NFL 2015 Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Week 18 Predictions: Wild Card Weekend

Texans +3.5 over Chiefs, HOU SU

-A couple of reasons here: 

1. JJ Watt being fully healthy is a game changing. Justin Houston not being fully healthy is impactful. 

2. Brian Hoyer being healthy makes a big difference. Jeremy Maclin being banged up make a huge difference. 

3. I trust Bill O'Brien, even in the playoffs. In no way do I trust Andy Reid. Especially in the playoffs. 

4. At home, getting 3.5 points? I know KC is on a roll, but look at that schedule. Texans have had a tougher road to get here. 

Bengals +2.5 over Steelers, CIN SU

-Second time here, I'm taking the points. It may become a theme. The Steelers are that team that "no one wants to play" but there are now expanding holes in that argument. First, the Steelers have these mental hiccups every three weeks or so. Second, Tomlin hasn't been a good coach or had playoff success in about 5 years now. Third, Ben turns into a turkey every fifth game or so, and has had some curious decisionmaking down the stretch that makes me question what exactly his injury status is. Fourth, the running game is in a bad place for the Steelers with Deangelo out. Time for Cincy to drop all the linebackers, every play, and see Pittsburgh try to win it all going deep. Maybe they can. More likely, Cincy's offense dinks and dunks, each back gets close to 18 touches each, and AJ torches them as per usual. In AJ I trust. 

Vikings +4.5 over Seahawks, SEA SU

-I am taking Seattle to win, don't get me wrong. But the Vikings have exactly the type of team to copy the Rams blueprint and smash Seattle in the mouth. If it becomes a shootout, the Rams don't have a chance. But if it is kept close, and the Vikings can occasionally hit receivers down the seem and between the numbers deep, they can cover and even perhaps win. 

Packers +1.5 over Ethnic Slurs, GB SU

-Respect to Washington for a pretty good regular season. Ditto to Kirk Cousins. However, this isn't the regular season. I know Green Bay has looked bad at times. So has Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy. But I still trust them over untested Cousins and Jay Gruden. Green Bay isn't afraid of the road, won't have issues with weather, and has the best QB on the planet (yes, still). James Jones has an old man game, and somehow grits out 8 for 80 and 2 TDs. Rodgers makes two or three "Aaron Rodgers!" plays and they advance. 

Record last week:

Straight Up: 8-6

By Spread: 5-9

Record this year:

Straight Up: 134-85

By Spread: 114-103

Lifetime record:
Straight Up: 929-509
By Spread: 759-665