NFL 2016 Week 20 Prediction

Week 20 Predictions:

Packers +5.5 over Falcons, 30-33

-I am so conflicted about this game as a pure pick. Strangely, I feel better about taking the points overall than the over or the true winner. On paper the Falcons should win this. They are healthier, more talented, at home, and had a better overall season. I am really afraid to pick against Aaron Rodgers. We are somewhere around Jedi Grand Master at this point with him, so the cover pick is a hedge. I also picked NE-GB Super Bowl, so it hard against just picking that game here to come full circle. But Atlanta, as upstart as they are, is a cleaner overall play to win straight up. This should be an awesome game, and a track meet.

Pats -5.5 over Steelers, 34-26

-I am throwing out their first match this year as it was early in the Brady reunion tour and Ben didn’t play. The Pats clearly had the better season, have been more even throughout, and have the better defense and a more even offense. I trust the Pats special teams more. The Pats are coming off an uneasy game, while the Steelers are riding a long win streak. However, the Pats were similarly coming off a long streak and shook off some rust last week as well as committed about as many errors as one can in one game. Tipped picks, fumble on kickoff, two penalties that extend opponent’s drives that end in points. There is no way that replicates going forward. The Pats are 16-3 at home in the playoffs in this era, they are 7-2 versus Pittsburgh in this era, they have the better defense and the better QB. Ben throws up a few bad balls each week and will do so again. Solid Pats win.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 150-93

By Spread: 127-114

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1094-609
By Spread: 901-787

NFL 2016 Week 19 Predictions

Week 19 Predictions:

Falcons -5 over Seahawks, 34-17

-Seattle has managed to have a productive season, get their wins and first round victory over lesser teams. It ends now. Earl Thomas’ absence hurts, it’s just that the teams they have faced haven’t been able to fully exploit it. The Falcons can and will. They should put up crazy passing stats and use spread back formations effectively. Seattle can score a little, but won’t be able to press and Wilson will make mistakes if behind. Falcons are a high confidence play here.

Pats -15.5 over Texans, 30-10

-I’m nervous about this line being so large. The Pats are 13-0 favored by more than 2 touchdowns in this era, but only 7-6 covering those games. However, in the playoffs there is a cutdown on cheap touchdowns late when a good team plays a bad one. I’m going to cautiously take the Pats to have a true blowout, especially with a bad young QB on the road. Brady will probably manage rather than explode, but Houston just can’t score productively on this team. My other favorite stat is that the Pats are 14-0 in games with Dion Lewis. He’s playing, so I guess we are good.

Packers +4.5 over Cowboys, 31-27

-I know. The Cowboys are better on paper, far healthier, and were dominant all year. They should be able to run all over the Packers. However, I am terrified to go FOR a team that has two rookies in their most vital positions. Zeke has a ton of carries on his body. And I am terrified to pick AGAINST Aaron Rodgers at this point. He’s playing a Jedi mind trick each week. Packers continue their roll and upset the #1 seed.

Chiefs -1.5 over Steelers, 24-20

-Okay, okay. I hear the complaints already. I do have a personal bias against the Steelers and need to take that out. Here is my reasoning:

          a. Ben on the road last 16 games: 14 TDs, 17 INTs

          b. Ben at home last 16 games: 36 TDs, 12 INTs

          c. This game is on the road

          d. Andy Reid is 19-2 coming off a bye, 3-0 in the playoffs

So that’s really where I started, and nothing else I see makes me think this isn’t going to finish in a Chiefs win more times than not. So, I am going with the Chiefs to win and cover. And for those espousing the “take the better QB” philosophy, over their last 5 playoffs games spanning 2011-present:

a.     QB1 is 2-3, 1429 yards, 5 TDs, 5 INTs

b.     QB2 is 2-3, 1507 yards, 13 TDs, 1 INT

QB 1 is Ben, QB2 is Alex Smith. I get it though, Ben is better overall and has had a better career. But for about 6 years now, and consistently on the road, Alex Smith has been better in the playoffs with lesser weapons and schemes. I’m taking the Chiefs.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 4-0

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 147-92

By Spread: 124-113

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1091-608
By Spread: 898-786

NFL 2016 Week 18 Predictions

Week 18 Predictions:

Hello friends. It has been an up and down season for me. I honestly considered not continuing this prediction column each week because of how busy my life has become, especially as I am back in school pursuing my doctoral degree. However, I have found this simple little space for predictions allows me to flex my writing muscles a little and lets me get out the snark somewhere other than my academic work. That’s probably better for all involved. I wish my results were more steady (I’ll take the last 60% of the season but not so much the first 40%), but it has been and helps center my football thoughts and determinations before they are applied elsewhere.

Another major reason I continued the column is that one of my major life goals is to find a way to finish a post season having picked it perfectly. 11 games up, 11 down, that’s the goal. Without the regular season to get me there, I wouldn’t feel right doing just the playoffs. So, here I am, staring at my goals. 11 games left in this season! Standing in my way of course, is this horrid set of round 1 matchups. I stared at a lot of these for far too long. Let’s go.

Texans -3.5 over Raiders, 20-10

-Okay, first, I have loved the Raiders all year. Seriously, go look, I’ll wait. I also really like Connor Cook. Really, I loved him in college in the past few years and had some financial confidence in him pushing MSU to some solid finishes and surprising wins. But I just can’t pick a rookie making his first ever start on the road in the playoffs versus a competent defense. Even with Brock, the Texans are fundamentally sound, will pound the hell out of the Raiders defense, and go after Cook. Texans, unfortunately, advance to the next round behind a big game from Lamar Miller, but you should take the under.

Seahawks -8 over Lions, 24-13

-On one hand, the Seahawks have been 30^th against the pass since Earl Thomas got hurt. That’s with folks like Colin K involved. This terrifies me, and this team won’t be getting to another NFC title game. However, I think it is enough for this week. Stafford hasn’t been the same since finger injuries occurred (go figure!). Seattle is still 7-1 at home, and has vets who have been here before. A running back named Zenner is intimately involved for Detroit. Detroit had to confirm a coach who is about to coach a playoff game who has a winning record over three years and a Super Bowl appearance with his last team will be back next year. Russell Wilson isn’t late 2015 Russell Wilson but he isn’t early 2016 Russell Wilson either. Seattle gets it done by 10, and go get plastered by Atlanta next week.

Dolphins +10 over Steelers, 20-23

Okay, first, not all 4 home teams can win. So, we can start there. Does this mean the Dolphins are the upset? I don’t know but someone has to do it. I think they have enough to keep it close. Did you know Pittsburgh ranks 10^th in offense (that’s way too low) and 10^th in defense (way too high)? Weird team, doesn’t match the optics or expectations. Fins also are a weird team to figure out. I think they can hit some deep ones here, know they need Ajayi to go off again and will feed him, and keep it close enough. Ben probably wins, but I won’t have investment in this game.

Packers -4.5 over Giants, 30-20

-The Giants took a day this week and went to party in South Beach. I mean, they didn’t start there, and aren’t playing the Fins later this week or something. New York to Miami to New York to Green Bay on a playoff week. I’m actually kind of disgusted. It’s like this a job for them, and they may not care as much as we irrationally do as fans! Justin Bieber was involved!

The Giants do have the exact right kind of defense to stop the Packers (red zone and 3^rd down efficiency). However, it’s Aaron Rodgers and he is back to just skinning people alive 9 seconds into a play that should have been over. If the Giants beat the Packers in Green Bay, I’ll officially be afraid of them. Until then, show it to me Eli. Beckham is going off here though for the record, even though I feel strongly about the Packers winning.

Record last week: 

Straight Up: 11-5

By Spread: 7-9

Record this year: 

Straight Up: 143-92

By Spread: 121-112

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 1087-608
By Spread: 895-785