2013 NBA Playoffs Round 3

The first few rounds are relatively easy: 1 vs 8 SHOULD be an simple call 99% of the time. The second round gets a little harder but normally you see something in round 1 that shows you something about each team, however small or large. The Spurs were going to beat the Dubs because Mark Jackson's team couldn't execute, especially late in games. The Bulls were too beat up to win. The Pacers were a more solid bunch than the Knicks' newly embraced ISO ugly offense. And the Thunder lost Westbrook.

But these Conference Finals have trimmed the excess and are only bringing the best to play. I am going to use this piece to logic myself to some conclusions. We will have to see if they make sense.

W2. Spurs versus W4. Grizzlies
This is extremely tough, and should be fantastic series. I am hoping for a long and healthy one, as the matchup has several juicy potential points. These teams are very different. The Spurs are efficient, quick, sabermetric, well rounded, have a deep bench, and have all the experience in the world. They have three stars who have done this year after year, and a young stud ready to make his name known.

The Grizz are what San Antonio used to be: Grit and Grind, slow it down, two big guys and a point guard, with an erratic but fiery backup guard off the bench. They even have the starting wing player no one likes (Tony Allen) similar to what Spurs had (Bruce Bowen).

Funny enough, both teams excel at long series, but for differing reasons. San Antonio makes adjustments so well. We saw it in the last round: the Spurs were lucky get a split in the first two games but then schemed around what Curry and Klay were doing and thoroughly dominated them over the next 4 games.

The Grizz love long series because of their Grit and Grind mentality. They wear you down, and by games 4-6 they have bruised you physically and struck mentally as well. See Clippers, Blake Griffin.

So how does one determine this series? Tony Parker and Marc Gasol are pretty much making the "best player in the series wins it" theory a jump ball. Home court isn't going to be crazy important here either. Pop is better than Hollins sure, but this isn't a Pop versus Vinny del Negro or Scottie Brooks type situation.

It came down to this: I think Parker dominates Conley more than any Memphis big can dominate a matchup with Splitter, who if healthy is going to be competent there. But more jmportantly, Manu is going to rock Bayless in this. I have zero trust in Bay less being consistent, especially defensively. Spurs win in 7, on the strength on their superior execution, bench play, and strength on the wings. I'll take Manu/Leonard/Green/Neal over Bayless/Prince/Allen.



E1. HEAT versus E3. Pacers

-There is a legit case to be made that the Pacers can do this. They match up well, with talent across the board. I trust Lance, George, and Hill to rotate through Wade and Lebron. David West and Roy Hibbert may literally eat Bosh for lunch.

But, the HEAT will play a stretch four enough to negate some of the inside strength of the Pacers, and the HEAT's bench will vastly outproduce Gerald Green, DJA, and Psycho T.

Sadly, HEAT in 6. Tyler Hansborough terrifies me. He's entering Kendrick Perkins area. But more than anything else, the Pacers' tendency for turnovers and not scoring for stretches makes this a win for Miami. Ugh, I feel dirty.



I guess I still have a HEAT over Spurs Finals, though begrudgingly. The Spurs could win that, but if they survive Memphis it will be with bumps and bruises. A lot would depend on health at that point, for Wade too.