Gronk thing hurts for sure, but the return of Hernandez will help a lot and the Pats are rolling in every area. Typically the last few years the Pats play the Jets once tight and blow them out the other time. So, here is the blowout on national TV. Big game by Lloyd is somewhere in here, waiting to happen.

Colts -3 over Bills, 23-17

-Home game respect? I still don’t really get this line. Forget the NE game, the Colts are much better than the Bills. This is the matchup of the teams I projected to go 6^th and 7^th in the AFC: still wish I had flopped the prediction there.

Browns +3.5 over Steelers, 17-16

-Upset special. As much as an upset this can be with Charlie Batch and Plaxico Burress involved.

Bengals -7.5 over Raiders, 28-20

-AJ Green. AJ Green. AJ Green.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -4.5 over Vikings, 24-17

-Assuming Cutler plays, or I withdraw the guess. Either way, the Bears I think come up with a lot of spirit after whatever funkiness happened last week.

Not going to dignify Titans and Jags with a guess. This game should be televised in the home markets, on Redzone, or even for the parents of the quarterbacks. Ugh.

Falcons -1 over Bucs, 30-27

-Falcons win a shootout. They aren’t elite, but they are still good and find ways to win.

Seahawks -2.5 over Dolphins, 20-6

-Seattle will contain and crush the Dolphins. Tannehill has regressed, which is sad because I liked him.

Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs, 28-9

-Chiefs are just bad. No QB and no Bowe now, with Broncos rolling.

-Best Eliminator Pick  

Ravens -1.5 over Chargers, 21-19

-Ravens are just catching the Chargers while their soul has been stomped on. Ravens probably aren’t better but this is how it is going to go down. Waiting for that Ray Rice huge game, it is coming.

Saints +2.5 over 49ers, 31-23

-Alex Smith concussed is bad or Colin Kapernick in a more extended look gets exposed. Don’t look now, the Saints are playing MUCH better defense. Saints will light them up and I don’t trust the 49ers to keep up.

Cardinals +2.5 over Rams, 17-16

-Not getting off my Cards now. Ryan Lindley! Gonna be a thing! I even played this game out in Madden and won, and whatever I do with the Cardinals in Madden happens. I have friends that can attest to this.

Packers +3 over Giants, 30-28

-Packers are better right now than the Giants, even if the Giants are rested. I feel like the over is a good bet here.

Panthers +2.5 over Eagles, 20-19

-Just because the Eagles are terrible. The Panthers are less terrible. I mean, kind of.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 8-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 84-45

By Spread: 69-60

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 473-242
By Spread: 389-333

NFL 2012 Week 11 Predictions

Well, my results this week were .500 or better, so that’s something. Just such an ugly year. Going to get cuter this week. Normally when I tell someone that I am about to get cute with a game, I am about to throw an interception in Madden. So…here we go.

Cards +9.5 over Falcons, 20-27

-Falcons probably win, but Arizona is really highly ranked in pass defense. I think the Cards used the bye week to figure out a way to get some production from the pass offense, and they will be good enough to cover this.

Bengals -3.5 over Chiefs, 24-10

-Chiefs aren’t winning again this year. They are really bad.

Okay, you want more? Cassel or Quinn will be the QB. Romeo Crennel is still involved. They have two “over celebration” penalties last week on plays that didn’t technically happen because they were called back due to penalties. They have decided not to give their best player the ball, or at least, will only do so infrequently.

Browns +9.5 over Cowboys, 20-19

-Shiiish, don’t tell anyone! The Cleveland Browns are really tough on the lines, have good linebacking, and can run block decently well. 9.5 is a gift. It will only take a turnover fest to turn this from a cover into an upset. Not that like that likely to happen…oh wait. Everyone, the 2012 Dallas Cowboys!

Packers -3 over Lions, 31-27

-Packers just will score too much. Jordy Nelson being back healthy will make a big difference. Lions are decent, but they need to learn to play 4 quarters. Packers do that, despite their inadequacies.

Jags +15.5 over Texans, 13-27

-Texans will win convincingly but with another game in 4 days they let off the gas pedal and let Jacksonville cover this.

Rams -3.5 over Jets, 24-10

-I hate to copy Simmons, but….TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW. However, I have a different reason for this than the Sports Guy. I want to see Tebow, because I want to see it get even worse in NY.

Bucs -1.5 over Panthers, 31-27

-The Bucs are rounding into shape offensively, and only the fact that their pass defense is so bad makes this competitive. It will definitively be high scoring.

Saints -4.5 over Raiders, 31-17

-Like the Ravens game from last week, the Raiders are just bad and only garbage time makes this look prettier. Saints get to .500 and stay competitive for the playoffs. Image if they run off another a 3 in a row and the Falcons drop one or two between now and their next matchup.

Colts +9.5 over Patriots, 24-33

-I like the Patriots to keep doing consistently what they have been doing: winning by jumping out to huge leads and then letting their feet off the pedal enough to make it interesting. But rookie QBs just don’t win in Foxboro.

Chargers +8.5 over Broncos, 24-27

-Manning wins late, but Chargers cover. The fact that it got over 7 made this a no brainer.

Ravens -3.5 over Steelers, 27-13

-People who think that Ben’s injury doesn’t matter are CONFUSED. Leftwich’s throwing motion is longer and slower than my redraft columns.

Bears +4.5 over Niners, 21-20

-Perhaps the lesson in concussions is that the player should sit out whenever they have one, even if they pass the tests. However, we might not be able to tell, as the Bears defense was going to make Alex Smith look bad no matter if he was concussed or not. The Bears are my Superbowl pick, and I’m staying with it. And Alex Smith’s 70.5% completion percentage has REGRESSION written all over it.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 75-42

By Spread: 61-56

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 464-239
By Spread: 381-329

NFL 2012 Week 10 Predictions

Finally, an awesome week. Let’s keep it rolling:

Colts -3.5 over Jags, 21-13

-I just don’t trust the Jags’ ability to score. And I believe in Luck. Who covers Wayne?

Falcons -1.5 over Saints, 34-27

-Shootout, but the Falcons are good enough on defense to hold on to this. Matt Ryan can make a major MVP stance with a huge day.

Pats -10.5 over Bills, 37-17

-Patriots are awesome at home, after byes, and in the second half of the year. And almost every single time against the Bills. Check and mate.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Broncos -3.5 over Panthers, 24-16

-Apparently the Broncos are decent. I don’t like it, but I’ll lay 3.5. Cam versus Peyton? Guess that is enough.

Lions -1.5 over Vikings, 23-20

-Stafford is clicking, Vikings are going the wrong way, and the underrated portion of this Lions team is the tough defense, even against the running of AP. This should be a good one though.

Bengals +3.5 over Giants, 20-23

-I continue to think the Bengals are decent, but the Giants are too solid to mess this up. Who covers AJ Green though? This is the kind of game that the Giants might mess up, so the points are best.

Raiders +10.5 over Ravens, 27-28

-Ravens simply can’t lose a game like this, but that is WAY too many points. Carson might have another 400-4-4-4 game. Points if you can figure out those categories.

Dolphins -5.5 over Titans, 20-12

-Dolphins are slightly better than decent. Titans are almost decent. Titans run it decently. Dolphins rock at defending that. 20-12 sounds right.

Seahawks -5.5 over Jets, 20-12

-Actually, see above. Pretty much the same thing kind of situation.

Cowboys -1.5 over Eagles, 24-13

-Cowboys have pretty decent pass defense, and Vick remains on the self destruct path. Dangerous game to put any faith into.

Rams +11.5 over Niners, 14-23

-Rams will just keep it too close to lay 11 points. Not quite willing to give it an upset special, but not that far off.

Steelers -11.5 over Chiefs, 27-10

-Shaking my head. This could be ugly.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-1

By Spread: 8-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 68-38

By Spread: 55-50

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 457-235
By Spread: 375-323

NFL 2012 Week 9 Predictions

Top 5

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. Houston  

4. San Francisco

5. Green Bay

Bottom 5

28. Philadelphia

29. Cleveland

30. Oakland

31. Kansas City  

32. Jacksonville

Packers -9.5 over Cards, 31-17

-Packers will just score too much. Man Cardinals, get a quarterback.

Ravens -3.5 over Browns, 20-13

-Ravens, despite injuries, are still just much better. Browns will play them tough though.

Texans -9.5 over Bills, 35-13

-Bills either win or lose big each week. So the probable result here is a Texans blowout, considering the disparity in talent levels between these two teams.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -3.5 over Titans, 34-10

-Hey, there is my “going to be a close game until one team throws a pair of pick sixes” game! I was waiting to see where it would show up.

-2^nd best eliminator game.

Bengals +4.5 over Broncos, 27-28

-Broncos win a late one, but 4.5 feels like a little too much. Dalton does just fine in this matchup of quarterbacks on totally different ends of the age spectrum.

Lions -4.5 over Jags, 27-16

-Lions are going to try something crazy and get a lead in this one and try to keep it. Gonna be a thing. Don’t always have to come from behind Lions, you know that right?

Colts +1.5 over Dolphins, 24-16

-Continue to love teams with quarterbacks versus teams without one. Luck to Wayne is big in this one as the Dolphins are good against the run and decidedly not against the pass. If Tannehill plays, it is more like a 3 point game.

Vikings +4.5 over Seahawks, 19-21

-Too many field goals + Seahawks home advantage leads to a Seattle win. But for a defensive game with the two most dynamic offensive players being on the Vikings, you can’t lay 4.5.

Giants -3.5 over Steelers, 27-10

-Nothing against the Steelers, simply a pick for the spirit of NY. The whole “flying in a few hours before the game from Pittsburgh” thing isn’t really good either. Eli has a big day.

Falcons -3.5 over Cowboys, 31-24

-It isn’t that the Cowboys cannot score enough points to hang with the Falcons. They totally can. It just seems like most of the time the Cowboys would get to 30+ points it would require a volume that presents the opportunity for Romo to throw 7 picks. I’ll take the nice, safe, consistent Falcons. A loss here essentially ends the Cowboys being a serious playoff team, as I said last week would happen. Sorry Dallas.

Saints -3 over Eagles, 31-25

-The Sproles injury troubles me, but I really think the Eagles are balancing on the edge of disaster. Vick could light this up. However, he has equal chance of being horrible right off the bat and then this could be over. You’ve been warned, either go with the Saints or just stay away. The over, on the other hand, is a nice time right now.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-3

By Spread: 6-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 58-37

By Spread: 47-47

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 447-234
By Spread: 367-320

MIKE