After 9 days of no basketball that may have
led me to download one of those terrible apps to shoot baskets paper toss style
and download Fultz included Celtics rosters on 2K, we are finally at the NBA Finals.
I have been on the Warriors all year, which I know is not a unique position. I
have seen people all week try to find ways to talk themselves into Cleveland,
working on the Lebron and MJ narratives. The truth is, 538 and Pelton and the
majority of the experts are probably right and the Dubs are going to roll them.
This Warriors team should have beaten this Cavs team in 5 last year. The Cavs
treaded water or got worse (Korver, Fyre, DWilliams are worse defensively than
those they replaced), and the Dubs replaced Harrison with Durant. Check please,
drive through. I’ll spare the suspense and call Warriors in 5 games.
I like to find similarities in other, previous Finals
matchups: they typically help me see past the headlines of the day. To me this series recalls Spurs-Heat II. The Spurs should have won in game 6 the year
before, they came back the next year quieter in the regular season but focused
on the playoffs and blew the doors off the end of the Heatles run. I think the
similarities best work for this series. It is the rematch in which the SF
position on the better team got better (Kahwi improving similar to the Durant
signing), and the rest of the team is focused and wants revenge. It comes down
to positional matchups. Last year Cleveland won at PG and SF. Kyrie torched a
hurt Curry and Lebron was uncontainable. Curry is now healthy, they will have a
better plan for Kyrie, and Durant is the best possible matchup to play Lebron
on defense and influence the game on an elite level on offense ameliorating
James’ impact. Like the Spurs three years ago, I think the Warriors are a
whirling, incisive, back door cut hitting, DHO machine. Cleveland is able to
score, but their defense has only improved to the level of competition they
have.
There are some questions for the Dubs. Iggy
may not be fully healthy, and Clark/McCaw/Zaza don’t inspire confidence.
However, I really think Curry, Klay, Durant, Draymond play 40 minutes each and
they don’t have to use anyone else for more than 20 unless Iggy is healthy and
they want to. Cleveland however has to either get full minutes from JR or play
combinations of Frye-DWill-Korver in lineups that will get gashed defensively.
At the end of the day there are pick and roll combinations of Curry/Durant and
Curry/Dray that can be unleashed with Kyrie/Love defending and that are going
to be disastrous for Cleveland. I hope the contests will be exciting, but it
will likely be short.
