Conference Finals
It is hard to imagine that without the Spurs, Celtics, or Lakers the Conference Finals could be that exciting. If I told you that none of the Cinderella teams made it either (Memphis, Atlanta), and you’d say we’d probably be heading for another Piston-like championship with low TV ratings. Not so this year.
In the West, we have Dirk going for his ring with the dominating Mavs against the rising Kevin Durant, gold medal winning darling of America. In the East we have the MVP and Coach of the Year versus the Heatles and their parade, with perhaps the two most athletically talented players in the whole league.
In the playoffs overall we still have the top 3 players (Durant, Lebron, Wade), the hardest to defend (Dirk), and the MVP (Rose). We have a ton of young talent (Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Rose, Noah) and many established vets looking for that career crowning championship ring (Dirk, Terry, Kidd, Marion, Peja, Bibby, Juwan Howard, Big Z). This will be fun.
The Matchup: Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Storyline: Such an intriguing series. A year or a month ago I would have told you I would take the Thunder. I am not sure who covers Durant from the Mavs. Of course, I said that about Kobe too. But now some things have changed. First, the Mavs have a great combination of being both hot and rested. They have a ton of talent. Jeff Green would have been a great matchup for Dirk, and now he’s gone. The Thunder are tired and barely got through Memphis. With respect to the Grizz, it shouldn’t have taken them 7 games to win that series. And the Mavs took out the Champs in 4.
I also think the Mavs will be able to entice Russell Westbrook to do the same thing they enticed Kobe to do: see 40 pts written all over Jason Kidd’s face and forget about everyone else for a while. This is the first issue for the Thunder. The second is that I have no idea who covers Dirk. Ibaka is nice, but I don’t know about that. And I love Nick Collison, but any minutes he plays against Dirk or even Tyson Chandler he will get killed in. The third issue is perhaps the biggest: Kendrick Perkins is nearly useless here. Dirk can out-quick him but more importantly, the Mavs play with jump shooters and Tyson Chandler barely ever touching the ball offensively. Perkins is negated in that equation.
The Pick: Mavs in 5. Probably not a surprise considering my previous paragraph but this should be short and decisive. To win, the Thunder would have to channel a ton of 35 points games out of Durant, and even then it may not matter.
I am staying with my pick of Dallas to win the Finals, and will further say that the West will be taking the title this year, no matter if OKC could pull the upset. I like both teams that much more over the remaining East teams.
The Matchup: Chicago Bulls vs. Miami HEAT
The Storyline: 1 v 2. As much as Celtics-HEAT was exciting, this is almost better. The Bulls are young, built through the draft and able to grow together, and play well as a team. They have clearly defined player roles, a great defensive scheme and offensive order. Their coach is consistent and a perfect mix of youth and experience. The Bulls are rough, tough, and will hit you in the mouth.
The HEAT, well, I almost don’t need to say it. Athletic, exciting, cruising at the right time, Wade going for another ring and establishing a claim to best current player. Lebron trying to shake his demons and make himself rise above the title of “best athletic player”, which at this point is almost said as an insult to his clutch skills and leadership (for good reason).
The Pick: HEAT in 6. They are more athletic, the Bulls don’t seem to have 5th gear, and Rose is nicked up more than we think. The HEAT will close it out at home. The key as so many are saying is Boozer. If Boozer throws up a 18-12 in the series, they can and probably will win. But I just don’t believe in him, and thus, HEAT.
The Bulls are in a tough position as they desperately need Kyle Korver’s shooting. But Wade will burn him, so Brewer has to play. But that puts pressure on Rose to score even more, leading to yet more offensive inefficiency out of him. So I think the HEAT pull this out. But, I hope I am wrong.
And yes, I know these picks lead up to a Mavs-HEAT 2006 rematch, which I expect Dallas to win (just like the last time should have gone). And nothing would make me happier.
BLISS
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