NFL 2012 Week 20 Predictions: Championship Weekend

I went 1-3 heads up and 3-1 against the spread last week. Read that again, and tell me it doesn’t mean I have a real problem in how I am starting to see things. That doesn’t even make sense. I’ll take it, but still. Jeez.

Only two games this week, and only 3 left in the season. Both should be good though, and nicely feature opposing styles of play. For things looking toward the future, right now the AFC is -2.5 over the NFC in the Superbowl. Just saying. Speculating, you could say. 

NFC Title Game – Falcons +5.5 over Niners, 24-22

-The Niners are probably better. I’ll admit that I’m mostly doing this for the points, because in a hotly contested NFC title game, 5.5 is just too much to ignore. But Atlanta does have quite a few things going for them. SF has to travel East, Atlanta is so good at home, and the Niners do have a QB that has fewer than 10 starts EVER going against a solid vet off his breakthrough playoff win. Matt Ryan is actually in a very similar place to where Peyton was in 2006, when he finally advanced to the Superbowl.

The Seahawks nearly beat the Falcons, and I fully believe Seattle is better than SF (as evidenced by the beatdown served by the ‘Hawks a few weeks ago). So yeah, I’m rolling with Atlanta here. And the biggest reasons why are: A. Justin Smith still isn’t healthy and B. Seattle could cover Roddy and Julio for the most part and still couldn’t win, but SF won’t even come close. Gonzalez is neutralized, but the receivers won’t be and Atlanta (gulp) goes to the Superbowl.

AFC Title Game – Ravens +9.5 over Pats, 27-31

-Calm down, all my NE friends. It is just a cover. These teams play it way too close most times to lay 9.5 with any confidence. The Patriots are by far the healthier team (they are missing Gronk sure, but I think that Ravens missing Webb and having Yanda, Lewis, Suggs, and Ellerbe slowed by injuries are in worse shape). The Pats are at home having played one game versus a non physical foe. The Ravens haven’t had a break, and played two playoffs games to get here including a double OT freezing cold game in Denver then flying to Foxboro. Much respect to the Ravens, and I am giving them a cover here, but I just don’t see Brady losing this game.

It is simple. The Pats beat the Ravens (barely) last year in the playoffs. The Pats are better now (because of Talib, Hightower, Chandler Jones, and Dennard). The Ravens are about the same, I guess, just minus Webb and Ray Rice 2012 seems about 95% of Ray Rice 2011. The Ravens beat NE (barely) 4 months ago but we are a better team now due to experience for the younger players, while the Ravens have been on a downward turn. And remember, Brady, the winningest QB in playoff history, at home, where he is dominant. Yup, close win but Ravens cover. And no one is allowed to say “Bernard Karmell Pollard”.

Record last week:

Straight Up: 1-3

By Spread: 3-1

Record this year:

Straight Up: 144-80

By Spread: 115-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 533-277
By Spread: 440-376