2012 NBA Playoffs
Ah, the NBA Finals. It is possibly
the best event in sports, especially considering the time of the year. School
is out, things feel alive in the world, and we all have time to watch. The
Super Bowl is one day, over so quickly. The World Series is occurring at the
same time as so many other sports. Basketball manages to drive the intensity up
for their Finals, especially because the Stanley Cup Finals are just about over
now.
While I am excited for this, I
am very conflicted with the Finals this year, for many reasons. Like last year,
I have a clear team to root for. I have liked the Thunder for years. The
players are likeable. Durant signed his extension at midnight the day he was
eligible. Westbrook keeps his issues under control, and maximizes his
athleticism. Harden is among my three favorite players (hey there Kevin Love,
Steve Nash), and is entertaining. They are humble, don’t mind playing in a “small
market”, and are supportive of each other. The fans care. They have good role
players, and are built well as a TEAM.
However, I am upset for other
reasons. The Heat are here again, mainly because of the weak East. That Celtics
team shouldn’t have gotten past game 5. No one in the East was any good, so the
Heat are here again. I’m not mad that the Celtics lost: I’m upset that I have
to watch the Heat for another 2 weeks. I also love the current NBA because it
is the golden age of point guards. However, we aren’t really seeing that because
it is Russell Westbrook (a 2-guard in a point guard’s role) versus Mario
freaking Chalmers. In truth we are going to see a lot of James Harden versus
Wade handling the ball. This isn’t necessarily bad, and the basketball produced
in this series will be great because of it. But it isn’t classic and isn’t what
I have been enjoying all year.
I also dislike that there are
a lot of misconceptions going on. The first that the Thunder are a better built
team. That isn’t true. They are unbalanced in their composition, just like the
HEAT. There is overloaded talent at the SG and the SF positions, with no true
point guard and no back to the basket scorer. The Thunder have a better bench,
some good role players but still aren’t a classically assembled team like the
Spurs or Celtics. The Thunder are a better TEAM than the Heat, in terms of
communication and understanding each other, utilizing each others’ talent. But
it is going to get said a lot this week that the Thunder are a better
constructed team, and that isn’t true. There are actually a lot of similarities
between the two competitors. Plus, there is the whole, “team name is already a
plural word without an s at the end” thing that makes it awkward to say “Durant
is a Thunder, Lebron is a Heat”.
This series is also going to
get unfairly labeled as a matchup between the youth of the league and as a
passing of the torch. Well, let’s be honest: the Lakers, Celtics, and Spurs are
several years away from their most recent titles. In terms of scoring titles,
headlines, Sportscenter highlights, team wins, and media attention, this has
already been the era of the Thunder and Heat, along with the Bulls, for a few
years now. And this just in…these teams aren’t young.
The Heat are anchored by 30
year old Wade, and a Bosh/James combo that while still in their twenties have been
playing for 9 years. 9 years of experience and mileage isn’t young. Combine
that with Turiaf, Battier, Juwan Howard, Mike Miller, etc, the Heat aren’t a
young team. Rio is their infusion of youth.
The Thunder may be young
numerically: Durant (23), Westbrook (23), Harden (22), and Ibaka (22) sum to 90
years of age. But that is a combined 15 years of NBA experience just with those
four. Durant has 5 years, 10000 points, and 3 scoring titles on his resume. Collison
has been around, Fisher has 5 rings, 7 Finals appearances, Perkins has a ring
and two Finals appearances. That isn’t “young”. They’ve been taken out in the
first round. They’ve been to the Western Finals and felt a harsh sense of loss.
Are the Thunder fresh, energetic, athletic? Yes, they are. But young,
inexperienced? I don’t think so.
Overall this series will be
good for the NBA, good for young fans jumping on a team now, people on opposite
ends of the Durant/Lebron spectrum (which could be what we hoped Kobe/Lebron,
Melo/Lebron, Wade/Lebron could be in terms of rivalry), good for those who like
great crowds and arenas (for OKC anyways). But I am a little sad one of the two
“older” teams didn’t get in. Then we would have seen how new school matches up
with old on the biggest stage.
I won’t waste time holding
off my pick until the end. I’ve been consistent with it in each of these
previews for the past 5 weeks.
Thunder in 6 games, Durant for MVP.
The Thunder are the better
team, better TEAM, have home court advantage with a great home court, had 3
days more rest, don’t have to fly for another week, and have so many little
advantages. The only reason I don’t have this done in 5 games is because games
3, 4, and 5 are in Miami. The dumb Finals format makes it hard to win both games
at home and then 2 of 3 in the opponent’s arena. It is more likely the Thunder win
both at home, then 1 of 3 on the road, then close it out at home. If the series
gets to a Game 7, I would take the Thunder then too.
So why, other than my obvious
and documented distaste for Lebron and the Heatles, have I made this
prediction?
Reason 1: Durant cancels
Lebron. This is perhaps the only person that can cancel Lebron’s impact. Durant
isn’t the defender Lebron is, but steals better, rebounds a little better, and
can score a little better. He will also push Lebron more than Pierce did, and
may draw more fouls from Lebron.
Reason 2: The home court. The
Thunder arena is among the most ridiculous place I have ever seen in terms of
crowd impact. They love this team, and because the Thunder rely on jump
shooting, blocks, and running, they feed more than usual on the home crowd. I guarantee
the crowd influences two Thunder wins at home.
Reason 3: Durant hasn’t had
the big game yet. He has had impressive stretches in the Spurs series,
including a great second half in Game 3 to close out the game, and also a great
game 6. But he hasn’t dropped the ridiculous 45-50 point game yet, and it is
coming. Perhaps in game 3 or 4 in Miami, when they need it most. But that gets
them one game guaranteed. Durant has played around 20 playoff games this year,
and one of 20 is that ridiculous game for him. I’m waiting for it.
Reason 4: Miami cannot defend
PGs. Rondo is wonderful but his effect on the game is passing and penetration,
not actually scoring 44 points in a game. Miami made him look even better than
he was. I have no idea what Westbrook is going to do to them. And if the Heat
switch Wade on Westbrook, Harden torches Rio.
Reason 5: The difference in bench
contribution is tremendous. On one hand the Heat built around their superstars
by getting old backup swingmen and burnt out big men. It isn’t working, and
Lebron/Wade are (successfully) covering for the problems of their bench. The
Thunder, however, are able to cover for the sometimes erratic jump shooting
that can be their downfall by tremendous role player contributions. Collison,
Cook, Fisher all have impact on games, and if you count Harden as a bench
player, the advantage is overwhelmingly in the Thunder’s favor. The Celtics
also had a weak bench, so the disparity wasn’t shown in the ECF. That won’t be
the case this time. The Heat have been pushing their stars hard, and it has to
come back to bite them sometime.
Reason 6: Personnel matchup. Perhaps
more than any other team, the Thunder have the correct personnel to guard the
Heat. Durant will give a good attempt at Lebron, but Thabo, Westbrook, and
Harden will have Wade covered no matter how they need to cover him (size,
speed, or craftiness). Perkins gets his shot at stopping the end of Lebron’s
drives, a phantom Celtic having an impact one last time on Lebron. They can
switch pretty much everything, Ibaka has got Bosh handled (I await some weak
jumpers by Bosh getting rejected in his face at least once a game), and in
general there are options for what they can do.
Reason 7: Comparison by
competition. The Heat beat a depleted and frankly bad Knicks team, a
not-quite-there Pacer team with no star, and a banged up Celtic team that took
them 7 games to finish. The Thunder beat the last 3 Western Conference Champions
in the Mavs, Lakers, and Spurs. Those three teams have won 10 of the last 13
titles. The Thunder earned their spot, and looked good in taking those teams
out. Moreover, those teams seemed to really respect how good the Thunder are,
and be genuinely supportive after those series were over. If their opponents
this post season speak accurately to how good the Heat and Thunder truly are,
this will be an easy victory for the Thunder.
The only surprise I’ll submit
is that Westbrook may push Durant for MVP rights. He’s due for a breakout
series, and this is the perfect set up for Russell. Durant will win the Bill
Russell trophy…that is how these things work with the superstar getting it no matter
what. But Westbrook’s matchup is awesome, and I can see him pushing Durant for
it.
Let the Thunder’s reign begin!
BLISS
