2020 NFL Week 21 Predictions: Super Bowl Weekend
Bucs +3 over Chiefs, 27-24
I am honestly not entirely sure what to do with the game. I've looked at it from a lot of perspectives and tried to figure out how high my confidence is for the various things we can pick. Here are my favorites in order: Brady over 291 yards, game under 56.5 points, and Bucs +3 (3.5 if you can still get that).
In terms of game, I'd believe KC blowout, KC win close, and TB win close. I am heartened taking the Bucs by the result from Week 12. TB had no answers for Hill and he screamed all over the field for massive yardage and game defining plays. The Chiefs looked far the better team, it was in TB just like this is, and the Chiefs created so many problems for the Tampa game plan. And then they only won by 3.
Two things are true. The Chiefs are hot and cold. They haven't really run the ball well for 2 months. They wake up late, have miscues, and rely on Mahomes to bring them back. Also true: They are the best team on the planet at coming back, because of the most lethal passing attack we have ever seen. They have won all those games they were super close in, despite errors and lapses. They really only have been beaten by two people in the last three seasons in any game that mattered: Themselves and Tom Brady.
So here is the thought and hope at why Tampa can do this. Saying "Tom" is reductive and simplistic. It's a factor. And he knows his legacy has a piece here: 7 isn't a ton more than 6, even if it surpasses Jordan. It's more stopping Mahomes from his second, and making Mahomes 0-2 vs. Tom in the playoffs, which will make Mahomes' GOAT case much harder 20 years from now. Tampa can move the ball on offense fine anyways, and Tom will pile up yardage. I have no idea to whom, that's why I'm taking his yardage total and none of the individual receivers'. And Tampa can and should try to shorten the game, run the ball, tucker the defense out, and keep their defensive ends energetic and rested. But I'm actually more interested in the other side of the ball.
KC creates problems with Kelce and Hill. The other receivers aren't awesome, but they benefit from the attention elsewhere and because of their pure speed. TB is a good team to try to disarm Kelce and Hill. They failed terribly for a half to do that in Week 12. That lesson will help, and their full personnel will too. They have the LBs to try to cover Kelce. And they likely will use their young and fast safeties to cover Hill rather than leaving Davis on an island again (he also literally can't be worse). I foresee so much more bumping and jamming, and man coverage across the rest of the players. Tampa's ability to get pressure with 4 and use LBs to cover the middle gives them hope at winning.
Again this is a low confidence prediction. That's why I like the Brady over the most, and the under second (I like the under because Super Bowls are traditionally slow starting and scoring. Brady has scored 3 points in the first quarter of Super Bowls. All of them). Chiefs win this game 60% of the time or more. But at home (what a rare quirk), with the GOAT, in a weird year, and with offensive line injuries in KC, I will take the 3 free points and Tampa Bay. Good luck all, and see you next season.
Record Last Week:
Straight Up: 0-2
By Spread: 0-2
Record this Year:
Straight Up: 168-88
By Spread: 129-128
Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 1721-942
By Spread: 1406-1262
