NFL 2010 Week 8 Predictions

Hello everyone, 

This is a truly fun week. We have 6 teams on byes. All the home teams are favored. All the lines are small. There are some good games to watch. And the playoff intrigue really starts to pick up. Oh, and it is Halloween. Some guy named Moss is coming back to NE. He is bringing some dude named Favre.

Good luck!

My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Pittsburgh (1) – Things are getting murkier because NE, BAL, and PIT won but didn’t really win convincingly.

2. New England (2) – Out of the top 3, I actually like their week 7 the best because they won most convincingly, early in the game, and are still gelling.

3. Baltimore (3) – Giving Buffalo desperation points, the Ravens made a statement with a “we are the better freaking team and we are winning this game” comeback.While the getting down early is a bad sign, the coming back in such a determined way is a great one. I still think they will beat Pitt again, and would have beaten NE if they had been at home.

4. Indianapolis (4) – They didn’t lose.

5. New York Jets (5) – See number 4

6. Atlanta (7) – They win and move up, and are probably still the best team in the NFC. I mean, that isn’t saying much.

7. New York Giants (NR) – They have been impressive, and I would give them good odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. They have pass rush, good running game, and have a QB that has won it all.

8. Houston (NR) – We will see. I honestly had to rank someone, and I think they are really talented. However, they may lose their spot with a loss this week to Indy.

Fallen Out: New Orleans, Philadelphia

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Denver (NR) – That was terrible. And it was Oakland too.

30. San Francisco (NR) – Um, wow. Troy Smith anyone? Cheers!

31. Carolina (30) – Over under on Steve Smith punching someone out soon? 2.5 games?

32. Buffalo (32) – Ryan Fitzpatrick is trying really hard, of course that is probably the position they will address in the off season. And that is a great reason of why this team is 0-16. 

NFL 2010 week 8 picks:

Dolphins +3.5 over Bengals, 24-13

-I see the Dolphins as being significantly better than Bengals, and being underrated in general. They are also way more desperate.The dolphins should run all over them.

Chiefs -7.5 over Bills, 31-20

-Chiefs are much better. Start Moeaki if you have him, the Bills have no defense against tight ends. Fitzpatrick will again put up numbers in a loss.

Rams -3 over Panthers, 24-10

-The Panthers will be without DeAngelo Williams and also Jeff Otah, so this will be a rout.

Packers +6 over Jets, 23-20

-Packers are beaten up and tired, and the Jets are rested.However, I do not trust Sanchez, and I think the Packers are at least desperate enough to cover. The Jets may have some bye week rust, and Sanchez may get pick sixed by Charles Woodson here. This could actually look decently ugly. 

Lions -3 over Skins, 21-17

-The Skins are not that good, especially in the passing game. They are over reliant on Santana Moss (we all know what happens when that continues, he turns in one of his patented 1 catch for 7 yards games). McNabb was terrible last week. The Lions are rested, get their QB back, and will be reinvigorated.

Chargers -3.5 over Titans, 34-26

-Chris Johnson could have a couple big runs. However, Rivers is due for a huge game, and the Chargers might get the Titans looking on a West Coast game. I also don’t trust Collins or Vince Young in this game for both travel and age/health reasons. 

Pats -5.5 over Vikings, 31-13

-This could get uglier. The Vikings are going to get creamed via blitzes and coverages. The Pats are the better team, and have won 23 at home in a row. I just don’t see how the Vikes beat them, and Moss will be blanketed and booed all night.

Cards -3 over Bucs, 17-13

-The Bucs didn’t really deserve to win last week, and the Cardinals are feisty at home. Also, Larry Fitzgerald cannot do it all by himself but he is really due for a dominating performance where he breaks out no matter what is going on at the QB position.

Saints PK over Steelers, 31-24

-The Saints are due for a big win. They are at home. They were embarrassed last week. The Steelers snuck out the last few victories, and now have lost Aaron Smith. That really changes the defense. Saints get out early and Big Ben has a couple of picks while pressing.

Colts -5.5 over Texans, 37-27

-The Colts are hurt. They look old, small, overmatched. They can’t possibly make this run again. They have lost a key player recently. Oh wait, they do this every year? They have never lost a season series to the Texans? They are playing in prime time? Manning is still alive? Colts win.

Record last week:

Straight up: 5-7

Against the Spread: 6-6

Record this year:

Straight up: 44-27

Against the Spread: 32-40

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 162-95
Against the Spread: 132-126

The best Halloween movie is.....Halloween

Okay, so I hate Halloween. I cannot fully explain why, but I can try. First, I hate people in large groups. There are a lot of people out on Halloween. Thus, it is not my holiday. I don’t like going outside on Halloween. There is craziness. So, in the sense of still celebrating the holiday, this leaves the traditional scary movies on television. However here is the other problem: I hate scary movies.

I am not the traditional wimp, though I can get a little jumpy. However, my bigger problem is with how badly they are traditionally made. Also, they spawn sequels which saturate the theatres and just get worse and worse. It is acceptable for scary movies to be poorly written. It is okay for bad actors to perform very badly in these films.

So, in most circumstances throughout the year, I avoid “scary movies”. And, on Halloween, I watch anything but scary movies for the most part (as I edit this post I am watching A Few Good Men, some might call that scary, but I think not). However, there is one film that makes me forget my normal rules. There is one film I will sit and watch over and over again, and even on Halloween. That film is John Carpenter’s Halloween.

This film is one of the only truly deserving successors to Romero’s work (Night of the Living Dead) and Hitchcock’s Psycho. Halloween’s opening sequence is classic, and no one that has seen it for the first time can deny its power. For the first five minutes, the only shot is one continuous point of view shot from a stalker of a teenage girl. It never cuts and firmly establishes a relationship between viewer and stalker. Eventually the character goes upstairs and stabs the young girl more than a dozen times. We find out at the end of the sequence the attacker is a young boy in a clown suit on Halloween night. And thus Michael Myers in introduced.

The single moving camera approach is iconic, and has been reused many times. However, in this movie, it is especially powerful considering we are introduced to what we assume to be the killer through OUR perspective. There is an immediate identification that quite simply creeps people out. We don’t want to be the killer, the stalker, the attacker. However, because of the extended scene, we become them whether we want to or not.

Halloween has originality and power, and can be legitimately scary, rather than only “things jumping out of the dark” scary. Carpenter’s film actually creates dread and suspense. Carpenter’s killer, Michael, actually stalks his prey for a long time. He plays with them, firmly establishing how he can move around without being noticed. Doctor Loomis continually reinforces the fact that this character is pure evil, and also continually comments on how no one is watching. This is something the audience wants to shout to the characters throughout the movie. One of the scariest things in real life is how evil personified exists all around you without noticing. I would much rather be faced with an assailant head on than know one existed without striking range for days on end and I would have able to do nothing about it. That is terrifying.

The fact that there are very few adults in the movie makes it very creepy. There is an innocence and partial stupidity to the fact that the teenagers are going through the motions of a Halloween night completely unaware of their danger. The children are so exposed, and the teenagers are not taking care of them. Because of this, the “safety” factor is pretty much gone. We do not feel like there is any level of protection against Michael. The sheriff doesn’t really believe there is a problem, and Doctor Loonis is treated like he is Doctor Loony for a huge portion of the film.

The music of Halloween is an element that sets this film apart from other horror films. It is creepy and helps build the suspense and sense of dread. It is overdone in some ways, but clearly supports the pacing that sets this movie apart from others. Too many films simply throw violence at people. Other horror films just have a “fun” first half, with partying, a road trip, a gratuitous sex scene, etc. Then, in the second half 3/4s of the cast dies in the most gruesome deaths imaginable. However, John Carpenter’s film is different. It splices suspense all the way through the film. The pacing is slow, not fast and jumpy. The dread builds to a point where the audience feels the terror. Some people find the first half boring for this reason. I believe it makes you more invested in the characters. The technique is brilliant.

This film opened up the genre of horror for serial killers. Like Star Wars for science fiction, Halloween provided for the future of its genre. There would be no Jason, Krueger, Scream, etc, without Michael Myers. He is the original silent, creepy, and inhuman killer. Films that provide for a genre are inherently more important. This film fits that criteria and is incredibly unique.

Finally, Halloween has aged really well. We are at year 32 of its existence, but it is still really watchable and fresh. If you are a film buff, a scary movie lover, or just someone who enjoys a well crafted film, you awill tremendously enjoy Halloween. 

BLISS

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What are the Odds? NBA 2010-2011 Preview

NBA 2010-2011 Season Preview Deluxe

Another exciting NBA season is upon us. Never has a season had this much intrigue. Almost every team (sorry Minny) has something exciting to look forward to this season. I am going to run through my favorite picks for this year.

Great Odds

Blake Griffin for ROY, 2-1

-Some places it isn’t even 2-1. The only real competition is John Wall, and he may take some time to develop/share the ball too much. Blake is a beast, and should dominate.

Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant for MVP, 4-1 and 2.5 to 1

-It won’t be Lebron, so someone has to win. These two guys make the most sense. Durant is the best pick because he is a darling and will lap the league in scoring, but the Thunder may not be a completely elite team and the Lakers are. If Kobe is even slightly better than he was last year (and he can be, especially with even a slight FG% and assist bump), and the Lakers again have the best record, he could win the award quite easily. Both are good bets.

Nash for MVP, 40 to 1

-Not likely to happen. However: A. 40 to 1 is insane odds for someone who has won it twice before. B. If the Suns are good, it will be because of Nash. People love “new team/rising team guy who make them better” MVPs. C. He will get a lot of the fan appreciation sentiment, and the NBA people really love him too. Considering the insane return, not a bad speculative add to your list.

Linas Kleiza over 12.3 ppg

-I know, random, right? But, hear me out. Linas averaged 11 ppg in Denver two years ago. In Denver, he was at best the 5^th option. Now he’ll be the 2^nd at worst. He got better playing overseas. He rocked the World Championships, probably the second best player behind Kevin Durant there. He is now going to be playing in a Euro style team he is used to, with a running offense and jump shooters with the green light. He’ll get all the playing time and shots he could ever want, and might get 6 ppg just in threes. Just by volume of shots, he should hit this: I can see 17 ppg from him easily.

Amare over 23.3 ppg

-More mainstream this time. But, this is just as good a wager as Kleiza. Amare already scores about this much. However, his new team will focus on getting him shots like never before. The Suns in the Mike D’Antoni era had other good options too, and while Amare got used a lot, he was either young, alongside Shawn Marion, or coming off an injury. He was always NBA 1^st team level good, but did not get maximum usage at maximum health. Now, he will get that. He won’t have Nash, which is truly a downgrade now matter who the PG is (sorry Ray Felton, it’s not you…actually, it is you). However, I think the PG play around him affects his FG%, not his PPG. His attempts will increase 20%, and he could push 26 ppg again. Also, Amare isn’t bad for 35-1 MVP picks.

Blake Griffin over 8.5 rebounds per game

-The only reason he won’t get this would be injury. Have you seen this man crash the boards? He plays like he hates the ball and the backboard. He might push 12 boards a game. Last time I looked everyone loved this bet so much the moneyline was -150. So, the return isn’t great but it is pretty close to a sure thing.

Kevin Love to win rebounding title at 8-1 odds

-Okay, so I expect the rebounding title to come down to Blake, Love, and Dwight Howard, who has won it the last few years. Here is why Love will win it. Blake is still a rookie (well, you can argue he is not, but you know what I mean), and he still has Kaman to suck up at least 9 boards a game from him. He will get hurt, miss some games, and still needs a bit of experience and technical work. 10 for sure, but you need like 13 to win the title.

Dwight is a good bet to win it, but I don’t think he will. Here are my reasons why:

A.      He has won it in consecutive years, and not many have done that before. There is a reason for that.

B.      He is actually focusing on scoring more this year, and while it won’t change who he is, it may cost him perhaps a board per game (say .5 an offensive board a game too because he will actually be shooting the ball)

C.      Stan Van Gundy is on record saying he is going to use Gortat and Bass way more than last year, and both will suck up 4 boards a game minimum if played at all. Rashard will be a SF more this year, creating a big lineup where more people can rebound instead of it being just Dwight.

So, that leaves Love. His rebounding rate is ridiculous. He has averaged 9 and 11 boards a game in his first two years. He played under 30 minutes a game last year. That number will jump by at least 20% as his coaches aren’t stupid (his GM on the other hand….). Also, Al Jefferson and his 10 boards a game are gone. Love will soak up rebounds, and he seems to have a 14 board a night season in him. For 8-1 odds? Take it.

Golden State Warriors over 30.5 wins

-They seem to be feisty, and have a real team put together. I am not sure Curry-Monta-SF X-Lee-Biedrins gets you a ring, but it will definitively get you 35 wins. There will at least be continuity.

Miami Heat under 64.5 wins

-It is hard for good teams that have gelled together and have depth to get 65 wins. The odds just say they have an injury to one of the stars, an injury to a backup, and take a little time to gel completely. They also have weaknesses at PG and C, not at all positions that can be ignored. I am not being stupid: this team will win 57 games minimum. But 65 is a big number. Take the under. Plus, you know you want to root for this.

New York Knicks over 35.5 wins

-Book it! This is one of the easiest picks. There is an actual team in MSG this year. Other than Amare, the cast is not significantly better than it was before. However, they all now believe they are the team of the future, and the parts seem to fit better. Mike D’Antoni is still a top 5 coach and will be able to unleash his offense fully. At worst, they are entertaining 38-44 team, but I think they can get to .500 and a decent 5 game series versus Miami or Orlando before being sent home.

Oklahoma City Thunder over 51.5 wins

-This is not that different than they were last year, but now they add a year of growth from all players and Cole Aldrich. This team is so versatile it is sickening. Westbrook is among the best defenders at his position, and can play 3 positions. Durant can play 3 for sure, and 5 in emergencies. They can go super small with Maynor-Westbrook-Thabo-Green-Durant or super big with Westbrook-Durant-Green-Ibaka-Krstic and still have their best 3 players on the court at all times. They also added better 3 shooting and veteran leadership in Mo Peterson. Expectations are high, but 54-28 is safe.

Phoenix Suns over 41.5 wins

-The Suns have been over 48 wins every year for 6 years. Nash has won 48 games a year for 10 straight years. They may not be elite anyone, but Nash can will them to 45 wins, bare minimum. Also, this team has better defined roles than people think. Robin Lopez will be better and a real center. Channing Frye will serve his backup 4 and 5 spot well, coming in to shoot threes. Jason Richardson will be working hard to get a new contract. Goran Dragic can be a good backup point guard who will preserve Nash. The only issue is the 4 spot, because they have so many SFs. However, they do have some decent larger SFs that can work a system that has always produced results from some odd positional assignments (if they can succeed with Boris Diaw at center they can make Warrick work at PF) . Hedo is also so versatile he and Grant Hill or he and Warrick can go offense defense at the 3-4 and make it work. This team may surprise and be a feisty 6 seed that takes Portland or Oklahoma City to 7 games.

Awards

MVP: Kevin Durant, runner up Kobe Bryant

-Durant is a media darling and got the gold medal this summer. As long as they improve in wins and Lebron doesn’t put up 70 wins and a triple double, it is Durant’s award to lose.

Most Improved Player: Kevin Love, runner up Jrue Holiday

-He could put up 19-13 as the featured player, and also got a gold medal. He is also a great passer for his position, and will get a ton of usage.

Comeback Player of the Year: Gilbert Arenas, runner up Hedo Turkoglu

-Gilbert will put up 20 ppg with 5 rebs and 5 assists, is now fully healthy, and will help John Wall develop. Also, he didn’t rape anyone, shoot anyone, or commit a major crime against an animal. Was he an idiot? Yes. However, America forgives if they are crimes other than what I stated above. Actually, they forgive some of those crimes too.

Defensive Player of the Year: Dwight Howard, runner up Ron Artest

-Dwight is just easily the best. He may lose a little focus because of his offense, but not much. Artest is not a bad bet because he can focus solely on defense and shooting threes. The Lakers brought in more SFs to play, and he will be more comfortable in LA after a year.

Rookie of the Year: Blake Griffin, runner up John Wall

-Blake will have huge numbers and the Clippers should be better than the Wizards. Book it

STAT TITLES

PPG - Kevin Durant-33.4, Kobe Bryant-28.5

RPG - Kevin Love-13.2, Dwight Howard-12.6

APG - Deron Williams-11.7, Chris Paul-11.1

SPG - Rajon Rondo-2.6, John Wall-2.3

BPG - Dwight Howard-2.4, Josh Smith-2.3

FT% - Ray Allen-94.5%, Steve Nash-92.7%

FG% - Al Jefferson-61%, Dwight Howard-59.9%

3PT - Danilo Gallinari-210, Stephen Curry-190

TO - Steve Nash-305, Monta Ellis-287

FOULS - Roy Hibbert-310, David Lee-301

Season Preview

Finals: Lakers over Celtics, 6 games

Conference Finals: Celtics over Heat, Lakers over Jazz

Semi Finals: Celtics over Magic, Heat over Chicago, Lakers over Portland, Jazz over Thunder

Comments:

-I like the Lakers to take their last opportunity to win a title under the current conditions. The Celtics have a perfect team to take out the Heat (advantage at PG, defenders for Lebron/Wade, 3 diverse options at center, Garnett can contain Bosh and score with him). The Jazz have a less athletic team than last year but have much better role players. Raja will be able to stop Westbrook in the playoffs, and Kirilenko will be able to slow Durant. The Thunder will have no answer for Al Jefferson in the playoffs. Deron Williams emerges and leads the Jazz on a deep run, and gets Al Jefferson to play at a very efficient rate. Portland-Lakers is an epic series, but Andrew Bynum wins the “I am less hurt than you” battle with Greg Oden and the Lakers finish them.The Lakers have too much depth and size up front for the Heat to deal with, and Pau will punish Bosh in the post. Artest and Kobe may be the best two defenders for Lebron and Wade, and Matt Barnes will help there too. Kobe scores 30 a game in his last big playoff series, and wills them to victory.

And, of course, Kobe Bryant is the Finals MVP.

Good luck to everyone in fantasy, have a great hoops year!

BLISS

NFL Slants for Week 7

Checking Down:

1.       Roddy White is the best WR in the NFL. Moss is better deep, Andre is more physical, and Larry is a better leaper. However, Roddy does everything on the field, shows up every week, puts up numbers in run and pass heavy situations, has a medium level QB and offensive line, and does all the little things (running down INTs). I’m glad I have him on a couple teams, because he is so consistent and consistently good.

2.       Miami will never win kicking 3 FGs in a quarter in 3 red zone trips. Let Henne sling it a little bit, Fins!

3.       Baltimore concerns me. I am not sure Flacco has a “bring it to the next level” mode. He might just be “good” with no “great” switch.

4.       Chicago is…..I can’t even talk, I’m sorry.

5.       The Saints just beat themselves. Brees does what he does throwing the ball all over the place, but 3 picks in the first half will not get it done. Also, starting the second half with 1^st and 35 (not a misprint) will not help the comeback hopes.

6.       Tampa needs to do something other than kick FGs, but they did get a win. However, both STL and TB proved although they are improved they still have a ways to go.

7.       Chicago is inventing ways to lose. I think they have another turnover now. DeAngelo now has 6 picks. Actually, I still can’t, let’s move on.

8.       Kenny Britt, that was ridiculous. Imagine if he could stay out of the bars during the week.

9.       Run DMC looks like a real RB, and the Raiders almost look like a real team…nah.

10.   Arizona, that was ugly. Larry Fitzgerald seems ready to kill someone. I would be really upset too. Kurt Warner, where are you?!

11.   Philip Rivers was very impressive in a loss. However, at this point at 2-5 looking up at 4-2 KC (who beat them head to head), they have to be thinking it is panic time. Norv Turner might see the door after another loss. Is there some way he can be retained as offensive coordinator though?

12.   The 49ers are officially done. Seattle and STL will battle it out for that division

13.   The Redskins and Bears are an embarrassing 4-3 each. I have no idea how they each got 4 wins. They both wanted to give it away today: the Bears just had it last to be able to give it away. McNabb’s terrible performance was hidden by Cutler’s even worse performance.

14.   AJ Green in Detroit would look pretty good next year (Georgia on my mind)

15.   Buffalo, that was a nice try. Lee Evans, there you are!

16.   Who is Steve Johnson and why does he have 5 touchdowns in 6 games?

17.   Favre should sit down next week. Belichick will hit him and embarrass him. He has a broken ankle people. Really?

18.   Eli Manning is leading the league in TDs and INTs. Brees is second in INTs. Meanwhile, Ahmad Bradshaw is leading the league in rushing. So, the Giants are most explosive offense? (looks around in confusion)

19.   Green Bay needed that win for karma associated reasons, but they are still really flawed. The NFC North is officially the Black and Blue Division this year. The winner will be….actually, I don’t know. Chicago if they can pass protect for Cutler, Green Bay if they can run block and get Jackson to run, and Minnesota if the QB doesn’t die.

20.   The Giants are the best team in the NFC….by default. Atlanta, I am not back to fully trusting you.

21.   The Browns are frisky on defense, have a great left side of the offensive line, and have awesome special teams. Still, 6 win ceiling, but hey, small victories.

22.   Dallas without Romo is done. Best team by talent in the NFC, perhaps will have the worst record in the conference. Imagine a great O Lineman in the draft though….

23.   The Raiders had 38 points by mid 3^rd quarter and 59 by 3^rd quarter’s end. What? I mean….what?

Going Long

The coaching was terrible this week. Singletary is a one trick pony whose trick isn’t that good. Wade Philips, Norv Turner, and Brad Childress just got Master’s Degrees from the Andy Reid School of Time Management and Challenge Usage. Wade’s thesis was on “how many scores do I need?”. The coaching has been so bad that Tom Cable might be in the top 16 coaches by default. Now, that is weird.

I hate the whistle. I want to see plays end when they are finished. When a guy is still moving on top of a pile, or people still are trying to get a clearly loose ball, don’t blow the whistle. I understand the system is there for safety. However, we are ending plays before they should be ended. Officials, you cost Miami the game! It happened again with the Witten fumble Monday Night, and almost screwed over Dez Bryant on two other plays. How about we do this: have the whistle be blown later than it is now, maybe a half second  or full second after the play clearly ends, but give 20 yard penalties if players hit each other after that, or continue to obscure the ball. That will clear the piles and stop the late hits while also letting the play be fairly finished.

Finally, I want to write a shout out for Rob Ryan. He singlehandedly won that game for the Browns versus the Saints. I have no idea how this solid defensive mind is overlooked. Wherever he goes he wins. He won 3 rings with the Patriots as Linebackers coach from 2000-2004, producing Pro Bowlers in Willie McGinest and Tedy Bruschi. He coached the top ranked defense in 2003 while in NE. He was then defensive coordinator for Oakland. Despite no help or talent, he helped them to mid level rankings or higher, and produced some great young linebackers, good rush ends (Derrick Burgess…), and one of the best pass defenses in the league. This year, he moved to Cleveland, and has done wonders with very little real talent, and just contained the Super Bowl MVP. He forced Brees into 4 picks by daring him to throw deep (I know, that takes guts to pull off, but Rob did it).

Rob Ryan is the twin of Rex Ryan, son of Buddy Ryan. He also looks like a pirate, which helps the leadership factor and his level of likability. He learned defense and strategy from his brother, father, Romeo, Mangini, and Belichick. Ryan has that daring streak needed to excel. He has done really well in some tough spots, and there is no reason he couldn’t be a better head coach than many of the idiots running teams right now. So, when the next team fires someone, can we please hire him?

Good luck for Halloween, and keep the 6 team bye in mind as you plan for Eliminator leagues and fantasy!

BLISS

NFL 2010 Week 7 Predictions

So this was an interesting week. I nailed some predictions entirely (Steelers 28-10, Chiefs losing but covering), and totally whiffed on the Charges among others. However, something I have noticed that is clearly affecting my stats is the number of close games this year. I am winning pure picks 2-1, but am coasting just under .500 against the spread. At some point we will have separation, it has to happen.

This week is fun because 4 strong fantasy offenses are off. It could be a fairly subdued week.

My top 8: previous ranking in parenthesis

1. Pittsburgh (5) – I don’t see how any other team goes here. They won convincingly, and Big Ben clearly makes them better than what they were without him.

2. New England (6) – I know, it’s a homer pick. But, I almost put them number one. See, they beat Baltimore, my previous number one. Baltimore beat Pittsburgh, who is my number one right now. They have one loss, to the team I have number 4. I mean, that makes them at least the second best team, right? They seem to be coming together. And, they remind me of the 2003 Pats. That’s a good thing.

3. Baltimore (1) – Still perhaps the most complete team, top to bottom. They also beat Pittsburgh, and I think that they will eventually win the AFC North too.

4. Indianapolis (3) – They didn’t impress me a whole bunch, but they won and I am giving them significant credit on history.

5. New York Jets (6) – They don’t impress me, but they are winning. And, honestly, the passing game really hasn’t clicked like it could.

6. New Orleans (7) – They finally laid a butt kicking down last week, which is exactly what was needed. I see them and Atlanta as the class of the NFC, and whoever wins the division and thus gets home field the favorite. However, the fact it took until team 6 on this list to get to an NFC team tells you all you need to know about the situation between conferences.

7. Atlanta (2) – They did have a good 4 game stretch, and it could have been just an off game. The run game doesn’t look right, the pass game has no kill switch, and the pass defense is horrible (and now loses Dunta Robinson).

8. Philadelphia (NR) – I hate the QB controversy…just let Kolb play, he is a real QB. Otherwise, the offensive is explosive even though two players have injuries. The defense is growing. In the AFC? They’d have 8 wins and they’d miss the playoffs. In the NFC? 1^st round bye.

Fallen out:

Chicago (4) – They can be better, but losing to Seattle with Cutler playing okay is not good at all.

My bottom 4: previous ranking in parenthesis

29. Cleveland (NR) – San Francisco is simply better than this team, so they jump out of the basement and Cleveland falls here.

30. Oakland (NR) – Fire sale should have happened.

31. Carolina (30) – And then there was Matt Moore again.

32. Buffalo (32) – This team is dangerously on line for 0-16. That defense has no skill or motivation.  

NFL 2010 week 7 picks:

Falcons -3.5 over Bengals, 28-20

-Falcons will bounce back in a game they should win. The only fear is that without Dunta Robinson the Falcons DBs go from “marginal” to “terrible” really quickly. So, expect a big fantasy day from TOcho.

Bears -3 over Ethnic Slurs, 27-19

-Because the Bears should be almost back to full strength. At home. Against Donovan “I take 6 minutes and 12 plays to score in a very important situation” McNabb. And because I just don’t believe in the ‘Skins yet. I probably never will.

I have no idea on the Eagles-Titans game, but I love the over 43 bet.

Saints -13 over Browns, 31-10

-The Browns have no WRs, and Colt McCoy is still a rookie QB. I’d take 14 points too.

Rams +3 over Bucs, 20-19

-Sam Bradford impresses me, and the Bucs are going to come back to earth at some point. And the march to the NFC West title starts now for the Rams. That’s right, I said it. I believe in these Rams and their star WR, Donario Alexander! Ok, I’m done.

Ravens -13 over Bills, 38-13

-McGahee could get a 100 and a TD in relief here, as the Ravens beat up on the Bills in an easy one at home. The Bills are looking like 0-16 could be a possibility. Ravens will be refocused, and walk here easily.

Chiefs -9 over Jaguars, 27-10

-The Jags have no QB. They also can’t stop the run. Any more questions?

Cardinals +6.5 over Seahawks, 20-23

-I give the Cardinals some credit for having 3 wins (even if it might be the worst 3 wins this side of the Jags). Seattle wins but the line is too large. Max Hall isn’t great but he’ll be competent. He understands the “throw it to Larry” offense well.

Patriots +3.5 over Bolts, 31-28

-Chargers could win, but the Pats will at least cover. I see another Pats-Ravens, with the difference being the Ravens are better than the Bolts, but the Pats aren’t at home this time. Normally I worry about the East Coast going West, but it is a 415 game. Also, I love the over on this game, no matter how high it fluxes. This should be entertaining. Bill vs. Norv is just a mismatch.

Raiders +9.5 over Broncos, 21-20

-The Broncos are a better team and should win. However, their greatest strength in pass defense is aligned against the league second leader passer. I see a slower paced game with more Moreno and the run game, and a late rushing TD by Oakland getting the win for Oakland. 

Vikings +2.5 over Packers, 27-24

-The Packers are really beat up, and now Driver might be out. The Packers are reeling from overtime loses and their injuries. I don’t see how they account for Adrian Peterson in their game. Packers can win this game, but mostly likely the Vikings, being the ones who need it more, get the victory.

Oh yeah, and Brett Favre has a grudge against Green Bay, or something like that?

Cowboys -2.5 over Giants, 31-17

-Cowboys need it more, Giants are a fake 4-2 team. Dallas Special Teams will be a difference maker. Probably a good first half by both teams, and then an ugly end to the game with Eli throwing it everywhere but into receivers’ hands and the Cowboys unable to run out the clock because their O-Line cannot move anyone.

I really like using Kansas City this week as an Eliminator Pick. Good week to use up one of these mid level teams. For a surer thing, take the Saints over Cleveland.

Record last week:

Straight up: 9-5

Against the Spread: 7-6

Record this year:

Straight up: 39-20

Against the Spread: 26-34

Lifetime record:
Straight up: 157-88
Against the Spread: 127-119

BLISS

Giants-Rangers World Series....hopefully

Here is to a (probable) Giants-Rangers World Series!

I am extremely excited about this possible matchup. The Giants have a great premise. They are built on pitching and defense. They have sneaky good 2^nd and 3^rd options. Their ace is in the interesting position of being the reigning two time Cy Young winner and yet having a lot to prove because of his youth and the rough middle of regular season he had. The team is interesting offensively, with a few guys you know, and a few you don’t. People seem to appreciate the post-Bonds Giants for how they built this team and have succeeded. 

I have truly loved how the Giants utilized the regular season and examined their roster. Bengie Molina was one of their most recognizable offensive players. However, they saw they had an elite talent waiting to play catcher, and traded Molina (ironically, to the Rangers). They activated Buster Posey, who has been dynamic for them and may win NL Rookie of the Year. They replaced several other key position players with others that got the job done. They even replaced Pablo Sandoval, who was supposed to be their big hitter, when he wasn’t performing. 

The funny part is how Bruce Bochy went about it. He replaced players as he saw fit, but somehow kept the players that he benched happy and ready to play. Many players, especially veterans, would react negatively to being replaced. However, what happened was the complete opposite. For example, Pablo Sandoval came off the bench for Thursday nights’ NLCS game 4 and had a couple of huge plate appearances. By upgrading the main roster, Bruce Bochy was able to upgrade the bench as well. That depth has served them well.

The Rangers are a completely different story. This team was built via some key free agents and deals. They have some good players built through the farm system, but some of the big personalities and styles for this team are represented by people they acquired on the open market.

Over the last few years, this has been a fun team. We knew that they score runs; we also knew they had young, bad pitching. They took a chance on Josh Hamilton, a guy with massive talent but also many legal and substance abuse problems. Hamilton brought even more fun to the team (along with many home runs). He became a symbol of the Rangers, abusing everyone at the Home Run Derby last year. This off season, they added Vlad Guerrero. Molina came during the season. They now had a good mix of veterans wanting to prove something and youth with energy. 

While Bruce Bochy was making shrewd moves to manage his team, Ron Washington has had a different kind of year. He admitted to cocaine use during the 2009 season, and this season has truly been redemption for him. The Rangers in general have been comeback kids. They have raised their win total the last 4 years consecutively, and filled in the areas of need. 

The biggest area that needed fixing was pitching. Mostly, they have built from within. However, the clearly defining moment this year was when the team saw Cliff Lee available and snagged him. Now, I was stunned then and am stunned now that Lee got to the Rangers. I was sure the Yankees would grab him. Perhaps they figured that they could win this year and still be able to get him in free agency without giving up anything in a trade. Well, if that is true it is going to come back to haunt them. Cliff Lee has been dynamite in the playoffs (as he was last year, why did the Phillies trade him again?).

However, I have just given you the reason why these teams are interesting. I could just end this with saying we have had too much of the Yankees and the Phillies and end the conversation there. However, I am not. Because there is more than the fact the Yanks and Phils are boring as to why I want to see the Giants-Rangers in the World Series. You see, baseball is broken. 

I tweeted earlier this week how a boring MNF in a terrible city beat the League Championship game that night in ratings and viewership. That should be an indictment all on its own. Never mind the fact that even the decent fan cannot actually watch a whole game completely through from beginning to end. Games over 4 hours should not exist. Bill Simmons wrote a great column a few months back on ways we could speed it up (a pitch clock, having teams ready to go after commercial breaks, limiting time between at bats, true instant replay so managers don’t spend 10 minutes a game arguing). Baseball is already a slow game by nature, but it can be done in 2.5 hours, 3 max. The 4 hour wait fest doesn’t hold peoples’ attention.

However, baseball is broken in even more egregious ways. Now, I had an interesting conversation with a friend the other day about a comment she made about the Miami Heat 2010-2011 team being unfair. I found this interesting because she is a diehard Yankees fan. Now, don’t get me wrong, I hate the Heat. I have never liked Lebron in Cleveland. I hate the way he goes about his life, and specifically how he went about acting this summer. He just seemed mean and so self centered. However, I don’t blame the Heat for doing what they did. But, there is a cap in the NBA. The Heat had to fit their guys under it, and they did. They did the same thing the Lakers and Celtics did in the years before them. There is a set of rules in the NBA, and while it isn’t perfect, it does create a good product. I am okay with teams dominating over others, just not the complete inability of other teams to ever rise to that station. There are no rules in MLB. At least the Heat had to follow a set of rules, and they succeeded within a constraining system. 

I have a problem with the MLB system with no cap. It lets a few teams spend with impunity year after year. And, seemingly, the MLB doesn’t care. They seem to want the Yankees and Phillies (and Red Sox and Cardinals) to spend and win every year. They don’t want instant replay to give us the true results of the game. They don’t want to put the games at a pace that makes them watchable. They don’t want to give the fans of Pittsburgh, Toronto, Cleveland, or Kansas City a legitimate chance to actually compete other than in a really freakish outlying year. Only in the Majors do we have SUPPORTED INEQUITY. Selig just doesn’t care, and this offseason again, we will hear about the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels bidding 170 million for Cliff Lee and then 150 for Carl Crawford. 

So, you know what? Let’s have Giants and Rangers in the World Series. And let’s have a Giants victory, winning in 5 games that are all 2-1 games, with low scoring and good but not awesome pitching. Let’s finish the games in 2 hours each, and get no commercials in. Lots of short pop ups, bloop singles, and ground ball outs. And, let’s have at least 4 blown calls that anyone with a television set made after 1950 can see in about 4 seconds. Think baseball would get it then? Yeah, probably not.

BLISS