NFL 2013 Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

Seahawks +3 over Broncos, 37-14

-The Broncos are wearing orange for the Super Bowl. They are 0-3 in Super Bowls in that outfit. The Seahawks are 2-0 this year in their white top, navy blue bottom road outfits, both times winning by 23 points exactly.

So, obviously the 'Hawks are winning by 23 points, and all is right with the world. Okay, so it will probably be more complicated by that.

Here is the deal: the best comp to this game is the 2002-2003 title game. Defensive monsters Tampa Bay plays Rich Gannon’s cerebral offense and Oakland. Tampa had a really athletic, creatively schemed defense. Rich Gannon was an aging quarterback, considered an offensive genius. He had some limited physical abilities, but overall used his mind and knowledge of schemes to great effect. Denver's receivers are really young while Oakland's were really seasoned, but overall the comparison works. And of course, Tampa Bay romped that Super Bowl with numerous picks and generally causing mayhem with Gannon's timing and productivity. 

Here’s a great stat: there have been 7 teams to set the record for most points in season. All 7 failed to win the title. 2007 Patriots, 1998 Vikings, so many other high scoring teams. Perhaps it is because those teams play 3 games in 5 weeks before the big game and get out of rhythm. Maybe other teams figure out how to better scheme for them. Maybe it is just hard to maintain that pace.

The best player on the field is Manning, it is pretty hard to debate that. The next best 6 players are from Seattle. Sherman, Earl Thomas, Lynch, Bennett, Chancellor, Wilson. Seattle is stacked on each line. They are healthy, getting their only injured player (Harvin) back, reinforcing their only true weakness, WR. WR is the only place Seattle is completely outclassed by Denver, and defending WRs is coincidentally Seattle’s specialty.

Denver takes advantage of matchups. D. Thomas is an athletic freak, but Sherman can stay with him. Decker takes advantage of unorganized second CBs or FSs, but Seattle will stay disciplined with him. Welker won’t find any friendly lanes inside, and the corners and safeties can get to him outside on those rub routes. Julius Thomas kills many matchups like Gronk and Graham do, but we’ve already seen what Seattle does to athletic TEs. Jimmy Graham was barely existent in the SEA-NO game. Both safeties and most of their LBs can detach into coverage and take Julius out of play. Seattle is about to make Denver’s advantage to being a normal matchup at most. And if Seattle has to win this game by stopping Knowshon Moreno, it will take that path willingly.

Denver’s only real major advantage besides QB seems to be on the interior of the defensive line. They match up well against Seattle’s interior line and Knighton should dominate there. But otherwise, the matchups predict a draw or Seattle victory.

The weather either doesn’t affect the game at all, or favors Seattle. There isn’t really a scenario where Denver benefits from the conditions unless it was 70 and sunny with no wind. Believe me, I lived in New York City for 4 years: it won't be 70 and sunny with no wind in February. 

Seattle’s DVOA is so far and away superior to Denver’s, it really puts this game into context. Seattle’s total was 40.1% to Denver’s 32.8%. Denver wins on offense 33.7%to 9.4%, but gets creamed on Defense and Special Teams (25.8% to .2% and 4.8% to -1.1%). And Denver’s special teams regresses some from its already negative value because Prater’s advantage home/road disappears here.

So really, considering the injuries on the Denver O-Line and their shoddy secondary (especially with Harvin returning), and the Seattle advantage on Special Teams, I expect this to be a rout. The 3 points is a free play, and really the +125/+130 is a gift. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-1

By Spread: 1-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 124-72
By Spread: 100-97

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 663-355
By Spread: 537-470

NFL 2013 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Round

Pats +5 over Broncos, 28-24

-This is purely a function of the points. I originally saw this at 6.5, but obviously people bet that down as quickly as possible. One thing I know for sure…ignore the game they played 8 weeks ago. Gronk, Chris Harris, Von Miller, and quite a few others players aren’t playing now. John Fox, Champ, Blount, and so many others ARE now playing as key cogs and weren’t then.

I was stunned when looking at FootballOutsiders this week though. They have the Pats as a 46% chance to win this game, which is a crazy high number. I thought it was going to be a 60-40 split at best. But the Week 19 DVOA doesn’t lie. NE actually ranks above DEN right now in DVOA, 31.5 to 27.2. A huge advantage is special teams, but they are competent in all three areas.

Look at how the offenses line up. As much as the Pats are beat up on offense, they are playing a strings and spit defense in Denver, who just lost their best corner. The all time scoring leading Denver offense (which barely put up 24 last week) is playing a team with its 3 really good corners back playing together. NE can hold this together, fully execute San Diego’s plan of holding the ball and pushing it down Denver’s throat. Brady over Manning, one more time please. You know, until they get trampled in the Super Bowl by….

Seahawks -3 over Niners, 17-9

-This will probably be a painful, insanely unwatchable game. I think Colin Kaep self destructs. Both GB and CAR had opportunities to make him do so, but couldn’t. This Seattle defense will not allow easy passing. What gets me really ticked is that the SF passing game is really good when throwing to Boldin, Crabtree, or Davis. But that’s it. Literally no one else can do anything. They caught all of the SF touchdowns this year, and Crabtree only had 1! Seattle just won’t allow that kind of focus on a few guys, will take 2 away (probably Sherman-Crabtree, Earl Thomas-Davis, and three guys on Boldin then), and make the Niners sputter here. And I have a feeling Russell Wilson finds the magic here again.

SF is a really healthy advanced stat team, with the best remaining special teams (8.9) and a strong defense (-5.2). But FootballOutsiders makes my case for me: Seattle’s defense is a whopping -29.1. That blows Arizona’s -18.9 out of the water for second place, and they are a far distance from third. I had Seattle winning the whole thing in August, and I am staying on that train. I have to think the NFC is winning regardless though.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 2-1

Record this year:
Straight Up: 123-71
By Spread: 99-96

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 662-354
By Spread: 536-469

NFL 2013 Week 19 Predictions: Divisional Round

Saints +8 over Seahawks, 20-24

-Too many points, but a probable Seahawks victory. They did this dance last month, and this isn’t one of those games where the Saints learn from the first and do it differently. They just got dominated. And probably will be again, but have a slightly closer result. The rain keeps the scoring down a bit.

Colts +7.5 over Patriots, 24-31

-This is just way too many points. Trying to overcome my regional bias, I have a sneaking suspicion that the Colts win this game. But definitely, I am taking the 7.5. The Pats’ argument is constructed of the fact that they are 6-1 coming off the bye at home, and the only loss was to that wonky 2009 Jets team. The Colts will not be playing that style, and Belichick can scheme around even the Colts’ explosiveness. Though, Adam Vin is involved and that makes me really nervous.

49ers pk over Panthers, 16-13

-The 49ers were the original. The Panthers are a new fangled remix. Sometimes that’s good. But this is more of a Jordan-Kobe relationship. And while Kobe’s good, he ain’t Jordan. Kobe could get him sometimes in 1:1, but I think the Niners still get this one.

Chargers +10 over Broncos, 24-23

-I just…I don’t know…I want it to be…the time of possession stat….wind…Manning is under .500 in the playoffs….someone is getting upset this weekend….I don’t even know anymore.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 2-2

By Spread: 1-3

Record this year:
Straight Up: 120-70
By Spread: 97-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 659-353
By Spread: 534-468

NFL 2013 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Colts -2.5 over Chiefs, 21-17

-The Colts are getting right at the correct time. FootballOutsiders has them at the lowest odds of winning the whole thing. While I get why the numbers support that, and that there is little chance of the Colts advancing past the title game round, I think this is a solid bet right now. The Colts have the Ravens ‘13/Packers ‘11 mojo of a strong start, dropping off toward the end of the year, young QB breaking into the elite, and looking good at the very end of the regular season. The Chiefs are going the wrong way, are getting out schemed, and have some injury concerns. In the playoffs, it often comes down to the team with the better QB so often, and the Colts are winning that battle.

Saints +2.5 over Eagles, 27-24

-I know, I know. The Saints aren’t any good outdoors/on the road. Well, we have no idea how these Eagles will be in the playoffs at all, and we know Brees and co. can win a Superbowl. Again, I am taking the better QB, this one in a little more of a shootout. If the Eagles get a lead though, this is actually probably over early because they will run it all over the Saints. But, I think Brees gets the Saints ahead and stays there.

Bengals -7 over Chargers, 33-23

-This is the game I feel most comfortable about. The Chargers are the second lowest projected FO Super Bowl team and that I can agree with. I picked the Bengals to make the Superbowl, and still feel okay about that despite the Hall and Adkins injuries. Green and Gio both go off in a big Cincy win. One year too early for the Chargers, who will draft heavily on defense and develop next year.

Packers +2.5 over Niners, 24-16

-This will be the third time in a 365 day span these two teams have played, a rarity for non division opponents. They know each other well, and are in very different spots than the first time. I think this is the matchup where the Packers flip the script. When they met last January, the Packers were the established offense and the Niners the upstarts who were newly developing an offense around a QB who only had a few starts. Now, the Niners have been rolling (successfully?) with their offense for a year plus, while the Packers were a pass team that became a run team with a different QB and now have gotten their All-Pro QB back for good. And if at any point, the Packers have learned how to stop Colin K and that rushing offense, now would be the time to implement it. Here is a thought: stop Davis and Boldin. They caught 20 of Kaep’s 21 TDs this year. That limited offense, with a think an almost worn out Frank Gore, gives the Packers the victory. And if Aaron Rodgers is allowed to get hot, watch out NFC.


As for the overall picture, the best prediction for the Superbowl is the boring one: Seattle over Denver. I really don't see anyone else besides maybe the Packers winning the NFC. The AFC is coming down to the Broncos, Pats, and maybe the Bengals. I like the Pats' chances, but the injuries are probably too much. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 10-2

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:
Straight Up: 118-68
By Spread: 96-92

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 657-351
By Spread: 533-465