NFL 2012 Week 4 Predictions

Well, that went badly. I am still above .500, but only just barely. Time to make a run past .625.

Falcons -7 over Panthers, 31-17

-Seems like a good place to start. Why this is 7 I don’t know. By all rights Atlanta should light them up. Cam can only do so much and Atlanta’s defense is quietly taking care of business while the offense gets the publicity.

Pats -4.5 over Bills, 31-20

-Recent news about Rob Gronkowski’s hip is a little disturbing, but there is no way this Patriots team can A. go 1-3, B. keep sputtering offensively like they have, or C. keep the awkwardness of the Wes Welker situation going. Unfortunately, I think that while the first two things are handled, the third will be solved by Welker getting traded. The Sports Guy’s prediction of Welker going to Seattle actually sounds scarily appropriate. I really hope not though. Pats start a 9 game winning streak here (somewhat based on talent but look at that schedule. The Rams and Dolphins feature prominently). Why this is 4.5 in the Vegas Zone I have no clue, jump on a rare Pats line not versus the Packers, Giants, Ravens, or Steelers that isn’t above 7.

Chiefs +1.5 over Chargers, 24-23

Because they are at Arrowhead. Because Norv Turner is involved. Because team ACL (KC’s new nickname, due to all the players just turning it on after ACL injuries in previous years) is finally alive. And because Atlanta exposed SD’s defense as not actually being great.

Seahawks -3 over Rams, 16-10

-Ugh, unwatchable slugfest. Seattle just wins because that defense is so good. And because no Rams’ draft picks on the OL have worked out since Orlando Pace. 3.5 would be dangerous, stay away. Lynch has a good fantasy day here.

Niners -4.5 over Jets, 20-9

-Because the NFC better than AFC? I don’t have a great pulse on this, so I am going with the conference thing. Sanchez can just be made to look terrible, and that Bills’ game is going to be a big aberration before this year is done in relationship to how it presented the Jets offense. Niners come out angry in this one.

Texans -12 over Titans, 24-10

-A “take care of business” game. Wait, I said that last week for the Vikings-Niners game? Well, this time I mean it. Chris Johnson’s nightmare season doesn’t reorient itself here.

Raiders +7 over Broncos, 27-20

-WAY too many points here. In fact I’ll just take the upset. See, the Raiders do it all ugly. Win ugly. Lose ugly. Snap the ball to punters ugly. But at the end of the game, Palmer has numbers, McFadden has affected the game in a positive way, and Lechler and Seabass have kicked the ball over 55 yards once each. And at least the Raiders know who they are (Tommy Kelly aside). Peyton doesn’t yet know that his current level of arm strength best suits him for a role with the Colts, Broncos, Titans, or Volunteers…as the offensive coordinator.

Cards -6 over Fins, 23-10

-Love my Cards, hate Tannehill. Cards made Vick and Brady look human. Imagine what they do to this sad offensive arrangement. Fitzgerald goes OFF. Kevin Kolb goes 4-0, the Mayans grin.

-Best Eliminator Pick

Bengals -2.5 over Jaguars, 24-13

-Yeah, the Bengals are at minimum decently good, and the Jaguars are at best mediocre. No last minute miracles here. Big game by AJ Green though, and I have a suspicion MoJo gets corralled.

-2^nd Best Eliminator Pick

Bucs -2.5 over Racial Slurs, 27-17

-Washington is starting to crumble as predicted, with the injuries to that team really taking a toll. And if Tampa Bay had some play calling from this century, they’d have a better record, and definitively would have beaten the Cowboys. Bucs finally breakout on offense and win this one solidly. Feels like time for a random 7 for 185 and 2 TDs from Vincent Jackson, right?

Packers -7.5 over Saints, 52-24

-I predict one of the biggest “eff you” games ever from the Packers and a ridiculous scoring output. Consider: A. the injustice of last week, B. the breakout that is coming from the Packers offensively, C. the result of this matchup last season, and D. the directions of both teams.

For point A, I think it is just a case of the Packers being pissed off, but because the coaching staff is so good it will be focused instead of a detriment. For point B, they have played the Seahawks, Bears, and Niners while missing Greg Jennings (injury) and Jermichael Finley (hands), and incorporating Cedric Benson into the fold. That is three awesome pass defenses, and a tough schedule overall. Point C is just a reference, but we know how big Saints/Packers games go, versus each other and other similar opponents. Point D, well, put it this way: New Orleans lost to Washington, Carolina, and Kansas City. For all three of those teams, their win over the Saints is their only one, the aberration in their thus far unsatisfactory seasons. The Packers, like the Patriots, have “good” losses.

Finally, not sure the Saints are going to put up a ton of garbage time points and yards. Green Bay, after being historically the worst passing defense ever last year, are quietly number 1 in that department this year. Just saying…

Giants +1.5 over Eagles, 33-16

-Put records and feelings aside. The Giants are champs, know the formula to beat the Eagles, and are trending upwards. They are getting healthier and working new parts into an already prime system. The Eagles choke in big games, are prone to going on multi-week slides, are getting more and more hurt, and Mike Vick has 11 turnovers in 3 games. If the Bengals and Cards didn’t exist, this would be my Eliminator game.

Bears +3.5 over Cowboys, 27-22

Ware on J’Marcus Webb could be ugly, but that’s about all I am afraid of in this one. Cowboys kick too many field goals and get victimized on special teams or defense. The preceding sentence was both a fact and prediction. Cutler and crew get enough done on offense to secure a victory.

I got laughed at a bit for my Bears over Ravens Super Bowl pick, and yeah it doesn’t look like the best thing ever. But my point remains true: The Bears last year were playing some of the best football before Forte and Cutler got hurt. They remain the same on special teams and defense from then, and by any measure got better on offense by replacing Roy Williams with Brandon Marshall. And while it hasn’t been pretty, that defense has been dominant. Even in that Packers “blowout”, they allowed one significant drive for a TD (Packers scored another TD on a fake field goal). They shut the Rams and Colts down hard. Just saying, I am not jumping away from my Bears pick, even if Monday night doesn’t see them perform well. I continue to believe.

Note: next week will begin my top and bottom 5 rankings, as I like to get at least 4 weeks worth of data before doing those. See you then, happy football.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 7-6

By Spread: 8-5

Record this year:

Straight Up: 25-18

By Spread: 22-20

Record last year:

Straight Up: 144-66

By Spread: 111-95

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 414-215
By Spread: 342-293

MIKE