Saturday, February 11, 2023

2022 NFL Week 22 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday

 2022 NFL Week 22 Predictions: Super Bowl Sunday


I got both title games wrong last week, but really feel like emotionally I got them correct. The 49ers QB injuries were unfortunate, so we have no idea how that game would have turned out. The Eagles did have the luck of the 4th down conversion (that was not a catch by DSmith), and the turnover on the play Purdy got hurt, so it was looking down for SF regardless. And I don’t know what happened in KC other than the team with the better coach and QB won. A corollary we have to remember more often. And I may ignore it in about five minutes. 


So for this game, I don’t know. My confidence level for this game is low, a range of outcomes would make sense to me. Super Bowls are normally lower scoring and have nervous starts. But the Eagles have been fast starters all year with dynamic and consistent running options that have been fairly matchup proof. The Chiefs score at will, and again, have the better QB. For much of NFL history, the better team, especially on the lines, has won the title. That would be Philly, by a fair margin. They also happen to have better skill possession players, by a fair margin even after accounting for Travis Kelce. But in the last twenty years, the team with the better HC/QB has more often than not (often named Belicheck and Brady). That’d be KC, and that has already worked in the last half decade versus a SF team that isn’t that unlike this Eagles team. Here’s the difference, and why I’m leaning Philly. 


Hurts is something else. His dynamic nature is going to be a big problem for a leaky KC defense, especially if Chris Jones is weak/sick or Snead isn’t really 100%. He has been hurt, but got two weeks off, then after 1 game a bye, then two relatively easy games where he didn’t have to take a lot of hits/contact. He should be closer to week 6ish Hurts than week 18 Hurts. 


The Philly pass rush was already a strength. With the Chiefs O-Line not quite living up to its impact on the payroll, and Mahomes still having some lingering effects of the ankle injury, I think that plays a huge role. They signed a bunch of rushers in their prime or post prime to win a title. Now’s the time for them to ring up 6-8 sacks. 


The Eagles were 16-1 with Hurts as a starter, and were rolling as the best team in the NFL only 6 weeks ago in a division that sent 3/4 teams to the playoffs and the 4th team was only eliminated with 1 week to go. Strength of team, depth, and they destroyed teams when they won. The Chiefs have won close games, and that’s a skill. But I think the talent edge takes over here. Finally, while Andy is fairly rated as the better and more experienced coach, I actually like Sirianni’s game management, timeout and challenge use, and general aggressiveness more. I like them to have some long drives that chew up time, yards, morale, and produce touchdowns instead of field goals. 


So I’m taking Philly, in a relatively high scoring game for a Super Bowl. I’m glad the line is under 3 either way, because there’s no way I could bet against Mahomes in a Super Bowl and deal with more points than that.


Eagles +1.5 over Chiefs, 34-30


Props I like: 

Hurts will score a TD - Just feels like that goal line push is happening once. 

Goedert over on yards - He had a really high yards per game before getting hurt, and they haven’t had to use him since he came back. This number has been really low everywhere I’ve seen it because of that perceived dip. 

Travis Kelce over 25 yards in each half - That seems like free money. 

There will be a special teams TD - Good returners, shaking kicking, really good secondaries at returning turnovers. 

Miles Sanders over rushing yards - Wherever it is set (seeing it around 72 many places), that’s too low. 

Chiefs under rushing yards - Just seems like the plan will be Mahomes and running back screens (which count as passing, not rushing). 


Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 0-2

By Spread: 0-2


Record This Year:

Straight Up: 168-97

By Spread: 133-132


Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2055-1134
By Spread: 1678-1605


Sunday, January 29, 2023

2022 NFL Week 21 Predictions: Championship Round

 2022 NFL Week 21 Predictions: Conference Championship Round


49ers +3 over Eagles, 24-23

-By far and away the tougher game to predict (give everyone the four teams in September and surprise them with that assertion). Both teams are super tough, well built, and have turned unexpected QB situations (that are cheaply paid) into major successes. But SF has better health and consistency going into this game. Philly had bigger heights this season, and can absolutely reach them again and win this game. But SF is in the midst of their roll, with slightly better defense, special teams, and coaching. I would bet on it to continue. 


Bengals +2 over Chiefs, 31-20

-This is only somewhat about Mahomes's health. I think he likely will be either ginger on the ankle, or will grow worse during the game. But either way, the Bengals have had their number. 3 wins in two years. Absolutely "don't give a shit" attitude about facing the Chiefs. Reid+Mahomes have the skill and mystique versus most teams to out execute and pull off close wins. This year, with a more limited Chiefs team, that has been enough. But the Bengals are not given to becoming lost in the mystique, and have enough skill and experience to overcome. This team is young and hungry and filled with vitriol. At some point attribution catches up with KC, and I think it's here. 


Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 3-1

By Spread: 4-0


Record This Year:

Straight Up: 168-95

By Spread: 133-130


Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2055-1132
By Spread: 1678-1603

Friday, January 20, 2023

2022 NFL Week 20 Predictions: Divisional Round

 2022 NFL Week 20 Predictions: Divisional Round

Jags +9 over Chiefs, 27-31

-I wish I had the guts to pick a full upset, but having the underdog to cover is as far as I am willing to go. The Jags can score and move the ball and the Chiefs, while still the Chiefs, haven’t quite been at that elite level this year. 


Eagles -7.5 over Giants, 30-22

-I honestly don’t know what to do with this game. Any more points, and I’d probably take the Giants. One of two things could happen. The Eagles could be flat, injured, and still rusty from the bye week and lose this game. However, I think it’s more likely that they’re healthy and closer to the team that they were for the first 12 weeks of the season.


Bengals +5.5 over Bills, 27-30

-I honestly don’t know who wins, so the score prediction is a toss up. I am taking the Bengals and the 5.5 for a couple of reasons. First, they are the reigning AFC champions, with Joe Burrow, and have honestly looked like a better team than the Bills over the past 2 months. Second, I have no idea what to make of the Bills. The combination of Allen’s performance since his elbow injury and the general weirdness of their past 2 months makes it kind of impossible to predict whether this (admittedly more talented team) will win or by enough.


49ers -4 over Cowboys, 31-20

-I truly think the Cowboys are fake. What happened to Tampa was sad, because it really wasn’t against a good team. Maybe it will be proven wrong and they will beat San Francisco. However, San Francisco matches Dallas’s flashy talent on defense, but raises it with better coaching and consistency. On offense, they are slightly more skilled at each skill position. And the head coach matchup isn’t even close. 


Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 3-3

By Spread: 2-4


Record This Year:

Straight Up: 165-94

By Spread: 129-130


Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2052-1131
By Spread: 1674-1603

Friday, January 13, 2023

2022 NFL Week 19 Predictions: Wild Card Round

 2022 NFL Week 19 Predictions: Wild Card Round

 

49ers -9.5 over Seahawks, 27-10

-The Seahawks have had a nice season. But they are running into the big physical monster team. 

 

Chargers -2 over Jaguars, 27-20

-I know a lot of people are going the other way with this pick. And believe me, I am frustrated that Staley played his starters last week for so long. However, I think Mike Williams will be more missed next week versus Kansas City. There are a lot of similarities between these teams and the Jaguars do have an experience advantage at head coach. However, the Chargers have an experience advantage across the defense and skill positions.

 

Bills -13 over Dolphins, 34-6

-I think this is going to be an absolute butt-whooping. Skylar just can’t keep up with Josh. 

 

Vikings -3 over Giants, 27-23

-It comes down to whether you believe winning close games is random or a skill. In this case, that means you either believe regression is coming or a skill will be in repeated use. I’m leaning toward the latter. The best player in this game (Jefferson) also happens to represent the Giants’ biggest weakness: they cannot produce points or yards dynamically. 

 

Bengals -8.5 over Ravens, 31-13

-I almost feel bad for the Ravens, because I would love to see this contest at full strength. Almost.  

 

Bucs +2.5 over Cowboys, 24-23

-Thomas. Edward. Patrick. Brady. The Cowboys lost badly to them in Week 1 and while that’s a long time ago, the Bucs are restarting their season right now and none of the rest of it matters. Are they a perfect team? No. But they have enough with a lot of SB champions on the roster. And these Cowboys are fake. I would even celebrate the Cowboys winning. While that would make this selection wrong, it would set up an even bigger fall for Dallas next week.

 

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 12-4

By Spread: 10-6

 

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 162-91

By Spread: 127-126

 

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2049-1128
By Spread: 1672-1509

Friday, January 6, 2023

2022 NFL Week 18 Predictions

 2022 NFL Week 18 Predictions 

Chiefs -9.5 over Raiders, 37-27

-Chiefs need this to get the #1 seed as much as I wish it wasn’t so.

 

Jaguars -6.5 over Titans, 31-17

-I actually feel super confident about this. The Titans are just in shambles. 

 

Colts -3 over Texans, 16-10

-Bryce Young, baby. 

 

Vikings -6 over Bears, 31-10

-One team that needs it and one team that isn’t playing Fields. 

 

Bengals -9 over Ravens, 31-13

-Hard to gauge the emotional impact for Cincinnati and Buffalo this weekend. However, Cincy probably wants to secure a home game in the playoffs and get sharp again.

 

Dolphins -3.5 over Jets, 24-16

-Flacco is involved…but so is Skylar. So, yeah I don’t know. 

 

Panthers +3.5 over Saints, 17-16

-Yeah, I have no idea so I am just going to take the 3.5.

 

Patriots +7 over Bills, 21-24

-I’m just taking the points for a team that needs to win to get into the playoffs. 

 

Falcons -4 over Bucs, 20-12

-The Bucs don’t need this game and they have shown the ability to lose a ton of games even when trying. 

 

Steelers -2.5 over Browns, 17-13

-Considering Pittsburgh needs to win this game to have a shot at the playoffs, this line makes no sense. 

 

Seahawks -6 over Rams, 24-6

-Two teams just going in different directions. 

 

Broncos -3 over Chargers, 16-10

-Chargers don’t have a lot to play for, so I wouldn’t put any stock in this game at all. 

 

Eagles -10 over Giants, 28-6

-This line is probably going to move radically, but the Eagles should destroy what should be mostly 2nd unit players from New York. 

 

49ers -14 over Cardinals, 33-3

-see (Eagles vs Giants). 

 

Cowboys -7 over Commanders, 31-10

-It’ll be nice to see Sam Howell and then it’ll be nice to see Sam Howell throw the ball to the other team. 


Packers -4.5 over Lions, 31-24

-I have no idea why this game isn’t being played concurrently or preceding the Seattle game. It’s a huge disadvantage for Seattle. However, I will say if there was a team to still try hard even though they know they’ve already been eliminated, it is the kneecap-biting Detroit Lions. Oh, and I still have Aaron Rodgers winning this game.

 

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 10-4

By Spread: 7-7

 

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 149-87

By Spread: 117-120

 

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2037-1124
By Spread: 1662-1503

Saturday, December 31, 2022

2022 NFL Week 17 Predictions

2022 NFL Week 17 Predictions

 

Eagles -5.5 over Saints, 28-17

-Eagles can score and the Saints can’t; the Eagles also really need this game…actually the Saints do, too, but just aren’t as good.

 

Lions -6 over Bears, 31-10

-Lions are a different team at home. And Fields looks like he’s on the “don’t get hurt in the last two games” plan.

 

Bucs -3.5 over Panthers, 24-18

-Bucs move one step closer to a painful division title and one of the best opportunities to bet against a home playoff team in a while. 

 

Chiefs -12.5 over Broncos, 27-3

-Is that too many points to project for the Broncos? 

 

Giants -5.5 over Colts, 20-6

-The coaching mismatch is tremendous here. So is the execution difference. 

 

Jaguars -3 over Texans, 27-23

-Honestly, this is probably a stay away. The Jags say they are playing everyone, but I’ll believe it when I see it. One ankle turned by a star, or if it becomes a physical game in the 4th quarter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Doug pull everyone. 

 

Falcons -6 over Cardinals, 23-3

-This might be the lowest total I have ever predicted in a week across all of the games. But the Cardinals are sitting Hopkins and David Blough is involved (plus the Falcons are technically alive).

 

Commanders -1.5 over Browns, 20-12

-I guess. Whatever. Not watching a second of this game. 

 

Patriots -2.5 over Dolphins, 24-20

-This isn’t really a vote of confidence in the Pats (and heaven knows Miami in the last month of the season is a personal hell for them). However, with not Tua and the team reeling, it just makes too much sense to grab the Pats when it’s not 3.

Jets -1.5 over Seahawks, 17-13

-Seahawks are having trouble scoring and the Jets aren’t a good team to see when that’s your problem. The return of Mike White means a return to the winner circle.

 

49ers -9.5 over Raiders, 33-3

-Truly unwatchable…except the 49ers are my eliminator pick. 

 

Chargers -6.5 over Rams, 26-14

-Respect to the Rams for actually executing an offense last week, but this probably is a return to normal. The Chargers have strung together several competent weeks, Herbert is actually due for a big game, and the Chargers are getting several players back from injury now.

 

Packers -3 over Vikings, 27-23

-This isn’t technically a prime time game, but apparently 97% of the country is going to see it. Those typically don’t end well for Kirk Cousins. Are the Packers good? Probably not. Do you want to bet against Aaron Rodgers going runner runner and getting in the playoffs? I’ll let you do that.

 

Ravens -2.5 over Steelers, 14-10

-Another truly unwatchable game, but this one may feature several injuries and beefs. 

 

Bills -1 over Bengals, 33-27

-I respect the Bengals a lot and they’ve proved their mettle against really good teams. But the Bills at full strength are still the best team in the NFL and need this a lot more. 


Record Week 15:

Straight Up: 10-4

By Spread: 6-8

 

Record Week 16:

Straight Up: 10-5

By Spread: 9-6

 

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 139-83

By Spread: 110-113

 

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2027-1120
By Spread: 1655-1496 

2022 NFL Week 16 Predictions

 2022 NFL Week 16 Predictions 

Saints +3.5 over Browns (outright) 

Ravens -6.5 over Falcons

Bengals -3 over Pats 

Bills -8.5 over Bears 

Viks -5 over Giants 

Lions -2 over Panthers 

Chiefs -10 over Seahawks 

Texans +3 over Titans (just cover) 

49ers -6.5 over Commanders 

Cowboys -4 over Eagles 

Broncos -3 over Rams 

Raiders +2.5 over Steelers (outright)

Fins -3.5 over Packers 

Bucs -8 over Cards 

Chargers -4.5 over Colts

 

Record Last Week:

Straight Up: 10-4

By Spread: 6-8

 

Record This Year:

Straight Up: 129-78

By Spread: 101-107

 

Lifetime Record:
Straight Up: 2017-1115
By Spread: 1646-1490