NFL 2012 Week 17 Predictions

Happy Holidays everyone, and congrats to those who now have fantasy titles, welcome to the club. And for those who finished in second or third (I have 1 and 3 of those finishes myself this year), congrats as well on strong seasons. Last regular season predictions, enjoy. 

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Nothing Changed there.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both shaky but it really seems they will be there in the end.

In Contention: Atlanta and Seattle. For different reasons, don’t know if they will be there in the end.

Wild Card:  Houston, despite what has happened to them lately. And the Giants. Just in case. Even if they are eliminated, I will probably list them here. Just to be safe. I don’t have residual issues at all.

The picks are going to be fast and quick, as many of these games don’t matter and will be hard to predict.

Week 17

-Bengals over Ravens is meaningless. I am going to guess a Baltimore win, as they kind of want the 3 seed.

Saints -5 over Panthers, 34-27

-Should be a high score here, but the Saints are hot enough to end the season with a win and return to equilibrium at .500.

Bears -3 over Lions, 27-19

-Simply a case of one team needing it and the other wanting a record. Stafford throws, oh, 48 times easily? By the way, Calvin isn’t actually getting a lot of garbage time yards, so I don’t know why people are fixating on that. What is more interesting is his propensity for getting tackled at the one yard line.

Steelers -7 over Browns, 23-6

-This pick has everything to do with how horrendous Cleveland is going to perform on offense. Thad Lewis? Ugh.

Packers -3.5 over Vikings, 37-20

-Peterson has a HUGE day but the Packers want that one seed.

Texans -3 over Colts, 19-10

-Colts are going to be the 5, and very well could see the Texans in two weeks AGAIN (I have a standing prediction with a friend that the Colts go into Baltimore and kill the Ravens if it schedules out that way). So the Texans kind of try to just technically seal up the situation and the Colts play really vanilla to not let anything get out about game plans.

TEN-JAX is also meaningless, and just should be an agreed-upon tie so that the game doesn’t have to take place. Wait, I have Justin Blackmon as a key player this week in a title game. PLAY ON!

Dolphins +10.5 over Pats, 23-24

-Something is telling me the Pats are going to punt this game to avoid Denver in the next round by purposely falling to the 4 seed. And in general, I just don’t trust teams like the Pats in the final game in situations like this. Bill will do whatever he thinks best. I’m just not going to bet on what that will be. If they try even a little they win this, but 10.5? No way.

Bills -4.5 over Jets, 21-12

-Bet on the team without a center, or the team without skill? I guess I’ll go with Buffalo. At least they are at home and have Spiller. Wait, Sanchez is playing? Okay, I’m definitively in.

Giants -7 over Eagles, 26-15

-One more chance for Vick to turn it over 4 times. Or, you know, catch fire and convince a team to make him their starter next year. (Please come to the Jets Vick. Please! I’m literally salivating).

ATL-TB is meaningless, no idea how long ATL starters play.

Cards +16.5 over 49ers, 13-26

-Always take over a two touchdown spread when a team A. Starts throwing to its best guy again and B. the opponent just got butt whooped. That duo of situations has gotta find a place in my manifesto somewhere…

Chiefs +16.5 over Broncos, 13-24

-Broncos probably win this easy, but then they start looking ahead and resting guys. NE will probably somehow be down 23-0 at this point while Brady is having a Mountain Dew on the sidelines as Ryan Mallett does his best Drew Bledsoe out there and Denver will get the hint. Plus, Jamaal Charles IS really good.

SD-OAK: I predict because neither team will be able to field a complete unit, they agree to take knees from halftime onward. And while watching from the sidelines, Ryan Mathews breaks another clavicle.

Rams +10.5 over Seahawks, 17-27

-Rams play the Hawks close, are better than most think, and this is another game where we have no idea what will matter at this point in time. If the Niners are up 24-0 on the Cards at half, Seattle may look to build the trade value of Matt Flynn.

Cowboys +3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 29-27

-I’m taking the 3.5 because that is just too big a number in such a close contest, but I am taking Dallas for the win because the Cowboys have reverse suckered us in. they lost the game they really needed last week. Now, in Washington, against the wonderrook, we are all expecting them to choke. That is why I predict they will win.

This game, ladies and gentleman, is the holiday playoff gift to us all. Especially if it is Dallas who wins. Whoever they host, Chicago or Seattle most likely, just take in the Wild Card round, ignoring the line, and celebrate your victory as Romo or RGIII look so overwhelmed. I’m already excited.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 13-2

By Spread: 11-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 133-71

By Spread: 109-94

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 522-268
By Spread: 429-367

NFL 2012 Week 16 Predictions

Almost to the end. At least several teams showed us their true colors last week, in the form of total roll overs and give ups (I’m looking at you, Jags, Chiefs, Bucs, and Lions). Good on Arizona and Oakland for kind of trying. I would include the Ravens in the list of four teams above but they were actually trying so that’s scary.

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Just the most likely combination to make it right now, both are coming together well.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both showed quality last week. Both also showed enormous flaws.

In Contention: Atlanta and Houston. The “hey guy, we are here too!” tier. They lose to good teams, and beat up on bad ones. Guess what happens when they would play the four teams above them in this column in January?

Wild Card: New York Giants. I don’t want to talk about it. I don’t like them, I just won’t be turning my back on them ever.

Falcons -3.5 over Lions, 34-17

-Oh YEAH. Lions have packed it in. Coach getting fired number 1.

Dolphins -4 over Bills, 17-12

-One team is trying, one isn’t. Coach getting fired number 2.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-Simmons said the Steelers are aggressively mediocre. Sounds about right. Bengals are better than people gave them credit for.

Colts -7 over Chiefs, 20-6

-I’d be insulted with a 7 point line if I were the Colts. Coach getting fired number 3.

Vikings +9.5 over Texans, 24-27

-Peterson.

Saints +1.5 over Cowboys, 29-27

-Cmon everyone. This is what the Cowboys do. They get us all excited, we are all looking forward to the matchup for the Cowboys next week versus Washington, and then they lose the preceding game. Brees is going to throw it 60 times no matter what. This clearly has to happen.

Patriots -14.5 over Jags, 41-14

-Pats angry. Chad Henne. Coach being fired number 4.

Panthers -9.5 over Raiders, 24-10

-Panthers trying to save Rivera’s job? I don’t know if that will work but they will blow out the hapless Raiders here. So, coach being fired number 5 and 6.

Chargers +3.5 over Jets, 14-12

-Chargers are being given 3.5, and that is the only reason I am taking this sorry excuse for a matchup. Coach being fired number 7 and 8.

Rams +3.5 over Bucs, 24-23

-I think the Bucs have given up. And I am starting Sam Bradford in a title game this week. So, just hoping really?

In all seriousness, full respect to what Fisher has done with this Rams team. It just feels different, they are respectable. I was the first to harp on how he underachieved with the Rams (as many seasons out of the playoffs than in, record near .500 lifetime), but being competitive each week and trying is worth a lot. Respect.

Packers -12.5 over Titans, 31-10

-I know the Packers haven’t blown anyone out, but it is coming, the Titans are not good (they should have killed the Jets), and now the Packers really need it. Jeff Saturday is being benched. Nice guy, but I think it was time and that will improve the pass protection for the Pack.

Browns +13.5 over Broncos, 24-27

-Something doesn’t feel right here. I don’t think the Broncos get tripped up, but they may be looking at the final two games at home as gimmes. I think the Chiefs game is, but the Browns are a tough team and this could be closer than it appears. Feels a little like Chiefs over the Packers in week 15 last year. And sadly, coach being fired number 9.

Bears -5.5 over Cards, 21-10

-Neither team is right, but the Cards are done. So, probably, is Coach Wiz. Coach being fired number 10.

Giants -1 over Ravens, 20-16

-The Trainwreck bowl, at least right now. I’ll take the NASCAR package over the unblinking Jim Caldwell.

Seahawks PK over Niners, 20-17

-Simply due to how hot the Seahawks are right now and the fact that SF had to travel on shorter rest than usual.  A great game, however, and hopefully terrible for their running backs for my fantasy purposes.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 12-4

By Spread: 9-7

Record this year:

Straight Up: 120-69

By Spread: 98-91

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 509-266
By Spread: 418-364

NFL 2012 Week 15 Predictions

Okay, not a good week by me. I got a lot of the basics right, but the lines were all off for some reason. I am hoping with many playoff pictures clearing up, I will be able to hit a better percentage this week.

By the way, I am staying away from NYJ-TEN this week, mainly because I have no idea how that is going to go. However, the best part of that game is that because it is the MNF game, we all will know how our fantasy matchups ended up because NO ONE SHOULD BE PLAYING ANYONE FROM THAT GAME IN A SERIOUS MATCH.  

Bengals -4.5 over Eagles, 28-22

-One team needs it. One team is not only out but got its “crap we can’t go into the offseason on a 12 game losing streak so let’s just win ONE of these games” game out of the way. I am going to totally ignore this logic with Arizona later.

Ravens +3.5 over Broncos, 23-24

-Broncos are hot right now but these Ravens are still tough. Ravens could do the Pats a favor and pull the Broncos out of the 2-seed conversation, but I think it is more likely only a cover.

Packers -3 over Bears, 27-20

-My team is just going the WRONG way. Marshall continues his streak and has a big game here though.

Colts +9.5 over Texans, 24-30

-If this were in Indy, I’d pick the upset. The timing is just right. But it is in Houston, so the cover is the deal here. 9.5 points GIVEN to a 9-4 team. Um, disrespect much? You know what? Screw it. Colts +9.5 over Texans, 24-23. I’m going for it.

Jags +7.5 over Fins, 14-20

-The Dolphins lay 7.5 to no team.

Vikings +2.5 over Rams, 21-20

-One team has one dynamic player. There’s your difference.

Giants +1.5 over Falcons, 31-13

-Remember the playoffs? The Giants do, but I am pretty sure all the Falcons have spent some time trying to repress that memory.

Saints -3.5 over Bucs, 30-26

-A lot of points, Bucs are now falling off so the Saints win.

Browns +2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 22-20

-Assuming RG3 doesn’t play or plays rusty and slow. Browns are better than you think, and the Dog Pound should get up for this one. This is a nice young team learning how to win. Of course, you could say the same about Washington, but their rookie is injured.

Panthers +3.5 over Chargers, 21-20

-Cam is hot, and the Chargers still have Norv Turner.

Lions -6 over Cards, 31-3

-Cards are just bad. Brian Hoyer, fresh off the waiver wire, is clearly their best option at QB. Ugh.

Seahawks -5.5 over Bills, 24-13

-Bills weren’t good then lost a top three player on their team and their starting center. Seahawks D might be the most common “player” on championship teams this year.

Raiders -3 over Chiefs, 17-11

-Because at least the Raiders can score. Somewhat.

Cowboys +2 over Steelers, 20-19

-Because the Steelers still aren’t completely healthy and the Cowboys are inherently unpredictable.

Patriots -5 over 49ers, 30-20

-It would be hard to predict NE to beat two tough opponents in a row, but the games are at home, the Pats don’t lose there or in December, and they are clicking like crazy right now. Pats’ DVOA is somewhat ridiculous. Two quick points: 1. Brady took the three extra days after Thanksgiving to break down SF then since he knew he would need the extra time to study them. 2. The Pats, assuming Gronk is back and healthy for the playoffs, will have Lloyd Welker Gronk and Hernandez together for the 1^st time since Week 1. This could be the third highest scoring team EVER and have its best players healthy only once or twice all season long.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-6

By Spread: 4-10

Record this year:

Straight Up: 108-65

By Spread: 89-84

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 497-262
By Spread: 409-357

NFL 2012 Week 14 Predictions

Falcons -3.5 over Panthers, 34-10

-Best eliminator pick

Ravens +2.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 21-20

Bears -2.5 over Vikings, 24-16

Bengals -2.5 over Cowboys, 31-27

Chiefs +6.5 over Browns, 17-19

Bucs -8.5 over Eagles, 20-10

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Chargers +6.5 over Steelers, 13-19

Rams +3.5 over Bills, 19-14

Colts -4.5 over Titans, 27-10

Dolphins +10.5 over 49ers, 10-20

Cards +10.5 over Seahawks, 12-22

Saints +4.5 over Giants, 27-31

Packers -6.5 over Lions, 31-23

Pats -3.5 over Texans, 28-23

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-8

By Spread: 7-8

Record this year:

Straight Up: 100-59

By Spread: 85-74

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 489-256
By Spread: 405-347

NFL 2012 Week 13 Predictions

Ground out a nice 9-6 last week, time to focus on the stretch run. A lot of 4-6 point lines this week, some curious ones too.

Cardinals +4.5 over Jets, 21-10

-Jets are terrible. Cardinals are still a plus defense against the pass. 4.5 points?  Sure, sign me up. Let’s just ignore that the Cards don’t have an offensive line.

Panthers -3 over Chiefs, 27-14

-Ugh, Panthers aren’t good but this Chief team will be too busy asking for Cam’s autograph to win. Rivera>Crennel, um, I think?

Texans -6 over Titans, 31-10

-6 points? 6 points? I don’t understand. Titans fire their offensive coordinator and Jake Locker is still involved.

-Best eliminator pick

Colts +5.5 over Lions, 24-23

-Don’t bet against Chuck or Luck. New rules to live by. Lions have “on the edge of quitting” potential. At least the wide receivers will probably line up in the right places this week.

Jags +5.5 over Bills, 24-20

-I picked up Chad Henne in a long term keeper league today. I’m starting him in a major playoff matchup. I don’t even know what else to say about myself. In my defense, my other option was Phil Rivers.

Packers -9.5 over Vikings, 34-21

-Packers make some key adjustments for the offensive line and do just fine. Vikings are a nice team, but this is the part of the season where teams in it that need to win put the foot down.

Patriots -9 over Dolphins, 34-14

-Pats blowout the rookie quarterback. They’ve scored 10 points shy of 200 over the last 4 games. Have fun everyone.  

-Second best eliminator pick

Bears -3 over Seahawks, 21-13

-Those corners will be missed when Brandon Marshall goes off for 9-120-2. Bears roll over the Seahawks, who are untrustable right now.

Rams +8.5 over Niners, 20-21

-Tough divisional game between two plus defenses. 8.5 is just too much. Upset would not surprise me here.

Bucs +8.5 over Broncos, 27-24

-WAY too many points. Bucs are playing well here, and the Broncos will slip up at some point.

Bengals -1 over Chargers, 28-12

-Norv. All about Norv. Bengals are playing really well anyways.

Browns -1.5 over Raiders, 24-20

-Browns are simply a much better team. Tougher, stronger, and more talented. Cry Oakland, cry: Cleveland is better than you.

Ravens -3 over Steelers, 27-6

-With Batch in, any number of turnovers is possible.  And the Ravens will turn those turnovers into more points than Cleveland did.

Cowboys -9.5 over Eagles, 28-9

-No faith in the Cowboys but this Eagles team is DONE. Turn them over. Fire Reid now. Please.

Giants -9.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 31-20

-Washington is feisty, but these are the defending champs. Please, Giants roll. By the way, RGIII is great, but Luck is the rookie of the year. Records people, look at the records.

Good luck for everyone starting their fantasy playoffs/trying to get in on the last week. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-6

By Spread: 9-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 93-51

By Spread: 78-66

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 482-248
By Spread: 398-339

NFL 2012 Week 12 Predictions

Another good week, we are getting that record up. Short week, so these are out quickly. Enjoy everyone, Happy Thanksgiving.

Lions +3.5 over Texans, 21-20

-Lions are not good, but Texans are traveling on a holiday Thursday to Detroit after playing a killer overtime game in Houston on Sunday afternoon. Houston is better in a vacuum, but the vacuum isn’t pressurized on the Houston side for this one. Don’t know if they can overcome that.

Cowboys -3.5 over Ethnic Slurs, 24-20

-Washington is doing 3 days rest on the road, and the Cowboys have more a realistic shot at the playoffs and that starts to weigh on people’s minds. Dallas lights it up deep as the Washington secondary shows its stripes.

Pats -6 over Jets, 31-13

-The Gronk thing hurts for sure, but the return of Hernandez will help a lot and the Pats are rolling in every area. Typically the last few years the Pats play the Jets once tight and blow them out the other time. So, here is the blowout on national TV. Big game by Lloyd is somewhere in here, waiting to happen.

Colts -3 over Bills, 23-17

-Home game respect? I still don’t really get this line. Forget the NE game, the Colts are much better than the Bills. This is the matchup of the teams I projected to go 6^th and 7^th in the AFC: still wish I had flopped the prediction there.

Browns +3.5 over Steelers, 17-16

-Upset special. As much as an upset this can be with Charlie Batch and Plaxico Burress involved.

Bengals -7.5 over Raiders, 28-20

-AJ Green. AJ Green. AJ Green.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -4.5 over Vikings, 24-17

-Assuming Cutler plays, or I withdraw the guess. Either way, the Bears I think come up with a lot of spirit after whatever funkiness happened last week.

Not going to dignify Titans and Jags with a guess. This game should be televised in the home markets, on Redzone, or even for the parents of the quarterbacks. Ugh.

Falcons -1 over Bucs, 30-27

-Falcons win a shootout. They aren’t elite, but they are still good and find ways to win.

Seahawks -2.5 over Dolphins, 20-6

-Seattle will contain and crush the Dolphins. Tannehill has regressed, which is sad because I liked him.

Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs, 28-9

-Chiefs are just bad. No QB and no Bowe now, with Broncos rolling.

-Best Eliminator Pick  

Ravens -1.5 over Chargers, 21-19

-Ravens are just catching the Chargers while their soul has been stomped on. Ravens probably aren’t better but this is how it is going to go down. Waiting for that Ray Rice huge game, it is coming.

Saints +2.5 over 49ers, 31-23

-Alex Smith concussed is bad or Colin Kapernick in a more extended look gets exposed. Don’t look now, the Saints are playing MUCH better defense. Saints will light them up and I don’t trust the 49ers to keep up.

Cardinals +2.5 over Rams, 17-16

-Not getting off my Cards now. Ryan Lindley! Gonna be a thing! I even played this game out in Madden and won, and whatever I do with the Cardinals in Madden happens. I have friends that can attest to this.

Packers +3 over Giants, 30-28

-Packers are better right now than the Giants, even if the Giants are rested. I feel like the over is a good bet here.

Panthers +2.5 over Eagles, 20-19

-Just because the Eagles are terrible. The Panthers are less terrible. I mean, kind of.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-3

By Spread: 8-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 84-45

By Spread: 69-60

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 473-242
By Spread: 389-333

NFL 2012 Week 11 Predictions

Well, my results this week were .500 or better, so that’s something. Just such an ugly year. Going to get cuter this week. Normally when I tell someone that I am about to get cute with a game, I am about to throw an interception in Madden. So…here we go.

Cards +9.5 over Falcons, 20-27

-Falcons probably win, but Arizona is really highly ranked in pass defense. I think the Cards used the bye week to figure out a way to get some production from the pass offense, and they will be good enough to cover this.

Bengals -3.5 over Chiefs, 24-10

-Chiefs aren’t winning again this year. They are really bad.

Okay, you want more? Cassel or Quinn will be the QB. Romeo Crennel is still involved. They have two “over celebration” penalties last week on plays that didn’t technically happen because they were called back due to penalties. They have decided not to give their best player the ball, or at least, will only do so infrequently.

Browns +9.5 over Cowboys, 20-19

-Shiiish, don’t tell anyone! The Cleveland Browns are really tough on the lines, have good linebacking, and can run block decently well. 9.5 is a gift. It will only take a turnover fest to turn this from a cover into an upset. Not that like that likely to happen…oh wait. Everyone, the 2012 Dallas Cowboys!

Packers -3 over Lions, 31-27

-Packers just will score too much. Jordy Nelson being back healthy will make a big difference. Lions are decent, but they need to learn to play 4 quarters. Packers do that, despite their inadequacies.

Jags +15.5 over Texans, 13-27

-Texans will win convincingly but with another game in 4 days they let off the gas pedal and let Jacksonville cover this.

Rams -3.5 over Jets, 24-10

-I hate to copy Simmons, but….TEBOW TEBOW TEBOW. However, I have a different reason for this than the Sports Guy. I want to see Tebow, because I want to see it get even worse in NY.

Bucs -1.5 over Panthers, 31-27

-The Bucs are rounding into shape offensively, and only the fact that their pass defense is so bad makes this competitive. It will definitively be high scoring.

Saints -4.5 over Raiders, 31-17

-Like the Ravens game from last week, the Raiders are just bad and only garbage time makes this look prettier. Saints get to .500 and stay competitive for the playoffs. Image if they run off another a 3 in a row and the Falcons drop one or two between now and their next matchup.

Colts +9.5 over Patriots, 24-33

-I like the Patriots to keep doing consistently what they have been doing: winning by jumping out to huge leads and then letting their feet off the pedal enough to make it interesting. But rookie QBs just don’t win in Foxboro.

Chargers +8.5 over Broncos, 24-27

-Manning wins late, but Chargers cover. The fact that it got over 7 made this a no brainer.

Ravens -3.5 over Steelers, 27-13

-People who think that Ben’s injury doesn’t matter are CONFUSED. Leftwich’s throwing motion is longer and slower than my redraft columns.

Bears +4.5 over Niners, 21-20

-Perhaps the lesson in concussions is that the player should sit out whenever they have one, even if they pass the tests. However, we might not be able to tell, as the Bears defense was going to make Alex Smith look bad no matter if he was concussed or not. The Bears are my Superbowl pick, and I’m staying with it. And Alex Smith’s 70.5% completion percentage has REGRESSION written all over it.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 75-42

By Spread: 61-56

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 464-239
By Spread: 381-329

NFL 2012 Week 10 Predictions

Finally, an awesome week. Let’s keep it rolling:

Colts -3.5 over Jags, 21-13

-I just don’t trust the Jags’ ability to score. And I believe in Luck. Who covers Wayne?

Falcons -1.5 over Saints, 34-27

-Shootout, but the Falcons are good enough on defense to hold on to this. Matt Ryan can make a major MVP stance with a huge day.

Pats -10.5 over Bills, 37-17

-Patriots are awesome at home, after byes, and in the second half of the year. And almost every single time against the Bills. Check and mate.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Broncos -3.5 over Panthers, 24-16

-Apparently the Broncos are decent. I don’t like it, but I’ll lay 3.5. Cam versus Peyton? Guess that is enough.

Lions -1.5 over Vikings, 23-20

-Stafford is clicking, Vikings are going the wrong way, and the underrated portion of this Lions team is the tough defense, even against the running of AP. This should be a good one though.

Bengals +3.5 over Giants, 20-23

-I continue to think the Bengals are decent, but the Giants are too solid to mess this up. Who covers AJ Green though? This is the kind of game that the Giants might mess up, so the points are best.

Raiders +10.5 over Ravens, 27-28

-Ravens simply can’t lose a game like this, but that is WAY too many points. Carson might have another 400-4-4-4 game. Points if you can figure out those categories.

Dolphins -5.5 over Titans, 20-12

-Dolphins are slightly better than decent. Titans are almost decent. Titans run it decently. Dolphins rock at defending that. 20-12 sounds right.

Seahawks -5.5 over Jets, 20-12

-Actually, see above. Pretty much the same thing kind of situation.

Cowboys -1.5 over Eagles, 24-13

-Cowboys have pretty decent pass defense, and Vick remains on the self destruct path. Dangerous game to put any faith into.

Rams +11.5 over Niners, 14-23

-Rams will just keep it too close to lay 11 points. Not quite willing to give it an upset special, but not that far off.

Steelers -11.5 over Chiefs, 27-10

-Shaking my head. This could be ugly.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-1

By Spread: 8-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 68-38

By Spread: 55-50

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 457-235
By Spread: 375-323

NFL 2012 Week 9 Predictions

Top 5

1. Atlanta

2. Chicago

3. Houston  

4. San Francisco

5. Green Bay

Bottom 5

28. Philadelphia

29. Cleveland

30. Oakland

31. Kansas City  

32. Jacksonville

Packers -9.5 over Cards, 31-17

-Packers will just score too much. Man Cardinals, get a quarterback.

Ravens -3.5 over Browns, 20-13

-Ravens, despite injuries, are still just much better. Browns will play them tough though.

Texans -9.5 over Bills, 35-13

-Bills either win or lose big each week. So the probable result here is a Texans blowout, considering the disparity in talent levels between these two teams.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Bears -3.5 over Titans, 34-10

-Hey, there is my “going to be a close game until one team throws a pair of pick sixes” game! I was waiting to see where it would show up.

-2^nd best eliminator game.

Bengals +4.5 over Broncos, 27-28

-Broncos win a late one, but 4.5 feels like a little too much. Dalton does just fine in this matchup of quarterbacks on totally different ends of the age spectrum.

Lions -4.5 over Jags, 27-16

-Lions are going to try something crazy and get a lead in this one and try to keep it. Gonna be a thing. Don’t always have to come from behind Lions, you know that right?

Colts +1.5 over Dolphins, 24-16

-Continue to love teams with quarterbacks versus teams without one. Luck to Wayne is big in this one as the Dolphins are good against the run and decidedly not against the pass. If Tannehill plays, it is more like a 3 point game.

Vikings +4.5 over Seahawks, 19-21

-Too many field goals + Seahawks home advantage leads to a Seattle win. But for a defensive game with the two most dynamic offensive players being on the Vikings, you can’t lay 4.5.

Giants -3.5 over Steelers, 27-10

-Nothing against the Steelers, simply a pick for the spirit of NY. The whole “flying in a few hours before the game from Pittsburgh” thing isn’t really good either. Eli has a big day.

Falcons -3.5 over Cowboys, 31-24

-It isn’t that the Cowboys cannot score enough points to hang with the Falcons. They totally can. It just seems like most of the time the Cowboys would get to 30+ points it would require a volume that presents the opportunity for Romo to throw 7 picks. I’ll take the nice, safe, consistent Falcons. A loss here essentially ends the Cowboys being a serious playoff team, as I said last week would happen. Sorry Dallas.

Saints -3 over Eagles, 31-25

-The Sproles injury troubles me, but I really think the Eagles are balancing on the edge of disaster. Vick could light this up. However, he has equal chance of being horrible right off the bat and then this could be over. You’ve been warned, either go with the Saints or just stay away. The over, on the other hand, is a nice time right now.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-3

By Spread: 6-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 58-37

By Spread: 47-47

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 447-234
By Spread: 367-320

MIKE

2012 NBA Redraft Odyssey: MB vs VP

VP - As the start of a new NBA season arrives in full force, Bliss and I have returned to bring you this year’s Redraft column. Now if you need a refresher on what we’re talking about, this column will be a Simmons-style trade value column, except we will be “redrafting” the top 60 current NBA players, based on the players’ current levels and their potentials, to create 30 tandems to create our own “bizarro NBA.” Now, this is going to be a geography-independent (as you’ll see once you see the “teams” that are doing the drafting) and a completely biased endeavor, but we’re hoping to alleviate that last issue with our differing viewpoints and some statistical grounding.

MB - Let’s draft!


THE MAIN EVENT
MB - The Redraft Rule Book:
1.      Any current NBA player is eligible. They must have either played last year or
clearly be playing this coming year.
2.      Their current salary doesn’t matter. All the 1st round players would get max
level contracts under a similar CBA to what is in place now (say 14-17 million
based on slot). 2nd round players would get a star level contract not quite at the
first round level (9-13 million based on slot). The old contracts wouldn’t matter.
Technically, you could consider their motivation level based on past income, but
for the purposes of this column, we will not consider this factor much.
3.      Assume you are getting the player for the next 5 years. The lesson of this is, of
course, that the age (and games logged) of the player matters.
4.      We won’t count minor injuries, especially in the scope of 5 years. Kevin Love’s
hand injury won’t be a big consideration, though Dirk’s knee might be. Amare’s   knee is in no way minor.
5.      We will not considering offensive systems or anything like that. Assume that the
coaches who will work with these teams are smart enough to cater to the two starters that they immediately receive. Vinny Del Negro isn’t involved at all.

VP - For those of you keeping track at home, let’s get to the most glaring missed calls from last year first - both Bliss and I passed on LeBron in the top 5 for the Redraft/Value column and predicted a Thunder over Bulls finals matchup. Ouch. In our defense, Rose got hurt, but in all honesty, LBJ was probably not going to be stopped from grabbing his first ring this past season. Our Rose/Durant/Dwight/Deron picks are still pretty defensible despite the injuries, but Bliss reached with Melo and I definitely reached with Amare (can you tell that we’ve both lived in NY?). Chris Paul made us pay for doubting him by proving his worth in the short-term, although we were oddly prescient with our LeBron/Ray Allen pairing, so I’d say that’s a wash (whistles while changing the topic, Mike is death staring me now). Now without further ado, let’s start this year’s redraft odyssey!



1. VP - Seattle Supersonics take Kevin Durant.
MB - No argument. Perhaps the best talent, best character, and best “asset” a franchise can have right now. 23 years old. And I totally thought of the team name.

2. MB - Akron Integrity select LeBron James. I hate it, but the talent is there and he is in his prime. Hard to argue against it. And the second best team name I thought of.
VP - It’s the right pick, but I can still hate it. I’m just glad I didn’t have to make it.

3. VP -  Bangor Moose take Dwight Howard.
MB - Ouch, ouch, ouch. Sorry, my back started hurting all of a sudden.
VP - The back injury worries me too, but it’s hard not to take the league’s best center at this spot.

4. MB - Key West Polar Bears take Kevin Love.
VP - Great rebounder + versatile scorer + deft passer = bona fide franchise cornerstone.

5. VP - Reno Rim Runners take Russell Westbrook
MB - RW has more value without Durant, so this is the right place for him.
VP - Finally free to be the alpha dog he is.

6. MB - Hawaii’n Punch take Rajon Rondo.
Honestly, I would have taken him over Westbrook. Rondo has proven to be a strong team leader, raise his game in the playoffs and run a variety of team styles. Oh, and Rondo would look awesome in like Black, grey, and Red highlights. That kind of uniform.
VP - Is that an alternate jersey you made in 2K?
MB - Um, no.....okay maybe.
VP - Team name was mine though.
MB - Credit due, and given.

7. VP - Montana Roam take Deron Williams.
MB - Montana will make sense later readers. And for Deron, I have always loved him and think this is the correct place for him. The last two years have been a little troubling, but overall he might be highest rated PG if you added values across all categories.

8. MB - Alaskan Wilderness take Kyrie Irving. Draws your eye on every single play. Intangibles and tangibles are off the charts. Love him so much. And I want it on record VP wanted to kill me after this pick. That’s a good sign you are doing something right.  
VP - Uncle Drew will be taking all these youngbloods, with their rappity-hippity-hop and flashy shoes, to school for years to come.

9. VP - Kansas City BBQ take DeMarcus Cousins.
MB - Editorial note, this was the name for the previous team, but once VP uttered the horrible words “Demarcus Cousins”, I knew BBQ needed to be reassigned.
VP - His talent level, if harnessed by the right coach, could make his team monstrous.

10. MB - Springfield Loggers take Derrick Rose.
MB - Injury aside, he is talented and has the drive. Adrian Peterson was ripping off 60 yard TD runs, 8 months after an ACL tear. Rose will be balling hard by February and for years to come.
VP - Editorial note: MB originally picked “Derek” Rose. Here is our unedited gchat exchange:

“VP: uh, Derek?
MB: I can’t spell.
VP: No, I think that was a Freudian slip. You miss the Captain.
MB: Oh shove off.”

11. VP - Bristol Kia Shootaround select Blake Griffin.
MB - Don’t like the low post game, but the excitement level is undeniable. He will print tickets. And totally my team name.

12. MB - Woodbury Walking Dead select Lamarcus Aldridge.
MB - The best possible name for a team, amuses me incredibly. Geeking out a little too much.
VP - Safe cornerstone to build around.

13. VP - Princeton-Plainsboro Offense select Andrew Bynum.
VP - Nothing ominous about that being pick #13 at all.
MB - Not at all. Also, what happens when the Offense’s Offensive Production is Offensive? Sorry to go on offense with this commentary, but the Offense made that offense more likely.

14. MB - Nebraska Cornholers take Marc Gasol.
MB - More consistent, less liable for injury than Bynum. Also, currently playing. I would have taken him over Bynum

15. VP - Savannah Long Grass take CP3.
VP - Immediate title window, then tanking for a number 1 pick.
MB - Yup and yup. Don’t know what else to say. That knee is giving. Just is.

16. MB - Montpelier Saps take Josh Smith.
MB - 2nd banana, but still hasn’t hit his prime and made strides last year.

17. VP - Hartford Whalers take Rudy Gay.
MB - As talented as Durant perhaps, but just doesn’t care every other game. I’ll believe it when I see it. The team is so perhaps he would play better closer to home.

18. MB - Tucson Fire Eaters select James Harden.
MB - More than talented enough for this. But he can’t be the lead guy. I’ll match him with someone in the next round that can be the alpha guy. If that makes sense.

19. VP - Baja Peninsula Fresh Fruit selects Ricky Rubio.
VP - It was time to reach and make a bit of a crowd-pleasing move. You’re welcome ladies.
MB - Screw you, a**hole. That was my pick. Oh, sorry. Calmer now.

20. MB - Albuquerque Rough Riders selects Carmelo Anthony.
MB - See how it feels? Huh?! See how it feels VP??? Okay, seriously though, too much talent to ignore. Will sell tickets and score a ton of points. Still has a chance to mature.
VP - Mike, you know I hated him coming to the Knicks from day one. I would never pick him to be the foundation of my franchise. And as a bitter Knicks fan, I can confidently say that he will never mature.
MB - Don’t be repetitive VP. “Bitter” is an unnecessary modifier to “Knicks fan”. Also, Carmelo would love Albuquerque, right?

21. VP - Kentucky Riflemen take Anthony Davis. Fire up the hype machine folks - the Brow is coming back to town!
MB - Fundamentally he needs a lot of work. As a franchise builder, I have no problem with it. I think he becomes more Tyson Chandler than Blake Griffin. That isn’t all a bad thing however.

22. MB - NH Freedom take Greg Monroe. Consistent, would fit well in New Hampshire, very reliable.

23. VP - Delaware Knights take DWade.
MB - I’ll wait to comment until I see his teammate. Not necessarily upset about this.

24. MB - Topeka Twisters take Al Horford. 20-10, 50%, no fuss. Sign me up.

25. VP - Alabama Ironsides take Al Jefferson.
MB - See above. Though I firmly think Horford has a higher ceiling. Won two championships in college. Consistent in the playoffs. Jefferson has neither.

26. MB - Little Rock Gingersnaps take John Wall. Don’t love him but he was a number 1 pick two years ago and has played well. This will be a determining year for him.
VP - Yeah, he fell way too far. Probably a good place for him.

27. VP - Montreal Illuminati takes Tony Parker. I have a near-MVP argument for him actually (shameless plug: http://sportsworldbliss.blogspot.com/2012/10/2012-2013-nba-season-predictions-mb-vs.html)
MB - Parker is simply a leader and a winner. Probably would quietly seethe about being selected behind Wall actually, but take it out in a ridiculously efficient season.

28. MB - Vancouver Ospreys take Pau Gasol. Would be fine as the primary guy.
VP - If this was 3 years ago.

29. VP - Durham Basilisks take Kobe Bryant. Being drafted after Pau will fuel him.
MB - Taking credit for this team name too. Mamba and Duke references.

30. MB - Wyoming Pride takes Andre Iguodala. Defense, leadership, intangibles. And on the flip...
VP - Chief Blocka is a great pick, but he needs an alpha-dog scorer to flourish.

31. MB - Wyoming Pride takes Dirk Nowitzki to partner Iggy. The Pride will be coached by Don Nelson.
VP - A resounding yes. This team would be so much fun to watch.

32. VP - Durham Basilisks take Chris Bosh to pair with Kobe Bryant. They will be coached by Coach K and will hope to recapture some Team USA magic.
MB - Kobe will only attempt to kill Bosh a few times. Probably a good pairing actually.

33. MB - Vancouver Ospreys take Ty Lawson to pair with Pau Gasol. They will be coached by Mike D’Antoni and score 120 points a game.

34. VP - Montreal Illuminati take Serge Ibaka to pair with Tony Parker. They will be coached by Gregg Popovich, of course.

35. MB - Little Rock Gingersnaps take Danny Granger to pair with John Wall. They will be coached by Tony Kornheiser.

36. VP - Alabama Ironsides take Steph Curry to pair with Al Jefferson. They will be coached by Kevin McHale and will try to see if Kobe will sell them some ankle insurance (he will not).

37. MB - Topeka Twisters take Kyle Lowry to pair with Al Horford. They will be coached by Scotty Brooks. Seems about right in terms of temperaments for those players. This team will be a plus team in rebounding and field goal percentage.

38. VP - Delaware Knights take Tyson Chandler to go with DWade. They will be coached by Rick Carlisle on their way to either a ring or a trip to the DL.
MB - Maybe more than any other team, this one will be looking for a young star in the next round to become THE guy in two years. Paul George like. Well, maybe not him exactly because…

39. MB - NH Freedom take Paul George to go with Greg Monroe. They will be coached by Larry Bird. Seems right.

40. VP - Kentucky Riflemen take Steve Nash to go with Anthony Davis. They will be coached by...oh screw it Steve Nash would be the coach anyways.
MB - I don’t hate it: just don’t think it works for the future. And I claim credit for that coach.

41. MB - Albuquerque Rough Riders selects Joakim Noah to pair with Carmelo Anthony. They will be coached by Mike Brown.
VP - (Carmelo screams)
MB - Muhuhuhuhahaha.

42. VP - Baja Peninsula Fresh Fruit selects Klay Thompson to pair with Ricky Rubio. They will be coached by Jason Kidd.
MB – Nice! Like New Jersey after the Vince Carter trade. That didn’t turn out well though.

43. MB - Tucson Fire Eaters selects Kevin Garnett to pair with James Harden. They will be coached by Derek Fisher. Mainly because KG is too hard for most people to handle and Harden should probably be allowed to talk to himself most of the time.

44. VP - Hartford Whalers take Roy Hibbert to pair with Rudy Gay. They will be coached by Hubie Brown.
MB – Absolutely. And a good pairing in terms of usage. Strong defensive team.

45. MB - Montpelier Saps take Brandon Jennings to pair with Josh Smith. They will be coached by Avery Johnson. The crazy team who will force a ton of turnovers, and also commit a ton of turnovers.

46. VP - Savannah Long Grass take Marcin Gortat to pair with CP3. They will be coached by Alvin Gentry.
MB - Just run all the sets they had for Nash and Gortat. Which, you know, wasn’t incredible but was decent.

47. MB - Nebraska Cornholers take Eric Gordon to pair with Marc Gasol. They will be coached by Phoenix’s knee doctor.

48. VP - Princeton-Plainsboro Offense select Jrue Holiday to pair with Andrew Bynum. They will be coached by Doug Collins. Real life, meet bizarro NBA. Bizarro NBA, meet real life.

49. MB - Woodbury Walking Dead select Joe Johnson to pair with Lamarcus Aldridge. They will be coached by Ernie Johnson. Mainly due to temperament.

50. VP - Bristol Kia Shootaround select Monta Ellis to pair with Blake Griffin. They will be coached by Larry Brown, who will quit midseason.

51. MB - Springfield Loggers take Jonas Valanciunas to pair with Derrick Rose. They will be coached by Michael Wilbon, because of the Chicago connections.

52. VP - Kansas City BBQ take Danilo Gallinari to pair with Demarcus Cousins.
MB - They will be coached by a translator. Or something, I don’t know.

53. MB - Alaskan Wilderness take Paul Millsap to go with Kyrie Irving. They will be coached by Kenny the Jet Smith. Just a solid team, guys I think Alaska would love having. Need a shooting guard to add to this, and would be awesome.

54. VP - Montana Roam take Brook Lopez to go with Deron Williams. They will be coached by Jerry Sloan, of course, who already lives in Montana. Deron screams.
MB - I claim credit for that coach selection, there is the Montana connection everyone. It is effing perfect. Gerald Wallace ironically is a great fit for this team coming back around.

55. MB - Hawaii’n Punch take Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to pair with Rajon Rondo. They will be coached by Doc Rivers. I would love to get Kevin Martin or David Lee coming back with this team if we went to three rounds. Or Pierce of course.

56. VP - Reno Rim Runners take Andrew Bogut to pair with Russell Westbrook. They will be coached by Tom Thibodeau.
MB - What a nightmare to defend Westbrook, what a bigger nightmare to try to score on them at all. Add like Thabo, Gerald Wallace, Reggie Evans and this is a monster team.

57. MB - Key West Polar Bears take Mike Conley to go with Kevin Love. They will be coached by Rick Adelman. That clearly worked out for Love last season, so why change a good thing up?

58. VP - Bangor Moose takes Goran Dragic to pair with Dwight Howard. They will be coached by Shaq, of course.
MB - No complaints. Add a couple of shooters, basically the 2008-2009 Magic all over again. That isn’t a bad thing, they did go to the Finals.
VP - Exactly. This could just as easily have been Brandon Knight (who would’ve been perfect with Kevin Love), but I think Goran’s scoring is a better match.

59. MB - Akron Integrity take Andrea Bargnani to pair with Lebron James. They will be coached by Dan Gilbert. Getting a little silly, but Lebron should have to fight with everyone in his organization, on the court and off it. And someone like Bradley Beal coming around again in the third round, that works out really well for this team.

60. VP - Seattle Supersonics take Evan Turner to pair with Kevin Durant. They will be coached by Phil Jackson.
MB – Love it and totally agree. Kind of a Jordan/Pippen like division of responsibilities on this team (ie one scorer who dominates the ball and the other guy is second but more cleans up on defense, rebounds well, and facilitates from a 2-4 position). Let’s project just one more pick. Who would it be?
VP - Probably Duncan. Good right now and room to grow. Duncan can be like David Robinson going forward.
MB - Was thinking Pierce or Knight, but that works. Might be my team to beat considering that third round pick. The Parker/Ibaka/Pop team would be really good too though. They could add Varejao pretty easily in the middle of the third, that would be a dangerous group.

 

MB – Okay everyone, thanks for tagging along with the VP and myself on this redraft odyssey. We had a lot of fun, and appreciate you hanging with us. Have a great year. Even if, you know, your favorite player is traded two nights before the season starts.


-Mike Bliss and Vishal Patel