NFL 2012 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Weekend

I went 1-3 heads up and 3-1 against the spread last week. Read that again, and tell me it doesn’t mean I have a real problem in how I am starting to see things. That doesn’t even make sense. I’ll take it, but still. Jeez.

Only two games this week, and only 3 left in the season. Both should be good though, and nicely feature opposing styles of play. For things looking toward the future, right now the AFC is -2.5 over the NFC in the Superbowl. Just saying. Speculating, you could say. 

NFC Title Game – Falcons +5.5 over Niners, 24-22

-The Niners are probably better. I’ll admit that I’m mostly doing this for the points, because in a hotly contested NFC title game, 5.5 is just too much to ignore. But Atlanta does have quite a few things going for them. SF has to travel East, Atlanta is so good at home, and the Niners do have a QB that has fewer than 10 starts EVER going against a solid vet off his breakthrough playoff win. Matt Ryan is actually in a very similar place to where Peyton was in 2006, when he finally advanced to the Superbowl.

The Seahawks nearly beat the Falcons, and I fully believe Seattle is better than SF (as evidenced by the beatdown served by the ‘Hawks a few weeks ago). So yeah, I’m rolling with Atlanta here. And the biggest reasons why are: A. Justin Smith still isn’t healthy and B. Seattle could cover Roddy and Julio for the most part and still couldn’t win, but SF won’t even come close. Gonzalez is neutralized, but the receivers won’t be and Atlanta (gulp) goes to the Superbowl.

AFC Title Game – Ravens +9.5 over Pats, 27-31

-Calm down, all my NE friends. It is just a cover. These teams play it way too close most times to lay 9.5 with any confidence. The Patriots are by far the healthier team (they are missing Gronk sure, but I think that Ravens missing Webb and having Yanda, Lewis, Suggs, and Ellerbe slowed by injuries are in worse shape). The Pats are at home having played one game versus a non physical foe. The Ravens haven’t had a break, and played two playoffs games to get here including a double OT freezing cold game in Denver then flying to Foxboro. Much respect to the Ravens, and I am giving them a cover here, but I just don’t see Brady losing this game.

It is simple. The Pats beat the Ravens (barely) last year in the playoffs. The Pats are better now (because of Talib, Hightower, Chandler Jones, and Dennard). The Ravens are about the same, I guess, just minus Webb and Ray Rice 2012 seems about 95% of Ray Rice 2011. The Ravens beat NE (barely) 4 months ago but we are a better team now due to experience for the younger players, while the Ravens have been on a downward turn. And remember, Brady, the winningest QB in playoff history, at home, where he is dominant. Yup, close win but Ravens cover. And no one is allowed to say “Bernard Karmell Pollard”.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-3

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-80

By Spread: 115-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 533-277
By Spread: 440-376

NFL 2012 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

And there goes my annual quest to go 11-0 in the playoffs. Some day, maybe.

The Divisional Round is always my favorite. We get to see 8 great, non pretender teams square off almost every year without fail. While the Conference Title Game weekend produces better matchups, there are only two games to watch. This weekend, we still get the full slate of four games. And occasionally in the Divisional round, we get to see some juggernaught tripped up by just a little too much rest and relaxation or even a false sense of security. 

Week 19: Divisional Playoffs

Ravens +10.5 over Broncos, 22-28
-As much as I would love it, I just cannot predict the upset. Too much would have to go right for the Ravens and wrong for the Broncos. If Webb was healthy, that would make a huge difference. But, I do think that the Ravens put up a good fight and are able to keep it close. Ray Rice should be ready to go off after his miscues last week. Maybe the Broncos get rusty/lethargic/lulled into a false sense of security after their 10 game winning streak, but I just don’t think so. Von Miller could have a big day here, and I know Demaryius Thomas does.

Packers +3.5 over Niners, 31-22
-I know, I know, this result flipped the other way in week 1 of the regular season. Guess what? THAT WAS 19 WEEKS/5 MONTHS AGO. These are totally different teams. Randall Cobb has been unleashed, Cedric Benson/Alex Green/Jeff Saturday aren’t involved, and the Packers now know not to force the ball to Finley (well, kinda). The Niners are also a very different team, with a different quarterback, an emerged Michael Crabtree, and a concussed Vernon Davis. However, the biggest difference is the injured Justin Smith. He means so much to that team from a leadership standpoint and a schematic standpoint that his injury by itself makes me flip my prediction for this game. Ironically, the SF-NE game that I attended sold me that A. SF was the best team in the league and B. It immediately dropped from being that because of Justin Smith’s injury. He enables clean tackles for Patrick Willis and Bowman, and more importantly allows Aldon Smith to tee off on the quarterback through holds, stunts, and twists. Finally, Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs versus Colin K? Yeah, sign me up for about a 10 point Pack win.

Seahawks +3 over Falcons, 24-18

-By the way, the Falcons get to 18 by a touchdown, 3 field goals, and 1 safety. It seems right that they would get a safety, since that is all they got last year in the playoffs. I don’t believe in the Falcons in the post season. Not one bit. There is a limited but significant track record at this point saying that they are not an elite level team. The truth is, even if they had gone 3-5 in the playoffs under Matt Ryan so far instead of being winless, I’d still pick Seattle. Their team is just set up so well to win. Atlanta can really only throw the ball at an elite level. And Seattle is perhaps the only team that can take both Roddy and Julio out with their elite corners. Lynch is going to eat that defense up. Seattle wins outright, and while it won’t be Alabama – Notre Dame, I think the ‘Hawks show clear physical dominance over the Falcons.

Pats -9.5 over Texans, 34-17

-I watched that Bengals-Texans game and cheered. Not because the Texans won, no; I wanted the Bengals to win. But I cheered because the Texans won having 7 sustained drives but scored only 1 touchdown and 4 field goals. They do anything similar versus NE, show any of that pathetic level of aggression, and they will lose badly to the Pats in Foxboro. Second, we just saw this game a month ago, same place, same teams. The Pats won easily, and while they had some weird fluke good luck plays, those are counteracted by the fact that they will now get Gronk back. Third, Tom Brady in the playoffs, 16-6 all time. With one more win, he passes Montana for most all time. They aren’t losing this game.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 2-2

Record this year:

Straight Up: 143-77

By Spread: 112-102

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 532-274
By Spread: 437-375

NFL 2012 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Time for the annual quest to go 11-0 in the playoff picks. Good luck everyone.

Power Tiers:

Super Bowl Probables: Green Bay and Denver. Nothing changed there.

Championship Level: San Francisco and New England. Both shaky but it really seems they will be there in the end.

In Contention: Atlanta and Seattle. For different reasons, don’t know if they will be there in the end.

Week 18: Wild Card Weekend

Bengals +4.5 over Houston, 23-19

-Calling the pure upset. Houston is in free fall, its star RB looks worn out and may have a heart problem, and its QB is playing horribly right now. It wouldn’t surprise me if I found out that Matt Schaub was hiding a major arm injury, because he clearly isn’t the same guy. AJ Green is going to torch the Texans. I trust in him as a top 5 game changer at his position. Like Calvin, AJ can bust a game open even if the QB isn't on. But Geno Atkins especially makes me scared to go against the Bengals here. I think he dominates as he has done all season. Finally this is revenge for the Bengals. They still feel like they could have won last year versus TJ freaking Yates, and everything is setup for them to finally do so now.

Colts +6.5 over Ravens, 24-19

-I really believe that the Colts will upset the Ravens this weekend. I predicted it weeks ago. I have a friend that can attest to this fact. And for those claiming Chuckstrong is counteracted by Ray Lewis's return/retirement news, stop. Lewis already has his announcing gig lined up, clearly has his mind elsewhere now. He isn't that good anymore anyways. The Colts are riding high and coming in with good vibes from their win over the Texans, a game they didn’t need and the Texans did. The Ravens will have trouble with Wayne and even Ballard. While it is true Flacco tends to get better in the playoffs, his general inconsistency scares me. And somehow, despite Ray Rice having the potential to run all over Indy, I think he gets a strong lack of carries. BAL key guard Yanda either won’t play or will be playing hurt. Luck is really good and has that special something, kind of Big Ben esch, and I think they move on. So ends an era from Raven football.

Packers -7.5 over Vikings, 37-20

-I know the purple men from northern Europe just won this matchup last week, but that was different. The Viks were at home, and the Pack were playing for seeding, not their playoff lives. Big difference. Last week featured both a strong multi TD game from Rodgers and a 200 yard game from Peterson with no big runs. Guess which situation I find more replicable? Packers are also getting Woodson and Cobb back, and will unleash Matthews full force. Finally, it is pretty much impossible for Tramon Williams to be that bad again. However, it is fully possible for Christian Ponder to be much much worse than he was. Green Bay is my pick to go to the Super Bowl from NFC, and nothing in this game is going to distract me from that.

Seahawks -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 26-17

-It should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I am taking the Seahawks over the Ethnic Slurs. In a battle of rookie quarterbacks with a style I don't particularly like, I will take the quiet inconsistent leadership of Russell Wilson over the hobbled and overly simplified offense of RG3. However, the truth is the difference in this matchup will probably come mostly come from the vast disparity in their defensive secondaries. Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner should easily dominate their matchups and cause Griffin to have the biggest problems in his young career.  On the other side however, the WAS defense, held together by sticks, glue, and strong play calling, will finally be exposed for its lack of talent. This is mainly due to injury and isn’t their fault, but is just the truth. It will not matter that Seattle is on the road.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-4

By Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight Up: 141-75

By Spread: 110-100

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 530-272
By Spread: 435-373