Super Bowl Preview
It had to be in Indy.
Peyton Manning’s little brother and his biggest rival are
meeting in his city while he is on the verge of losing his job. Tom Brady is
using Peyton Manning’s locker. That’s WEIRD. But perhaps meant to be.
Everybody loves stats this week, so let's dig some out:
Neither defense is good, but actually the Pats allowed 21.3
points per game in the regular season to opponents while the Giants allowed 25.
Actually, the Giants are one of 4 teams all time to make the Super Bowl and
only outscore opponents by less than 50 points total for the year. In the post
season the Pats have allowed 15 points a game and the Giants 13, though the
Falcons and Broncos games almost shouldn’t count. Both teams are great examples
of teams that should be judged by PPG and not yards…because you know, points
are what actually count.
Both QBs threw for over 4900 yards this year, one with 3 great WRs the other with 2 awesome TEs and 1 awesome WR. So, that is kind of offsetting. One QB has a reputation for a 2 minute drill and 4th quarter coolness throughout his career. The other has the 4th quarter TD record for a single season and has played very well in the last few weeks, a prerequisite for winning in the playoffs. Both teams have a number of backs who run hard (Jacobs, BJGE), change the pace (Woodhead, Bradshaw), and bring youth into the game (Ridley, Ware). No star RBs, no top 10 team rank in rushing, but it works over time.
The Giants still have a “power run team” reputation, but
actually they were bottom 10 in the league in rushing. The Pats have a
reputation for being a dink and dunk offense but actually led the league in
plays of 20 or more.
Both teams have secondaries that need help, the Pats a little more so than Giants. The Pats have a good LB group and okay DL. The Giants are the complete opposite with that awesome DL and a hurting LB crew. This is a matched game in a lot of ways. I like the Pats depth and special teams a little more but the Giants clearly have more play makers and true stars (about 8-5 in star power depending upon how you count them).
Brady and the Pats very rarely play two bad games in a row or two bad games versus the same team. This is encouraging for their chances as both scenarios are in place.
Yes, the Giants are on a great postseason run, but actually statistically the Pats are having a better postseason. See Footballoutsiders for stats, but they have a slight edge. Yes, the Giants are running hot...but the Pats haven't lost for two months. In that time I remember the Giants losing to the Redskins, so it bears mentioning as does the low quality of some of the Pats wins in that time.
The Giants are beloved by the public. They won this matchup in the regular season, in Foxboro. They defeated legit teams in SF and GB and a fraud team in ATL. The Pats conquered a legit team in BAL and a BAD DEN team. As much as the Pats got lucky vs. BAL, the Giants got lucky versus SF.
So why are the Pats favored? Maybe because they were
more consistent all season? Because they fare so well in rematches? Because
they had a bye in round 1 and are theoretically healthier? 3 SBs versus 1? I
actually have no idea why the Pats are favored, can't begin to legitimize it. I
agree this should be a pick or maybe even Giants by 1.5.
But, despite all this, I think the Pats -3 will win. Outright. Cover even. 33-27 sounds right. One team will lead by 10 points at SOME point, but in the end it will be close. Why? Well, see, I think they win because Bill Belichick is relaxed.
Some might break this game down by the star players, the health of Gronk, the pathetic nature of both secondaries but especially the Pats', the revenge factor, the defensive line or even luck. But, I cannot stop looking at a Bill Belichick that is smiling, laughing on media day, telling jokes. He normally would utter 5 word answers to questions. Normally, you'd have to pull him out of the film cave on SB Sunday, throw a new hoodie on him, and point him onto the field while handing him the headset and putting a red flag in his sock. This Bill is relaxed, telling stories, in a suit, in the city two days before his opponents flew in. He's chillin'. I think he knows something. Maybe he thinks the Giants are due for a stinker, like their Washington or Seattle games. Or he thinks the Pats can’t possibly play worse than last week, especially Brady.
However, I just think he found IT. Whatever IT is. Something to guarantee him three picks. Maybe he unearthed a trio of Ty Law clones to throw onto the Giants WRs. Maybe he found out that if you run deep routes past Deon Grant you score every time (wait, we all knew that). Whatever IT is, I think old Bill found it. And the Pats, as they often do, will win because of IT. Maybe Brady will throw some crazy array of screens and deep slants, or they are going to run 40 times and surprise us all. Neither would surprise me at all. And all else being even, IT being found or not, Brady in the playoffs is still someone I trust.
So the Pats win, and cover. We have tons of time to discuss Brady's legacy with 4 rings or Bill's case as Best Coach Ever. All because Bill is relaxed.
Or, you know, Bill could know he is lucky to be here and they are going to get killed so he's having fun because it doesn’t matter. Possibility, legit possibility.
But, despite all this, I think the Pats -3 will win. Outright. Cover even. 33-27 sounds right. One team will lead by 10 points at SOME point, but in the end it will be close. Why? Well, see, I think they win because Bill Belichick is relaxed.
Some might break this game down by the star players, the health of Gronk, the pathetic nature of both secondaries but especially the Pats', the revenge factor, the defensive line or even luck. But, I cannot stop looking at a Bill Belichick that is smiling, laughing on media day, telling jokes. He normally would utter 5 word answers to questions. Normally, you'd have to pull him out of the film cave on SB Sunday, throw a new hoodie on him, and point him onto the field while handing him the headset and putting a red flag in his sock. This Bill is relaxed, telling stories, in a suit, in the city two days before his opponents flew in. He's chillin'. I think he knows something. Maybe he thinks the Giants are due for a stinker, like their Washington or Seattle games. Or he thinks the Pats can’t possibly play worse than last week, especially Brady.
However, I just think he found IT. Whatever IT is. Something to guarantee him three picks. Maybe he unearthed a trio of Ty Law clones to throw onto the Giants WRs. Maybe he found out that if you run deep routes past Deon Grant you score every time (wait, we all knew that). Whatever IT is, I think old Bill found it. And the Pats, as they often do, will win because of IT. Maybe Brady will throw some crazy array of screens and deep slants, or they are going to run 40 times and surprise us all. Neither would surprise me at all. And all else being even, IT being found or not, Brady in the playoffs is still someone I trust.
So the Pats win, and cover. We have tons of time to discuss Brady's legacy with 4 rings or Bill's case as Best Coach Ever. All because Bill is relaxed.
Or, you know, Bill could know he is lucky to be here and they are going to get killed so he's having fun because it doesn’t matter. Possibility, legit possibility.
Record last week:
Straight Up: 1-1
By Spread: 0-2
Record this year:
Straight Up: 144-63
By Spread: 111-94
Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 389-196
By Spread: 320-272
Straight Up: 389-196
By Spread: 320-272
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+Here are some of the fun props I have seen listed
everywhere, if you are interested.
Wes
Welker over 7 catches and 82 yards
-He went over these totals in the regular season game, the SB 4 years ago, and Gronk being limited may mean more targets anyways.
Brady over 320 yards
-If they win, it is likely because Brady played amazing. If they lose, Brady will throw to get back from behind.
Eli over .5 INTs
-Eli should have been picked 3 times last week. Rust+Volume equals at least one pick.
Deion Branch over 2.5 receptions
-Last time the Pats won a SB, he was the MVP. Not that that'll happen again, but 3 catches with a limited Gronk? Sure.
Manningham over 2.5 receptions
-Julian Edelman. Yeah, I have nothing else to say.
Victor Cruz over 5.5 receptions
-I have no idea how the Pats cover him.
Hakeem Nicks under 6 receptions and 85 yards
-Here, I think the Pats double team the Giant and limit his impact. Plus, he has an underpublicized shoulder issue. I think Patrick Chung leans on him.
Patriots under 5.5 penalties
-They are such a disciplined team and emphasize possession and limiting negative plays.
Giants will receive opening kickoff
-If the Pats win, they'll defer to get the ball after the half. If the Giants win, they'll take the ball to start fast. So either way...
Giants over 2.5 sacks
-I mean, 2 guaranteed from Tuck/Osi/JPP, at least one more from someone else. Easy pick.
Pats over 22.5 first downs
-See the Brady argument for yards.
Also, I have the over on 1 minute 34 seconds on the Nat'l Anthem, over on Jim Irsay being mentioned 1.5 times, over on Robert Kraft being shown 3.5 times, and over on 117 million viewers.
Good luck everyone.
-He went over these totals in the regular season game, the SB 4 years ago, and Gronk being limited may mean more targets anyways.
Brady over 320 yards
-If they win, it is likely because Brady played amazing. If they lose, Brady will throw to get back from behind.
Eli over .5 INTs
-Eli should have been picked 3 times last week. Rust+Volume equals at least one pick.
Deion Branch over 2.5 receptions
-Last time the Pats won a SB, he was the MVP. Not that that'll happen again, but 3 catches with a limited Gronk? Sure.
Manningham over 2.5 receptions
-Julian Edelman. Yeah, I have nothing else to say.
Victor Cruz over 5.5 receptions
-I have no idea how the Pats cover him.
Hakeem Nicks under 6 receptions and 85 yards
-Here, I think the Pats double team the Giant and limit his impact. Plus, he has an underpublicized shoulder issue. I think Patrick Chung leans on him.
Patriots under 5.5 penalties
-They are such a disciplined team and emphasize possession and limiting negative plays.
Giants will receive opening kickoff
-If the Pats win, they'll defer to get the ball after the half. If the Giants win, they'll take the ball to start fast. So either way...
Giants over 2.5 sacks
-I mean, 2 guaranteed from Tuck/Osi/JPP, at least one more from someone else. Easy pick.
Pats over 22.5 first downs
-See the Brady argument for yards.
Also, I have the over on 1 minute 34 seconds on the Nat'l Anthem, over on Jim Irsay being mentioned 1.5 times, over on Robert Kraft being shown 3.5 times, and over on 117 million viewers.
Good luck everyone.
MIKE
