NBA 2012 Playoffs: Conference Finals

2012 NBA Playoffs

On time this go around, here are my conference picks. As much as they pain me.

Eastern Conference Finals: HEAT defeat Celtics, 4-1

-I want the Celtics to beat them so badly. I would never rejoice more in being wrong if this comes to pass. But honestly it probably will not. The HEAT are more talented just because of their top two guys. And to make it worse, games 5 and 7 will be at home. My prediction for the series is that the HEAT take the first two games mostly because the Celtics are so tired from their previous series. The Celtics will play well in the middle of the series but with the deciding games at home and an eventual Chris Bosh return at some point middle to late in the series, the HEAT take this and return to the Finals. Rondo and Garnett should be great, especially considering their matchups, but I have no idea who covers Wade. And as Wade goes, the HEAT go.

-The only way the Celtics can make this competitive is if Pierce negates Lebron best as that is possible, Bass plays well close to the bucket, Allen/Pietris bug the heck out of Wade, and Rondo puts up a triple double or near it each and every game. Seriously, a Bill Simmons’ like 42 Count Club every game. I am taking Garnett being brilliant for granted. Could this happen? Yes, Rondo is brilliant enough. But is it likely? Unfortunately not. But it would be a hell of an end to the Big 3 Era to cripple the Heatles.

Western Conference Finals: Thunder over Spurs, 4-2

-I oscillated on this for a while. I truly believe San Antonio is the best team in the NBA. But I think the Thunder are the NY Giants to the Spurs’ New England Patriots. OKC is the correct kind of team to take them down. So they do so in 6, ending at home because if it gets to a game 7 the Spurs will win.

-Matchup wise it is so close. Harden cancels Ginobili. Parker and Westbrook cancel on speed and passing ability, Parker’s leadership and experience is countered by Westbrook’s athleticism. Duncan/Blair/Bonner’s skill set is well countered by Perkins/Collison/Ibaka. But the first reason I am picking OKC to win this series is Durant.

-Durant will probably be played by Leonard, who I like a lot. But he hasn’t been pushed yet. They have equal youth and energy, but Durant has five years of experience. Durant is the best scorer on the planet. He has shown to be clutch throughout his career, this season, and in these playoffs specifically. Durant will own this matchup. Scary part? He hasn’t even had an explosion yet this postseason. It is coming.

-However, the second and larger reason I am picking the Thunder is the competition. The Spurs have rolled since tax season. 18 straight and most of them not close. But they had the Jazz, who had no business being here. Then they took out the Clippers who were hampered by injuries and coming off no rest since their Memphis series. The Thunder took out the defending champion Mavs, and then took out 2 time champion Lakers. While both teams were not their best, it was much better than the combo platter that was the Clippers and Jazz.

Finals pick:

I have said the Thunder for a while and am not going to change now. I have also said the Western Conference was winning regardless of who it was, and am staying on that too. Durant for Finals MVP, and may a dynasty begin this year. In Oklahoma City. Seattle will now light itself on fire.

NBA 2012 Playoffs: Semifinals

2012 NBA Playoffs

So I was unable to get round two picks in before the round started because of the staggering of game 1s. However, the results of the Celtics-Sixers and HEAT-Pacers game ones honestly didn’t change my picks there.

Eastern Conference Semifinals:

HEAT defeat Pacers, 4-2

-I liked certain matchups for the Pacers in this series but thought the Wade-Lebron factor would mean the best player in the series is always playing for the HEAT and this would cause them to win. But the fact that Indiana played hard in game 1 and Bosh got hurt means I can see this going 7. The fact that the Pacers hung in despite Granger going 1-10 is even more encouraging. But 6 games still seems like the right answer.

Celtics defeat Sixers, 4-1

-Only the fact that game 4 is in Philadelphia makes me give this series 5 games. Boston will take care of business, which could be the name of this series. Pierce will get his rest because they will be waiting for HEAT-Pacers to finish up. Put it this way: Philly played its rear ends off in Game 1, Celtics played badly, and the Celtics still won. Another dominant Rondo game is coming, and a better Pierce-Allen shooting game is coming. That will get them two more wins easily. Series over in 5.

Western Conference Semifinals:

Spurs defeat Clippers, 4-1

-Again, only the fact that the Spurs will have to win two in LA makes me give a fifth game prediction for this series. The Spurs may be a bit rusty because of the extended time off, but they will click into place just fine. The Clippers are hurt and tired. Chris Paul is meeting one of the other quickest PGs on the planet. Manu is going to be defended by Nick Young. Tim Duncan draws DeAndre Jordan and Kenyon Martin. There are just egregious mismatches across the board. But the real story is Pop versus Vinny. Wait, maybe I should make this a sweep…

Thunder defeat Lakers, 4-1

-The Lakers are good enough to beat the Thunder. They just won’t get close this year. First, the Lakers’ biggest strength is somewhat nullified by the defensive tandem of Iblaka and Perkins. Perkins knows how to defend Gasol/Bynum. While Metta and Kobe will do a decent job on Durant, I have no idea how the Lakers, who couldn’t guard Andre Miller, will slow down Westbrook. But honestly, the rest factor, and revenge factor for James Harden, will make this look easy for OKC in this particular year. An OKC win will be billed as a changing of the guard. However, it honestly isn’t. The Lakers just don’t have enough in the tank to do this right now.

Finals pick:

Obviously, my Thunder over Bulls prediction isn’t going to work. I will stay with the Thunder, but now over the Celtics. I know, the homer pick accusations come now. But I actually think it makes sense. The HEAT have a better chance of being upset by the Pacers than the Celtics do by the Sixers. The HEAT may have a serious Bosh problem. The Celtics are proving time and again they may be the most clutch last two minute team in the NBA. Rondo is dominating right now; he is clearing the field in assists per game in the playoffs. His bad games are triple doubles. And I am reminded of the blowout win late in the season over the HEAT by the C’s. Something just seems right about that matchup. Whether it is the Celtics or HEAT, it actually doesn’t matter to me: the Thunder probably win the title and the winner is coming from the Western Conference guaranteed.

BLISS