NFL 2011 Week 12 Predictions

Weird week because I pushed exactly on two lines, but I still feel like I have a good feel now.

Short week, here are the picks a little early due to travel for Thanksgiving.

Week 12 Predictions:

Lions +6.5 over the Packers, 34-37

-The Lions could very well win this game, so the points are awfully tempting. The Packers are giving up WAY too many yards and this is the most logical place for a misstep to occur.

Dolphins +7.5 over Cowboys, 24-27

-Miami is playing really well right now and I would either take the points or not pick this game.

Ravens -3 over 49ers, 24-16

-This is the week where the field goal kicking Niners finally are defeated by a team that scores a few touchdowns. The Ravens play up to the level of competition (see games versus the Steelers), and I think this is a game where they assert how good they are. Ray Rice has a big combined yardage day and the Ravens win the battle of the brothers.

Cards +3.5 over Rams, 17-14

-I hate the NFC West.

Bills +8.5 over Jets, 14-17

-Yeah, I don’t know about the results but 8.5 points are too much.

Bengals -7.5 over Browns, 28-13

-The Browns are horrible; Bengals have had the best two losses in recent memory by any team. This may erupt into a romp and AJ Green should continue to take time to heal. Andy Dalton is for real kids.

Texans -3 over Jags, 27-10

-The Jags are horrible. Houston will be trying out Matt Leinart, but they should still be able to win this handily. Too bad no one will be watching.

Panthers -3.5 over Colts, 20-7

-Panthers aren’t great but the Colts are horrendous. Cam has a decent day but honestly will be done by the 3^rd quarter.

Titans -3 over Bucs, 24-20

-I oscillated with this one, but the Titans are at home and their defense is much better. If Hasselbeck doesn’t play, forget this.

Falcons -9.5 over Vikings, 24-10

-Just because the Vikings won’t have Adrian Peterson, and the Falcons are good enough to win this game. This smells like a “21-3 by the midpoint of the second quarter and we run it out from there” game.

Bears +5.5 over Raiders, 20-21

-Raiders probably win but even without Cutler the Bears are good enough to cover.

Seahawks -4 over Skins, 17-7

-Ugh, the Seahawks are thoroughly mediocre, but Clinton Portis could be carrying the ball this week for all we know in Washington this week, backed up by Stephen Davis.

Patriots -3.5 over Eagles, 33-17

-If it is Vick the Pats will punish him physically. If it is Young, Bill will mess with his head. The Pats will put 8 in to contain McCoy, the Eagles probably won’t have Maclin, and DeSean is about due for a boneheaded play filled week. The Pats TEs should roll over the Eagles here.

Steelers -10.5 over Chiefs, 28-6

-Oh Tyler Palko, wow. Bad luck for your first two starts. A friend told me this week “this is the guy who couldn’t make a bad CFL team last year”.

Saints -6.5 over Giants, 31-23

-Love the over for this game, but the Saints major weakness is stopping the run. The Giants cannot run it. That’s it.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 11-2

By Spread: 7-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 85-35

By Spread: 68-51

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 341-168
By Spread: 277-229

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 11 Predictions

Consistently putting up good weeks now and I feel like I have a better read on these teams. Let's get to the predictions: 

Fins -1 over Bills, 17-14

-Not sure about the Fins but I do know the Bills are falling apart. Fins are better than you think and Matt Moore is now comfortable.

Browns -1 over Jags, 14-10

-Let’s just move on. Browns win at home versus the Jags because neither is very good and this will be ugly to watch. I got nothing else to say.

Lions -6.5 over Panthers, 24-14

-Cam is coming back to earth and while the Lions aren’t awesome right now, they should walk all over the Panthers in a vital NFC game.  

Ravens -7 over Bengals, 24-16

-Ravens need this, are at home, and the Bengals won’t have AJ Green.

Cowboys -7.5 over Skins, 31-6

-The Skins are horrible. Truly horrendous. And Dallas is peaking.

Raiders -1 over Vikings, 24-17

-Raiders are just a more physical running/stop the run team. Peterson has a big day but it isn’t enough. Michael Bush has ANOTHER big game but still won’t get respect.

Bucs +14.5 over Packers, 20-31

-Packers win but for some reason I think the Bucs keep it respectable. Freeman could have a 350 yard, 3TD, 3 INT day.

Cards +10.5 over 49ers, 21-20

- Cards are frisky. Who covers Larry Fitz? Frank Gore may not play, be limited if he does. 49ers need to slip up sometime and it would be to a division foe because those games can be unpredictable.

Rams -3 over Seahawks, 20-14

-This is only because the Rams have the better RB, and QB, and are at home. The rest of the two teams are pretty comparable…that is, pretty comparably bad.

Chargers +3.5 over Bears, 27-30

-The Chargers need this so taking the points is the safest bet here. But the matchup is close except that the special teams for the Bears are so much better, and the Bears are at home.

Falcons -6 over Titans, 24-13

-Good team who needs it versus mediocre team that isn’t really going anywhere. Questions?

Giants -5.5 over Eagles, 34-14

-Going to be epic. Eagles are, like I said in the preseason, what is known as “not good”. Giants will make Vince Young look infantile and throw it all over the disorganized Eagles secondary.

Patriots -14 over Chiefs, 37-6

-Good luck Chiefs, seriously. And ESPN will AGAIN be getting killed on ratings in the second half of this blowout. I feel back for Palko, just not a good situation to walk into.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 9-4

By Spread: 9-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 74-33

By Spread: 61-47

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 330-166
By Spread: 270-225

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 10 Predictions

Not perfect, but I got Ravens and Bears over the Steelers and Eagles, and that is what I feel the best about. NFL shaping up. This week, Jets vs. Pats will determine another course of action for the rest of the season.

Jags -3 over Colts, 17-10

-Suck for Luck!

Saints -1 over Falcons, 31-27

-I understand that the Falcons don’t run it well. But, the Saints can just score so much better. Roddy White better have a big game here for the Falcons to get this win.

Bengals +3.5 over Steelers, 20-21

-Steelers probably win because they just had a bad loss and the Bengals, though good, haven’t played anyone yet. However, it being in Cincy, me believing in ROY Andy Dalton (that’s right, I said it), and the extra half point gets to take the Bengals to cover. A win by the Bengals would crush the Steelers and put this in a bind for a division crown and even a WC berth.

Rams +3.5 over Browns, 17-13

-I mean someone has to win. Big difference is that the Rams have a real QB, a real RB, and a real WR. The Browns have none of that. So….yeah.

Chiefs -3 over Broncos, 24-20

-Arrowhead?

Cards +13.5 over Eagles, 14-27

-Eagles will win this game pretty handily, and the Cards don’t do much to exploit the Eagles’ weaknesses. But, 13.5 points are way too much.

Texans -3 over Bucs, 27-20

-The Texans’ defense is for real, and their running game will keep them in control.

Fins -4 over Skins, 20-6

-Skins, your name offends me, your offense offends me, and your owner offends me. Even Matt Moore can dominate you.

Ravens -7 over Seattle, 24-10

-Questions?

Giants +3.5 over 49ers, 24-23

-So here is the deal. The Niners are clearly good. But not 7-1 good. The Giants’ biggest weakness is the pass defense and I am not sure the Niners can exploit that at all. The Giants are pretty good, they beat the Pats and Eagles pretty handily to be honest, and I think the ride stops here for Alex Smith, at least for one week.

Bears -3 over Lions, 30-24

-Lions without Best, and the Bears are rolling better than anyone is seeing right now. Love Forte. 

Pats +1.5 over Jets, 31-21

-Two things I have held as truths: The Pats don’t lose two in a row, the Pats don’t lose after byes. Well, both happened in the past few weeks. So either it is really over and the ride has stopped here, or they regroup and start a new set of records. The Pats just can’t lose three in a row. A month ago if you had told me the Pats would be the team desperate for this game, I would have starred at you so hard it would have hurt. But they are. And I think that they take it.

Packers -13.5 over Vikings, 31-14

-Yeah….no.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-4

By Spread: 8-3

Record this year:

Straight Up: 65-29

By Spread: 52-43

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 321-162
By Spread: 261-221

BLISS

NFL 2011 Week 9 Predictions

Much better week last week, even with short rest on my part. Things are getting clearer.

Week 9 Picks: 

Cowboys -11.5 over Seahawks, 30-13

-This is a lot of points but is the opportunity the Cowboys need to get right. The aerial offense should be all set after this game.

Falcons -6.5 over Colts, 24-7

-This is a game where the Falcons go up quickly and play grind it out offense with a zone defense for the rest of the game. The Colts are just terrible.

Chiefs -4 over Dolphins, 21-10

-I cannot believe the Chiefs are going to be 6-3 after next week. Too bad their schedule is horrid after that.

Saints -8.5 over Bucs, 34-24

-Bucs have a lot of minor injuries to people like Freeman, Blount, and McCoy that may allow them to play but won’t let them be at 100%. It is in New Orleans, and the Saints won’t allow their offense to be shut down like that two weeks in a row.

49ers -3.5 over ‘Skins, 21-6

-John Beck is bad. No Santana Moss, who knows who is running the ball, and even Fred Davis is injured. 49ers aren’t explosive but this is the best team matchup for them to dominate a game.

Texans -10.5 over Browns, 24-10

-The Browns are seemingly great against the pass, but they haven’t played anyone (Fantasy Focus Podcast today mentioned the best QB they have faced is Matt Hasselbeck), and the Texans will do a ton of damage via the run and short passing game. Haden will be wasted without Andre out there. Hillis being injured, the Texans revving up, this could be ugly to watch.

Giants +9.5 over Patriots, 34-38

-Pats win but Giants cover an excessively large line. I will not be watching any pregame prep and the words “Tyree”, “helmet”, or “perfect season” shall not be mentioned in my presence. Neither team can cover receivers (Giants due to injury, Patriots due to…scheming? Lack of talent?), neither can run the ball (Giants due to injury, Patriots due to….schedming? Lack of talent?). Aerial shootout it is!

Raiders -7.5 over Broncos, 24-10

-When Carson Palmer is by far and away the best QB in the game, you have a problem. Do you realize in the part of the game last week that mattered last week Tebow was 8-23 for 50 yards? That is so pathetic it is amazing. Brady Quinn! Brady Quinn!

Chargers +7.5 over Packers, 33-31

-Tale of two teams:

The Chargers’ season can go two ways. They can self destruct. Or they can shift into November mode and run off 8 victories.

The Packer season can continue to role on to the perfect tune. Or, they can succumb to the bye week curse and have 1 or 2 let downs on the way to a deep playoff run. The injuries in the secondary have to affect them sometime.

-So, I see this as the game where at least a team covers and stays close, and I think the Chargers need this victory so much more.

Ravens +3.5 over Steelers, 21-20

-I know it is in Pittsburgh but the Ravens just match up so well on paper. Ray Rice willing them to another victory over Pittsburgh puts them well into the driver’s seat for the division and probably the best team in the AFC. At the very least, take the points here.

Bears +7.5 over Eagles, 24-23

-Eagles played so well last week but this is the perfect team to run into them. Out of all the teams the Packers have played in their last 16 games, the Bears have given them the most trouble because of how tough they play and their focus on running the ball and attacking LBs with their pass catching RBs. The same matchup issues exist with the Eagles and Bears. The Bears are also motivated because in all likelihood this is a competition for a Wildcard Spot.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-3

By Spread: 7-4

Record this year:

Straight Up: 65-29

By Spread: 52-43

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 321-162
By Spread: 261-221

BLISS